Voting Behaviour and the Media - Key Points

Question 1

Case Studies

Answer 1

1) 1979 Thatcher’s first victory
2) 1997 Blair’s New Labour Landslide
3) 2010 First post-war coalition
4) 2019 Get Brexit Done

Question 2

Case Study: 1979 Thatcher’s first victory
RESULTS

Answer 2

Conservative = 339 seats (+62) (44% of vote)
Labour (Jim Callaghan) = 269 seats (-50) (37% of vote)
Liberal Democrats = 11 seats (-2) (13.8% of vote)

Turnout = 76%

Question 3

Case Study: 1979 Thatcher’s first victory
WHY THATCHER WON

Answer 3

POLICIES AND MANIFESTOS
- Thatcher’s manifesto mentioned privatisation of nationalized industries and curbing trade union power

CAMPAIGN
- Conservatives used modern advertising techniques (‘Labour isn’t working’) and photo opportunities
- However, Callaghan was 20 points ahead of Thatcher when people asked, ‘who would make the best PM?’ (Thatcher wisely declined TV debate)

WINTER OF DISCONTENT
- Weakness of Labour = sense of national paralysis
- Callaghan failed to control union power

MEDIA
- The Sun accused Callaghan of being out of touch. “Crisis? What crisis?”

Question 4

Case Study: 1979 Thatcher’s first victory
IMPACT OF WIN

Answer 4

• Thatcher increased her majority in ‘83 and ‘87 & Tories stayed in office until ‘97
• Labour collapsed into a period of internal left/right fighting over policy, until Blair’s New Labour took control of the party

Question 5

Case Study: 1997 Blair’s New Labour Landslide
RESULTS

Answer 5

Labour = 418 seats (+145) (43% of vote)
Conservatives = 165 seats (-178) (30.7% of vote)
Liberal Democrats = 46 seats (+28) (16.8% of vote)

Turnout = 71%

Question 6

Case Study: 1997 Blair’s New Labour Landslide
WHY LABOUR WON

Answer 6

POLICIES AND MANIFESTOS
- New Labour got rid of Old Labour policies (e.g. tax and spend & nationalisation) but was tough on law and order, and wanted to reduce class sizes and cut hospital waiting lists
- Appealed to middle-class voters
- Their emphasis on constitutional reform appealed to Lib Dems in marginal seats

CAMPAIGN
- Labour employed public relations experts
- Labour used focus groups to assess public opinion
- Labour kept all candidates on message
- Labour targeted marginals
- However, despite this, the party’s lead in the opinion polls declined during the campaign

CONSERVATIVE UNPOPULARITY
- Failures of John Major’s government - economic difficulties (Black Wednesday)
- Tories had lost their image as efficient managers of the economy
- Party split over EU
- Sleaze
- Perception of weak leadership

MEDIA
- Sun and Times supported Blair

Question 7

Case Study: 1997 Blair’s New Labour Landslide
IMPACT OF WIN

Answer 7

• Led to 13 years of Labour government (Brown succeeded Blair in 2007)
• Lib Dems emerged as a significant force
• Conservatives were divided and appeared out of touch with ordinary people

Question 8

Case Study: 2010 First post-war coalition
RESULTS

Answer 8

Conservative = 306 seats (+96) (36% of vote)
Labour = 258 seats (-90) (29% of vote)
Liberal Democrats = 57 seats (-5) (23% of vote)

Turnout = 65%

Question 9

Case Study: 2010 First post-war coalition
RESULTS EXPLAINED

Answer 9

POLICIES AND MANIFESTOS
- Main issue = Budget deficit
- Conservatives wanted deeper, immediate, public spending cuts
- Tories accused Labour of reckless overspending (wasteful)

CAMPAIGN
- Conservatives targeted marginals, emphasising their support for the NHS
- Brown damaged by ‘bigoted woman’ incident
- Televised debates with 3 leaders
- Clegg did very well (“I agree with Nick”) but Lib Dems still lost seats

BROWN UNPOPULAR
- Massive financial crisis and recession
- Tories attacked him as being incompetent with the economy / personality flaws
- But voters were not fully convinced by Cameron, and his modernisation of the Tory Party so a coalition was formed (35% of voters did not choose either of the Big Two parties)

