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Economics & Market > X-monetary/fiscal policy-5 > Flashcards

X-monetary/fiscal policy-5 Flashcards

1
Q

3 functions of money

A

medium of exchange

measure of value

storing wealth

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2
Q

money multiplier equation

A

money multiplier = 1/reserve rate

money created = new deposit X money multiplier

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3
Q

解释money neutrality

A

MV = PY

1.M供给量的增长导致P价格水平同比例增长，

不影响总产出和换手速度 (认为是恒定的)

  1. monetarists 据此认为可通过控制货币供应量来控制物价和通胀水平
  2. 长期来看，货币中性是正确的（千克的例子），货币量不决定产出水平，只影响价格水平，但短期会影响产出，因此现实中的货币政策也是看重短期效应
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4
Q

Fisher Effect

equation

及结论

A

Rnom = Rreal + πe

Rreal: real economic growth

expected inflation rate

结论：money neutrality, 货币供应不影响实际利率，但通过改变未来通胀预期来影响名义利率

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5
Q

Fisher Effect equation

improved version

A

nominal interest rate =

required real return +

expected inflation +

risk premium

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6
Q

Central bank’s

7 roles

A
  1. monopoly supplier of currency
  2. banker to the gov and other bank
  3. lender of last resort
  4. regulator/supervisor of the payments system
  5. conductor of monetary policy
  6. supervisor of the banking system
  7. manage foreign reserve
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7
Q

objectives of the Central Bank

A
  1. Maintain price stability through target inflation
  2. economic growth
  3. full employment
  4. maintain exchange rate stability through foreign reserves
  5. moderate long-term interest rates
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8
Q

央行货币政策三大工具

A
  1. open market operations （最常用）

央行买债券–扩张，卖债券–紧缩

  1. official policy rate

下降 – 商业银行融资成本低，释放流动性 – 扩张

上升 – 商业银行融资成本高，收紧流动性 – 紧缩

  1. official reserve requirements

降低–扩张，升高–紧缩

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9
Q

Official Policy rate in

US

EU

UK

A
  1. US: Federal Funds rate – 商业银行间隔夜拆借利率
  2. EU: Refinancing rates 再贴现率，商行向央行借钱利率
  3. UK: Repo （short-term collateralized lending rate）商行间回购
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10
Q

neutral rate of interest （含义）

equation

A

含义：an interest rate that nither spurs on nor slows down the economy

中性利率 = Trend growth + Inflation target

policy rate > neutral rate: contradictionary

policy rate < neutral rate: expansionary

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11
Q

货币政策的传导的3 steps

和4个渠道

A
  1. policy rate降低，interest rate 降低；
  2. 导致债券、股票、资产价格上升
  3. wealth effect：减少savings, 增加expenditure – output上升
  4. foreign exchange effect: 本币贬值，净出口增加

渠道：market rates, asset prices, exchange rate, expectations/confidence

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12
Q

构建effective central bank

三要素

A

independence

credibility

transparency

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13
Q

若一国央行选择以钉住外汇为目标，则

A

国内经济活动需要调整以适应，

本国利率、货币供给均容易产生波动

同时也相当于引入了钉住国的通胀率

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14
Q

货币政策的局限性

A

1.传导机制失灵 （债券市场巡视员）

货币政策只能影响短期利率，而真正影响实体经济的是长期利率。通过短期利率传导至长期利率的过程不确定(如：央行认为有通胀压力，释放流动性，推高短期利率，意在推高长期利率减少经济活动，但债券市场认为短期利率太高了，expectation导致长期利率不升反降，刺激经济活动，得到相反结果)

  1. 通缩时期 （流动性陷阱）

解决方式：量化宽松

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15
Q

definition: liquidity trap

A

happens in deflation

demand for money infinitely elastic,

银行惜贷

people willing to hold money regardless of interest rate

injections of money no help to further lower interest rate

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16
Q

additional challenges in Monetary Policy

in developing countries

A
  1. lack of independence
  2. lack of credibility
  3. hard to ascertain the trend growth
  4. absense of mature bond market
  5. financial innovation resulting in changes in money supply definition
17
Q

