Public opinion polls Flashcards
What is a public opinion poll?
A poll carried out by research organisations using a sample of typical voters
What are public opinion polls used for?
They are mainly used to establish voting intentions, but can also be used to gauge leaders’ popularity and the importance of specific issues in the minds of voters
When did opinion polls begin to become commonplace in the UK?
When Gallup predicted that Labour would win the 1945 general election, much to the surprise of political commentators at the time. Gallup was right and since then polls have been increasingly used as a means of gauging public opinion
Who are Gallup?
An American company who began polling in the USA before WWII
What did opinion polls predict in 2015?
They predicting a dead heat between the two main parties, which would have led to a second hung parliament. This led to speculation about a potential Labour-SNP coalition
Why can the case be made that opinion polls influenced the outcome of the 2015 general election?
- The conservatives began to campaign on the basis of a labour-SNP coalition in an attempt to gain enough votes for an outright victory
- The polls also predicted a slump for the Lib Dems. This may have decreased support as more suppoters decided to tactically defect from the party, which may well have decreased the vote further
How were the opinion polls inaccurate in 2017?
Most showed a conservative lead between 5%-12%, both of which would have led to a comfortable parliamentary majority. In reality, however, the conservatives were barely 2% ahead of labour, a result that led to a hung parliament
Name the only two polling organisations that correctly predicted the outcome in 2017
Survation and YouGov
Make the case for banning opinion polls in the lead up to general elections
- They may influence the way people vote
- They have been proven to be inaccurate so may mislead the public
- Many argue that politicians should not be captive to changing public opinion as expressed in the polls
Make the case against banning opinion polls in the lead up to general elections
- It would infringe upon freedom of expression
- They will become available only for wealthy organisations that can afford them
- They give valuable information about the opinions of the electorate, which can help guide politicians
- The polls would still be published abroad and people would be able to access them online
What is a shy tory?
A conservative who won’t admit to supporting the party
What is the boomerang effect?
Where people see a party leading in the polls and deliberately go out to vote against them
What is an exit poll?
Asks voters how they have voted after leaving the polling station and is released on the night of the election results