MEDIA
- Treated Brown harshly as an insecure, bad-tempered workaholic

Question 10

Case Study: 2010 First post-war coalition
IMPACT OF WIN

Answer 10

• Brown lost = end of New Labour era
• Cameron increased Conservative seats (party modernised under his leadership - ‘Compassionate Conservatism’ - no longer the ‘nasty’ party?)
• No majority for Conservatives, so first coalition formed since war (coalition served the full 5 years - partly due to Fixed Terms Parliaments Act)
  
  • In 2015, Cameron was able to win a slender majority (Lib Dem vote plunged - they were blamed for many of the problems of the coalitions)

Question 11

Case Study: 2019 Get Brexit Done
RESULTS

Answer 11

Conservatives = 365 seats (+48) (43.6% of vote)
Labour = 262 seats (-60) (32.1% of vote)
Liberal Democrats = 11 seats (-1) (11.6%)
SNP = 48 seats (+13) (3.9% of vote but SNP does not stand in England, Wales or NI)

Question 12

Case Study: 2019 Get Brexit Done
RESULTS EXPLAINED

Answer 12

POLICIES AND MANIFESTOS

CAMPAIGN

CORBYN UNPOPULAR

MEDIA

Question 13

Case Study: 2019 Get Brexit Done
RESULTS EXPLAINED

POLICIES AND MANIFESTOS

Answer 13

• Main issue = Brexit
• Conservative Party supported leaving under the terms of the withdrawal agreement as negotiated by Mr Johnson (amending Theresa May’s previous agreement) and this agreement formed a central part of the Conservative campaign
• Labour Party proposed a renegotiation of the withdrawal agreement (towards a closer post-withdrawal relationship with the EU) and would then put this forward as an option in a referendum alongside the option of remaining in the EU
• Labour Party’s campaigning stance in that referendum would be decided at a special conference
• Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid Cymru, The Independent Group for Change and the Green Part of England and Wales were all opposed to Brexit and proposed a further referendum be held with the option (for which they would campaign) to remain in the EU
• Lib Dems originally pledged that if they formed a majority government (considered a highly unlikely outcome by observers), they would revoke the Article 50 notification immediately and cancel Brexit
• Part way through the campaign, the Lib Dems dropped the policy of revoking Article 50 after the party realised it was not going to win a majority in the election

Question 14

Case Study: 2019 Get Brexit Done
RESULTS EXPLAINED

CAMPAIGN

Answer 14

• Conservatives targeted Red Wall seats of the Labour Party in the Midlands and the North of England (seats that had been Labour for years but voted to leave in the 2016 referendum)

Question 15

Case Study: 2019 Get Brexit Done
RESULTS EXPLAINED

CORBYN UNPOPULAR

Answer 15

• The leader’s appeal to voters plummeted between 2017 and 2019
• Had his popularity stayed at its peak level, it is said that Labour’s vote share in 2019 would have been 6 percentage points higher
• By September 2019, 67% of voters disliked Corbyn, most strongly, and only 12% liked him
• It links this to issues including Corbyn’s handling of complaints of antisemitism in the party, Labour’s Brexit position, and a perception of disunity due to events such as the defection of MPs to the short-lived Independent Group

Question 16

Case Study: 2019 Get Brexit Done
RESULTS EXPLAINED

MEDIA

Answer 16

• A large proportion of the newspaper coverage of Labour and especially of its leader (Jeremy Corbyn) was very negative
• James Hanning, writing in the British Journalism Review, said that, when reporting and commenting on Boris Johnson, Conservative supporting newspapers made little mention of “a track record that would have sunk any other politician”
• In the Loughborough analysis, during the first week of the campaign, for example, the Conservatives had a positive press coverage score of +29.7, making them the only party to receive a positive overall presentation in the press
• Labour, meanwhile, had a negative score of -70, followed by the Brexit Party on -19.7 and the Lib Dems on -10
• Over the whole campaign, press hostility towards Labour had doubled compared with during the 2017 election, and negative coverage of the Conservatives halved

Question 17

Case Study: 2019 Get Brexit Done
IMPACT OF WIN

Answer 17

• Led to UK leaving EU at the end of January 2020 on the terms agreed between Mr Johnson and the EU
• Largest Conservative majority since the 1987 general election
• Corbyn resigned as leader and was replaced as the architect of the party’s Brexit policy, by the former CPS Chief, Sir Kier Starmer MP in March 2020
• Jo Swinson, the leader of the Liberal Democrats lost her East Dunbartonshire constituency and was replaced after a very long and protracted leadership election by the former Energy Secretary (during the 2010-2015 coalition), Sir Ed Davey MP

Question 18

What is a manifesto?

