superpowers ai

Question 1

what resources do super powers demand

Answer 1

food , fossil fuels , minerals

Question 2

summarise why superpowers have a high demand for resources

Answer 2

There are global enviornmental concerns implicated with superpowers as they have very large resource footprints – their large resource foorprints occurr as a result of maintaining a large economy , a military machine with global reach and a wealthy population requires energy, minerals land and resources . Therefore demand for resources is high in superpower regions.

Question 3

what are the three main reasons for superpowers to have high resource demands

Answer 3

rising middle class
large populations
increasing consumerism

Question 4

why does rising middle class lead to increased resource demands and environmental degradation - increased in demand for consumer goods

Answer 4

Rising middle class contributes to superpowers high demand for resources as there is an increasing volume of people who have a discretionary income , this discretionary income impacts peoples needs as they start to demand more resources such as consumer goods e.g perfume consumption up by 133% . This often leads to higher imports into a country increasing its carbon footprint

Question 5

why does rise in middle class lead to an increase in environmental degradation - nutrition transition

Answer 5

there are often changes in diet due to a rise in middle class e.g demands for meat and dairy as countries shift away from staple grains , (NUTRITION TRANSITION)this increasing demand for food leads to land conversion and cattle farming e.t.c produce co2 emissions.. For example deforestatsion and land degradation are a large problem for Emerging powers as they seek to convert more land into farmland e.g for cattle farming and increase their useage of chemicals such as fertilisers to increase their yield for crops , this increased use of fertiLszers can also run the risk of eutrophication leading to further environmental degradation

Question 6

Why does a rise in middle class lead to an increase in environmental degradation - increased demand for fossil fuels

Answer 6

rising middle class means that there is an increased demand for fossil fuels as they start to use resource-intensive appliances e.g china to fund their industrialisation or countries in general needing increaisng fossil fuels to meet their demand for energy

Question 7

why does a rise in middle class lead to an increase in environmental degradation - rare earth minerals

Answer 7

Rising middle class also leads to an increasing demand for premium products such as iphones and technology , this technolog requires the extraction of rare earth minerals such as cerium.

Question 8

how much are middle class consumers expected to rise by 2030

Answer 8

the number of middle class consumers are expected to rise from 2billion today to 5 billion by 2030.

Question 9

how do large populations in superpower nations lead to environmental degradation

Answer 9

Large populations contribute to high resource demands as they demand more food and water in order to sustain the population , this can lead to potential water insecurity in areas . Increased food and water consumption can lead to environmental degradation as a result of deforestatsion and land conversion . some emerging nations such as india are are already having water supply issues for example india , indias water situation is likely to be critical by 2030 with 60% of areaa facing water scarcity. furthermore water supply in china could be problematic by 2030 particularly in urban areas .

Question 10

what were the global carbon emissions in 2015

Answer 10

29% China
14% USA
10% EU
7% India
5% Russia
35% Rest of the world

Question 11

how much is energy demand projected to increase Energy demand is a useful example.

Answer 11

Energy demand is a useful example. Projections to 2040 estimate a 40-50% increase compared with 2010. Almost all of this will come from emerging and developing countries, mostly India and China.

Continued economic development in emerging powers is also likely to lead to local environmental degradation. This will translate into health problems, especially in densely populated cities.

Question 12

explain willingness to act in regards to superpowers carbon emissions

Answer 12

Any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail until big emitters agree, because they account for such a large percentage of global emissions.
The USA and China have been reluctant to set emissions reduction targets, whereas the EU has often led in this regard.
EU and US emissions are static or falling (because of greater efficiency and some green policies) but in China emissions are still rising.
The EU has shown itself willing to act to reduce the global warming threat, but this is less true of the USA and even less so of the emerging powers (China, Russia), which tend to prioritise economic development over environmental protection. (kuznets curve)

Question 13

compared to the rest of the world, how significant are the contributions that superpowers make to carbon emissions and global warming

Answer 13

• china and USA have the worst air pollution, the two highest GDP countries have the greatest emissions, relationship
• Africa have very low emissions with south Africa being the main emitter (BRICS nation, emerging)
• any attempt to reduce greenhouse gas emissions will fail until the big emitters agree as they account for such a large percentage of global emissions
• the USA and China have been reluctant to set emission reduction targets whereas the EU lead in climate action, the EU and US emission are static or falling (greater efficiency and some green policies) but china’s emissions are still rising (emerging manufacturing)
• the superpowers are very globalised and so they operate on a global scale resulting in high emissions from transport of goods internationally

