superpowers Flashcards
what is a superpower
a super power is a country which has the ability to exert power and influence anywhere in the world . they have access to a range or superpower characteristics. they are not stagnant examples inc USA , USSR And the british empire in the 1940s
what is an emerging power
an emerging power is a country which plays a large role in one or more super power characteristics . their influence is increasing over time and they are experiencing a change in economic structure. Examples inc Brazil India China
what is a regional power
a country which has the ability to exert power and influence over other countries within their continent or region . they influence other countries on a continental scale , e.g saudi arabia in the middle east
what are the 6 super power characteristics (CAPMED)
Cultural
Access to resources
Political
Military
Economic
Demographic
explain the economic characteristics of a superpower
- High GDP e.g USA produce over 40% of global GDP , helps influence
- high levels of trade including strong influence over global trade
- Home to many TNCS to produce FDI , wealth provided helps maintain and expand military , exploit natural resources and develop human resources through education.
explain the political power characteristics of super powers
Permanent seat on the UN security council , allows them to also make powerful allies to further reinforce their power
E.g USA is a part of G20 which are a significant decision making form
explain the military power characteristics of superpowers
threats of military power can be used as a bargaining tool and can be used to achieve geopolitical goals , they can be used to maintain power aswell as develop power . e.g threats of nuclear weapons can be used as a deterrent.
global influence can be achieved through a blue water navy (large ships through an open ocean) and missile and satellite technology.
Permanent membership in the UN Security council can be seen as ultimate status of military power.
super power E.G USA military spending accounts for 37% of spending in the world
emerging power e.g China have expanded their military however their interests lie mainly in the Asia region , south china sea , little influence beyond their
explain the cultural power characteristics of superpowers
how appealing w nations way of life values and ideology are to others:
achieved by:
-dominance or media eg films and music
- TNCS or migrants introducing cultural products e.g westernisation , the USA havw the highest percentage of the worlds largest TNC’S
- imposition of viewpoint in international agreements
explain the demographic power characteristics of superpowers
- large population leads to greater number of workers at TNCS, provides a sufficient labour force to generate economic growth e.g China using large pop as a source for cheap labour , attracts FDI , could be seen as more important for emerging powers.
Demographic power assists economic power through providing a large market so countries are benefited through economies of scale in , therefore increasing profit
Not necessarily important for a strong economy eg singapore has a strong economy without a big population
explain the power of access to resources as a characteristic of a superpower
control and access to physical resources such as energy energy minerals provided input for economic growth as their resources can be exported at a high price which is essential for economic growth
Multiple resources help ensure power as they make a country less depending on others (energy security)
however having access to resources doesnt guarantee development as in many countries these resources are managed by major TNCS
E.g shell and BP in Nigeria abs OPEC And their oil
what is a hyperpower
an unchallenged superpower that is dominant in all aspects of powers , examples include the usa from 1990 to 2010.
what is hard power
hard power is a coercive approach to international relations which combines the use of military and economic power to achieve certain outcomes
what are two examples of hard power used by the USA
Military power- the USA responded to the 2001 territory attack on them with a military invasion of afghanistan against the taliban who were supporters of the territorists.
Economic power- For example the use of economic sanctions against the countries it considers a threat to its interests such as Iran.
what is soft power
soft power is a persuasive approach for counties to act in a particular way on rhe basis that it’s the persuader is respected and appealing. it has three main components , diplomacy , culture and history
what are three examples of soft power in the UK
history - britain’s history of high quality education faie legal system and reputation for financial trustworthiness
culture- english is widely used as a second language around the world and the BBC is widely trusted as an unbiased news source. The use of the BBC allowed them to broadcast english values across the world helping them exert soft power
Diplomacy- the UK has one of the largest networks of embassies and high commissions . Ul objectives are often achieved through diplomatic influence
benefits and disadvantages of hard power
Benefits:
- fast acting - results can be achieved quicker
- cannot rise up without hard power , to be a superpower military and economic power is pretty much essential
disadvantages:
- although results are fast they aren’t always very long lasting
- use of hard power can often make people suffer.
- counties may view enforcement of military action as illegal or unnecessary which could cause the superpower to lose allies e.g russia’s invasion into crimea
what are benefits and disadvantages of soft power
benefits:
- through diffusion of culture worldwide it gives them a global presence without the need to directly invest in the country. Many countries rely on soft power for overseas influence
- the indirect effects of attraction and diffused influence can later be used to make a significant difference in obtaining favourable outcomes in bargaining situations.
disadvantage;
- takes a longer time to apply power than hard power
- soft power relies on a a country having respected culture and ideologies , it may be hard to impose power on other countries especially if they are very different culturally and ideologically
what is smart power
a combination of both hard and soft power
An approach that underscores the necessity of a strong military but also invests heavily in alliances , partnerships and institution of all levels to expand their influences
explain Mackinder’s geo strategic “heartland” location theory
the theory blames that the “heartland” - a region which stretched from eastern europe into russia wws the key strategic location of the world as it held a huge proportion of the worlds physical+human resources. He argued whoever controlled the heartland would control the world as they would control 50% of the worlds resources.
the heartland is hard to invade due to physical barriers
Russia should be the worlds global power due to its favourable location but it suffered from two major disadvantages , it has many borders and due to frozen ground has few year round ports .
some argue the middle east is the new heartland
explain how Mackinder believed the heartland could shift geographically
as a result of sea power he believed that britain’s industrialisation had shifted the centre of power westwards he believed that the UK could dominate everywhere
explain the changing centre of gravity of power
shows how the centre is pulled towards the country or region with the largest GDP
Shows the importance of the brittish industrial revolution in the 19th century to then Lead towards shift towards the USA in the 20th century due to industrial rise
the changing positions between 2000 and the predicted change by 2025 reflect the growing importance of china
power changes over time different power structures bring diffeeng level of stability
advantages and disadvantages of Mackinders theory
advantage:
reinforced the idea that control over physical resources and land is important
after WW1 his theory influenced the policy of containment that emerging powers such as germany should not be allowed to expand . NATO allies tried to contain the soviets from epdanding into western europ.
- can be easily applied to modern geopolitics
Disadvantages:
physical resources are traded internationally now due to global shift there is much less need to havw them domestically so naturally the resources are spread out of its countries of origin
Did
what is geopolitical stability
how well different governments get on with eachother.
e.g between USA and USSR the relationship between trump and putin shows one of instability
explain the unipolar power (colonial power) through british empire
- occurred between 1800-1919
- They gained the power through direct colonial control. Their navy played a large role in their growth as they transported soldiers and equipment to potential areas of conquest and their large and advanced armed forces conquered the territory and controlled it.
As they built their empires through colonial control they were able to build power more globally. This started with ship building from their deciduous trees allowing them to explore new lands from the 1400s. They travelled by boat and started to colonise unoccupied land. This led to the growth of the British Empire.
- To maintain their power, Britain highly populated the countries with British military and British administrators. - They introduced British legal systems, education systems and inventions such as the railways, language, sport and culture (as seen in India with cricket)
why did britain want power during 1800-1919
They wanted the power in order to gain access to the resources that these areas offer and once they took hold in one country they would then be able to gain access to the neighbouring countries. Commodities such as cotton, slaves and spices were used to set up trading companies which generated income and allowed further exploration. As the UK brought back the raw materials to their major ports, it fuelled the industrial revolution
how stable was the colonial rule of the british empire
This was not stable. Due to the fact that there were several people with a highly influential role, it meant that there was a large conflict of opinions. With no one in control it meant that it created a power vacuum allowing the rise of Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan with no country prepared to stop them. A multipolar power world is one of great conflict as there is no measures in containing power.
how did the brittish empires power decline?
- running an empire was very expensive and after the expense of ww1 britain couldnt afford it.
- The UK became aware that colonising countries was not morally correct. Anti-colonial movements and a desire for countries to become independent of their ‘mother’ country. Countries in Europe focused on rebuilding their own countries after the war.
global trade changed new industrial powers e.g germany and USA created new markets and new competition trading with african colonies and india were no longer the route to econoic superpower
what happened as the uni-polar world after the brittish empire faded
as the uni polar world faded and the cold war began teh world saw two superpowers facing eachother The USA and USSR (bipolar world)
explain the bipolar power that was present during the Cold War era with the USA and USSR
From 1945-90 a bi-polar world dominated, made up of USA and USSR, this led to the formation of the Cold War era.
It involves a tense stand-off between opposing powers who both had rapidly industrialised, ha access to raw materials, were self-sufficient and very strong militaries.
