X-monetary/fiscal policy-5 Flashcards
3 functions of money
medium of exchange
measure of value
storing wealth
money multiplier equation
money multiplier = 1/reserve rate
money created = new deposit X money multiplier
解释money neutrality
MV = PY
1.M供给量的增长导致P价格水平同比例增长，
不影响总产出和换手速度 (认为是恒定的)
- monetarists 据此认为可通过控制货币供应量来控制物价和通胀水平
- 长期来看，货币中性是正确的（千克的例子），货币量不决定产出水平，只影响价格水平，但短期会影响产出，因此现实中的货币政策也是看重短期效应
Fisher Effect
equation
及结论
Rnom = Rreal + πe
Rreal: real economic growth
expected inflation rate
结论：money neutrality, 货币供应不影响实际利率，但通过改变未来通胀预期来影响名义利率
Fisher Effect equation
improved version
nominal interest rate =
required real return +
expected inflation +
risk premium
Central bank’s
7 roles
- monopoly supplier of currency
- banker to the gov and other bank
- lender of last resort
- regulator/supervisor of the payments system
- conductor of monetary policy
- supervisor of the banking system
- manage foreign reserve
objectives of the Central Bank
- Maintain price stability through target inflation
- economic growth
- full employment
- maintain exchange rate stability through foreign reserves
- moderate long-term interest rates
央行货币政策三大工具
- open market operations （最常用）
央行买债券–扩张，卖债券–紧缩
- official policy rate
下降 – 商业银行融资成本低，释放流动性 – 扩张
上升 – 商业银行融资成本高，收紧流动性 – 紧缩
- official reserve requirements
降低–扩张，升高–紧缩
Official Policy rate in
US
EU
UK
- US: Federal Funds rate – 商业银行间隔夜拆借利率
- EU: Refinancing rates 再贴现率，商行向央行借钱利率
- UK: Repo （short-term collateralized lending rate）商行间回购
neutral rate of interest （含义）
equation
含义：an interest rate that nither spurs on nor slows down the economy
中性利率 = Trend growth + Inflation target
policy rate > neutral rate: contradictionary
policy rate < neutral rate: expansionary
货币政策的传导的3 steps
和4个渠道
- policy rate降低，interest rate 降低；
- 导致债券、股票、资产价格上升
- wealth effect：减少savings, 增加expenditure – output上升
- foreign exchange effect: 本币贬值，净出口增加
渠道：market rates, asset prices, exchange rate, expectations/confidence
构建effective central bank
三要素
independence
credibility
transparency
若一国央行选择以钉住外汇为目标，则
国内经济活动需要调整以适应，
本国利率、货币供给均容易产生波动
同时也相当于引入了钉住国的通胀率
货币政策的局限性
1.传导机制失灵 （债券市场巡视员）
货币政策只能影响短期利率，而真正影响实体经济的是长期利率。通过短期利率传导至长期利率的过程不确定(如：央行认为有通胀压力，释放流动性，推高短期利率，意在推高长期利率减少经济活动，但债券市场认为短期利率太高了，expectation导致长期利率不升反降，刺激经济活动，得到相反结果)
- 通缩时期 （流动性陷阱）
解决方式：量化宽松
definition: liquidity trap
happens in deflation
demand for money infinitely elastic,
银行惜贷
people willing to hold money regardless of interest rate
injections of money no help to further lower interest rate
additional challenges in Monetary Policy
in developing countries
- lack of independence
- lack of credibility
- hard to ascertain the trend growth
- absense of mature bond market
- financial innovation resulting in changes in money supply definition
货币政策难以实现的终极原因是什么
The transmission of a central bank’s policy rate action through the economy ultimately affects:
- CB cannot control 居民和企业存多少钱
- CB cannot control 银行愿意放多少贷款
- inflation
财政政策的目标
- economic activities, 调节经济发展和总需求水平
- Redistributing wealth财富和收入的再分配
- Reallocating resources在经济各部门中进行资源配置
挤出效应
crowding out effect
too much gov borrowing crowd out private sector investment;
limited amount of savings on investment lead to higher interest rate
fiscal policy tool -
spending
&
revenue
SPENDING
transfer payments
current gov spending
capital expenditure
REVENUE
direct taxes
indirec taxes
fiscal policy tool -
current gov spending 和
capital investment
分别影响什么？
- 经常性支出：country’s skill level (human capital) and labor productivity
- 资本投资：capital stock资本累积，
productive potential
税收政策的理想标准
simplicity
efficiency (不影响经济活动)
fairness
revenue sufficiency (注意与前两条的冲突)
fiscal tools -
advantages & disadvantages
advantage:
indirect tax 调控部分商品的消费，快速精准
disadvantage
direct taxes 调整慢
capital spending 实施慢，发挥效应滞后
gov budget surplus/deficit =
equation
G+B-T
B: transfer payment