Question 14

explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact rare earths in terms of the environment, price and availability

Answer 14

• business of generating earth elements worth US$4 billion a year, collective worth of companies estimated at $5 trillion
• cerium (catalytic convertors) and neodymium (wind turbines and hybrid cars)

environment

• a great deal of water, acid and electricity is used in extraction process to serape the ore from toxins, many of which are carcinogenic
• processing one tonne of rare earths can produce 2000 tonnes of toxic waste, if this mixes with surface water it will have a major environmental impact
• in Baotou (a small village in china), 10 million tonnes of waste water per year is pumped into containment ponds from where it seeps into groundwater and drinking sources

price

• the higher value of these materials have meant the expansion of mining in other parts of the world due to economic benefits
• more basic metals such as copper, tin and platinum at risk of supply shortages and dramatic price changes
• as china’s growth has slowed since 2010, commodity prices have fall back due to lower demand

availability

• in recent years china have restricted the refining and eventual export of the products to keep prices high
• the demand for lithium-based batteries is very high and could be hard to meet in the future
• china has tried to guarantee commodity supplies by buying up companies overseas by investing in africa to supply commodities

Question 15

explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact water in terms of the environment, price and availability

Answer 15

Environment
- the increase in demand of water has meant that people are going towards more environmentally harmful sources of wate, not sustainable

Price

• prices are expected to rise significantly due to the increase in water demand and the increase in water scarcity, china has double the UN definition of water scarcity
• prices are rising due to the increase in the privatisation of water, due to the lack of water available privately owned water supplies are able to push prices up significantly, leading to conflict amongst residents, water crisis in Bolivia

Availability

• In some states of India, groundwater is being used three times faster than it can be replenished, by 2030 60% of areas will be facing water scarcity
• As glaciers melt and river discharge decreases due to their source diminishing, climate change could make the availability of water worse
• many Californian farmers are using more groundwater but the water table is dropping and ground subsidence has been noted
• some emerging powers are already experiencing water supply problems, especially India
• in Beijing total consumption exceeded supply by 70% in 2012 as more residents installed showers and flush toilets

Question 16

explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact oil in terms of the environment, price and availability

Answer 16

Environment

• global oil demand was about 95 million barrels per day in 2015, many environmental impacts, oil leaks, global warming, rise by around 30% by 2030
• there will be more mining, oil drilling and deforestation in the quest to access raw materials

Price

• meeting the demand of oil may lead to price rises and/or supply shortages, supply is quite inelastic
• through the increasing demand it can lead to Saudi Arabia influencing the price of oil by cutting back supply leading to a significant rise in price.

Availability

• predictions that oil will run out by 2061, ‘peak oil’ has certainly passed which has put pressure on more remote areas such as the Arctic Ocean from oil exploitation
• as the middle class increases it will lead to them having higher aspirations to own a car, and therefore the increase in income can cause a proportionately bigger % increase in demand

Question 17

explain how the future growth in middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers will impact staple grains in terms of the environment, price and availability

Answer 17

Environment

• the green revolution in India caused soil degradation and chemical runoff of excess fertilisers resulting in eutrophication
• consumption of rice has increased by 50% in sub-Saharan Africa causing further concerns for the environmental impacts

Price

• with the fall in the amount of staple grains being grown it could lead to prices rising, squeezing the poorest
• prices of wheat, corn, soybeans and rice are already twice what they were in 2000 through the straining soy and grain reserves

Availability

• land once used for staple food grains will be converted to produce meat and dairy products, loss in grains being produced
• cereal consumption in China has gone up by 364% and meat by 99%
• growers are going to have to feed twice as many city inhabitants by 2040

Question 18

other than staple grains what is happening to demand for food and metal industry as middle income earners rise

Answer 18

• demand for meat, dairy products and sugar will also rise as these countries transition to ‘western’ diets
• changing diets in china leading to rise in obesity
• china’s demand for raw materials is such that it accounted for 90% of the global growth in sea traffic in the 21st century
• china’s steel industry is biggest in the world, a steel industry x4 the size of the USAs, they are the biggest producer and consumer of steel in the world

Question 19

other than staple grains what is happening to demand for food and metal industry as middle income earners rise

