risk perception Flashcards
What are Risk Perceptions?
* Risk is the probability that a hazard will give rise to harm
* Risk perception is the — assessment we make
about the — of a specified type of
event/accident happening and how — we are with the —
* Involves — of the – as well as the— of a — outcome
subjective
probability
concerned
consequences
evaluations
probability
consequences
-ve
Risk Perception in Healthcare
* Fundamental responsibility of the healthcare provider
to present information on
a) risks for — illnesses
b) risks associated with —
developing
treatments
risk perception in models of health behaviour - Health Belief Model HBM:
demographic variables as gender ad age leads to
- perceived — , — , — , — ,
- cues to —
- health —
perceived susceptibility , severity , benefits and barriers
cues to action
motivation
( from benefits till motivation is the likelihood of behavior )
Factors influencing Risk Perception:
* Risk perception NOT about — , but about — risk, based on — , under conditions of —
* Influenced by use of “heuristics” = — biases
—- heuristic:
* — frequency of – or easily —
events – e.g., fear of flying versus
fear of travelling in car?
—- heuristic:
if something is similar to things in a certain category, it belongs to that category
- judging a person by who they are friends with
- using a positive mammogram to diagnose breast cancer, while
ignoring that certain age groups have very low probability of breast cancer
— bias avoid taking action – so muchinformation - has potential side effects,
accept risk associated with doing nothing, e.g.,
not vaccinating
Unrealistic —- bias – some
behaviour is more risky for others than for self
(unrealistic optimism)
certanty
judging
probabilities
uncertainty
cognitive biases
availibity
overestimating
vivid or early recalled
representivness
omission
optimism/Optimistic
summary of paper:
Conceptualization of risk is a complex cognitive process.
Individuals tend to overestimate their risk of cancer at baseline.
Immediately after risk information over 80% of people are able to
recall the number.
However, less than half believe that to be their risk, thinking their
risk is higher.
Risk information has either no effect or reduces worry, anxiety and
depression
increasing public risk awareness:
- Specific risk awareness required for
public to respond appropriately
to a health threat WHY???
Chest pain – hospital?
Covid -19 – vaccinate?
MMR (Measles, Mumps, Rubella)
vaccine? – autism? NO, but…??
Stroke? – hospital?
Summary of - Increasing public
risk awareness of stroke - Inability to identify stroke warning signs accurately is an
important cause of delay in seeking medical attention - Comparison study with wave 1 & 2 participants indicated
among other findings - Less than 5% of respondents to
both surveys identified thrombolysis as an emergency
treatment for stroke (3.9% at wave 2 compared to 1.8%
at wave 1). - Although significant improvements were made in several
areas of stroke knowledge and intended response,
awareness of acute stroke interventions was poor and
intended behavioural response was suboptimal.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31008344/ - Increase risk perception
- Findings from this study indicate need for targeted campaigns to improve
population understanding of the reasons underlying the importance of
rapid emergency response to stroke
How to communicate numbers
1. Avoid using — terms only such as low risk – instead provide estimated —
2. — language – misinterpretation of common words like ‘rare” does
not communicate risk effectively and there are cultural implications to
consider
3. Use a — denominator – 40 out od 1000 and 5 out of 1000, rather
than 1 in 25 and 1 in 200.
4. Never present only — outcome - present both positive and negative
outcomes.
5. 97 out of 100 chance of being cured is psychologically more acceptable
than a 3 out of 100 chance of dying
6. Use— not— patients can easily misinterpret
statements ‘three times as many people were cured with approach A
compared to approach B’
7. Use — aids - helps patients from all backgrounds to understand risk
descriptive terms
estimated numbers
standardises language
consistent denominator
-ve outcomes
absolute number
relative risks
visual
communicating risks:
1- absolute risk reduction:
* Pravastatin reduces number who die from 41 to 32 = absolute risk reduction of 41-32=9 people per 1,000 = pravastatin reduces
absolute risk of dying by 0.9%
2- relative risk reduction:
is the —- divided by number who — 9/41 = 22%;
therefore pravastatin reduces
relative risk of dying by 22%
3- number needed to treat NNT:
* NNT is the number of people who need to be treated to save – life. It is the —
of absolute risk :
– NNT = 1/absolute risk reduction
– 1/.009 = 111.11; i.e., 112 people need to be treated to save 1 life
– NNT is always rounded up to nearest whole number
absolute risk reduction / no. of ppl who die without treatment
1 life
inverse
- RELATIVE RISK is the preferred method by – and — companies for advertising — of new treatments
(e.g., 5/100 die if given no treatment, 4/100 die if given
treatment = 20% reduction in mortality rate) (WHY?) - Consensus:
– Public has a right to information
– BUT – not yet consensus that public has a right to get
information in a way that is clear and not —
(i.e. using — instead of relative risk)
media and drug companies
benefit
misleading
NNT
Recommendations for communicating risk:
* Use — statements instead of—-event probabilities
* Avoid – There is a 40% likelihood of insomnia from taking this medication
* Aim for – 4 out of 10 patients taking this
medication will experience insomnia
frequency
single
What do we need to be able to
understand and communicate risk?
* Relative and absolute risk are both needed
* Absolute risk provides the —
– If the absolute risk is —, the chances of it happening are low, so it may not be important
* Relative risk is a key to the importance of a risk factor
– But a small increase in a – risk factor may be more important than a big increase in a – risk
factor
1- Absolute risk absolute risk reduction compares how much your risk – by getting a –
2- Relative risk Relative risk is asking ‘what are my — of getting infected relative to a vaccinated
person?
context
low
increase
small
reduces
vaccines
chances
info:
To calculate the relative risk for
Person B, you must divide the
number of people who became
sick and in the unvaccinated
group, by the number of
people who became sick in the
unvaccinated group. In this
example that 10/10 or 100
percent. Think of it as a control
group.
Communicating risk through advertising
* Factors influencing risk perception = — biases + —
* Most significant cognitive bias in risk perception =—
Effective communication of associated
risks is therefore paramount.
A new study finds that imagining a
personalized disease transmission event
amplifies perceived risk and bolsters risk-
related information seeking in older age.
cognitive biases + emotion
unrealistic optimism
summary:
- Modern society influenced by television , newspapers, radio, and social
media, podcasts and the Dr Google - internet - If a risk is reported then it must be real perception
- Fear, avoidance of an activity - mistrust
- How the risk is reported is not questioned – experts say!
- Understanding numbers - relative risk, absolute risk, NNT is not an effective
way to communicate risk for all people - Visual information – info graphs can be effective