The Americans and the British feared the permanent soviet domination of eastern Europe and the threat of soviet-influenced communist parties coming to power in the democracies of western Europe.
how did the USA and USSR develop power through the cold war
The USA and USSR sought allies among other countries as part of the USA-led ‘West’ or USSR-led ‘East’. They didn’t directly fight but they were involved in ’proxy wars’ which involves when you pick a side in a war. They gained power through investing millions into their nuclear weapons and space technology in order to gain power against their component.
by 1949 both USA and USSR had access to nuclear weapons and had the threat of launching one if the other did.
the superpowers developed indirect over other countries
was the bipolar power between the USA and USSR stable
the instability of the Cold Era bipolar world was mainly due to their completely contrasting ideologies with the one supporting capitalist views and the other communist. Geopolitical instability and proxy war in many different parts of the world, such as the Korean peninsula and Vietnam. It was described as having high risk.
what are the four mechanisms of indirect control e.g in cold war (CEMP)
cultural- The USA’s radio free europe transmitted news information into eastern europe and the USSR during the cold war
economic- when a superpower uses its economic power to influence how a country is goverened through ideology e.g traid or aid deals having strings attached , a country may recieve a loan but has to spend it on the superpowers products
Military- a superpower can station its troops in the country or only selling weapons that use parts and ammunition sold by the superpower. e.g the USA has currently 800 military bases worldwide
political- when a superpower influences how a country is governed through ideology . for example the communist countries of eastern europe followed the policies decided for them by the USSR,
how did the bi-polar power between USAand USSR decline
Their power declined not only due to rebelling countries saying they didn’t like the idea of communism but also due to the space race becoming too expensive. This led to the rise in nuclear power and this is a power that many countries continue in aiming to conquer. Their power was bound to decline due to the completely opposing ideologies they held, their fight could not be sustained.
who has the hegemony
The USA holds the role of holding a hegemony. The United States emerged from the war as the dominant economic, political and technological power. The use of the USA’s ‘soft power’ during this uni-polar era has been crucial in maintaining their hegemony.
how did the USA gain and maintain hegemony power
This has been done through the use of hard and soft power. It is clear that their development sin military and large economic power play a large role in obtaining this large amount of power however their use of soft power may be argued as the main component in obtaining this hegemony.
Through Americanisation and Mcdonaldisation through the presence of US TNCs setting up across the world they have been able to successfully spread their culture globally, with many arguing this to being the greatest form of power.
why did the USA want hegemony power
They wanted power in order to be able to control the world economy and international trade. Through operating a hegemony they will have the greatest amount of power and hold financial economies against other countries. It became the postwar home of the United Nations, the IMF and the WB. This allowed them to have a favourable position in terms of trade agreements and so in terms of their economy they would be favoured. They dominated the markets.
how is the stability of the hegemonic power of the USA effected?
The biggest threat to the US’ hegemony is the rise of China. The dominance of the USA will decline with China acting as its biggest rivalry. This is because China has access to a large amount of human resources, they have seen high rates of GDP growth at 6.1% that do not seem to slow down and they have been increasingly engaging with other parts of the world, notably by investing in Africa in terms of mineral resources. Moreover, the strength of China’s military highlights their hard power that acts as a threat to USA’s sustaining power.
what is Neo-colonialism?
it refers to the soft power that is being used to control former colonies to ensure wealthy countries still get what they want
- some see it as a form of mutual benefit
- it tends to involve former colonies as they are more fragile and easier to manipulate
which are the emerging powers?
emerging countries are the BRICS countries and the MINT countries
this includes Brazil Russia India China South
Mexico
Indonesia
Nigeria
Turkey
who are the G20
the G20 is the 20 most successful economies in the world , they meet to discuss how to keep the global economy working at its best. Members include the BRICS , MINT together with leading economies such as EU , USA and Japan.
explain the rise of china as a potential rival to the USA’s hegemony?
- china’s rapid economic growth and the USA’s dependance on china for manufactured goods has challenged the USA’s power
- china’s rapid economic growth and the USA’s dependance on china for manufactured goods has challenged the USA’s power
how are the emerging powers influential (PEE)
POLITICALLY- their economic importance enables them to form alliances ad act as an influence group (e,g New development bank) and join global decision making organisations such as the G20.
ECONOMICALLY- their economic growth has powered the worlds economy . collectively the G20 countries make up 85% of global trade. Large markets also mean big markets for global commodities.
ENVIRONMENTALLY- Climate change is a global problem and the emerging powers have a crucial role to play in tackling it both individually and as part of global governance initiatives e.g UN climate change conferences.
explain 4 ways of in how indirect control particularly Neo-colonial control can be used to influence other countries and exert your power (CALM)
C- cultural control- TNC investments
- cultural diffusion and westernisation have taken place, sport, music and the internet. many developing nations are reliant on TNCS to provide investment and jobs, otherwise they will go into extreme poverty, e.g. Coca Cola in Rajasthan
A- AID- economic and political control
- the IMF and WB were set up to provide aid in the form of ‘structural adjustment programs’ to ensure countries reformed their policies to be pro-western
- much aid is also given in form of tied aid as seen in UK’s aid to India where the money had to be spent on british infrastructure and businesses
L- lending
- developing countries often borrow money from developed ones and end up in a debtor-creditor relationship
- the UK continues to provide funding to commonwealth nations giving it ‘moral authority’
M- Military support-military control
- developing nations often rely on superpowers for military backing during times of civil war and uprising or they need to buy them weapons from e.g. USA giving Syrian rebels discounted price on guns, they want them to adopt capitalist views
what is bi-polar power?
two opposing superpowers, with different ideologies but broadly equal in status
what do the G20 do
they meet to discuss global economies. this is a form of soft power.
- established in 1999, developed during the asian crisis where they discussed the potential downfall of Asia
- they are considered an informal forum, they act as a catalyst for new initiatives, carry large political weight
- emerging nations are funding their growth, trade and political relationships with emerging nations will help drive economic growth through the use of their cheap human and physical resources
evaluate the G20
- based on resolution not legislation, they commit to it but dont always implement it, people argue that the G20 favours the rich and increases financial inequalities
- they have evolved, before conversations were solely based on economics however now they also talk about climate change and education
what factors allow for fast growth in a nation?
- room for growth, opportunities for diversification
- good physical components, not landlocked access to natural resources e.t.c
- open governments towards globalisation, murdle’s model of cumulative causation
- large working population
what is the prediction for the future growth of emerging powers?
they will become increasingly important to global economic and political systems in the 21st century and the dominance of the USA will decline with China most likely to rival their hegemony
- other BRIC (Brazil, russia, India and china) and G20 countries could become increasingly powerful in the future
- Europes and the USA’s share of world GDP has been decline since about 1945 and 1990 respectively
- it is predicted emerging nations will demand more say in global organisations such as The UN
- have more decision making power in IGOs
- play a greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster response as their military capacity grows
explain how emerging countries are becoming increasingly important in global environment governance
the annual UN Climate Change conference
- the BRIC countries account for 42% of global carbon dioxide emissions, global environment governance agreements must involve these countries
- in the conference in 2015 the BRIC countries were involved in the agreement in a way they had not been when the 1997 Kyoto protocol was signed, which only involved developed countries
what are the strengths of the emerging nation of China
strengths-
they are the main trading partner for more than 100 countries compared to half of that for the USA, accounts for 60% of GDP in BRIC countries (EC)
- most populous country in the world, 4x pop of the USA, large workforce. they are an educated population with a skilled workforce
geostrategic location for trade and defence, belt and road initiative aims o gain a geo-economic presence of central Asia’s heartland (EN)
economic and political growth in china lifted 800 million people out of poverty creating a huge market.
what are the weaknesses of the emerging nation of China
weaknesses:
- deeply polarised between ideals (republic vs democratic), authoritarian gov leads to lack of power
- as much as they have expanded their military, its
interests lie mainly in the Asia region (SCS), military beyond Asia is minor, little global military reach
there is still vast inequality between urban and rural china , and developed east and less developed west
there are huge amounts of air and water pollution in china due to the maufacturing, long term impacts on health may occurr as a result of this
what are the strengths of the emerging power of India
strengths-
india has a huge labour market of 500 million
they have effective training of highly skilled workers e.g in IT and Finance
demographically they have a youthful population , 54% of indians are under 25
global leader in IT technology
- Bollywood, food spread culturally (C)
what are the weaknesses of the emerging power of India
weaknesses-
- more than 70% of the rural population still live in poverty
- their is weak travel infrastructure and poor energy
rapid pop growth is causing major environmental damage
lack of water resources - can impact long term health
they need massive modernisation in their military equipment, sophisticated hardware needed (M)
- trade unions are getting bigger due to low pay in industries, political instability (D/P)
what are the strengths of the emerging power of Russia
strengths-
large oil and gas reserves (EN,EC)
- high literacy rate at 99.73% and therefore high levels of educated workforce (D)
very powerful nuclear armed military
- they have a very strong leader and government leading to power (P)
effective soft power through manipulation of social media
what are the weaknesses of the emerging power of Russia
- limited access to navy due to lack of ports, naval and aircraft stock ageing, one aircraft carrier dates back to the soviet era (M)
- global warming more severe, 2.5x faster than the rest of the world (EN)
- russia is 9th largest economy but it is very dependant on oil and gas exports (produces half of its GDP), very vulnerable to price fluctuations (EC) e.g russias GDP shrank from 2.2 million dollars to 1.8 million between 2013 and 2018
their is political hostility against russia including economic sanctions from EU and USA.
there is very high inequality
what are the strengths of the emerging power of Brazil
- allies with the USA, bilateral relationship allowing for economic growth (P)
globalisation reputation as a football nation, famous for the Rio carnival, hosted 2-14 world cup and 2016 olympics (C)
environmentally important- amazon rainforest
huge natural resources
modern economic structure
what are the weaknesses of the emerging power of Brazil
economy has boom and bust cycles - sign of instability e.g
economic crisis in 2014-2017 saw brazils GDP fall by nearly 4%
there is serious political corruption involving state energy company
environmental issues as some politicians want to cut down amazon rainforest to boost development
limited military strength
- relies on primary products for export rather than manufacturing, no added value but does product half of south America’s GDP (EC)
- deforestation and climate change, rainforest, large threat (EN)
- large amount of ethnic groups leading to cultural clash and conflict, politically less stable protests every year since 2013 (C+P)
explain how the characteristics needed for power have changed over time
As our society has developed and technology has advanced there has been a shift in the need for nuclear machinery, advanced technology, a large and educated workforce.
there is also an increased need for soft power now due to the increased competition with foreign markets. Exerting your influence through your TNCs, following the actions of countries such as USA
what are some of the trends/issues with emerging powers
Countries with ageing, or even declining populations (Russia, Japan, some EU countries and even China) face major problems in the future in paying for increasingly costly healthcare at the same time as their workforce shrinks
Shortages of physical resources could derail the ambitions of some countries (India) whereas growing pollution could stall the growth of others (China)
Countries with modern infrastructure, balanced economic sectors and good energy supplies (China, Brazil, Mexico) will do better than ones yet to develop these (India, Indonesia, Nigeria).
what are the positives of a uni polar world
unipolar world
- complete colonial power, the british empire was able to colonise countries all over the world
- most secure and stable world system, if managed correctly and not done in an exploitive way it will ensure complete security, everywhere adopts the same sustainable and opportunistic ideals
what are the positives of a bipolar world
- it is seen as ‘the most stable form of power distribution’ and if the two powers work together and support each other’s views then they will be able to create a world with complete security and control
- leads to rapid innovation and development, competing with another country, the space race/cold war between USSR and USA
what are the positives of a unipolar world
- from moving out of the bipolar world it allowed for many weaker states to exercise their strategic autonomy and multi-align themselves with multiple powerful states
- allows for the spread of culture allowing for a growth in soft power as people begin to adopt their way of life, this is argued to be the most essential form of power for long-term prosperity
how have the BRIC countries grown over time?