Answer 18

A manifesto contains a set of policies which a party intends to introduce if it wins the election.

Question 19

What is a mandate?

Answer 19

A mandate is the authority or right to govern which comes from winning an election. This means the party can then implement its manifesto promises.

Question 20

Factors influencing voting behaviour

Answer 20

• Class (non-social factor)
• Partisanship (non-social factor)
• Governing competency and issues (non-social factor)
• Valence (non-social factor)
• Social factors

Question 21

Factors influencing voting behaviour

CLASS

Answer 21

• Up to 1970, class was a strong factor (i.e. around 2/3 of w/c voted Labour, around 2/3 of m/c voted Tory. NB: Around 1/3 of w/c voted Labour and 1/3 of m/c (e.g. many teachers / social workers) voted Tory
• After 1970, a process of class dealignment i.e., voters no longer identify themselves as belonging to a certain class and no longer vote for the party they might be expected to, e.g., in 1964, 78% of class AB voted Tory, by 2010 it was 40%
• Linked to ‘embourgeoisement’ i.e., growth of middle classes
• However, it is still true that voters in highest classes are a) more likely to vote and b) more likely to vote Tory

Question 22

Factors influencing voting behaviour

PARTISANSHIP

Answer 22

• Partisan dealignment has occurred, i.e., voters are no longer always voting for the same party at every election, i.e., more people have become floating or swing voters (e.g. in 1979, the big two parties got 81% of the vote; in 1997 this was 74% and just 67% in 2015. However, back up to 82% in 2017)

Reasons for partisan dealignment:
- Disillusion (lost confidence in politics)
- Apathy (lack of interest)
- Rise of smaller parties (e.g. SNP)
- Fall in party membership (not Labour)
- Class dealignment

Question 23

Factors influencing voting behaviour

GOVERNING COMPETENCY AND ISSUES

Answer 23

• Voters often vote on how competent a party is / will be in governing effectively (e.g. 1979 Labour incompetence = winter of discontent & 1997 John Major incompetence & 2010 Labour’s poor management of financial crisis)
• This is known as rational choice theory
• i.e. voters are like consumers (‘Which party will benefit me most on the important issues?’)
• Wallet voting is a type of rational choice voting (i.e. which party will make me better of financially)
• ‘Feelgood factor’ = when a lot of people feel a sense of wellbeing
• Lack of a feelgood factor helped the conservatives in ‘79 and 2010)

Question 24

Factors influencing voting behaviour

VALENCE

Answer 24

• i.e. image of the party that voters have (e.g. are they trustworthy / united / etc)
• Elections since 1979 have become more presidential (i.e. image and personality of party leaders is crucial factor)
• Strong charismatic leaders do well (e.g. Thatcher & Blair) and weak leaders (e.g. Major, Brown and Nick Clegg in 2015) do less well
• In recent years, lots of photo opportunities etc. and heavily controlled campaigns have focused on personality politics

Question 25

Factors influencing voting behaviour

SOCIAL FACTORS

Answer 25

GENDER
- Historically women had a slightly stronger preference for Conservatives, but Blair was popular with women (especially young women) due to their support for family-friendly policies (e.g. free nursery places)

AGE
- 18-24 = strong Labour
- 35-44 = Lib Dems do well
- The older a voter, the more likely they are to vote Conservative (therefore, Cameron refused to cut pensioner benefits)
- In 2017, 59% of 65+ voted Conservative and 67% of 18-24 voted Labour
- In the 2017 and 2019 general elections, age has now replaced class as THE factor in voting (2019 election showed that the younger you are, 18-24, they more likely you are to vote Labour, and 55+ are more likely to vote Conservative

