Risk Mgmt Flashcards
Risk mgmt processes
Initiating - none
Planning - plan risk mgmt, identify risks, perform qualitative analysis, perform quantitative analysis, plan risk responses
Executing - implement risk responses
Monitoring & controlling - monitor risks
Closing - none
Risk mgmt process outputs
Plan risk mgmt - risk mgmt plan
Identify risks - risk register, risk report
Perform qual analysis - none
Perform quan analysis - none
Plan risk responses - none
Implement risk responses - change requests
Monitor risks - none
Risk
1) related to an uncertain event
2) may affect the project for good OR bad
3) individual project risk - threatens an objective
Overall project risk - threatens the success of the project
Risk approaches
Size of project, complexity, inherent project risk, project methodology, importance
Plan risk mgmt
Creating the risk mgmt plan
Risk mgmt plan
Roadmap to the other six risk mgmt processes
Defines what level of risk will be tolerable for the project, how risk will be managed, who will be responsible for risk activities, the amounts of time and resources that will be allotted torsion activities and how risk findings will be communicated
Risk breakdown structure (RBS)
Creating consistent risk categories
Graphical or hierarchical decomposition used to facilitate understanding and organization of risk categories
Identify risks
Evaluates the project to create a list of risks that could potentially impact the project and to understand the nature of those risks
Identify risks tools
Data gathering
Data analysis - root cause analysis, SWOT
Prompt list
Root causes analysis
Ishakawa diagram - fishbone - 5 whys
SWOT
Internal/external, helpful/harmful
Strength, weakness, opportunities, threats
Prompt list
Framework for identifying new risks
Risk register
A list of all identified risks on the project, what the possible reactions are, root causes, and what categories the risk falls into
Identified risk, owners and responses
Risk report
Summary document of risk register, high-level information on identified risks
Perform qualitative analysis
Done to determine which risks are the highest priority on a project
Takes each risk from the risk register an works to analyze the probability it will occur and impact if it does
Perform qualitative analysis tools
Data analysis - risk data quality assessment, risk probability and impact assessment, risk categorization
Data representation - hierarchical charts (bubble chart)
Risk data quality assessment
If the data for risks is not high quality then the decisions you make will have more uncertainty
Data should be objectively evaluated to determine whether or not it is acceptable and accurate of quality
Risk probability and impact assessment / probability and impact matrix
Highest priorities for risk, score (high medium low or a scale)
Assessment of other risk parameters
Urgency, proximity, manageability, controllability, connectivity, strategic impact, propinquity, dormancy, detectability
Urgency
How much time you have to respond to a risk event
Lower is desired
Proximity
How much time you have before the risk impacts project goals
Lower is desired
Dormancy
How much time will pass after the risk has occurred before it is detected
Lower is desired
Manageability
How easily a risk’s impact can be managed
Higher is desired
Controllability
How easily a risk event can be changed
Higher is desired
Detectability
How easily a risk can be notified/recognized
Higher is desired
Connectivity
How risks are connected
Lower is desired
Strategic impact
How likely the risk is to impact the organization’s strategic goals
Lower is desired
Propinquity
Measure of how important the project’s stakeholders perceive this risk to be
Lower is desired
Risk categorization
Can hep you build a big picture of the risks, usually done with a RBS
Perform quantitative analysis
Seeks to assign a projected value to quantify the risks that have been ranked by the perform qualitative analysis process
Usually specified in terms of cost or time
Perform qualitative analysis tools
Representations of uncertainty
Data analysis - simulations (monte Carlo, sensitivity, decision tree, influence diagram)
Representations of uncertainty
Likelihood of a risk occurrence
Probability distributions - beta and triangular
Quantitative analysis simulatio
Monte Carlo analysis
Sensitivity analysis
Decision tree analysis
Influence diagrams
Sensitivity analysis
Tornado diagram
Provides a way to depict the project’s sensitivity to cost or other risk factors
Ranks bars from highest to lowest (looks like a tornado)
Decision tree analysis
Probability and arrive at a dollar amount associated with each risk
Each branches gets an expected monetary value (EMV)
Influence diagram
Entities, influences and possible outcomes
Plan risk response
Ready to create a detailed plan for managing them
Plan risk response tools
Strategies for threats Strategies for opportunities Contingent response strategies Strategies for overall project risk Data analysis - alternatives, cost-benefit analysis
Strategies for threats
Escalate, avoid, transfer, mitigate, accept
Harmful and external
Strategies for threats - escalate
Not a favored choice, should only be used when a risk is outside the PMs authority
Strategies for threats - avoid
Appropriate for working with undesirable risk in some cases
Strategies for threats - transfer
Contractual agreements and insurance
Moved outside the organization
Strategies for threats - mitigate
Make it less, does not eliminate but diminishes
Strategies for threats - accept
Perfectly reasonable whether positive or negative
Passive acceptance - no proactive steps
Active acceptance - may involve contingency plan if it occurs
Strategies for opportunities
Escalate, exploit, share, enhance, accept
Helpful and external
Strategies for opportunities - escalate
Managed at level above PM
Strategies for opportunities - exploit
Trying to remove an uncertainty
Strategies for opportunities - share
Working with another party
Contingent response strategies
Contingency/fallback plan
Project team may make one decision related to risk, but make that decision contingent upon certain conditions
Strategies for overall project risk
Point is to establish your project’s overall posture towards risk, to understand and analyze risk and to plan appropriate action
Alternatives analysis
Alternative ways to deal with risks
Cost-benefit analysis
Response doesn’t cost more than the risk
Implement risk responses
Puts the risk response plan into action
Monitor risks
Looks over the plan and execution and compares them
Takes work performance information and data and compares to plan
Monitor risks tools
Data analysis - technical performance analysis, reserve analysis
Audits
Meetings