- they obtained more stable governments meaning that they have more plans in place for development, education and healthcare, seen through china
- they have put in more efforts for education and so they are obtaining a more qualified population, more attractive for investment
- they have become more involved in global trade, some are key trading partners for many countries through developments in manufacturing high-value goods, no longer having to depend on core regions to add value to their resources
summarise rostow’s model of development (modernisation theory) indicating what is needed to move onto the next stage
its a theory that is based on the hostorical development of the UK and USA. , it assumes that if enough investment is made in a developing country , industrialisation “take off” will inevitably occur. giving good returns on the original investment and helping them development. supports the idea of TNC’s being beneficial for countries as it provides developing countries with a crucial stimulus for “take off”
it follows 6 steps 1- traditional society 2-conditions for take off 3-take off 4-the drive to maturity 5-high mass consumption 6-post consumer society
what are the positives and negatives of rostow’s model of development (modernisation theory)
Positives:
- shows how development, politics and the economy are all linked
- if they had the investment they are likely to grow
Negatives:
- doesn’t take into account that European development comes at the cost of other nations (colonialism)
- not a level playing field, doesn’t start at the same level
it assumes that all countries follow the same path to development even though the conditions for the UK and USA’s development were different - doesn’t take into account geopolitical relations
summarise the world systems theory of development
it is an analysis of geographical patterns where the world can be split into three tiers. the core , semi periphery and the periphery.
the core regions drive the world economy, the western core now owns and consumes more than 25% of goods and services
- the peripheral regions rely on the core regions to exploit their raw materials, largely from colonialism where western countries assumed over countries rich in raw materials, unequal trade where core regions added value and therefore made profit from their goods
takes a macro-economic approach where all three areas are interconnected and that the global capitalism system still relies on some countries to remain poor to exploit
implies that the semi-periphery are the most important as they drive and fuel growth, they are seeing the most growth, which is fuelled by the core
it is a dynamic model which stresses that development is fluid and should be focused / viewed on a global context rather than individual countries
power is dynamic and can shift e.g china may become a superpower in the future.
what are the strengths and weaknesses of the world systems theory of development
strength-
- holistic perspective allows for more abstract conclusions
- inclusion of concept of semi-periphery
weakness-
there are more causes for underdevelopment than just capitalism such as corruption and conflict
- he puts too much of an emphasis on economics and the dominance of capitalism
- core, semi periphery and periphery categories are too vague
it gives more of an analysis of the worlds patterns of power rather than exmplaining why some countries are more likely to have taht power
what would you say is the most effective development model at explaining changing patterns of power?
Dependency model
- the peripheral countries are indeed currently dependant on the core countries for trade and are most often exploited by the core regions which further hinders their economic prosperity
summarise frank’s dependency model
- argues that a relationship between developed and developing nations is one of dependency, both countries give and take
Core give: manufactured goods, aid, polluting industry and political and economic ideas
Peripheral give: political support, debt repayments, raw materials and brain drain
- the core are also dependant on the peripheral countries for their resources, they need the resources to add value
- the core countries supply. Polluting industry, e.g. coca cola
- to escape this cycle the peripheral countries need to retain their primary products and invest in processing and manufacturing, thus adding value and employment
what are the strengths and weaknesses of franks dependency theory
Positives:
- simple and timeless, three categories of countries is true, UK add value to imported materials
- mentions politics, shows importance of alliances, rostow doesn’t show this
- acknowledges importance of aid, can demand up to 75% back
Negatives:
- doesn’t acknowledge migration
- only really acknowledges primary and secondary, e.g. India’s tertiary?
- natural disasters, lack of resources and conflict are things that limit development yet they are not mentioned here
how do the developed countries defavorise the developing nations
- they exploit their workforce and resources, as they become wealthier though they will no longer be able to do this
- neo-colonial mechanisms and a net transfer of wealth from developing to developed world are responsible
- tariffs are added to any processed imports, this imbalance in the terms of trade remains unfavourable to developing countries
how do global superpowers use the world bank to promote free trade and capitalism
- its main role is to help capitalism function particularly through making loans to developing countries for development projects
- over 40% of the total votes lie in the hands of eight of the largest contributors thus enforcing a capitalist mentality in most of their decisions
- in 2016, the USA controlled 16.5% of World Bank votes, all decisions will be made to favour these capitalist countries, reduce trade restrictions in these countries
- the world bank gained a bad reptuation in 1970s and 80s for financing projects that were either environmentally damaging or meant that countries were unable to pay back the loan
- its main role is to help capitalism function- particularly by making loans to developing countries for development projects
How do global superpowers use the IMF to promote free trade and capitalism?
- the IMF is a fund that is used for loans to help those countries facing heavy debts thus helping to stabilise their economies
- the IMF reflects US and EU interests, they can obtain the political decisions that are the most favourable to their interests
- the EU nations collectively have 25% of the IMF’s votes and so their interest are closely tied with the IGO, rather than the interests of the indebted countries
- the IMF promotes capitalism, those who have invested more into the fund have a greater voting power, this is the USA, the top 10 members control over 60% of the IMF’s total voting rights
how do global superpowers use the WTO to promote free trade and capitalism?
- its aim is to free up global trade and reduce trade barriers by negotiating free trade agreements however these agreements often favour the global superpowers by supporting their industries
- The WTO have failed to stop developed nations from dominating the IGO, as they have let them protect their own industries through subsidies, for example with the EU farmer being subsidised, so developing nations have lost out.
- The USA’s power also allows it to sway decision making in its direction, as they win 85% of cases brought and win many cases brought against them.
- Again, the EU and USA clearly combine their power to block policies that infringe on them and bring cases against China to try to diminish their power.
- China is a relatively new member within the WTO but their influence has grown and many other Asian nations vote in accordance with Chinese ideas, to help support trade within the East. However, they have further to go to develop their strength against the more powerful members
how do global superpowers use the WEF to support global trade and capitalism?
- it is pro free-trade and pro-TNCs, this often favours the richer nations as you can only be accepted into the WEF by invitation, they allow the richest nations that undertake the most trade and have capitalist views, they need to be politically stable
- business CEOs, academics, political elite leaders and IGO representatives attend these meetings in Davos, they often have a very much capitalist view on the world and so the decisions made will favour their political ideologies
- gives superpowers more influence as TNCs can benefit from government policies such as low taxation
- it discusses ideas such as corruption and encourages governments to set up global links
- they work to encourage public-private co-operation and this will enable countries to form trade agreements and aid the expansion of emerging economies
How do public TNCs impact the global economy in terms of technology and trade patterns through the spread of economic and cultural globalisation?
The main companies in the fortune 500 global companies are from north America, Europe and then followed by SE Asia, meaning that our world has increasingly adopted a western culture following their ideologies, the dominance of the US in terms of global trade has meant that they have been able to portray their capitalist ideals into foreign countries
- in the 2000s, global trade increased in value by over 85%, part of this is due to the global shift in manufacturing leading to a shifting economic power to emerging economies, making TNCs extremely powerful, top 200 TNCs made up 25% of the world’s economic output
- UNCTAD estimated in 2013 that TNCs now account for 80% of all global trade
- lots of intellectual property are patented in order to protect their ideas and prevent globalisation allowing for counterfeiting goods, they patent their ideas
- link between areas with the most amount of TNCs and the amount of counterfeited goods, by operating on a global scale they need to be sure that their ideas are not stolen by other countries through cultural globalisation. Form of protection
- TNC creation of new technologies helps to maintain military superiority for hard power
- through patenting goods it means that they can raise money in order to further innovate technology for example, the US has the greatest number of patented goods which allows them to earn money to invest in tech and trade
How do state-led TNCs impact the global economy in terms of technology and trade patterns through the spread of economic and cultural globalisation?
- often these start-led TNCs are used to monopolise their economy and embrace privatisation, they don’t like the idea of sharing ideas and so economic and cultural globalisation is rather restricted, global trade lower
- all profits go back to the state and so in terms of repatriation of profits internationally, this is not the case.
- state-led TNCs do not go through cultural globalisation, they solely operate by the traditional values of the country, not on a global scale
- state-led TNCs are found in countries with communist command economies or mixed economies such as China and Russia and so they do not often promote cultural globalisation and free trade
Which type of TNC, public or state-led have been more important in assisting China’s rise to superpower status?