Answer 19

• demand for meat, dairy products and sugar will also rise as these countries transition to ‘western’ diets
• changing diets in china leading to rise in obesity
• china’s demand for raw materials is such that it accounted for 90% of the global growth in sea traffic in the 21st century
• china’s steel industry is biggest in the world, a steel industry x4 the size of the USAs, they are the biggest producer and consumer of steel in the world

Question 20

give a fact about chinas coal consumption

Answer 20

in 2014 china accounted for half the worlds coal consumption whereas they only have 19% of the worlds population

Question 21

explain why tensions can arise in disputed areas over resources such as the arctic

Answer 21

• multiple borders cross leading to conflict arising as people try to claim land for resources, several national claims to large parts of the arctic
• any attempt to drill for oil and gas in the arctic could become a source of diplomatic conflict
• as resources become increasingly scarce it means that countries can become increasingly violent in terms of gaining resources, e.g. setting ships alight
• the resources in the arctic are worth a lot of money, Russia’s share of the arctic is worth $22 trillion and there is a lot there for the economies in order to develop, the Scandinavian countries that have access to these resources rely on this in developing their weaker economy

Question 22

give a brief explanation of what is happening in the arctic in terms of the tensions arising

Answer 22

it is the deepest oil-filled basin in the world

• multiple borders cross leading to conflict arising as people try to claim land for resources, the US, canada, russia, Norway, Iceland and Denmark all have claims over large areas of the arctic
• holds 90 billion barrels of oil, holds 30% of undiscovered gas and 13% undiscovered oil
• UN convention on the law of the sea (UNCLOS) states that anyone can lay claim to land (seabed and resources) that is 200 nautical miles from its coastline, these zones overlap in the case of the arctic
• the north-west passage water is deeper than the Panama route, they can transport more cargo, cheaper and produce less emissions, countries claim this is an international passage, these maritime trade routes are now becoming highly monopolised
• because of climate change ice is thawing, allowing for new shipping routes, north-west passage allows for shorter distance time, drilling for oil and gas has also increased through the new areas to explore due to the ice melting

Question 23

what are the conflicts/viewpoints of different countries on the arctic

Answer 23

• USA argue that the current allocations are not fair, US’ share of the arctic said to be worth $8 trillion whereas Russia’s is $22 trillion, they rejected to sign the convention on the law of the seas
• since 2002 canada has carried out military exercises in the arctic, Norway expanded its navy, russia carries out arctic bomber patrols and Denmark is creating an arctic military command and response force
• in 2007, a Russian submarine sailed beneath the North Pole and planted a titanium Russian flag on the seabed claiming the territory
• the eu and nine of the biggest fishing nations have signed an agreement to temporarily prohibit fishing in the central arctic for 16 years in order to allow scientific research to examine the area unhindered
• Since 2007, military patrols and activity have increased in the Arctic, as each country shows how interested it is in the area, and willing to defend its claims.

Question 24

what is the economic, environmental and political importance of the arctic

Answer 24

economic

• the resources found or still undiscovered in the arctic are worth trillions, Russia’s share worth $22 trillion
• important for the future of oil, will this importance decrease?
• allows for cheaper transport routes

environmental

• permafrost and glaciers contain lots of greenhouse gases so cant risk releasing these gases due to climate change
• the arctic, a mixture of freshwater and seawater influences ocean currents around the world

political

• the convention on the law of the seas allows for future gain in terms of territory
• massive geopolitical significance, fight for power, obtaining extremely valuable resources that give countries a comparative advantage

Question 25

what is the exclusive economic zone (arctic)

Answer 25

the area of ocean extending 200 nautical miles beyond the coastline (or to the edge of the continental shelf), over which a nation controls the sea and sub-sea resources. The EEZ borders are decided by the UN in the event of a dispute

Question 26

what are the overall problems with the arctic ?

Answer 26

• any attempt to drill oil and gas in the arctic could become a source of diplomatic conflict
• risk of environmental disaster is high due to large oil spills contaminating the largely untouched ecosystem with an indigenous pop
• the attitude of conversation may changes as resources elsewhere become scarce and people look at the arctic

superpowers and emerging nations need physical resources and often they must turn to international trade which is risky due to trading with countries with unstable regimes (Iran) or during conflicts trade routes and supply might be blocked

Question 27

what is a sphere of influence?

