Superpowers COPY Flashcards
what is a superpower?
A superpower is a country with the ability to project its dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, e.g. the USA, USSR and British empire in the late 1940s
what is an emerging power?
Countries with a large role in one or more superpower characteristics and with a growing influence, they are experiencing a transition in terms of their economic structure. e.g. china, Brazil, India
what is a regional power?
they can project dominating power and influence over other countries within the continent or region. they influence other countries at a continental scale
e.g. South Africa in Africa or Saudi Arabia in the Middle East
what are the 6 superpower characteristics categorised under?
- economic
- political
- military
- cultural
- demographic
- natural resources
explain the economic characteristics of a superpower
- seen as a prerequisite of power
- large GDP, high % of international trade, currency used as reserve currency, the EU and the USA produce over 40% of global GDP
- a large GDP creates influence as a potential market and as the home of TNCs which create FDI, gives the wealth to build and maintain a powerful military, exploit natural resources and develop human ones through education
- USA have the largest GDP- $18.5 trillion
- determine global economic policies, by joining political and economic organisations such as the G20
explain the political power characteristic of superpowers
- political power is the ability to influence the policies of other countries through diplomacy
- IGOs often do not equally weight members, voting power determined by economic contribution, historical role in founding of organisation (UN), population
- often due to dominance in other characteristics, e.g. large economy gives power in trade talks, military powers makes them a political threat
- G20, political power, they are a significant decision-making from
explain the military power characteristic of superpowers
- the threat of military action is a powerful bargaining chip and military force can be used to achieve geopolitical goals
- achieve global influence through a blue water navy (large ships for the open ocean) and missile and satellite technology
- indicators of military power include:
army size
defence spending
nuclear weapons
size of blue water navy
arms exporter
whether they are leading international military organisation - dependent on demographic power (no. of military personnel that can be deployed) and economic power (budget determines degree of investment)
- many see membership of the UN Security Council as the ultimate status of military power
- china have expanded their military but their interests lie mainly in the Asia region, south china sea, influence beyond there is minor
explain the cultural power characteristics of superpowers
cultural power includes how appealing a nation’s way of life, values and ideology are to others
this is achieved by:
- the dominance of media, they decide what music and films are played
- TNCs or migrant introducing cultural products
- imposition of viewpoint in international agreements
indicators include: global spread of music, fashion, food, language, religion
- WESTERNISATION
- the USA have the highest percentage of the world’s largest TNCs- 27%
- three record companies dominate UK music production
explain the demographic power characteristics of superpowers
- a large population leads to a large diaspora and greater no. of workers at TNCs, providing a sufficient labour force to generate economic growth
- demographic power also assists economic power through providing a large market and economies of scale (so more profit)
- despite a large pop being beneficial for economic growth, you can have a very strong economy without a big pop (Singapore)
- china and India each use their large populations as a source of cheap labour
explain the power of resources as a characteristic of a superpower
- the control of access to physical resources such as energy and minerals
- provides inputs for economic growth because their resources can be exported at a high price, making it essential for economic growth
- resources may be internally located or access through reliable source countries using transport pathways
- having access to resources doesnt guarantee development as in many countries these resources are managed by major TNCs, e.g. shell and BP in Nigeria
- OPEC and their oil
what is a hyperpower?
an unchallenged superpower that is dominant in all aspects of powers, examples include the USA from 1990 to 2010 and Britain from 1850 to 1910
what is hard power?
it represents a coercive approach to international relations and employs the use of military or economic power to achieve certain outcomes
- introduced by Joseph Nye
what is soft power?
a persuasive approach for countries to act in a particular way, on the basis that the persuader is respected and appealing. it includes political persuasion (diplomacy) and cultural influence.
- introduced by Joseph Nye
- western liberal democracies have the greatest international rankings of soft power
- the moral authority of a nation’s foreign policy
what are the benefits and drawbacks of soft power?
benefits:
- through the diffusion of their culture worldwide it gives them a global presence without the need to directly invest in the country, adopt their way of life, many rely on soft power for overseas influence
- the indirect effects of attraction and diffused influence can make a significant difference in obtaining favourable outcomes in bargaining situations
drawbacks:
- takes a long time to effect whereas hard power takes little time
- Soft power relies on a country having respected culture, values and politics, which may be enough to persuade some countries but not others, especially if they are culturally and ideologically very different.
give an example of soft power
UK
- diplomacy, they have one of the largest networks of diplomats and embassies in the world
- the BBC, they global service allows them to broadcast their English values across the world
- City of London (and New York) dominate international finance, banking and law - setting standards and values
what are the benefits and drawbacks to hard power?
benefits:
- it is fast acting so you can see the results better, you can achieve quick results by using hard power, quite tangible
- you cannot rise up without hard power, you must show your importance through military or economic power
drawbacks:
- even if the results of hard power are fast, they aren’t very long lasting
- the use of hard power makes people suffer, doesn’t allow people to have an independent opinion, countries may view the enforcement of military action as illegal and unnecessary, the aggressor may lose allies and moral authority (Russia’s invasion into Crimea)
what are examples of hard power
- the gulf war
- the invasion of Iraq in 2003 by US-led forces
- the American-led war in Afghanistan
which characteristic of superpowers is arguably the most important for maintaining power?
Strong economic factors
- at the end of the day if a country isn’t rich then it’ll limit them in all the other characteristics of a superpower. They won’t be able to afford a strong military base nor be able to have access to high levels of trade due to a lack of skilled workers and barriers to investment perhaps through infrastructure and education
- usa and china are such strong superpowers as through their wealth and focus on education they have been able to attract large amounts of investment, not only this but through their wealth they have accumulated lots of hard power through military bases,
what is smart power?
an approach that underscores the necessity of a strong military, but also invests heavily in alliances, partnerships, and institution of all levels to expand one’s influence and establish legitimacy of one’s action
- it is a combination of both hard and soft power
explain mackinder’s geo-strategic location theory
in 1904 Halford mackinder identified a region that he called the heartland which stretched from Eastern Europe into russia. he believed that the heartland was the key geo-strategic location in the world because control of it commanded a huge proportion of the world’s physical and Human Resources
- he argued that whoever would control the heartland would control the world
- the further away from the heartland a country was, the less influence it would have
- the heartland is very hard to invade due to the physical barriers in place
- mackinder believed that russia should be the world’s global power due to its favourable location and resources but suffered from two disadvantages: it has many borders, due to frozen ground it has few year-round ports
- some argue that the Middle East is now the heartland
explain how Mackinder believed the heartland could shift geographically
- as a result of sea power
- he believed that Britain’s industrialisation had shifted the centre of power westwards, he believed that the UK could dominate everywhere
explain the changing centre of gravity of power
- it shows how the centre is ‘pulled’ towards the country/region with the largest GDP so it shows the importance of the British industrial revolution in 19th century to then lead to a shift towards the USA in 20th century due to their industrial rise
- the changing positions between 2000 and the predicted change by 2025 reflect the growing importance of china
- power has changed overtime, different power structures bring different levels of stability
what are the advantages and disadvantages of amckinfders theory?
Advantages:
- it reinforced the idea that control of physical resources (land, mineral wealth) was important
- after WWI, attempts were made to limit Germany’ expansion into this strategic area
- after WWII, NATO allies tried to contain the soviets from expanding into south and west Europe
- underpins what is still going on today, can be easily applied to modern geopolitics
Disadvantages:
- physical resources are traded internationally now due to the global shift, there is much less need to have them domestically and so naturally the resources are spread out of its countries of origin
- resources can easily be transported around the world and advances in military technology means armies can much more influence without needing to colonise other nations
what is geopolitical stability?
how well different governments get on with each other
- the relationship between Putin and trump shows one of instability
explain the unipolar power (colonial power) through british empire
- occurred between 1800-1919
- They gained the power through direct colonial control. Their navy played a large role in their growth as they transported soldiers and equipment to potential areas of conquest and their large and advanced armed forces conquered the territory and controlled it.
- As they built their empires through colonial control they were able to build power more globally. This started with ship building from their deciduous trees allowing them to explore new lands from the 1400s. They travelled by boat and started to colonise unoccupied land. This led to the growth of the British Empire.
- To maintain their power, Britain highly populated the countries with British military and British administrators. - They introduced British legal systems, education systems and inventions such as the railways, language, sport and culture (as seen in India with cricket)
Why did they want the power?
They wanted the power in order to gain access to the resources that these areas offer and once they took hold in one country they would then be able to gain access to the neighbouring countries. Commodities such as cotton, slaves and spices were used to set up trading companies which generated income and allowed further exploration. As the UK brought back the raw materials to their major ports, it fuelled the industrial revolution.
how stable was the colonial rule of the british empire and why did their power decline?
How stable was their power?
It was not very stable even though uni power is said to be one of stability.. They maintained empires mainly by force (hard power). Britain’s argument was that it brought stability and trade but instead they exploited the countries. Africa’s poverty today is now linked to colonialism. A uni-polar world should be stable as there is only one person at top but the costs of being a hegemon are high and hard to sustain. If the country in power has moral beliefs and fair intentions then it can be a world of great stability (e.g. Norway vs North Korea)
Why did their power decline?
- The fall of the British Empire occurred because the UK recognised that colonising countries was not morally correct, it didn’t work with conflicting opinions.
- Germany started to rise and many believe that WW1 started because of this.
- rapid American industrialisation after the 1860s challenged british economic power, their transnational rail links gives them an economic power base which allowed them to take over the UK economically
explain the multipolar power during the inter-war period
Who had the power?
Several countries have a highly influential role in the world or their world region and link together in world economic and political systems. From 1919 and 1939 it was an imperial era where we saw multipolar power operate. This saw European powers conquering land in the Americas, Asia and Africa where they built empires that directly controlled territories. Britain had the largest empire, reaching its peak in 1920 when it controlled 24% of land globally. There was no dominant power.
How did they gain power?
They gained power by colonising foreign countries in order to set base and hopefully further expand their colony. As countries expanded the reach of their colonies they were able to gain access to more resources along with a larger global influence. They spread their culture around the world allowing for a growth in soft power as people begin to adopt their way of life.
Why did they want the power?
They wanted to obtain a greater global influence. Through colonising areas they could not only exploit the land through obtaining their natural resources but also spread their culture gaining soft power. This was seen as , Britain highly populated their colonies with British military and British administrators. They introduced British legal systems, education systems and inventions such as the railways, language, sport and culture (as seen in India with cricket).
what is a multipolar world?
a world where several countries have a highly influential role in the world or their world region and link together in world economic and political systems
was the multipolar world stable and how did their power decline?
How stable was their power?
This was not stable. Due to the fact that there were several people with a highly influential role, it meant that there was a large conflict of opinions. With no one in control it meant that it created a power vacuum allowing the rise of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan with no country prepared to stop them. A multipolar power world is one of great conflict as there is no measures in containing power.
Why did their power decline?
Empires ended after the end of WW2. European countries gave independence to their colonies, because the costs of maintaining them was too high after WW2. The UK became aware that colonising countries was not morally correct. Anti-colonial movements and a desire for countries to become independent of their ‘mother’ country. Countries in Europe focused on rebuilding their own countries after the war.
explain the bipolar power that was present during the Cold War era with the USA and USSR
Who had the power?