State-led
- they operate commercially but all profits go back to the state, they tend to be less global
- china have been able to monopolise their economy through having state-led TNCs, these have made a lot of money, as much as they don’t allow for soft power it has meant that china have been able to expand their GDP
- through the money going back to the state it has meant that China have been smart in their TNC use will all profits going to infrastructure, education, healthcare and energy allowing for rich sovereign wealth funds and neo-colonial investments, this has allowed them to increase their stability
e. g. bank of china
Why is having a high global cultural influence such an important aspect of power and how does this cultural influence link to economic and technological influences?
- through the USA spreading their capitalist and American values it has meant that the have been able to gain soft power, impact of western culture
- the influence of international foods in supermarkets in the UK, soft power is arguably the greatest form of obtaining long-term power
- westernisation has led to technological and economic influences through adopting the idea that accumulating wealth and owning property indicate a successful life. The importance of having the latest technology and the idea that technology can solve problems
- the desire to have access to the world’s most famous global brands is a powerful driving force behind the process of westernisation
- all of the top ten global brands in 2016 originate from the USA, every aspect of their business model will be displaying the American values and ideals and so one may argue that the world is starting to display the American way of life, focus on technology and work hard ethic to be rewarded
- movies that are shown around the world are arguably one of the best ways of spreading your cultural influence as you are able to easily display the way of life and traditions of a country on a global scale
- refer back to benefits of soft power
how do patents reinforce the development models
- reinforces the dependency theory of frank, dependant on the source countries for medication, they have to pay whatever the price or go to sub-standard substitutes
- questions rostow’s model as hampering the development of poorer nations, not giving access to drugs meaning people are dying, removing patents would lead to the global derivation of communism
what are the three ways in which super powers and emerging nations play a role in global action. (CCC)
Conflict prevention
Climate change
Crisis response
how do super powers and emerging nations play a role in global action through conflict prevention?
the usa supporting Afghanistan through providing weapons and recruiting fighters, with the American funding they resisted soviet troops, preventing the conflict spreading out into other countries
- responding to conflict, such as the threat from al-qaeda or ISIS
- since 2001, the USA has led a global effort against islamic terroism in Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, east africa and the Middle East
how do super powers and emerging nations play a role in global action through crisis response
poor nations rely on aid from superpowers for recovery, e.g. Haiti, their appeals for assistance after their hurricane only brought in 25% of what it needed
- they are less resilient to crises and so rely on the richer nations for recovery
- natural disasters, famine or a serious disease outbreak
- the 2014 ebola epidemic, the USA, UK and france led the crisis response in Liberia, Sierra Leone and guinea, deploying military and medical assets
how do super powers and emerging nations play a role in global action through climate change
super powers are essential to helping mitigate climate change as they have the greatest capacity to do so.
they are the highest contributors to green house gas emissions
they are wealthy and have the economic availability to fund research and the devlopment of mitigation strategies.
explain the UN security council and their problems
the UN is made up of 5 permanent members (FUURC) france USA UK Russia China
their role:
- to maintain international peace and security through cooperating in solving international problems and harmonise the actions of nations
step 1: special convoys, mediation fact finding missions
step 2: if things become hostile they must issue ceasefire directives, deploy peacekeeping troops
step 3: enforcement measures including economic sanctions, withdrawal of diplomats or an arms embargoes (ban on buying arms)
step 4: the authorisation of ‘all necessary measures’ by multinational forces, putting in stooped, man to man conflict
cons:
- bureaucratic (lots of paperwork)
- everyone has a different political ideology and so it is hard to come to big decisions
what is geopolitical intervention?
when you get involved in a different country for political reasons
what are the military, economic and environmental alliances?
military -
NATO and ANZUS
economic-
NAFTA, EU , ASEAN
environmental-
IPCC
for NATO: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved: 30 members
their role: to guarantee the freedom and security of its members through political or military means and promote democratic values and prevent conflict through the peaceful resolution of disputes
pros:
- their share interest of keeping the west together against the soviet threat
- shared ideologies and no conflicts in interests, work together on shared challenges, e.g. the rise of North Korea
- they transformed Europe after the war from one that was divided to one that is free and at peace, promoted the need for cooperation to promote global peace, geopolitical stability
cons:
- western norms and values are challenged due to the rise of the east and powers such as china with a growing geostrategic importance of the pacific and Indian ocean
- they are a very large alliance and so it is difficult for decisions to be made quickly
for the EU: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved: 31 member states
their role: aims to bind economies and reduce trade barriers between the member states through adopting a common set of values governing trade facilitated through their single currency
pros:
- it adopts a policy of convergence to reduce inequalities between its richest and poorest countries
- through having set regulations it allows for a level playing field
- fairness and global stability as all to the same standard
cons: increased tensions between those who support a greater convergence and right-wing political parties calling for separation
for NAFTA: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
what is their main role:
- to eliminate any barriers to trade between the three countries and boost trade/prosperity, they aim to resolve any trade disputes seen through tensions from unemployment
pros:
- quadrupled trade, boosted economic growth and lowered prices for consumers
- they have been able to reduce their reliance on the Middle East for oil
- fostering a neutral environment in order to address shared challenges and promote peace and global stability, previous disputes with US workers moving to Mexico
- more interdependent economies in car manufacturing parts are found in all 3 countries and so this reduces their reliance on Japanese imports, they work together to promote development
cons:
- NAFTA’s competitive pressure on Mexico led to increase in fertilisers, environmental damage
- conflicts with those moving to Mexico for cheaper manufacturing
- workers in Mexico are often exploited
for ASEAN: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved:
ten southeast Asian nations
what is its role:
they promote the economic growth of their economies through co-operation and reducing trade barriers within member states to share expertise
pros:
- they can work together in addressing shared issues such as those in the south china sea
- build economic prosperity from ensuring protection from the exploitation of richer nations by sharing resources
cons:
- they have different economic situations, political institutions and religions making it difficult to implement effective policies for all members
for IPCC: what is their main role, who is involved and what are their pros and cons
who is involved:
they currently have 195 members
their role:
- to provide governments at all levels with scientific information that they can use to develop climate policies
- their reports are also a key input into international climate change negotiations
pros:
- they have allowed for governments to work together and co-operate in solving the issue of climate change, shared interests, paris agreement
- through climate change being addressed through their comprehensive scientific reports it would lead to fewer environmental refugees meaning more peace and less unrest
cons:
- very large number of members, how are they to control the actions of these businesses, long consultation is needed for stability
- revealed preference theory, not legally binding
for un security council-peacekeeping missions: what is their main role and what are their pros and cons
their role:
- help to monitor and diffuse tensions between groups, promote peace and security
- helps host countries to become more resilient to conflict, by addressing root causes of conflict
positives in ensuring geopolitical stability:
- through their efforts in ensuring global peace it means that groups are less likely to respond in an aggressive way, less unrest
- through helping innocent people and refugees as seen in the sudanese crisis through setting up refugee camps it ensured geopolitical stability through minimising the conflict that could arise through the movement of people
cons:
- their success is often debated often with minimal results from their missions, often NATO need to step up in order to achieve any sort of positive result
explain the overlap between economic and military alliances and geostrategy
it creates interdependence in terms of geostrategy
- Economic prosperity requires geopolitical stability which is ensured by military alliances
explain how the UN’s involvement with climate change has ensured geopolitical stability
They carry out extensive research so that the international community is aware of what is happening and what might happen in the future. Famine and drought can cause civil unrest.
- Were central to the Marrakesh agreement where developed nations have agreed to help developing countries reach climate goals by providing funding and suppling green technology. This helps to maintain geopolitical stability because countries work together to ensure climate goals are met meaning there is less conflict over natural resources (e.g. water).
- the 2015 Paris agreement marked when countries agreed to significantly reduce emissions
- However, it is weakened by a lack of accountability/consequences meaning it is not legally binding and there is no real incentive to comply (Revealed Preference Theory). Failure to do so may cause conflict.
which alliances are the most or least effective
Most effective- NATO, through shared ideologies in ensuring global stability and peace it means that they are to achieve the greatest success in ensuring the protection of the population, quite a big group which have been able to achieve great things, their success in resembling the world after the world war demonstrates their power in achieving change
Least effective- the EU, they are starting to adopt different visions for the future of our world economy, through being such a large bloc it means that there is a lot of conflict of interests and so it is hard for them to come to formal agreements, the threat that Brexit has on the rest of the eu members as through losing the UK they will lose an essential trading partner and if their leave proves to be beneficial then others might follow in their steps
why do superpowers have a high demand for resources?