Answer 27

a physical region over which a country believes it has economic, military, cultural or political rights. often they extend beyond the borders of a country and represents a region where the country believes it has the right to influence the policies of other countries, e.g. china into africa

Question 28

which global players are involved in the conflict of the south china sea and why?

Answer 28

Brunei + Malaysia- claimed sovereignty over southern parts of the sea and some of Spratly Islands

The Philippines- asserts ownership of the Spratly archipelago and the Scarborough Shoal

Taiwan

Vietnam- claims sovereignty over the Paracel Islands and the Spratly Islands

China’s claims are based on assertation that the disputed islands are Chinese territory because they’re sitting on an extension of its continental shelf. China’s territorial claim clearly overlaps the claims of the other countries which has led to much conflict, resulting in China setting up military bases in the Spratly Islands, including a 3km long aircraft runway on Fiery Cross Reef. Many countries are worried about this development. They will be used for military purposes even though they built it saying it was to help ecosystems.

China say the nine-dash line is legal binding however other players do not believe this, Philippines going to the UN, law of the sea that China signed, surely it is legally binding if they signed it, the USA did not sign it and so they believe they can do whatever what they want

Question 29

give a rough timeline of the events that have taken place in the south china sea

Answer 29

 1947- the republic of china government publishes an eleven-dash line on a map which claims the whole of the SCS including waters adjacent to Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam
 1982- UNCLOS is established, defines the rights and responsibilities of nations in their use of surrounding waters based on exclusive economic zones and continental shelves
 2002- China and the ten ASEAN states reach an agreement on the ASEAN-China Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, in the aim to ease tensions and create guidelines for conflict resolution, first time China accepts a multilateral approach to the issue
 2011- US affirms interest in South China Sea, foreign policy shift towards a focus on Asia
 2012- China detains 21 Vietnamese fishermen in the Paracel Islands, alleging they had been fishing in Chinese waters illegally
 2013- China announces an air defence identification zone in the east china sea claiming the right to monitor and intercept aircraft it finds within the zone
 2016- satellite imagery shows China expanding Tree Island and North Island in the Paracels
 2018- the ASEAN defence ministers sink the world’s first multilateral air guidelines aimed at ensuring safe passage for military aircraft and for ships over the high seas.
 In June 2019 a Philippine fishing boat sunk after it was struck by a Chinese vessel

Question 30

what are the synoptic links linked with the tensions over the south china sea

Answer 30

me increasingly important for international trade as these waters are so essential in connecting the emerging east, the ships passing through these waters are said to carry over US$5 trillion in trade per year, including 25% of all oil carried by sea, nearly 40% of China’s total trade in 2016 transited through the South China Sea
	3.4(b) Environmental problems in developing countries- increased need for resources as we have seen rising consumerism, over-exploitation of resources to meet demand (risk of mass oil spills)
	7.1 Geopolitical power and its characteristics- the need for smart power through gaining access to resources, increased need for achieving access to resource-rich areas as we see the reduction in available resources as a result of climate change and the rising pop and wealth, the USA forming alliances with the Philippines
	7.6(c) Middle-class consumption in emerging superpowers- the increase in middle class leads to increased need for resources and therefore countries adopt a more forceful approach in gaining access to these resources, sinking and setting fire to boats that enter their territory with a want to extract their resources

Question 31

explain the impacts on the people and the environment of the conflicts around the south china sea

Answer 31

impacts on the people
• Violence of their retaliation measures through setting boats alight has led to many conflicts
• The increased pollution in waters due to mass oil spills and pollution from boats has led to contaminated water supplies for developing players around the sea, host of diseases, e.g. cholera and worms
• Allies formed in the south china sea (US and Philippines) lays the foundations for future investments, increase in trade and therefore economic growth and therefore social spending, increases the influence of democratic values
• The disparity within the different players has meant that superpowers such as China dominate over the physical resources, they have the best boats and military compared to Brunei who will most likely be unsuccessful in obtaining resources (lack of hard power)

impacts on the environment
• The expansion of tree island north island in the paracels has led to a disruption in natural ecosystems and scenic beauty
• The scale of extraction of oil in the sea has led to mass oil spills, polluting the waters and killing masses of fish and biodiversity, getting into the food chain
• The implementation of military bases and checks has led to an increase in emissions from boats, disrupting the environment
• Exploitation of natural resources, finite resources

Question 32

explain the impacts on the people and the environment of the conflicts around the western russia/Eastern Europe conflicts