From 1945-90 a bi-polar world dominated, made up of USA and USSR, this led to the formation of the Cold War era. It involves a tense stand-off between opposing powers who both had rapidly industrialised, ha access to raw materials, were self-sufficient and very strong militaries. The Americans and the British feared the permanent soviet domination of eastern Europe and the threat of soviet-influenced communist parties coming to power in the democracies of western Europe.
How did they gain power?
The USA and USSR sought allies among other countries as part of the USA-led ‘West’ or USSR-led ‘East’. They didn’t directly fight but they were involved in ’proxy wars’ which involves when you pick a side in a war. They gained power through investing millions into their nuclear weapons and space technology in order to gain power against their component. The western capitalist ideologies vs the eastern communist ideologies. Indirect power became important and this was seen through the different military alliances, e.g. USA (NATO) and the USSR (Warsaw Pact)
Why did they want power?
They wanted power as they wanted to become a uni-polar power and the most powerful compared to its component. The power was mainly referred to their place in the nuclear arms race and the space race in which each country tried to gain superiority in the areas of nuclear weapons and space technology. They wanted to win the Space Race and Nuclear Arms Race.
was the bipolar power between the USA and USSR stable and how did it decline?
How stable was their power?
The Bipolar power seen in the Cold War era was one of great instability however a bipolar world is seen as “the most stable form of power distribution”. This is because if they work together and support each other’s views then they will be able to create a world with complete security and control. However, the instability of the Cold Era bipolar world was mainly due to their completely contrasting ideologies with the one supporting capitalist views and the other communist. Geopolitical instability and proxy war in many different parts of the world, such as the Korean peninsula and Vietnam. It was described as having high risk.
Why did their power decline?
Their power declined not only due to rebelling countries saying they didn’t like the idea of communism but also due to the space race becoming too expensive. This led to the rise in nuclear power and this is a power that many countries continue in aiming to conquer. Their power was bound to decline due to the completely opposing ideologies they held, their fight could not be sustained.
explain the hegemony of the USA
Who had the power?
The USA holds the role of holding a hegemony. The United States emerged from the war as the dominant economic, political and technological power. The use of the USA’s ‘soft power’ during this uni-polar era has been crucial in maintaining their hegemony.
How did they gain the power?
This has been done through the use of hard and soft power. It is clear that their development sin military and large economic power play a large role in obtaining this large amount of power however their use of soft power may be argued as the main component in obtaining this hegemony. Through Americanisation and Mcdonaldisation through the presence of US TNCs setting up across the world they have been able to successfully spread their culture globally, with many arguing this to being the greatest form of power.
Why did they want power?
They wanted power in order to be able to control the world economy and international trade. Through operating a hegemony they will have the greatest amount of power and hold financial economies against other countries. It became the postwar home of the United Nations, the IMF and the WB. This allowed them to have a favourable position in terms of trade agreements and so in terms of their economy they would be favoured. They dominated the markets.
how stable is the hegemonic power of the USA and what is their biggest threat?
How stable was their power?
One may argue that their power is stable due to their capitalist ideologies that you spread across the world. The Hegemonic stability theory indicates that ‘the international system is more likely to remain stable when a single nation-state is the dominant world power or hegemon’. One may argue that their hegemon has become less table as their GDP becomes lower relative to others as there are growing economies with a considerable amount of GDP as seen in the BRIC countries. Moreover the rise in conflict with the Mexican border implies an increase in stability, they are seeing threats to their dominant power. CHINA IS THE NEW THREAT.
Why did their power decline?
The biggest threat to the US’ hegemony is the rise of China. The dominance of the USA will decline with China acting as its biggest rivalry. This is because China has access to a large amount of human resources, they have seen high rates of GDP growth at 6.1% that do not seem to slow down and they have been increasingly engaging with other parts of the world, notably by investing in Africa in terms of mineral resources. Moreover, the strength of China’s military highlights their hard power that acts as a threat to USA’s sustaining power.
what is a proxy war?
it is when you pick a side in a war, it is a war instigate by a major power which does not itself become involved, e.g. this was seen in the case of the Korean War which resulted in the division of Korea where US backed south Korea and the USSR backed North Korea
what is Neo-colonialism?
it refers to the soft power that is being used to control former colonies to ensure wealthy countries still get what they want
- some see it as a form of mutual benefit
- it tends to involve former colonies as they are more fragile and easier to manipulate
explain what the british empire relied on and what took place during this time along with china’s colonial ruling of tibet
- powerful navies to transport soldiers and equipment to areas of potential conquest
- large and advanced armed forces to conquer territory and then control it
- a fleet of merchant ships, protected by a navy to transport goods back to the home country
- people from the home country to act as the government and civil service to run the colonies
- attempts by the conquered people to rebel against the colonial power were brutally suppressed
- since 1950, china has effectively acted as a colonial ruler of Tibet, brutally suppressing during rebellions by tibetans in 1959 and 2008
explain the military influence and importance of indirect power during the Cold War era
indirect power become important as the USA and USSR sought allies among other countries as part of the USA-led ‘west’ or USSR-led ‘east’
- foreign aid as a way to ‘buy’ support from developing and emerging nations
- support for corrupt and undemocratic regimes in the developing world, in return for support for the superpower
- Russian military and political influence extended through eastern and Central Europe after WW2, they entered Germany in order to ensure strong bargaining position in post-war peace negotiations and also try to reduce Germany’s power which was split into military zones- the Russian zone became eastern Germany and the british/French/US zones became western Germany
- the USSR formed friendly relations with countries in eastern and central europe to protect it from future attacks from the west, it installed communist Govs in Poland, Hungary and east german, the border between western and Eastern Europe was called the iron curtain and it was heavily defended, at its extreme was the Berlin Wall
- those countries supporting the USSR formed the Warsaw Pact (military) and the council for mutual economic assistance (for economic strength) and those supporting the US formed NATO
explain the political and economic influence seen during the USSR and USA’s indirect control
political
- the Eastern European countries were were not directly ruled by Moscow but they were involved in economic planning and military operations
- NATO vs Warsaw pact
economic
- the USA were developing nuclear weapons but also increasing their economic influence through its Marshall plan which had an aim to rebuild war damage, promote economic development and prevent poverty that was seen as the root of communist influence
- US influence also grew through inward investment into Japan, Singapore and the Philippines, however most aid are focused on military rather than development aims
explain the cultural influence seen during the USSR and USA’s indirect control
- the Cold War was based on propaganda rather than military conflict
- the McCarthy trials were designed to expose to the American public any suspect with communist leanings, accusations reported on tv and radio
- Hollywood also produced films designed to generate suspicion of communists, portraying the US in a moral, freedom-fighting light
explain the rise of china as a potential rival to the USA’s hegemony?
- in 1998 the berlin wall fell, followed by east Germany’s communist gov, other Eastern European communist Govs also fell leaving the USA as the sole superpower in a uni-polar world.
- but china’s rapid economic growth and the USA’s dependance on china for manufactured goods has challenged the USA’s power
- china seeking global influence through investment in africa and is expanding its military
- however china still censors the internet and limits personal freedoms
explain 4 ways of in how indirect control particularly Neo-colonial control can be used to influence other countries and exert your power
1) AID- economic and political control
- the IMF and WB were set up to provide aid in the form of ‘structural adjustment programs’ to ensure countries reformed their policies to be pro-western
- much aid is also given in form of tied aid as seen in UK’s aid to India where the money had to be spent on british infrastructure and businesses
2) Military support-military control
- developing nations often rely on superpowers for military backing during times of civil war and uprising or they need to buy them weapons from e.g. USA giving Syrian rebels discounted price on guns, they want them to adopt capitalist views
3) cultural control- TNC investments
- cultural diffusion and westernisation have taken place, sport, music and the internet. many developing nations are reliant on TNCS to provide investment and jobs, otherwise they will go into extreme poverty, e.g. Coca Cola in Rajasthan
4) money lending
- developing countries often borrow money from developed ones and end up in a debtor-creditor relationship
- the UK continues to provide funding to commonwealth nations giving it ‘moral authority’
what is bi-polar power?
two opposing superpowers, with different ideologies but broadly equal in status
explain the G20
they are the richest 20 nations in the world, they meet to discuss global economies. this is a form of soft power.
- established in 1999, developed during the asian crisis where they discussed the potential downfall of Asia
- they are considered an informal forum, they act as a catalyst for new initiatives, carry large political weight
- emerging nations are funding their growth, trade and political relationships with emerging nations will help drive economic growth through the use of their cheap human and physical resources
- based on resolution not legislation, they commit to it but dont always implement it, people argue that the G20 favours the rich and increases financial inequalities
- they have evolved, before conversations were solely based on economics however now they also talk about climate change and education
what factors allow for fast growth in a nation?
- room for growth, opportunities for diversification
- good physical components, not landlocked
- open governments towards globalisation, murdle’s model of cumulative causation
- large working population
what are the opportunities for India?
- their cultural power
- good demographics
- gov investment into education plan, India spent lots on space exploration but majority of pop still living in desperate poverty
what is the prediction for the future growth of emerging powers?
- they will become increasingly important to global economic and political systems in the 21st century and the dominance of the USA will decline with China most likely to rival their hegemony
- other BRIC (Brazil, russia, India and china) and G20 countries could become increasingly powerful in the future
- Europes and the USA’s share of world GDP has been decline since about 1945 and 1990 respectively
- it is predicted emerging nations will demand more say in global organisations such as The UN
- have more decision making power in IGOs
- play a greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster response as their military capacity grows
explain how emerging countries are becoming increasingly important in global environment governance
the annual UN Climate Change conference
- the BRIC countries account for 42% of global carbon dioxide emissions, global environment governance agreements must involve these countries
- in the conference in 2015 the BRIC countries were involved in the agreement in a way they had not been when the 1997 Kyoto protocol was signed, which only involved developed countries
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the emerging nation of China
strengths:
- they are the main trading partner for more than 100 countries compared to half of that for the USA, accounts for 60% of GDP in BRIC countries (EC)
- geostrategic location for trade and defence, belt and road initiative aims o gain a geo-economic presence of central Asia’s heartland (EN)
- most populous country in the world, 4x pop of the USA, large workforce (D)
weaknesses:
- deeply polarised between ideals (republic vs democratic), authoritarian gov leads to lack of power (P)
- as much as they have expanded their military, its interests lie mainly in the Asia region (SCS), military beyond Asia is minor, little global military reach (M)
- the Chinese are suffering from an identity crisis, when traditional Chinese values meet global culture under the circumstance of globalisation, cultural erosion due to TNCs (C)
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the emerging power of India
strengths:
- lots of good alliances, democratic nation, US and India’s relationship, they both worry about china (P)
- high skilled knowledgeable economy, Pharmaceuticals and biotechnology defence, call centres, Bangalore (EC)
- Bollywood, food spread culturally (C)
weaknesses:
- need manufacturing, a lot of red tape has meant that attracting manufacturing has been difficult (EC)
- they need massive modernisation in their military equipment, sophisticated hardware needed (M)
- trade unions are getting bigger due to low pay in industries, political instability (D/P)
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the emerging power of Russia
strengths:
- large oil and gas reserves (EN,EC)
- high literacy rate at 99.73% and therefore high levels of educated workforce (D)
- they have a very strong leader and government leading to power (P)
weaknesses:
- limited access to navy due to lack of ports, naval and aircraft stock ageing, one aircraft carrier dates back to the soviet era (M)
- global warming more severe, 2.5x faster than the rest of the world (EN)
- russia is 9th largest economy but it is very dependant on oil and gas exports (produces half of its GDP), very vulnerable to price fluctuations (EC)
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the emerging power of Brazil
strengths:
- allies with the USA, bilateral relationship allowing for economic growth (P)
- most biologically diverse country in the world, harbouring 10-18% of the world’s total biota, amazon, supports global initiatives (EN)
- globalisation reputation as a football nation, famous for the Rio carnival, hosted 2-14 world cup and 2016 olympics (C)
weaknesses:
- relies on primary products for export rather than manufacturing, no added value but does product half of south America’s GDP (EC)
- deforestation and climate change, rainforest, large threat (EN)
- large amount of ethnic groups leading to cultural clash and conflict, politically less stable protests every year since 2013 (C+P)
explain how the characteristics needed for power have changed over time
As our society has developed and technology has advanced there has been a shift in the need for nuclear machinery, advanced technology, a large and educated workforce. I believe there is also an increased need for soft power now due to the increased competition with foreign markets. Exerting your influence through your TNCs, following the actions of countries such as USA
what are the positives of a uni, bi and multi polar world
unipolar world
- complete colonial power, the british empire was able to colonise countries all over the world
- most secure and stable world system, if managed correctly and not done in an exploitive way it will ensure complete security, everywhere adopts the same sustainable and opportunistic ideals
bipolar world
- it is seen as ‘the most stable form of power distribution’ and if the two powers work together and support each other’s views then they will be able to create a world with complete security and control
- leads to rapid innovation and development, competing with another country, the space race/cold war between USSR and USA
multipolar world
- from moving out of the bipolar world it allowed for many weaker states to exercise their strategic autonomy and multi-align themselves with multiple powerful states
- allows for the spread of culture allowing for a growth in soft power as people begin to adopt their way of life, this is argued to be the most essential form of power for long-term prosperity
how have the BRIC countries grown over time?