- rising middle class means that there is an increased demand for fossil fuels as they start to use resource-intensive appliances
- due to their large population it leads to them demanding more food and water
- rising wealth contributes in the increase in demand for minerals as they turn towards more premium products
- rising demand for consumer goods from the rise in the wealthy, perfume consumption up by 133%
- threatened water resources as they all have showers and toilets due to their wealth, increasing consumerism
explain what environmental degradation is, linking in overfarming and desertification
environmental degradation- a worsening in the quality of the environment
overfarming leads to degradation that eventually leads to desertification
what impact is this high demand of resources having on the environment? (form synoptic links)
- overfarming is leading to land degradation and therefore leads to desertification
- carbon footprint of population is increasing due the increased meat consumption, need for resources results in higher carbon emissions due to need for extraction
- the need for resources such as palm oil is leading to forest loss as they are having to burn down natural forest (carbon release) but soon the soils nutrients will be insufficient, resulting in desertification forest loss and so less carbon sequestration and more carbon to be released
- flooding through the extraction of groundwater due to higher demand, leading to dry soils and therefore this can become impermeable as a salt crust is formed
explain what superpower resource demands are having on emissions
global carbon emissions in 2015
1) China (29%)
2) USA (14%)
3) EU (10%)
- eastern countries are seeing increasing co2 emissions, Asia and Oceania up by 7.5%, as they develop
- russia have seen decreases in emissions perhaps not as they are trying to reduce emissions but due to their fall in manufacturing and failing economy, when they bounce back this is scheduled to go back up again
- africa have very low emissions, South Africa is the main emitter (emerging nation)
- between 1990 and 2014 china’s emissions increased by 286%- over 5 times the rate of global increase
- superpowers, exceptionally large consumer society, they can afford polluting appliances
- any attempt to reduce greenhouse gases will fail until big emitters agree as they contribute so much
how do superpower resource demands for food cause environmental degradation
- china’s large pork industry as a result of the rising wealth
- as their incomes rise they can afford to eat more and more meat, cattle pumping out methane
- India’s demand for food and water are unsustainable as even today India struggles with adequate water supply
- the impact of overpopulation in superpower nations is causing environmental degradation due to the high rise in the amount of yield to satisfy demand, environmentally harmful methods of farming
what is happening to industrial water used, forest loss and global warming as a result of superpower resource needs
industrial water use
-hydroponic farming is farming in water
- USA’s largest exporter in agriculture and therefore has complex irrigation systems, uses the most water
forest loss
- africa and south America, rainforest loss
- europe’s is extremely low
global warming
- the US, USA and India have caused a disproportionate amount of global warming relative to its size
- as counties globalise and expand their economies they increase their emissions, globalisation = environmental degradation, need for degrowth
can you become a global superpower without damaging the environment?
yes:
- through the use of renewable energy you can develop further whilst protecting the environment
- when you have reached a certain stage you can afford to run your economy on a cleaner model, as seen in china
- the rise fa. green Brazil proves its success through 47% of energy being green
- growing incomes leads to the ability to develop to purchase sustainable products, electric cars
no:
- you need to undertake manufacturing in order to develop your economy
- globalisation and the increase in global supply chains, environmental damage through transport costs
- our economy is run on carbon emissions, would need large scale restructuring which is not possible for emerging markets
- the emissions of the USA as no.1 emitter of carbon imply that it is not possible to achieve hegemony/superpower status without emitting
what are the three UN climate change conferences?
KYOTA AGREEMENT 1997
- first time countries agreed to cut greenhouse gases over a 5 year period
- they agreed on varying degrees
EU- 8% (combined emissions, perhaps easier to cut down collectively)
USA- 7%
Russia- 0%
The USA pulled out of this perhaps as a lot fo money comes from manufacturing, it is a very large country, they all drive big cars, varying climates rely on heating and air con
PARIS AGREEMENT 2015
- to keep global temps below 2ºC above preindustrial temps
- rich countries must financially support developing countries to use renewable resources
- nearly 200 countries agreed, the USA agreed but then trump pulled out once in power, china and russia agreed
MARRAKESH 2016
- focused on helping developing nations to transition to renewable energy
- agreeing funds from developed nations to developing nations
- developed having to help, the USA have had their time of industrialisation, their turn now, dependency
- the protection of renewable energy were also agreed
what is china’s approach to renewable energy?
- they have been heavily investing in renewable energy as they look towards technological innovation, they want to patent goods
- they are using other countries to do polluting jobs in order to make their country look good
- they have moved polluting industries to the countryside as it is the urban areas which are measured for pollution
what are the consequences of increased consumption regarding resource demands
as demand increases for key resources such as water oil and gas there willbe less available which will cause the prices of them to rise as a result
as demand increases and prices rise degradation of the environmnet will increase as the new areas become profitable to exploit e.g the arctic for oil
explain the willingness of the USA to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- they have shown global leadership since 2005 reduced global emissions most of all, from 2005-15 US wind power tripled in output and solar energy by ten times
- Obama introduced measures to reduce emissions through greater energy efficiency, carbon pollution standards for electricity generation and promoting renewable energy
- president Biden has promoted a more forward thinking to climate change
NO:
- trump is in favour of ‘making America great again’ by increasing manufacturing which will ultimately increase emissions, embraces nationalism and wants to protect from china’s rise
- reducing energy emissions would cost energy companies money, thus harming the economy, despite being the 2nd largest GDP, business executives could not be in favour of this
explain the willingness of the EU to act to reduce carbon emissions
54% of people see climate change as a serious problem
YES:
- they have been at the forefront of climate initiatives, e.g. emissions reductions (working with manufacturers of vehicles) and grants to encourage renewable energy
- by 2020, they aim to have cut overall energy use by 20%
- they provide large grants for companies to convert to or invest in renewable eerngy
- they have the money to invest, they patent a lot
NO:
- the CAP protected european farmers from imports which resulted in intensive farming methods that were extremely harmful to the environment, under criticism for their farming methods
explain the willingness of Russia to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- they surprisingly signed up to the 2015 Paris agreement
- they have invested heavily in nano-technology, energy efficiency and laws, perhaps to increase soft power and improve geo-political relations
- In 1990 they promised to reduce emissions by 30%, they actually reduced them by 35% (mainly due to their economic crash) their emissions will most likely increase as they recover
NO:
- their economy is heavily reliant on oil, they are not interested in stopping this
- as its economy stabilises it is likely that they will see an increase in emissions
explain the willingness of China to act to reduce carbon emissions
YES:
- in 2016 they finally agreed to reduce emissions and is now heavily investing in renewable resources, find a comparative advantage, innovation
- they’ve become increasingly concerned about their reputation, through going green they can improve their reputation, spending lots of money on going green
- province of Qinghai ran on 100% renewable energy for 7 days proving it is possible, provided for their pop of 5.6 million people
- they have accepted that things cannot return back to normal after COVID, expanded initiatives such as ‘grain for green’ and the ‘ecological function zoning’
- in 2018, china’s renewable consumption was 38% larger than the USAs and triple that of Germany, 29% growth in renewables in 2018 alone
NO:
- in 2018 manufacturing still accounted for 41% of Chinese GDP
- coal still accounts for 58% of china’s total primary energy consumption in 2018
- only 18% of china’s pop see climate change as a serious issue, their focus is largely on economic development not environmental issues, they agreed to reduce emissions after 2030
compared to the rest of the world, how significant are the contributions that superpowers make to carbon emissions and global warming
- china and USA have the worst air pollution, the two highest GDP countries have the greatest emissions, relationship
- Africa have very low emissions with south Africa being the main emitter (BRICS nation, emerging)
- any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail until the big emitters agree as they account for such a large percentage of global emissions
- the USA and China have been reluctant to set emission reduction targets whereas the EU lead in climate action, the EU and US emission are static or falling (greater efficiency and some green policies) but china’s emissions are still rising (emerging manufacturing)
- the superpowers are very globalised and so they operate on a global scale resulting in high emissions from transport of goods internationally
Explain the reasons why there are differences in the willingness to act on environment issues
- their economy may be centralised towards an emitting industry (USA, manufacturing) (russia, oil)
- their degree of development, not all can afford to engage in environmental practises, the EU have patented many goods and so they have the money to invest
- if they have a need to develop their soft power, perhaps they need to improve their reputation (China)
- the intentions and values of the political figures, (e.g. EU, Biden vs Trump)
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact rare earths in terms of the environment, price and availability
- business of generating earth elements worth US$4 billion a year, collective worth of companies estimated at $5 trillion
- cerium (catalytic convertors) and neodymium (wind turbines and hybrid cars)
environment
- a great deal of water, acid and electricity is used in extraction process to serape the ore from toxins, many of which are carcinogenic
- processing one tonne of rare earths can produce 2000 tonnes of toxic waste, if this mixes with surface water it will have a major environmental impact
- in Baotou (a small village in china), 10 million tonnes of waste water per year is pumped into containment ponds from where it seeps into groundwater and drinking sources
price
- the higher value of these materials have meant the expansion of mining in other parts of the world due to economic benefits
- more basic metals such as copper, tin and platinum at risk of supply shortages and dramatic price changes
- as china’s growth has slowed since 2010, commodity prices have fall back due to lower demand
availability
- in recent years china have restricted the refining and eventual export of the products to keep prices high
- the demand for lithium-based batteries is very high and could be hard to meet in the future
- china has tried to guarantee commodity supplies by buying up companies overseas by investing in africa to supply commodities
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact water in terms of the environment, price and availability
Environment
- the increase in demand of water has meant that people are going towards more environmentally harmful sources of wate, not sustainable
Price
- prices are expected to rise significantly due to the increase in water demand and the increase in water scarcity, china has double the UN definition of water scarcity
- prices are rising due to the increase in the privatisation of water, due to the lack of water available privately owned water supplies are able to push prices up significantly, leading to conflict amongst residents, water crisis in Bolivia
Availability
- In some states of India, groundwater is being used three times faster than it can be replenished, by 2030 60% of areas will be facing water scarcity
- As glaciers melt and river discharge decreases due to their source diminishing, climate change could make the availability of water worse
- many Californian farmers are using more groundwater but the water table is dropping and ground subsidence has been noted
- some emerging powers are already experiencing water supply problems, especially India
- in Beijing total consumption exceeded supply by 70% in 2012 as more residents installed showers and flush toilets
explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact oil in terms of the environment, price and availability Environment
Environment
- global oil demand was about 95 million barrels per day in 2015, many environmental impacts, oil leaks, global warming, rise by around 30% by 2030
- there will be more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in the quest to access raw materials
Price
- meeting the demand of oil may lead to price rises and/or supply shortages, supply is quite inelastic
- through the increasing demand it can lead to Saudi Arabia influencing the price of oil by cutting back supply leading to a significant rise in price.
