risk assessment

Question 1

The Case of Myles Brandon Sanderson

Answer 1

59 criminal convictions as an adult
Upbringing: physical abuse, instability, neglect
PTSD and ADHD
Since 2017 – fights, threats, assault, gunpoint robbery
Statutory release on 4.5-year sentence
Stabbing spree on James Smith Cree Nation in 2022
◦ 11 people dead, 7 injured

high risk for spousal abuse

medium high risk fir reoffedning

Question 2

risk factors

Answer 2

upbringing

Question 3

statutory release

Answer 3

federal offedners who have served 2/3 of a fixed length sentence be released friom prison under superviison at that poiny

Question 4

The Case of Gypsy Rose Blanchard

Answer 4

Victim of mother with
Munchausen by proxy
Physical, emotional, and medical
abuse
Met boyfriend online and set a
plan to kill her mother
June 10, 2015 – boyfriend
Nicholas Godejohn entered
house and killed mother and fled
with Gypsy

Question 5

risk factors w gender/ sex??

Answer 5

yes

Question 6

Risk Assessment

Answer 6

Judgement made about likelihood of events, such as future criminal acts
‘One of the most controversial issues in behavioral science and law’ (Borum,
1996)
Judges and Parole Boards
need this information to
keep the community safe
This information can be used
to justify extreme penalties

Question 7

The Process of Risk Assessment

Answer 7

Prediction
The probability that a person will
commit future criminal or violent acts
Identifying risk factors that are
related to this likelihood of future
violence

Management
The development of interventions to
manage or reduce the likelihood of
future violence
Identifying what treatments might
reduce the individual’s level of risk
What conditions need to be
implemented to manage the
individual’s risk

Question 8

Probability Considerations

Answer 8

1. Probabilities may change across time
2. Risk level reflects an interaction among a person’s
   characteristics, background, and possible future
   situations

Question 9

Pretrial

Answer 9

Risk is too
high for bail
Risk is high enough
that a teen should be
tried as an adult

Question 10

Sentencing /
Type of
Custody

Answer 10

Probation or
imprisonment
Minimum,
medium, or
maximum-
security prison

Question 11

Release

Answer 11

Statutory
release could
be denied
Risk could be too
high to be
released to
mental health
facility

Question 12

types of predictions

Answer 12

True Positive: correct prediction, we predicted it would and it did

True Negative: correct prediction, we predicted it wouldn’t and it didn’t

False Positive: incorrect prediction, we predicted it would and it didn’t

False negative: incorrect prediction, we predicted it wouldn’t and it did

Question 13

The Base Rate Problem

Answer 13

the percentage of people within a given population who commit a
criminal or violent act
Difficult to make predictions when base rates are too low
If trying to make predictions based on low base rates → more false positives
◦ Example: school shootings
It is easier to make predictions within groups with high base rates
◦ Example: incarcerated offenders

Question 14

Unstructured clinical judgement:

Answer 14

decisions characterized by substantial
amount of professional discretion and lack of guidelines

Question 15

Mechanical Prediction

Answer 15

predefined rules about what risk factors to consider,
how much information should be collected, how information should be
combined

Question 16

Actuarial Prediction:

Answer 16

the risk factors used have been selected and combined based on empirical or statistical association with a specific outcome

• what risk factors are actually important and will actually let us know what is going to happen

Question 17

Risk factor:

Answer 17

measurable feature of an individual that predicts the behavior of
interest, such as violence

Question 18

Static Risk Factors:

Answer 18

factors that do not fluctuate over time and are not
changed by treatment
◦ Also called historical risk factors
◦ Example: age of first arrest

Question 19

Dynamic Risk Factors

Answer 19

factors that fluctuate over time and are amenable to
change
◦ Example: antisocial attitude

Question 20

Structured Professional Judgement:

Answer 20

predetermined list of risk factors that have
been selected from the research and professional literature

Question 21

Acute Dynamic Risk Factors:

Answer 21

change rapidly within days, hours, or minutes and
often occur just prior to an offense

Question 22

Static (Historical) Risk
Factors

Answer 22

Past behavior
◦ The most accurate predictor of future behavior
Age of Onset
◦ Antisocial behavior emerging at an earlier age is more
likely to result in chronic and serious patterns of
violent behavior
◦ First act before age 11 → 50% violent behavior in
adulthood
◦ First act between 11 and 13 → 30% violent behavior in
adulthood
◦ First act in adolescence → 10% violent behavior in
adulthood
Childhood History of Maltreatment

Question 23

Contextual Risk Factors

Answer 23

Aspects of the individual’s current environment that can elevate risk
Also referred to as situational risk factors
Lack of social support
◦ Relationships with siblings and parents play a role in likelihood to offend
◦ Four types of support
◦ Instrumental, emotional, appraisal, information
Access to weapons or victims

Question 24

Dispositional Risk Factors

Answer 24

Reflect the individual’s traits, tendencies, or style
Examples: age, gender, criminal attitudes, psychopathy
Most evidence suggests that males are higher risk for general offending
◦ Engage in more serious violent acts
Impulsivity: not being able to regulate responses to impulses or thoughts
◦ More impulsive, more likely to engage in crime and violence

Question 25

unstructured clinical judgement who

Answer 25

psychiatrist or psychologist

they do not follow up

Question 26

what kind of risk factor is easiest to change

Answer 26

stable dynamic

things like impulse control

Question 27

static risk ex

Answer 27

age of first crime

history of abuse

what first crime was

never changes

Question 28

acute dyanmic

Answer 28

mood

drug

change fast

Question 29

chilhood maltreatment

Answer 29

physical abuse/neglect = predictoe i.e. if they were chronic then commit crimes chronically

sa not a predictor

Question 30

instrumental support

Answer 30

helping

Question 31

appraisal support

Answer 31

positive or negative

aid, encourage

youre important to me

Question 32

info support

Answer 32

guidance, advice,

taxes

Question 33

bad impulse control as a kid

Answer 33

more likely to commit crimes and reoffend

Question 34

actuarila vs structured profressonal

Answer 34

actuarial = stats for prediction but doesnt account for further change

sturcture=acturial and unsturcture - use the stats PLUS literature but cliician has final say