Tuesday Flashcards
What method is Delphi method
qualitative
Causal model
quantitative
Delphi
qualitative forecasting method that involves development of a consensus by a group of experts using a multi stage process to coNverge on a forecast - USEFUL FOR LONG TERM FORECASTING
Time series models
(extrapolation methods) Quantitative forecasting method - use past values or patterns to predict a future value or values, but the longer the forecasting period, the less likely the past values will be relevant to those future values.
Naive time series model
Uses the single immediate prior period’s actual value as a forecast for the next period
Weighted moving average
uses multiple periods prior but adjusts those values by assigning different weights to the prior values before determining an average
Exponential smoothing
Assigns weights that decline exponentially as the prior data becomes older. Reduces random fluctuations in data
Simple moving average
Uses an average of a specific number of the most recent periods actual values, without adjusting them, as a forecast for a future period
Decompostion
Removal of the effects of various patterns from a set of time series data
List causal models
Regression Analysis
Economic Statistical model
input-output model
Lisst time series patterns
Cyclical
Seasonal
Trend
Risk free rate
rate of return required by investors to compensate them for deferring current consumption when making an investment
Weighted average cost of capital
the hurdle rate.