Answer 32

impacts on people

• Loss of autonomy as they are now part of an East-West power struggle.
• The open conflict in Crimea has led to the forced displacement of tens of thousands of people, as well as hundreds of deaths.
• Collapse of tourism industry as Russian military presence makes the area unappealing. This disrupts peoples’ livelihood’s as approximately 70% of tourists were from Ukraine.
• The build up of armed forces in the Baltic States created a country of insecurity and discomfort
• Ethnic divisions formed in Ukraine resulting in many conflicts of interests, killed tens of thousands of people, protests in the streets
• The Ukraine have become the target of a number of cyberattacks, power blackouts

impacts on the environment
• It will reduce the size of Ukraine’s EEZ in the Black Sea. This will prevent them from extracting hydrocarbons from the sea, creating environmental benefits. However, if these fall to Russia, it may exacerbate environmental degradation.
• Its geo-strategic location with large masses of resources (oil) has led to an increase in stress on the physical environment, Russia want to join their oil reserves and exploit it before protection measures come into place

Question 33

explain the conflict occurring in eastern europe

Answer 33

Eastern European countries joining the EU, and moves by Georgia and Ukraine to do so, angered Russia, leading to the Russian invasions of parts of Georgia in 2008 and Ukraine in 2014, as well as a build up of NATO armed forces in the Baltic States

• after the USSR collapsed in 1991 many Eastern European countries felt a desire for independence and to break away from Russian influence, Eastern European states went to join the EU with western areas bordering russia (Belarus) are still influenced by russia in terms of their economy, culture and political systems
• some former soviet states such as the ukraine have looked towards NATO and the EU, they are very against Russia’s use of hard power on the country, cybersecurity (hacking) and disrupting supply chains, huge threat
• NATO want the Ukraine, put in troops. next to border and put in western influences in the country (freedom and democracy), easy invasion, since the Cold War they have wanted to expand east and get countries to join europe and therefore NATO, in 2008 Ukraine asked to join nato
• the 2010 Ukraine election was one candidate routing towards sustaining ties to Russia and the other to join europe, Russian ties are in the east, the leader was very close to Putin, corruption, he got overthrown and interim gov was introduced
• russia entered crimea and put in troops (hard power, tanks) to intimidate and let the people vote, everyone voted to stay in Russian federation
• NATO havent acted on the invasion of crimea, they dont see it as a big deal, they focus on other things

Question 34

why is the Middle East an area of tension?

Answer 34

• the world economy runs on crude oil, the Middle East contains 60% of proven oil reserves so no superpower or emerging power can ignore it
• it is a melting point of different religions, ideologies conflict, sunni (Saudi Arabia, syria, turkey) vs Shia (Iran, Iraq)
• high level of contested land
• since 2011 the rise of the extremist group islamic state in Iraq and syria has created wars, terrorism and a refugee crisis
• their different attitudes to religion, trade, special relations and women differ, this means that relationships between them are not always easy

Question 35

what are the economic and environmental tensions in the middle east

Answer 35

economic

• the wider middle east region has become an essential supplier oil from Libya, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, the rise of ISIS in Iraq since the invasion of allied forces has focused western interests on defending the country’s oil reserves
• turkey sells its water resources

environmental

• past conflicts often resulted in damage to oil installations particularly in Kuwait after the first gulf war in 1991 (when the iraq leader tried to take over Kuwait)
• opposers target their oil resources, destroy them

Question 36

explain the war in syria

Answer 36

• it is a proxy war, Russian-backed military vs US-backed military
  players are:
• the Syrian gov (Russians backing, sending in weapons)
• the opposition (civilians, USA backing, providing weapons), ISIS, Rojava (Kurds in the north)
• rojava want to keep their territory from ISIS, they are an autonomous region with equal gender rights, progressive, they do not pose threats to ISIS, they just want security, Turkey invaded Rojava as they dont like the large Kurdish pop which has formed in their country , rojava bombing them as they want more land , US in 2019 sent in troops to Rojava to help them but then pulled out as they thought their approach was too short-term, straight after turkey invaded rojava, missile strikes, they didn’t like the power that they gained
• the UN nations veto powers are completely divided, russia and china keep on preventing action, NATO want to intervene, chemical bombs being dropped and food cut off by assad
• syria’s geo-strategic location where russia uses it as a trade route to get to europe, they dont want syria to fall to the west
• iraq and Iran have same. ideologies, Saudi Arabia and Qatar provide help for rebel forces