Availability
- predictions that oil will run out by 2061, ‘peak oil’ has certainly passed which has put pressure on more remote areas such as the Arctic Ocean from oil exploitation
- as the middle class increases it will lead to them having higher aspirations to own a car, and therefore the increase in income can cause a proportionately bigger % increase in demand
give some statistics on the rise of the middle class
- the global middle class is expected to increase from 2 billion in 2012 to 5 billion by 2030
- in 2016 china had 150 million middle class members, expected to reach one billion by 2030
- 4.9 billion people middle class in 2020, 3.2 billion of this in Asia
what is happening to demand for food and metal industry as middle income earners rise
demand for meat, dairy products and sugar will also rise as these countries transition to ‘western’ diets
- changing diets in china leading to rise in obesity
- china’s demand for raw materials is such that it accounted for 90% of the global growth in sea traffic in the 21st century
- china’s steel industry is biggest in the world, a steel industry x4 the size of the USAs, they are the biggest producer and consumer of steel in the world
explain why tensions can arise over resources in disputed areas such as the arctic
- multiple borders cross leading to conflict arising as people try to claim land for resources, several national claims to large parts of the arctic
- any attempt to drill for oil and gas in the arctic could become a source of diplomatic conflict
- as resources become increasingly scarce it means that countries can become increasingly violent in terms of gaining resources, e.g. setting ships alight
- the resources in the arctic are worth a lot of money, Russia’s share of the arctic is worth $22 trillion and there is a lot there for the economies in order to develop, the Scandinavian countries that have access to these resources rely on this in developing their weaker economy
what is the long term solution to disputes over resources (in the arctic)
come to agreements as to what area of the arctic they own in order to prevent conflict and violence, countries set up and manage national parks
- could create an arctic global sanctuary where none of the resources are touched in order to preserve the natural environment, this would result in a loss of conflict as no one could access the resources
- create more legally-binding agreements in order to create a larger threat for those who choose to go against agreements, legal action
- innovations often solve disputes in the long term
- energy independence, common set of rules for all the players involved
give a brief explanation of what is happening in the arctic in terms of the tensions arising
- it is the deepest oil-filled basin in the world
- multiple borders cross leading to conflict arising as people try to claim land for resources, the US, canada, russia, Norway, Iceland and Denmark all have claims over large areas of the arctic
- holds 90 billion barrels of oil, holds 30% of undiscovered gas and 13% undiscovered oil
- UN convention on the law of the sea (UNCLOS) states that anyone can lay claim to land (seabed and resources) that is 200 nautical miles from its coastline, these zones overlap in the case of the arctic
- the north-west passage water is deeper than the Panama route, they can transport more cargo, cheaper and produce less emissions, countries claim this is an international passage, these maritime trade routes are now becoming highly monopolised
- because of climate change ice is thawing, allowing for new shipping routes, north-west passage allows for shorter distance time, drilling for oil and gas has also increased through the new areas to explore due to the ice melting
what are the conflicts/viewpoints of different countries on the arctic
- USA argue that the current allocations are not fair, US’ share of the arctic said to be worth $8 trillion whereas Russia’s is $22 trillion, they rejected to sign the convention on the law of the seas
- since 2002 canada has carried out military exercises in the arctic, Norway expanded its navy, russia carries out arctic bomber patrols and Denmark is creating an arctic military command and response force
- in 2007, a Russian submarine sailed beneath the North Pole and planted a titanium Russian flag on the seabed claiming the territory
- the eu and nine of the biggest fishing nations have signed an agreement to temporarily prohibit fishing in the central arctic for 16 years in order to allow scientific research to examine the area unhindered
- Since 2007, military patrols and activity have increased in the Arctic, as each country shows how interested it is in the area, and willing to defend its claims.
what is the economic, environmental and political importance of the arctic
economic
- the resources found or still undiscovered in the arctic are worth trillions, Russia’s share worth $22 trillion
- important for the future of oil, will this importance decrease?
- allows for cheaper transport routes
environmental
- permafrost and glaciers contain lots of greenhouse gases so cant risk releasing these gases due to climate change
- the arctic, a mixture of freshwater and seawater influences ocean currents around the world
political
- the convention on the law of the seas allows for future gain in terms of territory
- massive geopolitical significance, fight for power, obtaining extremely valuable resources that give countries a comparative advantage
what is the exclusive economic zone (arctic)
the area of ocean extending 200 nautical miles beyond the coastline (or to the edge of the continental shelf), over which a nation controls the sea and sub-sea resources. The EEZ borders are decided by the UN in the event of a dispute
what are the overall problems with the arctic ?
- any attempt to drill oil and gas in the arctic could become a source of diplomatic conflict
- risk of environmental disaster is high due to large oil spills contaminating the largely untouched ecosystem with an indigenous pop
- the attitude of conversation may changes as resources elsewhere become scarce and people look at the arctic
superpowers and emerging nations need physical resources and often they must turn to international trade which is risky due to trading with countries with unstable regimes (Iran) or during conflicts trade routes and supply might be blocked
what are three options for managing the arctic?
1) business as usual
- individual territorial areas are managed by the respective countries, self regulation and a reactive approach to issues tackled by global legislation e.g. UNCLOS
2) arctic framework
- set up under the 1966 Ottawa declaration and involves the 8 arctic countries
- this is solely a forum but could become a treaty-based regulatory body
- in the future they could adopt a more proactive approach in managing the arctic
3) arctic global sanctuary
- it would create a biosphere reserve as suggested by Greenpeace in 2012 and leave the area untouched
- this was not widely accepted due to the high levels of extraction of resources
- the arctic is also less isolated than regions with similar protection programmes (Antarctic = international antarctic treaty) and have a significant population living in the arctic circle meaning that this would be unreasonable
give 3 statistics on counterfeiting
- the domestic value of US counterfeit seizures totals $260.7 million
- counterfeiting costs the G20 $85 billion per year
- 3.3% of all global trade is counterfeit goods, country most affected is the USA
what is the problem with counterfeiting on economic tensions and TNC investment?
TNC INVESTMENT
- counterfeiting reduces the incentive to innovate, they spend billions on innovation for people to cheaply couterfeit their ideas
- people introducing counterfeited goods reduces sales for TNCs and so lower tax revenues and less growth
- often organised groups/gangs, they won’t pay tax for their goods and so china’s gov won’t get tax revenue
- TNCs are reluctant to set up or invest in china as their profits are likely to be reduced, they fear IP theft
- the Chinese gov dont act on counterfeiting as employees will pay tax and then spend it in china which means gov revenue will go up even if firms dont pay tax
- counterfeit goods sales account for 5-8% of China’s GDP, harder to make trade deals with china
ECONOMIC TENSIONS
- china cyber hacks the US’ ideas, they steal their product details and counterfeit, zero trust between china and the US
- china do not create the chips for apple as they would just steal their chip idea
- trade agreements are hard to finalise if one side believes they won’t get a good deal
explain emerging economies and their vulnerability to counterfeiting
- they are very vulnerable, it has found a place in africa
- as china innovates they want to protect its own industries and so patent applications are increasing
- Nigerian trade talks have broken down over faulty electrical goods and fires, counterfeiting in emerging nations in electrical goods has led to the promotion of sub-standard products, can be very dangerous, often lesser quality, they put consumers at risk
explain the laws behind counterfeiting
- it constitutes an international crime against intellectual property rights under WTO rules
- trade-related aspects of intellectual property rights (known as TRIPS), it is part of long-standing attempts to negotiate international rights for companies
what is a sphere of influence?
a physical region over which a country believes it has economic, military, cultural or political rights. often they extend beyond the borders of a country and represents a region where the country believes it has the right to influence the policies of other countries, e.g. china into africa
which global players are involved in the conflict of the south china sea and why?
Brunei + Malaysia- claimed sovereignty over southern parts of the sea and some of Spratly Islands
The Philippines- asserts ownership of the Spratly archipelago and the Scarborough Shoal
Taiwan
Vietnam- claims sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands
China’s claims are based on assertation that the disputed islands are Chinese territory because they’re sitting on an extension of its continental shelf. China’s territorial claim clearly overlaps the claims of the other countries which has led to much conflict, resulting in China setting up military bases in the Spratly Islands, including a 3km long aircraft runway on Fiery Cross Reef. Many countries are worried about this development. They will be used for military purposes even though they built it saying it was to help ecosystems.
China say the nine-dash line is legal binding however other players do not believe this, Philippines going to the UN, law of the sea that China signed, surely it is legally binding if they signed it, the USA did not sign it and so they believe they can do whatever what they want
give a rough timeline of the events that have taken place in the south china sea
1947- the republic of china government publishes an eleven-dash line on a map which claims the whole of the SCS including waters adjacent to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam
1982- UNCLOS is established, defines the rights and responsibilities of nations in their use of surrounding waters based on exclusive economic zones and continental shelves
2002- China and the ten ASEAN states reach an agreement on the ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, in the aim to ease tensions and create guidelines for conflict resolution, first time China accepts a multilateral approach to the issue
2011- US affirms interest in South China Sea, foreign policy shift towards a focus on Asia
2012- China detains 21 Vietnamese fishermen in the Paracel Islands, alleging they had been fishing in Chinese waters illegally
2013- China announces an air defence identification zone in the east china sea claiming the right to monitor and intercept aircraft it finds within the zone
2016- satellite imagery shows China expanding Tree Island and North Island in the Paracels
2018- the ASEAN defence ministers sink the world’s first multilateral air guidelines aimed at ensuring safe passage for military aircraft and for ships over the high seas.