- they obtained more stable governments meaning that they have more plans in place for development, education and healthcare, seen through china
- they have put in more efforts for education and so they are obtaining a more qualified population, more attractive for investment
- they have become more involved in global trade, some are key trading partners for many countries through developments in manufacturing high-value goods, no longer having to depend on core regions to add value to their resources
summarise rostow’s model of development, indicating what is needed to move onto the next stage
Traditional society, pre-conditions for take off, take-off, drive to maturity, high mass consumption
Traditional society (Dem. Rep of Congo)- subsistence farming, unstable gov, no geopolitical relations, volatile currency, rely on IGOs to add value. NEED: investment in infrastructure, need stable gov to increase investment from charities (no corruption)
Pre-conditions for take off (Chad)- secondary rising, infrastructure developing, NEED: good health care to be able to work, make it more appealing for FDI through lowering taxes, deregulate markets, improve soft power
Take-off (Thailand)- high manufacturing, poor human rights, NEED: currently only making low-value goods (diversify), more smart power, better human rights
Drive to maturity (China)- big rise in TNCs and soft power, growth in inequality, NEED: increase in cultural influence through soft power, china need to adopt democratic views
High mass consumption- technological advancements, high middle class
what are the positives and negatives of rostow’s model?
Positives:
- shows how development, politics and the economy are all linked
- if they had the investment they are likely to grow
Negatives:
- doesn’t take into account that European development comes at the cost of other nations (colonialism)
- not a level playing field, doesn’t start at the same level
- doesn’t take into account geopolitical relations
summarise the world systems theory of development
- he claimed that the core regions drive the world economy, the western core now owns and consumes more than 25% of goods and services
- the peripheral regions rely on the core regions to exploit their raw materials, largely from colonialism where western countries assumed over countries rich in raw materials, unequal trade where core regions added value and therefore made profit from their goods
- he takes a macro-economic approach where all three areas are interconnected and that the global capitalism system still relies on some countries to remain poor to exploit
- explicitly shows the importance of migration
- implies that the semi-periphery are the most important as they drive and fuel growth, they are seeing the most growth, which is fuelled by the core
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the world systems theory of development
Strengths:
- holistic perspective allows for more abstract conclusions
- inclusion of concept of semi-periphery
Weaknesses:
- there are more causes for underdevelopment than just capitalism such as corruption and conflict
- he puts too much of an emphasis on economics and the dominance of capitalism
- core, semi periphery and periphery categories are too vague
what would you say is the most effective development model at explaining changing patterns of power?
Dependency model
- the peripheral countries are indeed currently dependant on the core countries for trade and are most often exploited by the core regions which further hinders their economic prosperity
what does the kondratiev cycle show?
- the global economy is very volatile, it has always been and will always be
- recovery is dependant on innovation, declines and then bounces back with innovation
- refers to cycles, lasting about 40-60 years, experienced by capitalist economies
- a kondratiev wave is referred to a long term economic cycle which is indicated by periods of evolution and self correction, brought about by technological innovation that results in a long period of prosperity
what is an import substitution economy?
autarkic development, substituted anything they needed by using what they produce, favouring your own producers
summarise frank’s dependency model
- argues that a relationship between developed and developing nations is one of dependency, both countries give and take
Core give: manufactured goods, aid, polluting industry and political and economic ideas
Peripheral give: political support, debt repayments, raw materials and brain drain - the core are also dependant on the peripheral countries for their resources, they need the resources to add value
- the core countries supply. Polluting industry, e.g. coca cola
- to escape this cycle the peripheral countries need to retain their primary products and invest in processing and manufacturing, thus adding value and employment
- the updated model shows semi-peripheral countries, BRIC countries
what are the strengths and weaknesses of frank’s dependency model?
Positives:
- simple and timeless, three categories of countries is true, UK add value to imported materials
- mentions politics, shows importance of alliances, rostow doesn’t show this
- acknowledges importance of aid, can demand up to 75% back
Negatives:
- doesn’t acknowledge migration
- only really acknowledges primary and secondary, e.g. India’s tertiary?
- natural disasters, lack of resources and conflict are things that limit development yet they are not mentioned here
how do the developed countries defavorise the developing nations
- they exploit their workforce and resources, as they become wealthier though they will no longer be able to do this
- neo-colonial mechanisms and a net transfer of wealth from developing to developed world are responsible
- tariffs are added to any processed imports, this imbalance in the terms of trade remains unfavourable to developing countries
- to escape this cycle, the developing countries must retain their primary products and invest in processing and manufacturing, thus adding value and employment
how do global superpowers use the world bank to promote free trade and capitalism
- its main role is to help capitalism function particularly through making loans to developing countries for development projects
- over 40% of the total votes lie in the hands of eight of the largest contributors thus enforcing a capitalist mentality in most of their decisions
- in 2016, the USA controlled 16.5% of World Bank votes, all decisions will be made to favour these capitalist countries, reduce trade restrictions in these countries
- the world bank gained a bad reptuation in 1970s and 80s for financing projects that were either environmentally damaging or meant that countries were unable to pay back the loan
- its main role is to help capitalism function- particularly by making loans to developing countries for development projects
How do global superpowers use the IMF to promote free trade and capitalism?
- the IMF is a fund that is used for loans to help those countries facing heavy debts thus helping to stabilise their economies
- the IMF reflects US and EU interests, they can obtain the political decisions that are the most favourable to their interests
- the EU nations collectively have 25% of the IMF’s votes and so their interest are closely tied with the IGO, rather than the interests of the indebted countries
- the IMF promotes capitalism, those who have invested more into the fund have a greater voting power, this is the USA, the top 10 members control over 60% of the IMF’s total voting rights
how do global superpowers use the WTO to promote free trade and capitalism?
- they have favoured the neo-colonialist tendencies of its rich members
- decision making is by mutual agreement but most bargaining favours the EU and the USA
- its aim is to free up global trade and reduce trade barriers by negotiating free trade agreements however these agreements often favour the global superpowers by supporting their industries
- the USA and the EU, as the US are an original member, therefore both of these powers have a ‘large voice’ in the IGO and can protect and advance their economic interests for their businesses and workers to help support growth of their economies.
- The WTO have failed to stop developed nations from dominating the IGO, as they have let them protect their own industries through subsidies, for example with the EU farmer being subsidised, so developing nations have lost out.
- The USA’s power also allows it to sway decision making in its direction, as they win 85% of cases brought and win many cases brought against them.
- Again, the EU and USA clearly combine their power to block policies that infringe on them and bring cases against China to try to diminish their power.
- China is a relatively new member within the WTO but their influence has grown and many other Asian nations vote in accordance with Chinese ideas, to help support trade within the East. However, they have further to go to develop their strength against the more powerful members
how do global superpowers use the WEF to promote free trade and capitalism?
- it is pro free-trade and pro-TNCs, this often favours the richer nations as you can only be accepted into the WEF by invitation, they allow the richest nations that undertake the most trade and have capitalist views, they need to be politically stable
- business CEOs, academics, political elite leaders and IGO representatives attend these meetings in Davos, they often have a very much capitalist view on the world and so the decisions made will favour their political ideologies
- gives superpowers more influence as TNCs can benefit from government policies such as low taxation
- it discusses ideas such as corruption and encourages governments to set up global links
- they work to encourage public-private co-operation and this will enable countries to form trade agreements and aid the expansion of emerging economies
explain what happened to Saudi Arabia in terms of their role in IGOs
- they have been shunned off the UN human rights board, Russia and china are becoming much more powerful in this, very corrupt
- the Saudi Arabian prince had gotten away with murder, lots of crimes, as much as it is legal in their country, this by no means supports the aim of the organisation
what are TNCs referred as and what is the difference between public and state-led TNCs, how does one use the different types of TNCs
‘architects of globalisation’ (exerting soft power)
public TNCs- people can buy shares in them, cultural control and more soft power
state-led TNCs- they are owned by the government, china monopolise their economy, they embrace this
have enough state-owned TNCs (tend to be utilities, e.g. gas, oil) whilst using public TNCs for the spread of soft power and ideologies
what are unicorn companies and explain the changes in the number of these companies
they are a startup company valued at over $1 billion
- there are more unicorn companies than ever before, very much increased after 2014
- improvements in technology, innovation, growth of domestic markets, growth in the middle class
- social media exploded in 2014, marketing platform, growth in influences, this gave the ability to start a business with little overheads, much easier to set up a business
How do public TNCs impact the global economy in terms of technology and trade patterns through the spread of economic and cultural globalisation?
The main companies in the fortune 500 global companies are from north America, Europe and then followed by SE Asia, meaning that our world has increasingly adopted a western culture following their ideologies, the dominance of the US in terms of global trade has meant that they have been able to portray their capitalist ideals into foreign countries
- in the 2000s, global trade increased in value by over 85%, part of this is due to the global shift in manufacturing leading to a shifting economic power to emerging economies, making TNCs extremely powerful, top 200 TNCs made up 25% of the world’s economic output
- UNCTAD estimated in 2013 that TNCs now account for 80% of all global trade
- lots of intellectual property are patented in order to protect their ideas and prevent globalisation allowing for counterfeiting goods, they patent their ideas
- link between areas with the most amount of TNCs and the amount of counterfeited goods, by operating on a global scale they need to be sure that their ideas are not stolen by other countries through cultural globalisation. Form of protection
- TNC creation of new technologies helps to maintain military superiority for hard power
- through patenting goods it means that they can raise money in order to further innovate technology for example, the US has the greatest number of patented goods which allows them to earn money to invest in tech and trade
How do state-led TNCs impact the global economy in terms of technology and trade patterns through the spread of economic and cultural globalisation?
