risk assessment Flashcards
The Case of Myles Brandon Sanderson
59 criminal convictions as an adult
Upbringing: physical abuse, instability, neglect
PTSD and ADHD
Since 2017 – fights, threats, assault, gunpoint robbery
Statutory release on 4.5-year sentence
Stabbing spree on James Smith Cree Nation in 2022
◦ 11 people dead, 7 injured
high risk for spousal abuse
medium high risk fir reoffedning
risk factors
upbringing
statutory release
federal offedners who have served 2/3 of a fixed length sentence be released friom prison under superviison at that poiny
The Case of Gypsy Rose Blanchard
Victim of mother with
Munchausen by proxy
Physical, emotional, and medical
abuse
Met boyfriend online and set a
plan to kill her mother
June 10, 2015 – boyfriend
Nicholas Godejohn entered
house and killed mother and fled
with Gypsy
risk factors w gender/ sex??
yes
Risk Assessment
Judgement made about likelihood of events, such as future criminal acts
‘One of the most controversial issues in behavioral science and law’ (Borum,
1996)
Judges and Parole Boards
need this information to
keep the community safe
This information can be used
to justify extreme penalties
The Process of Risk Assessment
Prediction
The probability that a person will
commit future criminal or violent acts
Identifying risk factors that are
related to this likelihood of future
violence
Management
The development of interventions to
manage or reduce the likelihood of
future violence
Identifying what treatments might
reduce the individual’s level of risk
What conditions need to be
implemented to manage the
individual’s risk
Probability Considerations
- Probabilities may change across time
- Risk level reflects an interaction among a person’s
characteristics, background, and possible future
situations
Pretrial
Risk is too
high for bail
Risk is high enough
that a teen should be
tried as an adult
Sentencing /
Type of
Custody
Probation or
imprisonment
Minimum,
medium, or
maximum-
security prison
Release
Statutory
release could
be denied
Risk could be too
high to be
released to
mental health
facility
types of predictions
True Positive: correct prediction, we predicted it would and it did
True Negative: correct prediction, we predicted it wouldn’t and it didn’t
False Positive: incorrect prediction, we predicted it would and it didn’t
False negative: incorrect prediction, we predicted it wouldn’t and it did
The Base Rate Problem
the percentage of people within a given population who commit a
criminal or violent act
Difficult to make predictions when base rates are too low
If trying to make predictions based on low base rates → more false positives
◦ Example: school shootings
It is easier to make predictions within groups with high base rates
◦ Example: incarcerated offenders
Unstructured clinical judgement:
decisions characterized by substantial
amount of professional discretion and lack of guidelines
Mechanical Prediction
predefined rules about what risk factors to consider,
how much information should be collected, how information should be
combined
Actuarial Prediction:
the risk factors used have been selected and combined based on empirical or statistical association with a specific outcome
- what risk factors are actually important and will actually let us know what is going to happen
Risk factor:
measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behavior of
interest, such as violence
Static Risk Factors:
factors that do not fluctuate over time and are not
changed by treatment
◦ Also called historical risk factors
◦ Example: age of first arrest
Dynamic Risk Factors
factors that fluctuate over time and are amenable to
change
◦ Example: antisocial attitude
Structured Professional Judgement:
predetermined list of risk factors that have
been selected from the research and professional literature
Acute Dynamic Risk Factors:
change rapidly within days, hours, or minutes and
often occur just prior to an offense
Static (Historical) Risk
Factors
Past behavior
◦ The most accurate predictor of future behavior
Age of Onset
◦ Antisocial behavior emerging at an earlier age is more
likely to result in chronic and serious patterns of
violent behavior
◦ First act before age 11 → 50% violent behavior in
adulthood
◦ First act between 11 and 13 → 30% violent behavior in
adulthood
◦ First act in adolescence → 10% violent behavior in
adulthood
Childhood History of Maltreatment
Contextual Risk Factors
Aspects of the individual’s current environment that can elevate risk
Also referred to as situational risk factors
Lack of social support
◦ Relationships with siblings and parents play a role in likelihood to offend
◦ Four types of support
◦ Instrumental, emotional, appraisal, information
Access to weapons or victims
Dispositional Risk Factors
Reflect the individual’s traits, tendencies, or style
Examples: age, gender, criminal attitudes, psychopathy
Most evidence suggests that males are higher risk for general offending
◦ Engage in more serious violent acts
Impulsivity: not being able to regulate responses to impulses or thoughts
◦ More impulsive, more likely to engage in crime and violence
unstructured clinical judgement who
psychiatrist or psychologist
they do not follow up
what kind of risk factor is easiest to change
stable dynamic
things like impulse control
static risk ex
age of first crime
history of abuse
what first crime was
never changes
acute dyanmic
mood
drug
change fast
chilhood maltreatment
physical abuse/neglect = predictoe i.e. if they were chronic then commit crimes chronically
sa not a predictor
instrumental support
helping
appraisal support
positive or negative
aid, encourage
youre important to me
info support
guidance, advice,
taxes
bad impulse control as a kid
more likely to commit crimes and reoffend
actuarila vs structured profressonal
actuarial = stats for prediction but doesnt account for further change
sturcture=acturial and unsturcture - use the stats PLUS literature but cliician has final say