In June 2019 a Philippine fishing boat sunk after it was struck by a Chinese vessel
explain the impacts on the people and the environment of the conflicts around the south china sea
impacts on the people
• Violence of their retaliation measures through setting boats alight has led to many conflicts
- The increased pollution in waters due to mass oil spills and pollution from boats has led to contaminated water supplies for developing players around the sea, host of diseases, e.g. cholera and worms
- Allies formed in the south china sea (US and Philippines) lays the foundations for future investments, increase in trade and therefore economic growth and therefore social spending, increases the influence of democratic values
- The disparity within the different players has meant that superpowers such as China dominate over the physical resources, they have the best boats and military compared to Brunei who will most likely be unsuccessful in obtaining resources (lack of hard power)
impacts on the environment
• The expansion of tree island north island in the paracels has led to a disruption in natural ecosystems and scenic beauty
• The scale of extraction of oil in the sea has led to mass oil spills, polluting the waters and killing masses of fish and biodiversity, getting into the food chain
• The implementation of military bases and checks has led to an increase in emissions from boats, disrupting the environment
• Exploitation of natural resources, finite resources
explain the impacts on the people and the environment of the conflicts around the western russia/Eastern Europe conflicts
impacts on people
- Loss of autonomy as they are now part of an East-West power struggle.
- The open conflict in Crimea has led to the forced displacement of tens of thousands of people, as well as hundreds of deaths.
- Collapse of tourism industry as Russian military presence makes the area unappealing. This disrupts peoples’ livelihood’s as approximately 70% of tourists were from Ukraine.
- The build up of armed forces in the Baltic States created a country of insecurity and discomfort
- Ethnic divisions formed in Ukraine resulting in many conflicts of interests, killed tens of thousands of people, protests in the streets
- The Ukraine have become the target of a number of cyberattacks, power blackouts
impacts on the environment
• It will reduce the size of Ukraine’s EEZ in the Black Sea. This will prevent them from extracting hydrocarbons from the sea, creating environmental benefits. However, if these fall to Russia, it may exacerbate environmental degradation.
• Its geo-strategic location with large masses of resources (oil) has led to an increase in stress on the physical environment, Russia want to join their oil reserves and exploit it before protection measures come into place
explain the conflict occurring in Eastern Europe
Eastern European countries joining the EU, and moves by Georgia and Ukraine to do so, angered Russia, leading to the Russian invasions of parts of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, as well as a build up of NATO armed forces in the Baltic States
- after the USSR collapsed in 1991 many Eastern European countries felt a desire for independence and to break away from Russian influence, Eastern European states went to join the EU with western areas bordering russia (Belarus) are still influenced by russia in terms of their economy, culture and political systems
- some former soviet states such as the ukraine have looked towards NATO and the EU, they are very against Russia’s use of hard power on the country, cybersecurity (hacking) and disrupting supply chains, huge threat
- NATO want the Ukraine, put in troops. next to border and put in western influences in the country (freedom and democracy), easy invasion, since the Cold War they have wanted to expand east and get countries to join europe and therefore NATO, in 2008 Ukraine asked to join nato
- the 2010 Ukraine election was one candidate routing towards sustaining ties to Russia and the other to join europe, Russian ties are in the east, the leader was very close to Putin, corruption, he got overthrown and interim gov was introduced
- russia entered crimea and put in troops (hard power, tanks) to intimidate and let the people vote, everyone voted to stay in Russian federation
- NATO havent acted on the invasion of crimea, they dont see it as a big deal, they focus on other things
explain what has happened to the economic centre of gravity?
it has moved as economic gain might
- it has shifted from the west well into the east recently, however western values are still just as influential
what are 5 reasons for china’s investment in africa
- china’s belt and road initiative (2013), their plan to open out global trade markets, maximise trade with new markets, $1 trillion plan, Tazara railway erected in 1976, railway is the most efficient way for transporting freight and people (inter-model containerisation), migration leading to economic development
- perhaps it is to gain influence rather than for economic gain, strategic policy that they want to gain soft power
- diplomacy and allies help gain power in IGOs, voting power
- natural resources in order to obtain power, in 2010 80% of all african exports to china were minerals
- fewer strings attached, no human rights, exploitation
what is china investing in Kenya and what are the benefits and drawbacks to Kenya of this investment
Their investment is very much centralised around infrastructure developments in the country, building sufficient roads and railways in order to transport goods to Kenyan ports and therefore to other nations, access the Indian Ocean
The Maritime Silk Road (MSR) forms one part of the BRI and it involes the upgrading of the Mombasa Port, the building of a new ultra-modern port in Lamu and the construction of a new standard gauge railway line (SGR). The railways line is estimated to cost $25 billion, 90% of that being financed by China EXIM Bank
Kenya’s geographical advantage and comparative strength in political stability and economic development has made Kenya China’s focal point in their ‘One belt one road’ policy
A $3.2 billion railway that links the capital of Nairobi to Mombasa’s port
benefits:
Kenya has become the second-largest economy in the East African region, fourth largest economy in Sub-Saharan Africa
According to the World Bank’s Doing Business Index, Kenya has risen over 40 places to rank 80 in 2017
Ernst & Young identifies Kenya as the second most attractive investment destination in Africa after Morocco
drawbacks:
Kenya was identified as one of three African countries at most risk of debt distress due to its participation in its Belt and Road initiative
Kenya’s public debt has surpassed $50 billion, they owe 72% of its bilateral debt and 21% of its overall debt to China
The USA refer to China’s involvement in Kenya as a form of ‘debt-trap diplomacy
what is china investing in Djibouti and what are the benefits and drawbacks to Djibouti of this investment
What are they investing in?
They are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative
China want to take advantage of their geo-strategic location, between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, very close to the Middle East’s oil
China are building a $3.5 billion free-trade zone, expected to be Africa’s largest
Infrastructure investments, a railway and two airports ($420 million contract) and a pipeline to supply Djibouti with water from Ethiopia ($320 million contract)
benefits:
The free trade zone that is being built in Djibouti is expected to create 200,000 new jobs and handle over $7 billion in trade from 2018 to 2020
drawbacks:
Their public external debt is said to have risen from 50% of their GDP in 2016 to 104% by the end of 2018, much based on its Chinese lending, in 2018 it was estimated that they owed at least $1.2 billion to China
what are the overall benefits and drawbacks to African countries of investment from china
positives:
- The free trade zone that is being built in Djibouti is expected to create 200,000 new jobs and handle over $7 billion in trade from 2018 to 2020
- $13 billion investment into infrastructure, greater connectivity, reduce transport costs across the country, become more attractive for investment, TNCs
negatives:
- ‘debt-trap diplomacy’, $132 billion loans from china to africa between 2006 and 2017, public debt in Kenya equates to 60% of GDP
- environmental degradation, exploitation of natural resources due to fewer regulations, coltan
- local markers put out of business, EOS of china
what are the overall benefits and drawbacks to china of its investment in africa
positives:
- through setting up military bases on the port of moms in Djibouti, gain access to the Red Sea and the middle east, contract to lease the site to reply 10,000 troops
- alliances formed, gain voting power in IGOs
- benefits through leakages, TNCs
negatives:
- conflict has arisen with the USA, until 2014 the US invested more into africa than china, they have a base, threat of usa coming back
- conflict with local communities and IGOs, exploitation of the africans has meant that some IGOs are not willing for china to be a part of their group
- interdependent on other countries to supply them with resources, threat of the USA blocking china’s sea routes in SCS, they could prevent the transport of their African exports
explain the rise of economic importance in china and india and their relations
- india and china represent 36% of the world’s pop,18% of global GDP, 32% of global carbon emissions
- both china and india are a part of g20
- they are ideological rivals, india is the world’s largest democracy, whereas china is a communist dictatorship
- they share a border but parts are disputed (aksai chin)
- china created strong economic alliance with Pakistan focused o n$54 billion Chinese investment in CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) but Pakistan and india have tense, antagonistic relations
- china has the upper-hand in terms of economics, as india has a large trade deficit (imports more than exports) with china
what tensions have arisen between india and china
- they are rivals in outer space, they both have advanced space programmes, both have an aircraft carrier and are building more, demonstrating they have regional (if not global) naval ambitions
- china is concerned about India’s military interest in the south china sea
explain the political and economic tensions between asian nations
- tensions are historic although they have improved in the 21st century with large amounts of trade now occurring
- heavy investment by the usa into japan to aid its post-war recovery like the european Marshall plan, increased tensions as Japan adopted a western capitalist economic recovery, not liked by chain
- the power of china to take over tibet, conflicts have arisen, china is said to be suppressing Tibetan religion, culture and freedom of expression, china have encouraged ethnic Chinese migrants to move to tibet, put in their ideologies, they have put in a high-speed rail link to help
- conflicts with Taiwan, put in sanctions , no peace treaty has ever been signed
- the mekong river, damming, conflicts with Laos and Thailand
- north-south water transfer project, taking water from Tibetan plateau
why is the Middle East an area of tension?