- often these start-led TNCs are used to monopolise their economy and embrace privatisation, they don’t like the idea of sharing ideas and so economic and cultural globalisation is rather restricted, global trade lower
- all profits go back to the state and so in terms of repatriation of profits internationally, this is not the case.
- state-led TNCs do not go through cultural globalisation, they solely operate by the traditional values of the country, not on a global scale
- state-led TNCs are found in countries with communist command economies or mixed economies such as China and Russia and so they do not often promote cultural globalisation and free trade
explain the rise in TNCs
- started in 18th and 19th century, east India company
- in 2015 there were over 75,000 TNCs, top 200 made up 25% of the world’s economic output
- it is argued that the dominance of the USA post 1990s plus input from the WTO. spurred growing, embracing capitalism, they are argued to have a competitive advantage
what is the difference between the Fortune 500 and the global 500
Fortune 500
- america’s largest companies, Walmart no.1 for the past 8 years
- these companies allow for the spread of capitalist and American values
global 500
- world’s largest companies by revenue
- $33.3 trillion revenue in 2019
- employ over 60 million
- saudi aramco emerged as 6th, only developing nation
explain the TNC saudi Aramco
- it is the most valuable company in the world, involving all their assets they are more valuable than apple
- owns 20% of world’s reserves of petroleum
- oil and gas sector accounts for 50% of their GDP
- they have a different legal system due to their religion. they go against capitalist and westernisation due to the qu’aran
Which type of TNC, public or state-led have been more important in assisting China’s rise to superpower status?
State-led
- they operate commercially but all profits go back to the state, they tend to be less global
- china have been able to monopolise their economy through having state-led TNCs, these have made a lot of money, as much as they don’t allow for soft power it has meant that china have been able to expand their GDP
- through the money going back to the state it has meant that China have been smart in their TNC use will all profits going to infrastructure, education, healthcare and energy allowing for rich sovereign wealth funds and neo-colonial investments, this has allowed them to increase their stability
e. g. bank of china
Why is having a high global cultural influence such an important aspect of power and how does this cultural influence link to economic and technological influences?
- through the USA spreading their capitalist and American values it has meant that the have been able to gain soft power, impact of western culture
- the influence of international foods in supermarkets in the UK, soft power is arguably the greatest form of obtaining long-term power
- westernisation has led to technological and economic influences through adopting the idea that accumulating wealth and owning property indicate a successful life. The importance of having the latest technology and the idea that technology can solve problems
- the desire to have access to the world’s most famous global brands is a powerful driving force behind the process of westernisation
- all of the top ten global brands in 2016 originate from the USA, every aspect of their business model will be displaying the American values and ideals and so one may argue that the world is starting to display the American way of life, focus on technology and work hard ethic to be rewarded
- movies that are shown around the world are arguably one of the best ways of spreading your cultural influence as you are able to easily display the way of life and traditions of a country on a global scale
- refer back to benefits of soft power
explain the use of patents
- TNCs invest huge amounts of money in research and development and so ideas and creations are patented to ensure the rights of the inventor are protected, usual for 20 years, during which time they can make a profit from their discovery or invention, this forces innovation, competitors are forced to innovate better products
- the WTO created our current patenting to try and protect ‘western’ companies from competition
- however china is very skilled at creating counterfeited goods
- china havent been able to innovate products that are worth patenting, they dont have the skills or education, hacking and stealing technologies to gain access, counterfeiting in china however they are starting to become a lot more serious on patenting goods
- patents allow for top researchers to fund future research, cure of cancer, no incentive otherwise
what is a patent?
a patent is the granting of the exclusive right of ownership and possession of intellectual property by a state to an inventor for a fixed period of time
what are the downside of patents on global pharmaceuticals
patents on global pharmaceuticals
- little investment in treatment for diseases in developing countries due to little profit, the patents meant that global firms don’t develop rarer medications due to lower revenue, many need access to clean water but it is dirty in many cases
- most patents are held by American or european companies making medication expensive, e.g. new treatments for HIV are very expensive, widespread barrier to HIV treatment in sub-saharan africa
- the patents have meant that competitors are producing sub-standard replacements, perhaps not as safe
BUT
- companies such as glaxosmithkline work with developing countries to improve their image (Melinda gates)
- WTO is working to bend the rules for developing countries and allow cheaper imports, large export costs, get rid of taxes
what is the downside of patents on gm crops
- farmers are forced to sign contracts to either agree to use certain TNC owned fertilisers or to not plant from seed the following year
- GM engineers can prevent their seeds from germinating so every year new seeds need to be bought
- over 1 billion of the worlds poorest people rely on saved seeds and instead have to buy new ones every year
- under patent laws they own every crop produced by their seeds, the crops are controlled by TNCs
how do patents reinforce the development models
- reinforces the dependency theory of frank, dependant on the source countries for medication, they have to pay whatever the price or go to sub-standard substitutes
- questions rostow’s model as hampering the development of poorer nations, not giving access to drugs meaning people are dying, removing patents would lead to the global derivation of communism
what are the three ways in which superpowers and emerging national play a key role in global action (explained)?
1) crisis response
- poor nations rely on aid from superpowers for recovery, e.g. Haiti, their appeals for assistance after their hurricane only brought in 25% of what it needed
- they are less resilient to crises and so rely on the richer nations for recovery
- natural disasters, famine or a serious disease outbreak
- the 2014 ebola epidemic, the USA, UK and france led the crisis response in Liberia, Sierra Leone and guinea, deploying military and medical assets
2) conflict
- the usa supporting Afghanistan through providing weapons and recruiting fighters, with the American funding they resisted soviet troops, preventing the conflict spreading out into other countries
- responding to conflict, such as the threat from al-qaeda or ISIS
- since 2001, the USA has led a global effort against islamic terroism in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, east africa and the Middle East
3) climate change
- they are being called upon to play a key role in global action against climate change
- they are the largest emitters and so they are key to engaging in climate agreements
explain the UN security council and their problems
- rose after WW2 when Roosevelt envisioned a council including USA, UK, Russia and china to be responsible in maintaining global peace, france joined after, this was done to ensure global security, there are 10 other non-permanent members
their role:
- to maintain international peace and security through cooperating in solving international problems and harmonise the actions of nations
step 1: special convoys, mediation fact finding missions
step 2: if things become hostile they must issue ceasefire directives, deploy peacekeeping troops
step 3: enforcement measures including economic sanctions, withdrawal of diplomats or an arms embargoes (ban on buying arms)
step 4: the authorisation of ‘all necessary measures’ by multinational forces, putting in stooped, man to man conflict
cons:
- bureaucratic (lots of paperwork)
- everyone has a different political ideology and so it is hard to come to big decisions
what is geopolitical intervention?
when you get involved in a different country for political reasons
what are the military, economic and environmental alliances?
military - NATO - ANZUS economic -NAFTA - EU - ASEAN environmental - IPCC
for NATO: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved: 30 members
their role: to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political or military means and promote democratic values and prevent conflict through the peaceful resolution of disputes
pros:
- their share interest of keeping the west together against the soviet threat
- shared ideologies and no conflicts in interests, work together on shared challenges, e.g. the rise of North Korea
- they transformed Europe after the war from one that was divided to one that is free and at peace, promoted the need for cooperation to promote global peace, geopolitical stability
cons:
- western norms and values are challenged due to the rise of the east and powers such as china with a growing geostrategic importance of the pacific and Indian ocean
- they are a very large alliance and so it is difficult for decisions to be made quickly
for ANZUS: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved: Australia, New Zealand and the USA
their role: to co-operate on military matters in the pacific and beyond
pros: it has helped the USA to maintain its military presence in the pacific and for Australia and new Zealand to provide military forces for Afghanistan
cons: makes australia and new Zealand more at risk from north korea due to their disagreements with the US, target for hostile countries like north korea to get better hold of the US
for the EU: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved: 31 member states
their role: aims to bind economies and reduce trade barriers between the member states through adopting a common set of values governing trade facilitated through their single currency
pros:
- it adopts a policy of convergence to reduce inequalities between its richest and poorest countries
- through having set regulations it allows for a level playing field
- fairness and global stability as all to the same standard
cons: increased tensions between those who support a greater convergence and right-wing political parties calling for separation
for NAFTA: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved: USA, canada and Mexico
what is their main role:
- to eliminate any barriers to trade between the three countries and boost trade/prosperity, they aim to resolve any trade disputes seen through tensions from unemployment
pros:
- quadrupled trade, boosted economic growth and lowered prices for consumers
- they have been able to reduce their reliance on the Middle East for oil
- fostering a neutral environment in order to address shared challenges and promote peace and global stability, previous disputes with US workers moving to Mexico
- more interdependent economies in car manufacturing parts are found in all 3 countries and so this reduces their reliance on Japanese imports, they work together to promote development
cons:
- NAFTA’s competitive pressure on Mexico led to increase in fertilisers, environmental damage
- conflicts with those moving to Mexico for cheaper manufacturing
- workers in Mexico are often exploited
for ASEAN: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved:
ten southeast Asian nations
what is its role:
they promote the economic growth of their economies through co-operation and reducing trade barriers within member states to share expertise
pros:
- they can work together in addressing shared issues such as those in the south china sea
- build economic prosperity from ensuring protection from the exploitation of richer nations by sharing resources
cons:
- they have different economic situations, political institutions and religions making it difficult to implement effective policies for all members
for IPCC: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved:
they currently have 195 members
their role:
- to provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies
- their reports are also a key input into international climate change negotiations
pros:
- they have allowed for governments to work together and co-operate in solving the issue of climate change, shared interests, paris agreement
- through climate change being addressed through their comprehensive scientific reports it would lead to fewer environmental refugees meaning more peace and less unrest
cons:
- very large number of members, how are they to control the actions of these businesses, long consultation is needed for stability
- revealed preference theory, not legally binding
for un security council-peacekeeping missions: what is their main role and what are their pros and cons
their role:
- help to monitor and diffuse tensions between groups, promote peace and security
- helps host countries to become more resilient to conflict, by addressing root causes of conflict
positives in ensuring geopolitical stability:
- through their efforts in ensuring global peace it means that groups are less likely to respond in an aggressive way, less unrest
- through helping innocent people and refugees as seen in the sudanese crisis through setting up refugee camps it ensured geopolitical stability through minimising the conflict that could arise through the movement of people
cons:
- their success is often debated often with minimal results from their missions, often NATO need to step up in order to achieve any sort of positive result
explain the overlap between economic and military alliances and geostrategy
it creates interdependence in terms of geostrategy
- Economic prosperity requires geopolitical stability which is ensured by military alliances
explain the UN
- formed in 1945, 51 nations came together to uphold international justice, social progress, protection of human rights and prevent the start of WW3
- they started to deal with increasingly complex issues including famine, globalisation, problems with development and overpopulation and the marginalisation of women
- they formed the millennium goals but these were not achived
- they now have 193 members and spend $40 billion
explain the international court of justice and how it ensures global stability
- it is the judicial branch of the UN and settles disputes between UN member countries and advices on international law
- The Court settles legal disputes by passing moral judgements in accordance with international law.
- The court cannot include more than one national of the same state and therefore this ensures that each country is represented, preventing one absolute decision maker.
- The ICC is also considered to be a major tool by which the international community can deter international crime by creating higher expectations and meaning that dictators are not above the law – they can be held accountable for their actions
explain how the UN’s involvement with climate change has ensured geopolitical stability
They carry out extensive research so that the international community is aware of what is happening and what might happen in the future. Famine and drought can cause civil unrest.
