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Complex Cognition > Task 5 - Decision-Making > Flashcards

Task 5 - Decision-Making Flashcards

1
Q

Judgment

A

Individuals using various cues to draw inferences about situtations and events

  • > evaluated in terms of accuracy
  • > component of larger decision-making process
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2
Q

Decision-Making

A

Individuals choosng amongst various options

  • > evaluated in terms of consequences of decisions
  • > involves problem-solving
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3
Q

Bayes’ theorem

A

probability of event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event

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4
Q

Base-rate information

A

relative frequency with which an event occurs, or an attribute is present in the population
-> people take it less into account than they shold

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5
Q

Fast-and-frugal heuristics

A

involve rapid processing of relatively little information

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6
Q

Judgment components

A
  • Bayes Theorem
  • Base-rate information
  • fast-and-frugal heursitics
  • > judgment task performance less related to intelligence and cognitive ability
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7
Q

Heuristics

A
  • Representativeness
  • Availability
  • Take-the-best (fast-and-frugal)
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8
Q

Representativeness Heuristic

A

Assumption that representative or typical members of a category are encountered most frequently
-> conjunction fallacy

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9
Q

Conjunction fallacy

A

Mistaken belief that combination of two events is more likely than one of the events on its own

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10
Q

Availability heuristic

A

Assumption that frequencies of events can be estimated accurately based on how easy or difficult it is to retrieve relevant information from long-term memory

  • > availability by recall
  • fluency mechanism (judgin by how easy relevant instances are brought to mind)
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11
Q

Take-the-best heuristic (fast-and-frugal)

A

take the best ignore the rest: assuming that most valid cue is the one that comes to mind quickest): e.g. estimating Cologne larger than Berlin because it has a cathedral

  • Search rule
  • Stopping rule
  • Decision rule
  • Recognition heuristic
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12
Q

Search rule

A

searching cue in order of validity (e.g. name recognition)

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13
Q

Stopping rule

A

Stopping after finding a discriminatory cue (only applying to one of the possible answers)

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14
Q

Decision rule

A

choosing the outcome

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15
Q

Recognition heuristic

A

Using knowledge that only one out of two objects is recognized to make judgment

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16
Q

Heuristics advantages

A
  • fast
  • robust: can be used regardless of limited usefulness when information is sparce
  • saves resources: we don’t like thinking hard when we can avoid it
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17
Q

Natural Frequency Hypothesis

A

Evolutionary account of strengths and weaknesses of human judgments

  • natural sampling
  • judgment improves when problems use frequencies (easier for humans than fractions and percentages)
  • explains why people ignore base-rates
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18
Q

Causal Models

A

Humans possess causal knowledge allowing successful judgments in real world

  • > lab problems fail to provide causal knowledge
  • > more accurate judgments made in real-life
19
Q

Dual-Process Model

A

System 1: fast, automatic, effortless, difficult to control or modify
System 2: analyitcal, controlled, rule governed, slower, effortful

20
Q

Incongruent problem

A

problems in which description of person and base-rate information point to different answers
-> people fail to use base-rate information even though they process it (take longer to formulate answer)

21
Q

Decision-making theories

A

Normative Theories
Expected utility theory
Subjective expected utility theory

22
Q

Normative Theories

A

Focuses on how people should make decisions (rationally) not how they actually make them

23
Q

Expected utility theory

A

We try to maximize utility (subjective value of outcome)
-> when we need to decide we assess expected utility
Expected utility = probab. of outcome x utility of outcome

24
Q

Subjective expected utility theory

A

Using information from people’s references to combine subjective utilities and subjective probabilities

  • > decisions impacted by factors other than simple utility
  • > dominance principle
25
Q

Dominance principle

A

Better of two similar options will be preferred

26
Q

Prospect Theory

A

People attach more value to losses than to ains

  • > people not rational agents (challenges expected utility theory)
  • reference point is identified
  • loss aversion main motivator
  • positive value associated with gains increases slowly as gains increase
  • negative value associated with losses becomes greater as losses increase
  • rejects dominance principle
  • sunk-cost effect
  • framing effect
27
Q

Loss aversion

A

individuals much more sensitive to potential loses than potential gains
-> most people unwilling to go 50-50

28
Q

Sunk-cost effect

A

greater tendency to continue endeavor once an investment in money, effort, or time was made
-> individuals high in neuroticism more susceptible

29
Q

Framing effect

A

Influence of irrelevant aspects of a situation (e.g. wording) on decision making

30
Q

Emotional factors in decision-making

A 
Impact bias
sunk-cost effects
Omission bias
Status quo bias
Rational-emotional model
Brain areas
-> emotions don't always impair: e.g. impaired VMPFC leads to poor decision-making
31
Q

Impact bias

A

People overestimate intensity and duration of negative reactions to loss

32
Q

Omission bias

A

individuals prefer inaction to action

-> level of anticipated regret greater when unwanted outcome has been caused by individual’s own actions

33
Q

Status quo bias

A

tendency for individuals to repeat a choice several times in spite of changes in their preference

34
Q

Rational-emotional model

A

decision-making determined by rational factors based on inferences and outcome information + experienced and anticipated emotion (based on regret and fear)

35
Q

Social Functionalist Approach

A

Includes social context of decision-making

-> we feel need to justify to other people and ourselves

36
Q

Complex Decision-Making

A

Decision-making in real life more complex than under lab conditions

  • Multi-attribute utility theory
  • Unbounded rationality
  • bounded rationality
  • Elimination by aspects theory
37
Q

Multi-attribute utility theory

A

decision-maker goes through stages:

  • identification of relevant attributes
  • weighing attributes
  • obtain total utility
  • select option with highest weighted total
  • > rarely used, too complex
38
Q

Unbounded rationality

A

Assumes all relevant information is available for use and used by decision-makers

  • > we optimize: best choice made
  • > people often don’t make best choices
39
Q

Bounded rationality

A

We produce reasonable or workable solutions to problems in spite of limited processing abilities by using heuristics (short-cuts)

  • bounding factors: constraints in environment, mind (limited attention and memory)
  • Satisficing
40
Q

Satisficing

A

Individuals consider various options one at a time and select first one meeting their minimum requirements

  • > satisficers content with reasonably good decision, maximizers want perfect decision
  • > satisficers more happy, satisfied and optimistic
41
Q

Elimination-by-aspects theory

A

Decision-makers as eliminating options by considering one relevant attribute or aspect after another
-> most people consistently limit amount of information they consider though

42
Q

Unconscious thought theory

A

Conscious thought: constrained by limited capacity of consciousness

  • > unconscious thought has large capacity and can rapidly weigh relative importance of different pieces of task-relevant information
  • > unconscious thought might lead to superior decisions when decision-making is complex
43
Q

Human complex decision-making gap to ideal

A

We only focus on some of the available information

  • > limited capacity to process and remember
  • > some aspects of decision-making irrational: preferences easily changed e.g. by order in which options are presented

Complex Cognition (9 decks)

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