- the world economy runs on crude oil, the Middle East contains 60% of proven oil reserves so no superpower or emerging power can ignore it
- it is a melting point of different religions, ideologies conflict, sunni (Saudi Arabia, syria, turkey) vs Shia (Iran, Iraq)
- high level of contested land
- since 2011 the rise of the extremist group islamic state in Iraq and syria has created wars, terrorism and a refugee crisis
- their different attitudes to religion, trade, special relations and women differ, this means that relationships between them are not always easy
explain the war in syria
- it is a proxy war, Russian-backed military vs US-backed military
players are: - the Syrian gov (Russians backing, sending in weapons)
- the opposition (civilians, USA backing, providing weapons), ISIS, Rojava (Kurds in the north)
- rojava want to keep their territory from ISIS, they are an autonomous region with equal gender rights, progressive, they do not pose threats to ISIS, they just want security, Turkey invaded Rojava as they dont like the large Kurdish pop which has formed in their country , rojava bombing them as they want more land , US in 2019 sent in troops to Rojava to help them but then pulled out as they thought their approach was too short-term, straight after turkey invaded rojava, missile strikes, they didn’t like the power that they gained
- the UN nations veto powers are completely divided, russia and china keep on preventing action, NATO want to intervene, chemical bombs being dropped and food cut off by assad
- syria’s geo-strategic location where russia uses it as a trade route to get to europe, they dont want syria to fall to the west
- iraq and Iran have same. ideologies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar provide help for rebel forces
where did the UN go wrong and why hasn’t the syrian crisis been sorted out? what should we do to stop the conflict?
- it is all come due to a weakness in the UN security council, they should’ve stepped in, prevented oppression vs freedom conflicts, prevention of this proxy war
While 13 or 14 council members are willing to act, the Russian Federation uses its veto power to prevent action, it is all down to them, they are mobbing hospitals
South Africa’s representative has urged external powers to stop supporting armed groups and to stop using the conflict as a proxy for the advancement of their own interests
The governments of Russia, Iran and China have already secured huge contracts in the hydrocarbons, minerals, telecommunications, construction and electricity sectors among others, investment from BRIC countries also visible
Estimated $200-300 billion for the reconstruction of Syria, this would take much longer if western economies were not to get involved
what are the economic and environmental tensions in the middle east
economic
- the wider middle east region has become an essential supplier oil from Libya, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the rise of ISIS in Iraq since the invasion of allied forces has focused western interests on defending the country’s oil reserves
- turkey sells its water resources
environmental
- past conflicts often resulted in damage to oil installations particularly in Kuwait after the first gulf war in 1991 (when the iraq leader tried to take over Kuwait)
- opposers target their oil resources, destroy them
what are the economic costs of maintaining superpower status?
- costs of participating in IGOs, the cost of movements of people, forming diplomatic relations, you are expected to support people, development aid
- environmental impacts due to migration, growing pop
- expected to intervene in international conflict and and affairs, proxy war asks for intervention otherwise people will die, costly, timely
- certain levels of inequality, power of TNCs, exploitation, the capitalist superpowers are not structured to give equal grounding to everyone
- interdependence of economies through global trade makes your economy fragile to external shocks
- standing up for freedom may mean you are not necessarily liked, focus for terrorism (ISIS)
- debt, you need to be protected in terms of recession
explain the problems that arise through superpower status and how it has meant they have become economically weak
debt
- the recession created public debt, led to tax rises in some cases which slows the economy
- higher risk from economic crises, when a recession hits we become heavily reliant on FDI, making emerging countries increasingly politically and economically powerful
unemployment
- the rise in emerging nations in terms of manufacturing and innovation and competition has put western jobs out of use. e.g. general motors
- many rely on social security payments from the government
- uk’s traditional mining and manufacturing industries, red car and rust belt regions of the USA
economic restructuring
- EU and USA forced to move into more highly skilled escorts (tertiary, quaternary) but developments in education havent been fast enough, reskilling is needed
- global shift to asia has caused deindustrialisation in the US and EU, high costs linked to regeneration former industrial areas
- disadvantaged communities not been able to participate in tertiary and quaternary job market
explain the challenges for the USA due to their superpower status
economic
- national debt in 2016 at $19 trillion but rather stable due to TNCs
demographic
- growing pop leads to social costs rising, 415 mill by 2060
political
- race relations difficult in some parts, political parties often reach deadlock but US values are generally consistent across the country
resources
- more secure due to oil and gas fracking, water insecurity in south west
social
- health spending 17% of GDP, 74% obese
explain the challenges for the EU due to their superpower status
economic
- huge debt, €9.7 trillion in eurozone and £1.6 trillion in UK, 90% of their annual GDP, debt hindering economic growth
demographic
- ageing fast, EU workforce to drop by 14% by 2030 putting a burden on those working
political
- rise in the far right due to countries wanting deeper union (france and Germany), problems with immigration leading to conflict
resources
- energy insecurity, reliant on other countries for oil and gas, some comes from Russia’s pipelines
social
- youth unemployment high in EU at 22%, over 45% in Greece and Spain, risk of a lost generation and political disaffection (negative views towards political system)
what was the impact of the financial crisis?
- a stock-market crash in 2007-8 and a series of bank failures that in turn led to a global recession, business closures and rising unemployment
- the USA chose to increase national debt in order to maintain consumer spending and an economic multiplier effect
explain military expenditure around the world
regional military expenditure
1) North America (40% of GDP)
2) Europe (24% of GDP)
3) asia and oceania (22% of. GDP)
- Eastern Europe, North Africa, Middle East and central and South Asia spent more of their GDP on their military than on health
- whilst North America spends over 2x more on health than the military and the EU more than 5x the amount on military, in the grand scheme of things they can afford to do this, the 3.6% of NA’s GDP spending accounts to huge value
- in 2017 the USA wanted to spend a huge 54% of their $1.15 trillion budget on their military, compared to 5% on medicare/health and 6% on education, however this money could be spent in other ways, 13% of Americans live in poverty, roads need to be repaired
defence budgets (% of GDP)
1) Saudi Arabia (11.2%)
2) Russia (4.1%)
3) US (3.1%)
- perhaps they are the most threatened, resources to protect?
- USA and China account for 49% of military spending, costs of being a superpower
explain what is happening to military expenditure in emerging nations and in european countries
- the greatest increase in military expenditure between 2000-2012 was from emerging nations, rose by 325%
- they cannot fully develop without having a military, they are obtaining greater geo-political powers and this needs to be supported by a strong military to obtain hard power
- European countries seeing significant drop in global defence spending as theyre in alliances and the USA spends enough to support them all, they have geo-political stability
what are the 4 main investments into global military power
naval/air power
space exploration
nuclear deterrence
intelligence
what are the 4 main areas of military spending explained
naval power allows countries to project military dominance almost anywhere however advances made in land based missile technology have made them more vulnerable to attack
air power allows a superpower to dominate airspace and win wars from the air , modern technology means that drones are increasingly being used to search for and destroy precise targets. However drones are also more affordable than planes making them more accessible to poorer countries therefore air dominance becomes harder for super poewers
nuclear deterrence - many doubt its economic feasibility, most likely not to be used but is a strong form of hard power
- in 2016 the UK voted to update our nuclear weapons (trident), said to cost up to £250 billion over 50 years for purchase, maintenance and decommissioning
intelligence- helps protect the powers from threats including terrorist attacks, the UK’s MI5 prevented 9 terrorist attacks in 2017.
However the volume of intelligence data is more than can be processed for example the 9/11 terrorist attacks were not picked up in time.
why is it so hard to predict what might happen in the future in terms of global power?
- TECHNOLOGY, artificial intelligence, impact of technology, hacking, perhaps you won’t be able to maintain superpower status without technological advancements, terrorism, targeted attacks with drones (perhaps china’s reason for investment in tech)
- what are the future industries going to be, what type of industries will be essential (dependance of primary resources)
- world climate, will natural disasters wipe out Western Europe, future of tectonics and climate
- global diseases, was COVID deliberately used by china to wipe out the west, civil unrest through poor management, emphasises the global connections, deglobalise?
- rise in the far right, problems with governance, you need a stable government
what are the 4 possibilities for the future balance of global power?
1) US hegemony
2) Regional mosaic (multipolar)
3) new Cold War (bipolar)
4) asian century (unipolar)
explain the possibility for US hegemony in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- their TNCs and resilience will help them maintain hegemony, US dominance and economic and military alliances continue in a unipolar world
- china faces an economic crisis similar to japans in the 1990s and ceases to grow rapidly
yes:
- TNCs, soft power
- their role in IGOs, bargaining power
no:
- the rise of china
- they are becoming politically unstable, impact of trump
explain the possibility for a regional mosaic (multipolar) in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- emerging powers continue to grow while the EU and USA decline in relative terms, creating a multi polar world of broadly equal powers with regional but not global influence
- e.g. Brazil in south America dominates regionally
yes:
- the economic centre of gravity shifting
- impact of covid, interdependence of economies, looking more at regional trade as is safer and easier to control
no:
- global decision making would be much more difficult, how to make trade deals work, climate agreement, times of war
explain the possibility for a new Cold War (bipolar) in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- perhaps this is already happening in the case of the proxy war in syria
- either china or USA by 2030
- china rises to become equal power with the USA, many nations align with one or the other ideology, creating a bi-polar world similar to the Cold War period
yes:
- capitalist vs communist
- already happening, alliances happening, alliance with USA vs alliance with Asia (harsher regimes)
no:
- china too confrontational to let that happen
- risk of china, population size, rebellion and uprising of conflict
explain the possibility for an asian century (unipolar) in the future, why it could happen and why it couldn’t happen
- USA loses hegemony
- shift moves to south east asia, USA no longer considered as a superpower
- asian tigers control economics and politics
- economic, social and political problems reduce the power of the EU and USA
yes:
- china’s growth rate is faster than anyone else’s, SWF about to take over Norway’s SWF
no:
- tensions in asia, china doesnt like india, they have too many disputes in the region
- western soft power (influence too strong)