- Were central to the Marrakesh agreement where developed nations have agreed to help developing countries reach climate goals by providing funding and suppling green technology. This helps to maintain geopolitical stability because countries work together to ensure climate goals are met meaning there is less conflict over natural resources (e.g. water).
- the 2015 Paris agreement marked when countries agreed to significantly reduce emissions
- However, it is weakened by a lack of accountability/consequences meaning it is not legally binding and there is no real incentive to comply (Revealed Preference Theory). Failure to do so may cause conflict.
which alliances are the most or least effective
Most effective- NATO, through shared ideologies in ensuring global stability and peace it means that they are to achieve the greatest success in ensuring the protection of the population, quite a big group which have been able to achieve great things, their success in resembling the world after the world war demonstrates their power in achieving change
Least effective- the EU, they are starting to adopt different visions for the future of our world economy, through being such a large bloc it means that there is a lot of conflict of interests and so it is hard for them to come to formal agreements, the threat that Brexit has on the rest of the eu members as through losing the UK they will lose an essential trading partner and if their leave proves to be beneficial then others might follow in their steps
why do superpowers have a high demand for resources?
- rising middle class means that there is an increased demand for fossil fuels as they start to use resource-intensive appliances
- due to their large population it leads to them demanding more food and water
- rising wealth contributes in the increase in demand for minerals as they turn towards more premium products
- rising demand for consumer goods from the rise in the wealthy, perfume consumption up by 133%
- threatened water resources as they all have showers and toilets due to their wealth, increasing consumerism
explain what environmental degradation is, linking in overfarming and desertification
environmental degradation- a worsening in the quality of the environment
overarming leads to degradation that eventually leads to desertification
what impact is this high demand of resources having on the environment? (form synoptic links)
- overfarming is leading to land degradation and therefore leads to desertification
- carbon footprint of population is increasing due the increased meat consumption, need for resources results in higher carbon emissions due to need for extraction
- the need for resources such as palm oil is leading to forest loss as they are having to burn down natural forest (carbon release) but soon the soils nutrients will be insufficient, resulting in desertification forest loss and so less carbon sequestration and more carbon to be released
- flooding through the extraction of groundwater due to higher demand, leading to dry soils and therefore this can become impermeable as a salt crust is formed
explain what superpower resource demands are having on emissions
global carbon emissions in 2015
1) China (29%)
2) USA (14%)
3) EU (10%)
- eastern countries are seeing increasing co2 emissions, Asia and Oceania up by 7.5%, as they develop
- russia have seen decreases in emissions perhaps not as they are trying to reduce emissions but due to their fall in manufacturing and failing economy, when they bounce back this is scheduled to go back up again
- africa have very low emissions, South Africa is the main emitter (emerging nation)
- between 1990 and 2014 china’s emissions increased by 286%- over 5 times the rate of global increase
- superpowers, exceptionally large consumer society, they can afford polluting appliances
- any attempt to reduce greenhouse gases will fail until big emitters agree as they contribute so much
how do superpower resource demands for food cause environmental degradation
- china’s large pork industry as a result of the rising wealth
- as their incomes rise they can afford to eat more and more meat, cattle pumping out methane
- India’s demand for food and water are unsustainable as even today India struggles with adequate water supply
- the impact of overpopulation in superpower nations is causing environmental degradation due to the high rise in the amount of yield to satisfy demand, environmentally harmful methods of farming
what is happening to industrial water used, forest loss and global warming as a result of superpower resource needs
industrial water use
- hydroponic farming is farming in water
- USA’s largest exporter in agriculture and therefore has complex irrigation systems, uses the most water
forest loss
- africa and south America, rainforest loss
- europe’s is extremely low
global warming
- the US, USA and India have caused a disproportionate amount of global warming relative to its size
- as counties globalise and expand their economies they increase their emissions, globalisation = environmental degradation, need for degrowth
can you become a global superpower without damaging the environment?
yes:
- through the use of renewable energy you can develop further whilst protecting the environment
- when you have reached a certain stage you can afford to run your economy on a cleaner model, as seen in china
- the rise fa. green Brazil proves its success through 47% of energy being green
- growing incomes leads to the ability to develop to purchase sustainable products, electric cars
no:
- you need to undertake manufacturing in order to develop your economy
- globalisation and the increase in global supply chains, environmental damage through transport costs
- our economy is run on carbon emissions, would need large scale restructuring which is not possible for emerging markets
- the emissions of the USA as no.1 emitter of carbon imply that it is not possible to achieve hegemony/superpower status without emitting
how does climate impact gender equality, income poverty and conflict and security
gender equality- due to water scarcity it has meant that in terms of pregnancy and child birth they require. a lot of water and fluids, this leads to them being more likely to die from dehydration
climate change leads to energy and water insecurity leading to income poverty leading to conflict and insecurity
climate change leads to food security (overbooked soils) which leads to income poverty
what are the three UN climate change conferences?
KYOTA AGREEMENT 1997
- first time countries agreed to cut greenhouse gases over a 5 year period
- they agreed on varying degrees
EU- 8% (combined emissions, perhaps easier to cut down collectively)
USA- 7%
Russia- 0%
The USA pulled out of this perhaps as a lot fo money comes from manufacturing, it is a very large country, they all drive big cars, varying climates rely on heating and air con
PARIS AGREEMENT 2015
- to keep global temps below 2ºC above preindustrial temps
- rich countries must financially support developing countries to use renewable resources
- nearly 200 countries agreed, the USA agreed but then trump pulled out once in power, china and russia agreed
MARRAKESH 2016
- focused on helping developing nations to transition to renewable energy
- agreeing funds from developed nations to developing nations
- developed having to help, the USA have had their time of industrialisation, their turn now, dependency
- the protection of renewable energy were also agreed
what is china’s approach to renewable energy?
- they have been heavily investing in renewable energy as they look towards technological innovation, they want to patent goods
- they are using other countries to do polluting jobs in order to make their country look good
- they have moved polluting industries to the countryside as it is the urban areas which are measured for pollution
explain the willingness of the USA to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- they have shown global leadership since 2005 reduced global emissions most of all, from 2005-15 US wind power tripled in output and solar energy by ten times
- Obama introduced measures to reduce emissions through greater energy efficiency, carbon pollution standards for electricity generation and promoting renewable energy
- president Biden has promoted a more forward thinking to climate change
NO:
- trump is in favour of ‘making America great again’ by increasing manufacturing which will ultimately increase emissions, embraces nationalism and wants to protect from china’s rise
- reducing energy emissions would cost energy companies money, thus harming the economy, despite being the 2nd largest GDP, business executives could not be in favour of this
explain the willingness of the EU to act to reduce carbon emissions
54% of people see climate change as a serious problem
YES:
- they have been at the forefront of climate initiatives, e.g. emissions reductions (working with manufacturers of vehicles) and grants to encourage renewable energy
- by 2020, they aim to have cut overall energy use by 20%
- they provide large grants for companies to convert to or invest in renewable eerngy
- they have the money to invest, they patent a lot
NO:
- the CAP protected european farmers from imports which resulted in intensive farming methods that were extremely harmful to the environment, under criticism for their farming methods
explain the willingness of Russia to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- they surprisingly signed up to the 2015 Paris agreement
- they have invested heavily in nano-technology, energy efficiency and laws, perhaps to increase soft power and improve geo-political relations
- In 1990 they promised to reduce emissions by 30%, they actually reduced them by 35% (mainly due to their economic crash) their emissions will most likely increase as they recover
NO:
- their economy is heavily reliant on oil, they are not interested in stopping this
- as its economy stabilises it is likely that they will see an increase in emissions
explain the willingness of China to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- in 2016 they finally agreed to reduce emissions and is now heavily investing in renewable resources, find a comparative advantage, innovation
- they’ve become increasingly concerned about their reputation, through going green they can improve their reputation, spending lots of money on going green
- province of Qinghai ran on 100% renewable energy for 7 days proving it is possible, provided for their pop of 5.6 million people
- they have accepted that things cannot return back to normal after COVID, expanded initiatives such as ‘grain for green’ and the ‘ecological function zoning’
- in 2018, china’s renewable consumption was 38% larger than the USAs and triple that of Germany, 29% growth in renewables in 2018 alone
NO:
- in 2018 manufacturing still accounted for 41% of Chinese GDP
- coal still accounts for 58% of china’s total primary energy consumption in 2018
- only 18% of china’s pop see climate change as a serious issue, their focus is largely on economic development not environmental issues, they agreed to reduce emissions after 2030
what is the definition of a malthusian crisis and explain what boserup believed in with population increase
malthusian crisis- when resources aren’t sufficient for the growing population, people must die, perhaps get rid of the poor people that do not contribute to society
boserup- as population increases it will initiate innovation and technological advancements
compared to the rest of the world, how significant are the contributions that superpowers make to carbon emissions and global warming
- china and USA have the worst air pollution, the two highest GDP countries have the greatest emissions, relationship
- Africa have very low emissions with south Africa being the main emitter (BRICS nation, emerging)
- any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail until the big emitters agree as they account for such a large percentage of global emissions
- the USA and China have been reluctant to set emission reduction targets whereas the EU lead in climate action, the EU and US emission are static or falling (greater efficiency and some green policies) but china’s emissions are still rising (emerging manufacturing)
- the superpowers are very globalised and so they operate on a global scale resulting in high emissions from transport of goods internationally
Explain the reasons why there are differences in the willingness to act on environment issues
- their economy may be centralised towards an emitting industry (USA, manufacturing) (russia, oil)
- their degree of development, not all can afford to engage in environmental practises, the EU have patented many goods and so they have the money to invest
- if they have a need to develop their soft power, perhaps they need to improve their reputation (China)
- the intentions and values of the political figures, (e.g. EU, Biden vs Trump)
what is the impact of the rise in middle-class consumption on resources and the environment?
