Week 3: Judgement, Decision-Making, and Cognitive Bias in a Post-Truth World

Question 1

What is a ‘Post-Truth’ World

Answer 1

A world in which intuition and ‘appeals of emotion’ are far more persuasive to the public, than evidenced truths.

Question 2

How might someone draw a conclusion suited to their beliefs?

Answer 2

By ‘cherry-picking’ evidence, and by selecting only the material which best suits their pre-existing beliefs. This called confirmation bias.

Question 3

When was the ‘Post-truth’ world first recognised?

Answer 3

Early 1990’s, blew up in 2016.

Question 4

The ‘post-truth’ world is perpetuated by which factors?

Answer 4

-Digital Technology proceeds us.
-Media’s approach in reporting to the public.
-Attitudes of professionals.
-The ‘nature of politics’ (most telling, as survival depends on persuasion)
-Authority referencing alternative facts.

Question 5

What is cognitive bias?

Answer 5

A systematic error in thinking that occurs when people are processing and interpreting information in the world around them, and affects the decisions and judgements that they make” (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). It helps in cognitive efficiency, enabling the path of least resistance, but it helps a little too well.

-Anchoring
-Confirmation
-Risk aversion/excessive risk appetite
-Attentional bias
-False consensus bias
-Misinformation effect

Question 6

What is ‘decision-making’

Answer 6

Although, ‘decisions refer to a conscious effort to choose.

Question 7

‘Political subordination of reality’ - Lee McIntyre Incentive in not telling the truth

Question 8

What is the difference between post-truth, lies and alternate truths.

Question 9

What is agnotology?

Question 10

What is the difference and relation between agnotology and the ‘post-truth world’?

Question 11

Politicians align themselves with being socially acceptable foremost, that is subjects the truth. This garners the most capacity for acceptability.

Question 12

Manufacturing to promotional economy

Question 13

Truths

Answer 13

The truth can be one of mayn proposed facts

Question 14

As government turned to a ‘post-truth’ approach, is was divided into what subdivisions?

Answer 14

Cultural experience and management

Question 15

An example of alternative facts?

Answer 15

Facetious: To unpalatably dismiss a serious issue, or fact.

Question 16

What is cognitive dissonance?

Answer 16

This reminds me of Freud’s ‘compromise’.

Significant discomfort occurs when confronted by conflict in our beliefs, behaviours and and attitudes. Thus, a change takes place to remove this discomfort. The cognitive ‘path of least resistance’.

Question 17

What does judgement consist of?

Answer 17

logical thinking and intuition

To make considered decisions and come to sensible conclusions.

Question 18

What can effect our judgement?

Answer 18

-Past experiences
-Personal qualities (self)
-Emotions
-Peers and ‘conformity effects’
-Deductive reasoning
-Cognitive biases

Question 19

Tversky & Kahneman (1974) devised two systems of thought, what are they?

Answer 19

The logical/attentive mind, which is associated with complex thought and voluntary thinking.

The intuitive/automatic mind, does most of the thinking but you are never consciously aware of it’s existence most times. Other names include ‘hidden autopilot’ or ‘stranger within’. Mistakes are often made by using this intuitive mind.

Almost like the somatic vs autonomic system…

Question 20

What are Likierman’s 6 elements of good judgement?

Answer 20

1. Learning (Listening attentively and read critically)
2. Trust (Seek diversity, not validation)
3. Experience (Make it relevant but not narrow)
4. Detachment (Identity, then challenge)
5. Options (Questions the solution set offered)
6. Delivery (Factor in the feasibility of execution)

Question 21

What is anchoring in cognitive bias?

Answer 21

Over-reliance on the first piece of information you are exposed to.

Question 22

What is attentional bias?

Answer 22

The tendency for your attention to be selective, it may consider somethings while ignoring the others.

Question 23

What is confirmation bias?

Answer 23

You may unintentionally seek information aligning with your pre-disposed beliefs, and simultaneously ignore other aspects.

Question 24

What is the ‘false consensus’ effect?

Answer 24

The misjudgment in assuming that others agree with your opinion.

Question 25

What is the ‘misinformation effect’?

Answer 25

When memory is confused with past-events, rather than the events that recently occured.

Question 26

What is the ‘availability heuristic’/recency effect?

Answer 26

The exposure of information forms our understanding. Over-preference for information fast recalled and easily available.