ETHNICITY
- Ethnic minorities are far more likely to voter Labour (70% voted Labour in 1997 and in 2010, 60% voted Labour whilst only 16% voted conservative)
- This can be down to class voting, not just ethnicity
- Ethnicity also affects turnout (in 2010, 67% of whites voted whilst only 51% of minorities voted)
- More established and well-off immigrant groups often move towards Conservatives (e.g. Asian voters in Harrow)

REGION
- South = prosperous and home ownership is high = more Conservative
- In industrial / urban areas in the North and Wales = poorer = Labour
- Scotland = SNP
- London is different to South = Labour strong (e.g. Sadiq Khan)

Question 26

The influence of the media

Answer 26

• Newspapers
• TV
• Opinion polls
• Should opinion polls be banned before elections?
• Internet
• ‘Spin doctors’
• Problem of media bias and persuasion

Question 27

The influence of the media: Newspapers

Answer 27

• Research suggests impact is limited - but they do reinforce existing attitudes
• They often set the agenda for politics (e.g. 1979 focus on economy)
• Can create image of leaders (e.g. attacks on Brown in 2010 damaged him) which could affect floating voters
• Some politics change their views to try to please certain papers (e.g. getting tough on immigration)
• BUT, Corbyn had a negative press image in 2017, but did better than expected

Question 28

The influence of the media: TV

Answer 28

• In 2010, almost 10 million people watched the first Leaders Debate
• Unlike newspapers, TV must remain impartial

Question 29

The influence of the media: Opinion polls

Answer 29

• Inaccurate in recent elections (2015, Brexit, 2017) (maybe because of ‘shy Tories’ or a not representative sample)
• Voters may adjust their vote depending on the polls (In 2015, many may have decided not to vote Labour because they feared a Labour-SNP coalition, which some polls were predicting)
• If polls show a clear winner, some people may decide not to vote
• Parties may adjust policies according to poll results (e.g. Blair and no more tax and spend)
• Corbyn went into the campaign with the lowest net satisfaction rating of any opposition leader since the later 1970s (Ipsos Mori)
• Among older voters, Labour campaigners said his past support for the Irish republican movement came up repeatedly on the doorsteps
• In London, antisemitism and what people perceived as the absence of an apology appeared to be a key issue

Question 30

The influence of the media: Should opinion polls be banned before elections?

Answer 30

YES
- Too influential
- Often inaccurate
- Politicians should not construct policies based on polls

NO
- Freedom of expression
- Provide valuable information
- Could still be published overseas or done privately

Question 31

The influence of the media: Internet

Answer 31

• Internet access grew from 26% of households in 200, to 90% today (parties and candidates now have websites and social media networks)
• Social media is used to target certain voters
• In the 2015 campaign, Conservatives spent £100,000 a month on Facebook adverts, which was an easy way of targeting young voters (less so older voters, who rely more on TV and press)
• Labour’s Momentum social media campaign in 2017 was regarded as very influential, particularly amongst younger voters)
• Probably just reinforces existing views, rather than changing them (people rarely seek out sites that conflict with their own views)

Question 32

The influence of the media: ‘Spin doctors’

Answer 32

• Very effective for Blair (e.g., Alistair Campbell - so called ‘news management’ by Labour)
• Today, Ministers often make important announcements in media, rather than in Parliament

Question 33

The influence of the media: Problem of media bias and persuasion

Answer 33

• A free press is important BUT newspaper owners want to sell paper so they can oversimplify complex issues or focus too much on personalities (e.g., Diane Abbott in 2017)
• Leveson Inquiry showed that some press practices are unethical (e.g., phone hacking)
• Some papers are very biased (e.g., ‘It’s The Sun Wot Won It’ for John Major in 1992) and strong social media bias (Russian interference in Brexit referendum?)
• NB: The winning party at each recent election was supported by the majority of the press
• In 2010, Clegg did well in TV debates and saw a temporary bounce (Did this deny Cameron an overall majority?)
• Media often projected a damaging image of Clegg based on appearance and dress which could put off floating voters.
• Analysis by Loughborough University showed newspaper negativity towards the Labour Party reached its highest levels during the final week of the election campaign
• In its last weekly report analysing social media coverage of the 2019 General Election, the University’s Centre for Research in Communication and Culture (CRCC) found press hostility to Labour was more than double the levels identified during the 2017 election