- depletion of water resources with increased dishwashes, pools and daily showers
- increased demand for meat, dairy products and sugar as these countries transition to western diets. (cattle=GGs)
- availability of rare minerals decreases due to the increase in spending in electrical, medical and laser devices (coltain)
- damage to ecosystems as abstraction of resources becomes more illegal and uncontrolled due to the rise in demand leading to exploitation of the environment, perhaps to a permanent damage to ecosystems, desertification
- more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in order to access raw materials
- more use of water and therefore more polluted waste water
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact rare earths in terms of the environment, price and availability
- business of generating earth elements worth US$4 billion a year, collective worth of companies estimated at $5 trillion
- cerium (catalytic convertors) and neodymium (wind turbines and hybrid cars)
environment
- a great deal of water, acid and electricity is used in extraction process to serape the ore from toxins, many of which are carcinogenic
- processing one tonne of rare earths can produce 2000 tonnes of toxic waste, if this mixes with surface water it will have a major environmental impact
- in Baotou (a small village in china), 10 million tonnes of waste water per year is pumped into containment ponds from where it seeps into groundwater and drinking sources
price
- the higher value of these materials have meant the expansion of mining in other parts of the world due to economic benefits
- more basic metals such as copper, tin and platinum at risk of supply shortages and dramatic price changes
- as china’s growth has slowed since 2010, commodity prices have fall back due to lower demand
availability
- in recent years china have restricted the refining and eventual export of the products to keep prices high
- the demand for lithium-based batteries is very high and could be hard to meet in the future
- china has tried to guarantee commodity supplies by buying up companies overseas by investing in africa to supply commodities
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact water in terms of the environment, price and availability
Environment
- the increase in demand of water has meant that people are going towards more environmentally harmful sources of wate, not sustainable
Price
- prices are expected to rise significantly due to the increase in water demand and the increase in water scarcity, china has double the UN definition of water scarcity
- prices are rising due to the increase in the privatisation of water, due to the lack of water available privately owned water supplies are able to push prices up significantly, leading to conflict amongst residents, water crisis in Bolivia
Availability
- In some states of India, groundwater is being used three times faster than it can be replenished, by 2030 60% of areas will be facing water scarcity
- As glaciers melt and river discharge decreases due to their source diminishing, climate change could make the availability of water worse
- many Californian farmers are using more groundwater but the water table is dropping and ground subsidence has been noted
- some emerging powers are already experiencing water supply problems, especially India
- in Beijing total consumption exceeded supply by 70% in 2012 as more residents installed showers and flush toilets
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact oil in terms of the environment, price and availability
Environment
- global oil demand was about 95 million barrels per day in 2015, many environmental impacts, oil leaks, global warming, rise by around 30% by 2030
- there will be more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in the quest to access raw materials
Price
- meeting the demand of oil may lead to price rises and/or supply shortages, supply is quite inelastic
- through the increasing demand it can lead to Saudi Arabia influencing the price of oil by cutting back supply leading to a significant rise in price.
Availability
- predictions that oil will run out by 2061, ‘peak oil’ has certainly passed which has put pressure on more remote areas such as the Arctic Ocean from oil exploitation
- as the middle class increases it will lead to them having higher aspirations to own a car, and therefore the increase in income can cause a proportionately bigger % increase in demand
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact staple grains in terms of the environment, price and availability
- china have seen cereal consumption go up by 364%
Environment
- the green revolution in India caused soil degradation and chemical runoff of excess fertilisers resulting in eutrophication
- consumption of rice has increased by 50% in sub-Saharan Africa causing further concerns for the environmental impacts
Price
- with the fall in the amount of staple grains being grown it could lead to prices rising, squeezing the poorest
- prices of wheat, corn, soybeans and rice are already twice what they were in 2000 through the straining soy and grain reserves
Availability
- land once used for staple food grains will be converted to produce meat and dairy products, loss in grains being produced
- cereal consumption in China has gone up by 364% and meat by 99%
- growers are going to have to feed twice as many city inhabitants by 2040
give some statistics on the rise of the middle class
- the global middle class is expected to increase from 2 billion in 2012 to 5 billion by 2030
- in 2016 china had 150 million middle class members, expected to reach one billion by 2030
- 4.9 billion people middle class in 2020, 3.2 billion of this in Asia
other than staple grains what is happening to demand for food and metal industry as middle income earners rise
- demand for meat, dairy products and sugar will also rise as these countries transition to ‘western’ diets
- changing diets in china leading to rise in obesity
- china’s demand for raw materials is such that it accounted for 90% of the global growth in sea traffic in the 21st century
- china’s steel industry is biggest in the world, a steel industry x4 the size of the USAs, they are the biggest producer and consumer of steel in the world
explain why tensions can arise over resources in disputed areas such as the arctic
- multiple borders cross leading to conflict arising as people try to claim land for resources, several national claims to large parts of the arctic
- any attempt to drill for oil and gas in the arctic could become a source of diplomatic conflict
- as resources become increasingly scarce it means that countries can become increasingly violent in terms of gaining resources, e.g. setting ships alight
- the resources in the arctic are worth a lot of money, Russia’s share of the arctic is worth $22 trillion and there is a lot there for the economies in order to develop, the Scandinavian countries that have access to these resources rely on this in developing their weaker economy
what is the long term solution to disputes over resources (in the arctic)
- come to agreements as to what area of the arctic they own in order to prevent conflict and violence, countries set up and manage national parks
- could create an arctic global sanctuary where none of the resources are touched in order to preserve the natural environment, this would result in a loss of conflict as no one could access the resources
- create more legally-binding agreements in order to create a larger threat for those who choose to go against agreements, legal action
- innovations often solve disputes in the long term
- energy independence, common set of rules for all the players involved
give a brief explanation of what is happening in the arctic in terms of the tensions arising
- it is the deepest oil-filled basin in the world
- multiple borders cross leading to conflict arising as people try to claim land for resources, the US, canada, russia, Norway, Iceland and Denmark all have claims over large areas of the arctic
- holds 90 billion barrels of oil, holds 30% of undiscovered gas and 13% undiscovered oil
- UN convention on the law of the sea (UNCLOS) states that anyone can lay claim to land (seabed and resources) that is 200 nautical miles from its coastline, these zones overlap in the case of the arctic
- the north-west passage water is deeper than the Panama route, they can transport more cargo, cheaper and produce less emissions, countries claim this is an international passage, these maritime trade routes are now becoming highly monopolised
- because of climate change ice is thawing, allowing for new shipping routes, north-west passage allows for shorter distance time, drilling for oil and gas has also increased through the new areas to explore due to the ice melting
what are the conflicts/viewpoints of different countries on the arctic
- USA argue that the current allocations are not fair, US’ share of the arctic said to be worth $8 trillion whereas Russia’s is $22 trillion, they rejected to sign the convention on the law of the seas
- since 2002 canada has carried out military exercises in the arctic, Norway expanded its navy, russia carries out arctic bomber patrols and Denmark is creating an arctic military command and response force
- in 2007, a Russian submarine sailed beneath the North Pole and planted a titanium Russian flag on the seabed claiming the territory
- the eu and nine of the biggest fishing nations have signed an agreement to temporarily prohibit fishing in the central arctic for 16 years in order to allow scientific research to examine the area unhindered
- Since 2007, military patrols and activity have increased in the Arctic, as each country shows how interested it is in the area, and willing to defend its claims.
what is the economic, environmental and political importance of the arctic
economic
- the resources found or still undiscovered in the arctic are worth trillions, Russia’s share worth $22 trillion
- important for the future of oil, will this importance decrease?
- allows for cheaper transport routes
environmental
- permafrost and glaciers contain lots of greenhouse gases so cant risk releasing these gases due to climate change
- the arctic, a mixture of freshwater and seawater influences ocean currents around the world
political
- the convention on the law of the seas allows for future gain in terms of territory
- massive geopolitical significance, fight for power, obtaining extremely valuable resources that give countries a comparative advantage
what is the exclusive economic zone (arctic)
the area of ocean extending 200 nautical miles beyond the coastline (or to the edge of the continental shelf), over which a nation controls the sea and sub-sea resources. The EEZ borders are decided by the UN in the event of a dispute
what are the overall problems with the arctic ?
- any attempt to drill oil and gas in the arctic could become a source of diplomatic conflict
- risk of environmental disaster is high due to large oil spills contaminating the largely untouched ecosystem with an indigenous pop
- the attitude of conversation may changes as resources elsewhere become scarce and people look at the arctic
superpowers and emerging nations need physical resources and often they must turn to international trade which is risky due to trading with countries with unstable regimes (Iran) or during conflicts trade routes and supply might be blocked
what are three options for managing the arctic?
1) business as usual
- individual territorial areas are managed by the respective countries, self regulation and a reactive approach to issues tackled by global legislation e.g. UNCLOS
2) arctic framework
- set up under the 1966 Ottawa declaration and involves the 8 arctic countries
- this is solely a forum but could become a treaty-based regulatory body
- in the future they could adopt a more proactive approach in managing the arctic
3) arctic global sanctuary
- it would create a biosphere reserve as suggested by Greenpeace in 2012 and leave the area untouched
- this was not widely accepted due to the high levels of extraction of resources
- the arctic is also less isolated than regions with similar protection programmes (Antarctic = international antarctic treaty) and have a significant population living in the arctic circle meaning that this would be unreasonable
give 3 statistics on counterfeiting
- the domestic value of US counterfeit seizures totals $260.7 million
- counterfeiting costs the G20 $85 billion per year
- 3.3% of all global trade is counterfeit goods, country most affected is the USA
what is the problem with counterfeiting on economic tensions and TNC investment?
TNC INVESTMENT
- counterfeiting reduces the incentive to innovate, they spend billions on innovation for people to cheaply couterfeit their ideas
- people introducing counterfeited goods reduces sales for TNCs and so lower tax revenues and less growth
- often organised groups/gangs, they won’t pay tax for their goods and so china’s gov won’t get tax revenue
- TNCs are reluctant to set up or invest in china as their profits are likely to be reduced, they fear IP theft
- the Chinese gov dont act on counterfeiting as employees will pay tax and then spend it in china which means gov revenue will go up even if firms dont pay tax
- counterfeit goods sales account for 5-8% of China’s GDP, harder to make trade deals with china
ECONOMIC TENSIONS
- china cyber hacks the US’ ideas, they steal their product details and counterfeit, zero trust between china and the US
- china do not create the chips for apple as they would just steal their chip idea
- trade agreements are hard to finalise if one side believes they won’t get a good deal
explain emerging economies and their vulnerability to counterfeiting
- they are very vulnerable, it has found a place in africa
- as china innovates they want to protect its own industries and so patent applications are increasing
- Nigerian trade talks have broken down over faulty electrical goods and fires, counterfeiting in emerging nations in electrical goods has led to the promotion of sub-standard products, can be very dangerous, often lesser quality, they put consumers at risk
explain the laws behind counterfeiting
- it constitutes an international crime against intellectual property rights under WTO rules
- trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights (known as TRIPS), it is part of long-standing attempts to negotiate international rights for companies
what is a sphere of influence?
a physical region over which a country believes it has economic, military, cultural or political rights. often they extend beyond the borders of a country and represents a region where the country believes it has the right to influence the policies of other countries, e.g. china into africa
which global players are involved in the conflict of the south china sea and why?
Brunei + Malaysia- claimed sovereignty over southern parts of the sea and some of Spratly Islands
The Philippines- asserts ownership of the Spratly archipelago and the Scarborough Shoal
Taiwan
Vietnam- claims sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands
China’s claims are based on assertation that the disputed islands are Chinese territory because they’re sitting on an extension of its continental shelf. China’s territorial claim clearly overlaps the claims of the other countries which has led to much conflict, resulting in China setting up military bases in the Spratly Islands, including a 3km long aircraft runway on Fiery Cross Reef. Many countries are worried about this development. They will be used for military purposes even though they built it saying it was to help ecosystems.
China say the nine-dash line is legal binding however other players do not believe this, Philippines going to the UN, law of the sea that China signed, surely it is legally binding if they signed it, the USA did not sign it and so they believe they can do whatever what they want
give a rough timeline of the events that have taken place in the south china sea
1947- the republic of china government publishes an eleven-dash line on a map which claims the whole of the SCS including waters adjacent to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam
1982- UNCLOS is established, defines the rights and responsibilities of nations in their use of surrounding waters based on exclusive economic zones and continental shelves
2002- China and the ten ASEAN states reach an agreement on the ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, in the aim to ease tensions and create guidelines for conflict resolution, first time China accepts a multilateral approach to the issue
2011- US affirms interest in South China Sea, foreign policy shift towards a focus on Asia
2012- China detains 21 Vietnamese fishermen in the Paracel Islands, alleging they had been fishing in Chinese waters illegally
2013- China announces an air defence identification zone in the east china sea claiming the right to monitor and intercept aircraft it finds within the zone
2016- satellite imagery shows China expanding Tree Island and North Island in the Paracels
2018- the ASEAN defence ministers sink the world’s first multilateral air guidelines aimed at ensuring safe passage for military aircraft and for ships over the high seas.
