VUCA Flashcards
What does VUCA stand for?
Volatility
Uncertainty
Complexity
Ambiguity
What is Uncertainty?
PMBOK Definition
Uncertainty(p.119): Lack of undertraining and awareness of issues, events, paths to follow or solutions to pursue. Effects of any activity can’t be predicted, and range of outcomes can occur. Uncertainy leads to range of potential outcomes, including opps or threats. Both proj risks.
- Gather Information: Uncertainty can be reduced by finding out more info.
- Conducting research
- Engaging Experts
- Performing Market Analysis
- Important to know when further info collection/analysis exceed the benefit of having additional information.
- Prepare for Multiple Outcomes: In situation where there’s only a few possible outcomes from area of uncertainty, project can prepare for each of those outcomes. This entails:
- Having a Primary Solution as well as having a backup or contingency plans, incase initial solution not viable or effective
- When large set of multiple outcomes: Proj team can categorize and assess potential causes for each category, to estimate their likelihood of occurrence.
- This allows project team to ID the most likely outcomes on which to focus on.
- Set Based Design: Multiple design options or alternative options can be investigated early in project to reduce uncertainty.
- Rather than committing to a single solution too soon, team can investigate various alts to understand the tradeoffs and ID best possible solution.
- Allows Proj team to look at trade-offs of each design such as: Time vs cost, Quality vs cost, Risk vs Schedule, Schedule vs Quality
- The intention is to explore options so team can learn from working w/ various alternatives.
- Ineffective or sub-optimal alternatives are discarded throughout the process.
- Build in Resilience: Ability to adapt and resond quickly to unexpected changes.
- Resilience applies to both project team and org processes.
- If initial approach to product design or prototype is not effective, team and org need to be able to learn, adapt, and respond quickly.
PMBOK Defintion
What is Ambiguity?
PMBOK Def: p120
Ambiguity(p.120): A state of being unclear, having difficulty in identifying the cause of events, or having multiple options from which to choose. Hard to assess Reality. Hard to know what is going on and what we need to do to improve it.
* 2 types of ambiguity: Conceptual and situational
* Conceptual Amb: Lack of understanding-People using same words but different meaning
* Solved by: Define Terminology better and common rules
* Situational Amb: When more than one outcome is possible. Having multiple options to solve a problem. Solutions:
* Progressive Elaboration: Iterative process of increasing level of detail in project mgmt plan as more information and accurate estimates become available
* Experiments: A well designed series of experiments can help ID cause-and-effect relationships or at least can reduce ambiguity.
* Ex: Testing diff approaches on small scale before full implementation
* Prototypes: Can help distinguish/explore the relationship between different variables and outcomes, providing a tangible way to undersand potential solutions and their impacts.
What is Complexity?
Complexity: A characteristic of a program or project or it’s environment that is difficult to manage due to human behavior, system behavior, and ambiguity.
* Complexity exists when there are many interconnected influences that behave and interact in diverse ways.
* No way to make accurate predictions about likelihood of potential outcomes, or even knowing when outcomes might emerge.
* There are multiple ways to deal w/ Complexity: System Based, Reframing, and others based on process.
* System Based: Working w/ complexity in systems
* Decoupling: Disconnecting parts of system to simplify system and reduce number of connected variables.
* Determine how part of a system works on it’s own to reduce overall size of problem.
* Simulation: Might be similar unrelated scenario that can be used to simulate components of a system. Analagous
* Ex: Project to build a new airport can include area w/ shopping and restaurants, can learn about consumer buying habits by seeking analogous info on shopping malls and entertainment establishments.
* Reframing:
* Diversity: Look at complex system from different diverse POVs.
* Brainstorming w/ proj team to open up divergent ways of seeing the system.
* Can include Delphi Processes to move from divergent to convergent thinking.
* Balance: Balancing type of data used rather than only using forecast data or data that report on past, or lagging indicators provides broader perspective.
* Can include elements whose variations are likely to counteract each other’s potential negative effects.
* Process Based: Working w/ complexity that’s process based.
* Iterate: Build incrementally or iteratively. Add feature one at a time.
* After each feature ID what worked, didn’t work, customer reaction, and what team learned.(Retrospective)
* Engage: Build in Opps to get SH engagement.
* Reduces number of assumptions and build on learning and engagement into the process.
* Fail-Safe: For elements of a system that’s critical, build in redundancy or elements that can provide graceful degradation/failure of functionality in event of critical component failure.
Refer to other card on framework for complexity
What is the framework for complexity?
Frameworks for Complexity:
- Cynefin Framework: 5 frameworks used to Diagnose cause-and-effect relationships as decision making aid. Helps ID behaviors, such as probe-sensing, responding, acting, and categorizing, which help impact the relationships between variables and guide actions.
* Obvious Cause-Effect Relationsihp, use best practices to make decisions.
* Complicated Relationships: Set of known unknowns exist or range of right answers.- Best to: Assess facts, analyze situation, and apply good practices.
* Complex Relationships: Unknown Unknowns. No apparent cause and effect, no obvious right answers. - In this situation: We Probe environment, sense situation, respond w/ action.
