SESSION 3 - Future of Employment

Question 1

What are the key takeaways of the revolution of the 21st century?

Answer 1

*Tasks performed by computers depend on the skillset and ability of the programmer to write a set of procedures or rules that appropriately direct the technology in each possible contingency
*Routine tasks–task that follow explicit rules that can be accomplished by machines
*Non-routine tasks–tasks that were not yet sufficiently understood to be specified and described in a code
*Both types of tasks can either be cognitive (knowledge work) or manual (physical labour) in nature
*Technological break-throughs happen due to the efforts to turn non-routine tasks into well-defined problems

Question 2

Whats the difference between non-routine cognitive and non-routine manual tasks?

Answer 2

-Non-Routine Cognitive Tasks
*Use of Big Data / Algorithms
Advantages –scalability and absence of human biases
Included areas: Health care,Legal and financial services…

Non-Routine Manual Tasks
*More advanced robots are gaining enhanced sensors and manipulators, allowing them to perform non-routine tasks
*Included areas: Vehicles, Goods production
*Technological advances contribute to declining costs in robotics, making them more affordable
*As robot costs decline and technological capacities expand, robots can be expected to gradually substitute the labour in a wide range of low-wage service occupations

Question 3

Identify potential bottlenecks:

Answer 3

*Perception and Manipulation Tasks
-Robots are unable to math depth and breadth, just like humans do
-Handling of irregular objects
*Creative Intelligence Tasks
-Psychological process underlying creativity is difficult to specify
-Making unfamiliar combinations of familiar ideas
-Encoding human creative values
*Social Intelligence Tasks
-Real-time emotion recognition and ability to respond intelligently
-Common sense info possessed by humans is very difficult to automise
-Negotiation, persuasion, and care

Question 4

What are the key takeaways of the 2 waves of computerization?

Answer 4

*1st Wave of Computerisation
-Workers in transportation and logistics
-Office and administrative supportive workers
-Labour in production occupation *Technical Plateau
-Slow pace of computerisation across medium risk category of management
▪Overcoming this will depend on solving the bottleneck of perception and manipulation tasks

*2nd Wave of Computerisation
oDepends on overcoming the bottlenecks related to creative and social intelligence
▪Generalist occupations requiring knowledge of human heuristics and specialist occupations involving development of ideas and artefacts are least susceptible

Question 5

What are possible limitations?

Answer 5

*Labour saving invention may only be adopted if access to cheap labour is scarce or prices of capital are relatively high
*Regulatory concerns and political activists may slow down computerisation
*Making predictions about technological progress is difficult