In June 2019 a Philippine fishing boat sunk after it was struck by a Chinese vessel
what are the synoptic links for the south china sea
3.4(a): Global shift- oceans such as the South China Sea have become increasingly important for international trade as these waters are so essential in connecting the emerging east, the ships passing through these waters are said to carry over US$5 trillion in trade per year, including 25% of all oil carried by sea, nearly 40% of China’s total trade in 2016 transited through the South China Sea 3.4(b) Environmental problems in developing countries- increased need for resources as we have seen rising consumerism, over-exploitation of resources to meet demand (risk of mass oil spills) 7.1 Geopolitical power and its characteristics- the need for smart power through gaining access to resources, increased need for achieving access to resource-rich areas as we see the reduction in available resources as a result of climate change and the rising pop and wealth, the USA forming alliances with the Philippines 7.6(c) Middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers- the increase in middle class leads to increased need for resources and therefore countries adopt a more forceful approach in gaining access to these resources, sinking and setting fire to boats that enter their territory with a want to extract their resources IGOs influence on decision making, ASEAN and UN have intervened
explain the impacts on the people and the environment of the conflicts around the south china sea
impacts on the people
• Violence of their retaliation measures through setting boats alight has led to many conflicts
• The increased pollution in waters due to mass oil spills and pollution from boats has led to contaminated water supplies for developing players around the sea, host of diseases, e.g. cholera and worms
• Allies formed in the south china sea (US and Philippines) lays the foundations for future investments, increase in trade and therefore economic growth and therefore social spending, increases the influence of democratic values
• The disparity within the different players has meant that superpowers such as China dominate over the physical resources, they have the best boats and military compared to Brunei who will most likely be unsuccessful in obtaining resources (lack of hard power)
impacts on the environment
• The expansion of tree island north island in the paracels has led to a disruption in natural ecosystems and scenic beauty
• The scale of extraction of oil in the sea has led to mass oil spills, polluting the waters and killing masses of fish and biodiversity, getting into the food chain
• The implementation of military bases and checks has led to an increase in emissions from boats, disrupting the environment
• Exploitation of natural resources, finite resources
explain the impacts on the people and the environment of the conflicts around the western russia/Eastern Europe conflicts
impacts on people
- Loss of autonomy as they are now part of an East-West power struggle.
- The open conflict in Crimea has led to the forced displacement of tens of thousands of people, as well as hundreds of deaths.
- Collapse of tourism industry as Russian military presence makes the area unappealing. This disrupts peoples’ livelihood’s as approximately 70% of tourists were from Ukraine.
- The build up of armed forces in the Baltic States created a country of insecurity and discomfort
- Ethnic divisions formed in Ukraine resulting in many conflicts of interests, killed tens of thousands of people, protests in the streets
- The Ukraine have become the target of a number of cyberattacks, power blackouts
impacts on the environment
• It will reduce the size of Ukraine’s EEZ in the Black Sea. This will prevent them from extracting hydrocarbons from the sea, creating environmental benefits. However, if these fall to Russia, it may exacerbate environmental degradation.
• Its geo-strategic location with large masses of resources (oil) has led to an increase in stress on the physical environment, Russia want to join their oil reserves and exploit it before protection measures come into place
explain the conflict occurring in Eastern Europe
Eastern European countries joining the EU, and moves by Georgia and Ukraine to do so, angered Russia, leading to the Russian invasions of parts of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, as well as a build up of NATO armed forces in the Baltic States
- after the USSR collapsed in 1991 many Eastern European countries felt a desire for independence and to break away from Russian influence, Eastern European states went to join the EU with western areas bordering russia (Belarus) are still influenced by russia in terms of their economy, culture and political systems
- some former soviet states such as the ukraine have looked towards NATO and the EU, they are very against Russia’s use of hard power on the country, cybersecurity (hacking) and disrupting supply chains, huge threat
- NATO want the Ukraine, put in troops. next to border and put in western influences in the country (freedom and democracy), easy invasion, since the Cold War they have wanted to expand east and get countries to join europe and therefore NATO, in 2008 Ukraine asked to join nato
- the 2010 Ukraine election was one candidate routing towards sustaining ties to Russia and the other to join europe, Russian ties are in the east, the leader was very close to Putin, corruption, he got overthrown and interim gov was introduced
- russia entered crimea and put in troops (hard power, tanks) to intimidate and let the people vote, everyone voted to stay in Russian federation
- NATO havent acted on the invasion of crimea, they dont see it as a big deal, they focus on other things
explain what has happened to the economic centre of gravity?
it has moved as economic gain might
- it has shifted from the west well into the east recently, however western values are still just as influential
what are 5 reasons for china’s investment in africa
- china’s belt and road initiative (2013), their plan to open out global trade markets, maximise trade with new markets, $1 trillion plan, Tazara railway erected in 1976, railway is the most efficient way for transporting freight and people (inter-model containerisation), migration leading to economic development
- perhaps it is to gain influence rather than for economic gain, strategic policy that they want to gain soft power
- diplomacy and allies help gain power in IGOs, voting power
- natural resources in order to obtain power, in 2010 80% of all african exports to china were minerals
- fewer strings attached, no human rights, exploitation
what is china investing in Kenya and what are the benefits and drawbacks to Kenya of this investment
Their investment is very much centralised around infrastructure developments in the country, building sufficient roads and railways in order to transport goods to Kenyan ports and therefore to other nations, access the Indian Ocean
The Maritime Silk Road (MSR) forms one part of the BRI and it involes the upgrading of the Mombasa Port, the building of a new ultra-modern port in Lamu and the construction of a new standard gauge railway line (SGR). The railways line is estimated to cost $25 billion, 90% of that being financed by China EXIM Bank
Kenya’s geographical advantage and comparative strength in political stability and economic development has made Kenya China’s focal point in their ‘One belt one road’ policy
A $3.2 billion railway that links the capital of Nairobi to Mombasa’s port
benefits:
Kenya has become the second-largest economy in the East African region, fourth largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
According to the World Bank’s Doing Business Index, Kenya has risen over 40 places to rank 80 in 2017
Ernst & Young identifies Kenya as the second most attractive investment destination in Africa after Morocco
drawbacks:
Kenya was identified as one of three African countries at most risk of debt distress due to its participation in its Belt and Road initiative
Kenya’s public debt has surpassed $50 billion, they owe 72% of its bilateral debt and 21% of its overall debt to China
The USA refer to China’s involvement in Kenya as a form of ‘debt-trap diplomacy’
what is china investing in Djibouti and what are the benefits and drawbacks to Djibouti of this investment
What are they investing in?
They are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
China want to take advantage of their geo-strategic location, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, very close to the Middle East’s oil
China are building a $3.5 billion free-trade zone, expected to be Africa’s largest
Infrastructure investments, a railway and two airports ($420 million contract) and a pipeline to supply Djibouti with water from Ethiopia ($320 million contract)
benefits:
The free trade zone that is being built in Djibouti is expected to create 200,000 new jobs and handle over $7 billion in trade from 2018 to 2020
drawbacks:
Their public external debt is said to have risen from 50% of their GDP in 2016 to 104% by the end of 2018, much based on its Chinese lending, in 2018 it was estimated that they owed at least $1.2 billion to China
what are the overall benefits and drawbacks to African countries of investment from china
positives:
- The free trade zone that is being built in Djibouti is expected to create 200,000 new jobs and handle over $7 billion in trade from 2018 to 2020
- $13 billion investment into infrastructure, greater connectivity, reduce transport costs across the country, become more attractive for investment, TNCs
negatives:
- ‘debt-trap diplomacy’, $132 billion loans from china to africa between 2006 and 2017, public debt in Kenya equates to 60% of GDP
- environmental degradation, exploitation of natural resources due to fewer regulations, coltan
- local markers put out of business, EOS of china
what are the overall benefits and drawbacks to china of its investment in africa
positives:
- through setting up military bases on the port of moms in Djibouti, gain access to the Red Sea and the middle east, contract to lease the site to reply 10,000 troops
- alliances formed, gain voting power in IGOs
- benefits through leakages, TNCs
negatives:
- conflict has arisen with the USA, until 2014 the US invested more into africa than china, they have a base, threat of usa coming back
- conflict with local communities and IGOs, exploitation of the africans has meant that some IGOs are not willing for china to be a part of their group
- interdependent on other countries to supply them with resources, threat of the USA blocking china’s sea routes in SCS, they could prevent the transport of their African exports
what is the significance of the Ukraine?
- buffer zone between russia and europe, physical border between west and east, it is gaining western power
- there are still loyal people in the Ukraine wanting to be a part of russia, used to be part of the USSR, east is Russian speaking
- through holding the souther coast of the Ukraine you can access back sea and therefore connect to asian markets, opportunity
- oil pipe through ukraine
- they have a very strong geo-political power
they would be the largest country in europe but they heavily rely on russia for trade, transports oil to russia
explain the rise of economic importance in china and india and their relations
- india and china represent 36% of the world’s pop,18% of global GDP, 32% of global carbon emissions
- both china and india are a part of g20
- they are ideological rivals, india is the world’s largest democracy, whereas china is a communist dictatorship
- they share a border but parts are disputed (aksai chin)
- china created strong economic alliance with Pakistan focused o n$54 billion Chinese investment in CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) but Pakistan and india have tense, antagonistic relations
- china has the upper-hand in terms of economics, as india has a large trade deficit (imports more than exports) with china
what tensions have arisen between india and china
- they are rivals in outer space, they both have advanced space programmes, both have an aircraft carrier and are building more, demonstrating they have regional (if not global) naval ambitions
- china is concerned about India’s military interest in the south china sea
explain the political and economic tensions between asian nations
- tensions are historic although they have improved in the 21st century with large amounts of trade now occurring
- heavy investment by the usa into japan to aid its post-war recovery like the european Marshall plan, increased tensions as Japan adopted a western capitalist economic recovery, not liked by chain
- the power of china to take over tibet, conflicts have arisen, china is said to be suppressing Tibetan religion, culture and freedom of expression, china have encouraged ethnic Chinese migrants to move to tibet, put in their ideologies, they have put in a high-speed rail link to help
- conflicts with Taiwan, put in sanctions , no peace treaty has ever been signed
- the mekong river, damming, conflicts with Laos and Thailand
- north-south water transfer project, taking water from Tibetan plateau
why is the Middle East an area of tension?
