Somalia - Security and Development Flashcards
Security
Freedom from violent conflict. Security is imperative for a state to develop.
Development
Can only occur after domestic security has been established.
Fragile nation
Somalia is the 2nd most fragile nation in world.
No development without security:
Without a solution to the turmoil caused by political insurgencies and terrorist activity, development will continue to be unlikely.
No development without security:
Hunger
• Created by instability
• 2015, over a million IDPs
• mass displacement leads to mass hunger
• long term malnutrition in children
• caused by militant groups tactic of land seizure and food aid abduction.
• therefore increase population density in relatively safer areas of Somaliland and Darod.
• Higher levels of competition for basic shelter, water and food.
• Local struggles = distraction further prohibiting growth
• Population heavily reliant on short term food aid and assistance, esp. Dadaab refugee camps
• Economic situation will not flourish without satisfaction of our primary needs (food, water and security). Shown by Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.
• Until secure population will continue to migrate to UN camps or externally as asylum seekers
No economic development until security is returned to Somalia
No development without security:
Investment
• Investors have no structure to invest through, economic stability
• Vacuum of power after the fall of government in 1992
• Consequent conflicts left a void filled by violence and terrorism
• Al Shabab and Al Qaeda controlling areas through variations of Sharia law or brutal local court systems
• Fall of Mogadishu in 2006, no central control recognised by international community
• Insecurity caused chaotic social structure
• Investment cannot occur through state as government has little control of Puntland (north) and Hawiye (central)
• Investment through factional groups hands risks funding insurrection and terrorism
• Economic development has to be managed by UN intermediaries who dictate where investment should go. Process is slow and limited.
• Somalian’s have extraordinary capacity for economic growth, managed to create one of Africa’s most efficient mobile networks and money transferring system despite this lack of a functioning central bank and legal system
There is vast potential for economic growth, however will remain untapped until security is established.
No development without security:
Security issues
- Negative impact on development
- Conflict damages economic situation
- No security, limited stability within a state
- Decrease investment as unsure of viability of investment.
No development without security:
Fishing
• Potential areas of economic growth = fishing industry
• Abundant fish stocks off horn of Africa, make use of 3,000 km coastline would be cost effected and profitable for both Somalia and investor.
• HOWEVER, due to instability caused by conflict of TFG & ICY, piracy has infiltrated the waters and ports of Somalia
• High chance of harassment, kidnap and extortion of these piracy groups
Therefore without security, fulfilment of Somalia’s economic potential unlikely.
No security without development:
Indicators
- GDP $133 per capita - 2013
- UNDP: 47% unemployed 2012, youth unemployment = 67% (one of highest in the world)
- combination of poverty and unemployment creates conflict and violence.
- 25% to preoccupy their time with actions of war
- development will increase employment and make use of the 11 million strong adult population available to utilise Somalia’s copious natural resources of coal, oil and fish.
- This, in turn, will decrease the number of potential fighters and reduce militant support.
Gender-based violence and discrimination against Somali women is widespread.
No security without development:
Economic development leads to positive circle… Increased employment, leading to increased prosperity and therefore higher tax revenue.
Revenue can be redistributed to increase social welfare and finance health service, increase LE and morbidity rate of population.
Crude mortality rate = 44 Somalia, 12 =UK.
Increased development will provide funding in Somalia to provide increased welfare to improve this figure.
No security without development:
- Increased prosperity and tax revenue will provide the social services necessary to maintain a strong and stable state.
- Allow provision of a police force to deter lawless behaviour and reputable justice system to enforce rule of law.
- Both currently missing. Not helped by lack of a well-equipped government army.
- Somalia would benefit from having such a strong social foundation bought about through economic development.
No security without development:
Historically Somalia fractured by tribalism and ethnical divides.
Eg. Darod, Dir, Izaac and Hawiye are all tribe that have been artificially manufactured into modern day Somalia. To try and implement western liberal democracy is impossible. Allowing such freedom will allow the country to divide even further.
Voting will fuel political violence and give country an unstable political platform.
An autocratic dictator would lead to development. Restoring stability at the expense of the democratic process. However, it would create a government able to deal with the humanitarian crisis in Somalia by uniting or eradicating the tribal divides of society.
Development can be successful:
VIOLENCE CLAN ELDERS TRIBAL HOMOENY BERBERS PIRACY CONSTRUCTION & ECONOMY GDP per capita
- In Northern Somalia, Somaliland, violence has become less prevalent and clan elders have been reconciled.
- Greater tribal homogeny and port of Berbera does not contain piracy.
- There are foreign construction workers and economy is growing.
- GDP per capita in Somaliland est. $347, compared to $133 Somalia. (2013)
- This shows that development sustains peace and vice versa.
Entrepreneurs beating Islamists
- Al-shabaab driven out of most towns –> partly due to Africas union’s peacekeeping force in Somalia, Amisom, which has been battling the Islamist insurgency.
BUT: - much of the credit belong to Somali people and their remarkable resilience and entrepreneurialism.
- as soon as Amisom kick militants out a place, locals move in and start building things.
- unfazed by the fact more than 80% of the currency is counterfeit, they just accept fake shillings as legal tender and improvised an economy.
- Somalia even managed to open a stock exchange in 2015 admist all the fighting
- Less for Africa is that warring factories don’t need to love each other to make peace. They just need to be greedy enough to want to do business.
Conclusion
- In case of Somalia, security breeds development.
- Development provides economic impetus for social change through increased government revenue.
- However, Somalia is in such turmoil that there is no substantial and legitimate government to provide funds to
- No consensual peace agreement until Al-Shabaab and al-Queada are defeated.
- Without removal of these terrorist affiliated groups, international investment will not be substantial enough to kick start Somalia’s possible industries of coal and oil.
- Without security piracy will continue to flourish and fishing stocks will remain untapped.
- Somalia has clung to life thanks to the international involvement of aid agencies and African Union Mission supporting the government..
- Until security is installed development will not occur..
