VII-LM - AD-AS -Equilibria-5 Flashcards
货币需求分类
- transaction demand
- precautionary demand
- speculative demand
前两者与Y有关(正)，为流动性需求
后者与r有关（负），为投资性需求
Money Demand and Supply
in chart
quantity theory of money
equation
MV=PY
M: nominal money supply
V: velocity of money
P: price level
Y: real income/expenditure/output
PY=nominal value of output
LM curve equation
real MS = MD
MS(norminal) / P= L1 (Y) + L2 (r)
MS(norminal) / P 视为常数不变，仅等式右边内部变动
L1: transaction & precautionery need
L2: speculative need
MS/P 代表什么
实际货币供给
实际=名义/价格水平
LM curve
分析
- 是什么：关于货币市场均衡。MS=MD
- 表达关系：Y与r的正向关系 ： L1 (Y) + L2 (r) = Mnorminal / P常数
- 移动：movement along: r
shift: 货币供给，价格水平
结论：只有货币政策能影响LM曲线平移
AD curve
in chart
AD curve
与
LM curve
的联系
AD curve
是
价格水平变化时，
LM curve
在IS curve上的移动轨迹
AD曲线的分析
- 是什么： IS-LM曲线的一系列交点，商品市场与货币市场都达到均衡状态
Y = C + I + G + (X - M)
Ms / P = L1 (Y) + L2 (r)
- 关系： P价格水平与Y real income之间的反向关系
- 影响因素： movement along: P
shift: 一切影响IS、LM曲线平移的因素：fiscal/monetary policy, household wealth, consumer/business expectation, capacity utilization, global economy, exchange rate
AD曲线
P与Y的关系
推导（逻辑推导）
解读总需求曲线的三种方式
- wealth effect
- savings/interest rate effect
- foreign exchange effect
what makes an AD curve
flatter?
- investment expenditure highly sensitive to interest rate
- saving insensitive to income (consumption sensitive to income)
- money demand insensitive to interest rates
- money demand insensitive to income (income sensitive to money demand)
不同因素引起AD curve平移时，
Interest rate如何变动
- 货币供应（货币政策）增加，r降低
- 其余因素引起AD右移，r增加
此时reduce the demand for money at each level of expenditure/income and, therefore, allows expenditure/income to increase without an increase in the money supply, velocity of money 上升
Y=MV
When AD curve gets flatter, it means
the monetary policy
is more effective, because an increased M has greater impact on Y
AS Curve
in chart
LRAS curve 特点
- 垂直，弹性为0
- 在Y轴上的固定值，即potential GDP (所有capacity都用上时的最大产出)，此时full employment (但不代表没有失业)
SRAS curve 特点及成因
- P与Y总产出正相关
- 原因：工资粘性。 P上升 – norminal wage不变 – real wage下降 – 生产成本下降 – 扩大生产 – Y上升
使SRAScurve平移的因素
cost:
- nominal wages
- input prices,
- taxes and subsidies
- exchange rate
- future expectation of price level(相对概念)
+LONG RUN FACTORS
使LRAS平移的因素
Productivity:
human capital (education)
supply of physical capital
technology
supply of labor (pupolation)
supply of natural resources
分析in chart:
货币政策短期内增加总产出，但长期内对产出无影响只推高价格水平
GDP的四种均衡水平
long-run equilibrium
recessionary gap
inflationary gap
stagflation
GDP long-run equilibrium
chart
equilibrium GDP=potential GDP
GDP equilibrium - recessionary gap
chart, characteristics and solution
caractor:
- equilibrium GDP below potential GDP
- 总需求不足
solution:
- auto mechanism （新古典主义）: decrease in price leads to increase in real purchasing power, pushing AS right
- Gov interference: 扩大支出，推动AD right
GDP equilibrium - inflationary gap
chart, character, solution
character: 1.SR equilibrium GDP above potential GDP
2. 总需求过热
solution:
- auto mechanisim: higher wages, higher costs, AS shifts left
- GOV: fiscal/减少支出，增税。monetary/减少货币供给，加息
GDP equilibrium - stagflation
chart, character, solution
Character: supply shock, 总供给减少，生产倒退价格通胀
solution: GOV (dilemma)
1. 增加开支，减税， 推动AD right – more inflation
2. 货币：减少供应，加息， – further recession
How to interpret “GDP per capita”
Productivity.
how much output can be produced by one unit of labor
in recessionary gap, investment strategy:
1cyclical companies
2commodities
3defensive companies
4fixed income
5speculative equity
- ↓，earning↓
- ↓，price↓，profit↓
- ↑，modest decline
4↑，interest rate↓
5.↓，low credit quality ratings↓
in inflationary gap, investment strategy:
- cyclical companies
- defensive companies
- commodities
- fixed income
- ↑，earnings↑
- ↓，增长太慢
- ↑，earnings↑
- ↓，interest rate↑
in stagflation, investment strategy:
- fixed income
- equity securities
- commodities
- AS↑回来
- ↓，interest rate↑
- ↓，output declines，profit squeezed
- ↑，price likely to rise
- commodities↓，其余↑
In stagflaiton, how dose the economy reach equilibirum again
by itself?
in stagflation, the reduction in output and employment put downward pressure on wages and input prices, and shift AS curve back to right, without change in price level
+
demand driven expansion
supply driven expansion
之下， inflation 和 利率r 如何？
=
inflation↑，r↑
inflation↓，r↓
sources of economic growth
human capital
physical capital
technology
labor supply
natural resources
其中labor: total hours worked = labor forceXaverage hours worked per worker
if wages were automatically adjusted for changes in the price level,
the SRAS curve would most likely be:
steeper