- the world economy runs on crude oil, the Middle East contains 60% of proven oil reserves so no superpower or emerging power can ignore it
- it is a melting point of different religions, ideologies conflict, sunni (Saudi Arabia, syria, turkey) vs Shia (Iran, Iraq)
- high level of contested land
- since 2011 the rise of the extremist group islamic state in Iraq and syria has created wars, terrorism and a refugee crisis
- their different attitudes to religion, trade, special relations and women differ, this means that relationships between them are not always easy
explain syria
- 2/3 of pop now refugees
- Damascus was the hub of trade, most religiously significant buildings
- nodal point for trade
- Muslim population: 70% sunni, 3% shia, Alevis 13% (Assad’s part of this, west coast)
- half of GDP comes from oil and agriculture
- rising inequalities, Alevis getting everything and benefitting the most, creating conflict
- civilians vs miltiary
explain the war in syria
- it is a proxy war, Russian-backed military vs US-backed military
players are: - the Syrian gov (Russians backing, sending in weapons)
- the opposition (civilians, USA backing, providing weapons), ISIS, Rojava (Kurds in the north)
- rojava want to keep their territory from ISIS, they are an autonomous region with equal gender rights, progressive, they do not pose threats to ISIS, they just want security, Turkey invaded Rojava as they dont like the large Kurdish pop which has formed in their country , rojava bombing them as they want more land , US in 2019 sent in troops to Rojava to help them but then pulled out as they thought their approach was too short-term, straight after turkey invaded rojava, missile strikes, they didn’t like the power that they gained
- the UN nations veto powers are completely divided, russia and china keep on preventing action, NATO want to intervene, chemical bombs being dropped and food cut off by assad
- syria’s geo-strategic location where russia uses it as a trade route to get to europe, they dont want syria to fall to the west
- iraq and Iran have same. ideologies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar provide help for rebel forces
where did the UN go wrong and why hasn’t the syrian crisis been sorted out? what should we do to stop the conflict?
- it is all come due to a weakness in the UN security council, they should’ve stepped in, prevented oppression vs freedom conflicts, prevention of this proxy war
While 13 or 14 council members are willing to act, the Russian Federation uses its veto power to prevent action, it is all down to them, they are mobbing hospitals
South Africa’s representative has urged external powers to stop supporting armed groups and to stop using the conflict as a proxy for the advancement of their own interests
The governments of Russia, Iran and China have already secured huge contracts in the hydrocarbons, minerals, telecommunications, construction and electricity sectors among others, investment from BRIC countries also visible
Estimated $200-300 billion for the reconstruction of Syria, this would take much longer if western economies were not to get involved
how might the syrian conflict be stopped?
A surrender cease-fire, the number of these cease-fires have increased markedly since Feb 2014 when rebels began to see serious military defeats, to prevent a humanitarian crisis that would lead to starvation on rebels and civilians
The security council said it would only reengage with a peacekeeping mission if combatants would cease the use of heavy machinery
Social media may have an influence, naming and shaming where publication reproachable acts through social media is supposed to persuade the guilty parties to change their behaviour
Governments are now arguing for the UN’s institutional reform to get rid of the veto altogether
what are the economic and environmental tensions in the middle east
economic
- the wider middle east region has become an essential supplier oil from Libya, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the rise of ISIS in Iraq since the invasion of allied forces has focused western interests on defending the country’s oil reserves
- turkey sells its water resources
environmental
- past conflicts often resulted in damage to oil installations particularly in Kuwait after the first gulf war in 1991 (when the iraq leader tried to take over Kuwait)
- opposers target their oil resources, destroy them
explain the Geneva convention and how assad went against this
agreement in war to not prevent aid, protection of civilians, they shouldn’t be used as human shields
- assad dropping bombs on his own people, chemical bombs being dropped, trying to break off rebel forces but instead he is killing his own people, cutting off all food coming in
- Trump stepped in saying that NATO should not bomb syria as it would be against human rights
- Russian air strikes on sure against the Geneva convention
what are the costs of maintaining superpower status? (including Norway’s approach to be exempt from these costs)
- costs of participating in IGOs, the cost of movements of people, forming diplomatic relations, you are expected to support people, development aid
- environmental impacts due to migration, growing pop
- expected to intervene in international conflict and and affairs, proxy war asks for intervention otherwise people will die, costly, timely
- certain levels of inequality, power of TNCs, exploitation, the capitalist superpowers are not structured to give equal grounding to everyone
- interdependence of economies through global trade makes your economy fragile to external shocks
- standing up for freedom may mean you are not necessarily liked, focus for terrorism (ISIS)
- debt, you need to be protected in terms of recession
Norway have adopted a different approach, they have the largest SWF, they have the ability to become a superpower but they dont want to encounter all the costs of being one
explain the problems that arise through superpower status and how it has meant they have become economically weak
debt
- the recession created public debt, led to tax rises in some cases which slows the economy
- higher risk from economic crises, when a recession hits we become heavily reliant on FDI, making emerging countries increasingly politically and economically powerful
unemployment
- the rise in emerging nations in terms of manufacturing and innovation and competition has put western jobs out of use. e.g. general motors
- many rely on social security payments from the government
- uk’s traditional mining and manufacturing industries, red car and rust belt regions of the USA
economic restructuring
- EU and USA forced to move into more highly skilled escorts (tertiary, quaternary) but developments in education havent been fast enough, reskilling is needed
- global shift to asia has caused deindustrialisation in the US and EU, high costs linked to regeneration former industrial areas
- disadvantaged communities not been able to participate in tertiary and quaternary job market
explain the challenges for the USA due to their superpower status
economic
- national debt in 2016 at $19 trillion but rather stable due to TNCs
demographic
- growing pop leads to social costs rising, 415 mill by 2060
political
- race relations difficult in some parts, political parties often reach deadlock but US values are generally consistent across the country
resources
- more secure due to oil and gas fracking, water insecurity in south west
social
- health spending 17% of GDP, 74% obese
explain the challenges for the EU due to their superpower status
economic
- huge debt, €9.7 trillion in eurozone and £1.6 trillion in UK, 90% of their annual GDP, debt hindering economic growth
demographic
- ageing fast, EU workforce to drop by 14% by 2030 putting a burden on those working
political
- rise in the far right due to countries wanting deeper union (france and Germany), problems with immigration leading to conflict
resources
- energy insecurity, reliant on other countries for oil and gas, some comes from Russia’s pipelines
social
- youth unemployment high in EU at 22%, over 45% in Greece and Spain, risk of a lost generation and political disaffection (negative views towards political system)
what was the impact of the financial crisis?
- a stock-market crash in 2007-8 and a series of bank failures that in turn led to a global recession, business closures and rising unemployment
- the USA chose to increase national debt in order to maintain consumer spending and an economic multiplier effect
explain military expenditure around the world
regional military expenditure
1) North America (40% of GDP)
2) Europe (24% of GDP)
3) asia and oceania (22% of. GDP)
- Eastern Europe, North Africa, Middle East and central and South Asia spent more of their GDP on their military than on health
- whilst North America spends over 2x more on health than the military and the EU more than 5x the amount on military, in the grand scheme of things they can afford to do this, the 3.6% of NA’s GDP spending accounts to huge value
- in 2017 the USA wanted to spend a huge 54% of their $1.15 trillion budget on their military, compared to 5% on medicare/health and 6% on education, however this money could be spent in other ways, 13% of Americans live in poverty, roads need to be repaired
defence budgets (% of GDP)
1) Saudi Arabia (11.2%)
2) Russia (4.1%)
3) US (3.1%)
- perhaps they are the most threatened, resources to protect?
- USA and China account for 49% of military spending, costs of being a superpower
explain what is happening to military expenditure in emerging nations and in european countries
- the greatest increase in military expenditure between 2000-2012 was from emerging nations, rose by 325%
- they cannot fully develop without having a military, they are obtaining greater geo-political powers and this needs to be supported by a strong military to obtain hard power
- European countries seeing significant drop in global defence spending as theyre in alliances and the USA spends enough to support them all, they have geo-political stability
what are the 4 main areas of military spending explained
navy
- aircraft carries considered essential for protecting power, cost of defence often more than cost of attack
- UK debating whether to get large fleet of cheaper ships which would provide strength in numbers or a small fleet of high tech ships
- the US see their navy as essential for maintaining power and for deploying ships extensively
nuclear weapons
- many doubt its economic feasibility, most likely not to be used but is a strong form of hard power
- in 2016 the UK voted to update our nuclear weapons (trident), said to cost up to £250 billion over 50 years for purchase, maintenance and decommissioning
- is spending huge amounts on nuclear weapons feasible in weaker economic times
air power
- the ability to respond rapidly, this is vital
- bombing in times of conflict is the most popular option at the moment (syria)
- future of drones, precise and agile, dont need to be manned but tech needs to be improved
- NATO spending more on military air power
- tends to be second largest spending after nuclear
intelligence
- globalised computer networks have led to cyber spies and hacking
- international cooperation is vital for intelligence agencies
- hacking and the leakage of information is a huge issue
- justification for intelligence spending particularly to protect from terrors, and criminal threats, very dynamic and very expensive industry
- USA spends $80 billion on intelligence services annually
explain how the space rave may be considered as an economic cost of maintaining global military power
- in the past space programmes such as russia sending firm person to space and the US putting first man on the moon was a great sign of power
- china and india both have their own space programmes which are costing over $1 billion
- spending by NASA on space exploration totalled $18.5 billion in 2016
- budgets for space programmes have declines, perhaps they now turn to nuclear
- asian countries such as india and china have adopted major space programmes and are able to launch space flights much cheaper, Indian orbital missions to mars in 2013 , satellite and ground tracking infrastructure on earth costing $72 million
why is it so hard to predict what might happen in the future in terms of global power?
- TECHNOLOGY, artificial intelligence, impact of technology, hacking, perhaps you won’t be able to maintain superpower status without technological advancements, terrorism, targeted attacks with drones (perhaps china’s reason for investment in tech)
- what are the future industries going to be, what type of industries will be essential (dependance of primary resources)
- world climate, will natural disasters wipe out Western Europe, future of tectonics and climate
- global diseases, was COVID deliberately used by china to wipe out the west, civil unrest through poor management, emphasises the global connections, deglobalise?
- rise in the far right, problems with governance, you need a stable government
what are the 4 possibilities for the future balance of global power?
1) US hegemony
2) Regional mosaic (multipolar)
3) new Cold War (bipolar)
4) asian century (unipolar)
explain the possibility for US hegemony in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- their TNCs and resilience will help them maintain hegemony, US dominance and economic and military alliances continue in a unipolar world
- china faces an economic crisis similar to japans in the 1990s and ceases to grow rapidly
yes:
- TNCs, soft power
- their role in IGOs, bargaining power
no:
- the rise of china
- they are becoming politically unstable, impact of trump
explain the possibility for a regional mosaic (multipolar) in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- emerging powers continue to grow while the EU and USA decline in relative terms, creating a multi polar world of broadly equal powers with regional but not global influence
- e.g. Brazil in south America dominates regionally
yes:
- the economic centre of gravity shifting
- impact of covid, interdependence of economies, looking more at regional trade as is safer and easier to control
no:
- global decision making would be much more difficult, how to make trade deals work, climate agreement, times of war
explain the possibility for a new Cold War (bipolar) in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- perhaps this is already happening in the case of the proxy war in syria
- either china or USA by 2030
- china rises to become equal power with the USA, many nations align with one or the other ideology, creating a bi-polar world similar to the Cold War period
yes:
- capitalist vs communist
- already happening, alliances happening, alliance with USA vs alliance with Asia (harsher regimes)
no:
- china too confrontational to let that happen
- risk of china, population size, rebellion and uprising of conflict
explain the possibility for an asian century (unipolar) in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- USA loses hegemony
- shift moves to south east asia, USA no longer considered as a superpower
- asian tigers control economics and politics
- economic, social and political problems reduce the power of the EU and USA
yes:
- china’s growth rate is faster than anyone else’s, SWF about to take over Norways SWF
no:
- tensions in asia, china doesnt like india, they have too many disputes in the region
- western soft power (influence too strong)