- This style uses emergent practices that allows repeated cycles of probe-sense-respond as complex environments change in reaction to multiple stimuli, and what worked once might not be effective next time.
* Chaotic Env: Cause-Effect unclear. Too much confusion to wait to understand situation. - 1st step take action to try to stabilize situation, sense where there’s some stability, respond by taking steps to get the chaotic situation to complex
- Discorded relationships: Lacks clarity, may require breaking them into smaller parts, whose contexts link w/ one of the other four contexts(above)
- Best to: Assess facts, analyze situation, and apply good practices.
2.Stacey Complexity Matrix: Similar to Cynefin but has 2 dimensions to determine complexity
* Relative Uncertainty of Requirements
* Uncertainty of Technology to make deliverables
* Simple, complicated, complex, chaos
What are the 2 complexity model Frameworks and how do they differ?
Cyneframework(Snowden): 5 frameworks used to Diagnose cause-and-effect relationships as decision making aid. Helps ID behaviors, such as probe-sensing, responding, acting, and categorizing, which help impact the relationships between variables and guide actions.
a. Obvious Cause and effect relationships
b. Complicated
c. Complex
d. Chaotic
Staceys Complexity Model: Has 2 dimensions to analyze complexity;
1. Requirements uncertainty
2. Uncertainty of tehchnology to make deliverables
Determine which project approach best.
(Simple, Complicated, Complex, Chaos)
What is Volatility?
Volatility(p.122): The possibility for rapid and unpredictable change.
* Can occur with ongoing fluctuations in available skillsets(Hot job market), or materials.
* Volatility usually affects cost and schedule.
* Addressed by: Alt Analysis and Reserves
* Alternative Analysis: Finding and evaluating alternatives, such as looking for different ways to meet objective.
* Using different mix of skills,
* Resequencing work
* Outsourcing work.
* Alt Analysis may include Identifying the variable to be considered in evaluating options, and the relative importance or weight of each variable.
* Reserve: Cost Reserve used to cover budget overruns due to price volatility.
In some cases Schedule reserve can be used to address delays due to volatility associated w/ resource availability
Tip memorize: Volatility=chaos/uncertainty. Only 2 solutions more reserve money for cushion or Research alt ways to meet objectives
What is ADKAR?
Awareness
Desire
Knowledge
Ability
Reinforcement
An organizational Change Framework
Enablement Zone: Creating the changes
* Awareness: Announce The change ahead of time.
* Explain the “Why” behind the change.Give people the vision of the change the purpose.
* Give people an opportunity to ask questions and make suggestions.
* Desire: ID change Champions
* Monitor people reactions to the change.
* If people are resistant, address their concerns and showcase the benefits.
* Knowledge: Provide Training.
* Offer resources(processes, flowcharts).
* Address any skill gaps so that people can use the new system. Or new way of working.
Engagement Zone: Want changes to stick
* Ability: Schedule practice runs.
* Monitor the change.
* Set reasonable goals and adjust processes as necessary.
* Reinforcement: Monitor the change.
* Use positive feedback, reward and recognition to encourage use of the new process.
What does ADKAR stand for?
Awareness
Desire
Knowledge
Ability
Reinforcement
Ambiguity vs Uncertainty?
Ambiguity:
* Definition: Lack of clarity about meaning or cause-effect relationships.
* Key Feature: You don’t understand the situation due to missing context, unclear instructions, or new concepts.
* Examples:
* A project requirement that is open to multiple interpretations.
* Emerging technologies where the outcomes are unclear.
* How to Handle: Clarify through discussions, research, or testing (e.g., prototypes).
Uncertainty:
- Definition: Lack of knowledge about the future or outcomes.
- Key Feature: You don’t know what will happen even if you understand the situation.
- Examples:
- Market demand for a product launch is unpredictable.
- A project relying on external dependencies that are not guaranteed.
- How to Handle: Increase information through forecasting, risk management, and contingency planning.
Quick Distinction:
* Ambiguity: What does this mean?
* Uncertainty: What will happen?
VUCA Definitions
V - Volatility:
* Definition: Rapid and unpredictable change.
* Example: Sudden market shifts causing project delays.
2. U - Uncertainty:
* Definition: Lack of clarity about the present or future.
* Example: Stakeholder needs evolving mid-project.
3. C - Complexity:
* Definition: Many interconnected parts making decisions harder.
* Example: Managing multiple teams across different time zones.
4. A - Ambiguity:
* Definition: Lack of clarity about meaning or cause-effect relationships.
* Example: New technologies with unknown implications on project outcomes.
How to Apply VUCA to PMP Questions:
- Identify the scenario: Is the project experiencing rapid changes (V), unknowns (U), interdependent issues (C), or unclear directions (A)?
- Choose strategies: Relate VUCA factors to project responses:
* Volatility: Focus on agility and adaptability.
* Uncertainty(future): Increase stakeholder communication.
* Complexity: Use expert judgment and integration.
* Ambiguity: Conduct experiments or prototypes.