货币政策难以实现的终极原因是什么

The transmission of a central bank’s policy rate action through the economy ultimately affects:

A
  1. CB cannot control 居民和企业存多少钱
  2. CB cannot control 银行愿意放多少贷款
  3. inflation
18
Q

财政政策的目标

A
  • economic activities, 调节经济发展和总需求水平
  • Redistributing wealth财富和收入的再分配
  • Reallocating resources在经济各部门中进行资源配置
19
Q

挤出效应

A

crowding out effect

too much gov borrowing crowd out private sector investment;

limited amount of savings on investment lead to higher interest rate

20
Q

fiscal policy tool -

spending

&

revenue

A

SPENDING

transfer payments

current gov spending

capital expenditure

REVENUE

direct taxes

indirec taxes

21
Q

fiscal policy tool -

current gov spending 和

capital investment

分别影响什么？

A
  • 经常性支出：country’s skill level (human capital) and labor productivity
  • 资本投资：capital stock资本累积，

productive potential

22
Q

税收政策的理想标准

A

simplicity

efficiency (不影响经济活动)

fairness

revenue sufficiency (注意与前两条的冲突)

23
Q

fiscal tools -

advantages & disadvantages

A

advantage:

indirect tax 调控部分商品的消费，快速精准

disadvantage

direct taxes 调整慢

capital spending 实施慢，发挥效应滞后

24
Q

gov budget surplus/deficit =

equation

A

G+B-T

B: transfer payment

25
Q

fiscal multiplier equation

A

1 / 1 - MPC (1-t)

t=net tax rate

边际消费倾向越高，税率越低，乘数效应越大

26
Q

balanced budget multiplier

推导

A

平衡预算乘数

政府增加税收来平衡增加的开支

增加开支带动的总需求增加

大于

增加税收带来的总需求减少（要乘以c）

减税部分*MPC*fiscal multiplier

27
Q

6 limitations of discretionary

fiscal policy

A
  1. lags (recognition, action, impact)
  2. crowding out effect (挤出投资，抬高利率)
  3. Ricardian Equivalence
  4. can’t do with supply shortage
  5. full imployment and inflation target不能同时
  6. full employment hard to identify
28
Q

explain

Ricardo equivalence

A

政府通过借债来增加赤字，相当于未来的税收。居民预计到未来税收增加，现阶段就会减少消费, 使财政政策对Y的影响不如预期

（若居民没有认识到，消费减少有限，则Y还是会增加）

29
Q

against gov deficit

argument

A
  1. higher future taxes - 生产积极性下降
  2. higher inflation (印钞解决债务攀升)
  3. 挤出效应
30
Q

pro deficit

arguments

A
  1. 债务由居民部门承担，那实现李嘉图等价即可
  2. 债务用于投资企业或human capital，那未来经济增长高于interest rate就可
  3. 赤字会推动税收改革
31
Q

看fiscal policy

active还是discretionary，

一个指标是

A

structual (cyclically adjusted) budget deficit

因为有automatic stabilizers存在

32
Q

在easy fiscal + 0 moneray policy下，

以下几种做法对GDP影响大小

gov direct spending

gov transfer payment to the poor

gov non-targeted transfer payment

labor tax reduction

A

gov direct spending >

gov transfer payment to the poor >

labor tax reduction >

gov non-targeted transfer payment

33
Q

想要potential GDP增长，

货币及财政政策该如何？

A

easy monetary policy

tight fiscal policy

(推动private sector占更大成分)

34
Q

Quantitative Easing

QE

can help the economy in which environment?

A

declining bank reserves

and

economic activity

(对流动性陷阱没用。提供再多money supply也没用)

Economics & Market (11 decks)

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