Population projections Flashcards

1
Q

Why are local scale population projections difficult?

A
  • hard to assess due to impacts of exogenous and endogenous factors
  • cultural change is slow
  • govt. policy
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2
Q

Why are global scale population projections difficult?

A
  • multiple scenarios
  • uses current base populations from countries (difficult to obtain/subjective)
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3
Q

What are the 3 population projection variants made by the UN?

A

Low, Medium and High

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4
Q

Why of the 3 variants is most likely?

A

Medium

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5
Q

What is the difference between the medium variant and the high/low variants?

A

high: +0.5 global FR
low: -0.5 global FR

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6
Q

What is the constant fertility scenario?

A

projections for world populations if FR were to remain constant

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7
Q

What type of govt is Japan with regards to FRs?

A

pro-natalist

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8
Q

What type of govt was China with regards to FRs?

A

anti-natalist

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9
Q

What is an exogenous factor that can impact populations and make them difficult to predict?

A

migration

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10
Q

How might climate change impact fertility rates?

A
  • poorer health so fewer children
  • change of opinions (in more educated countries)
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11
Q

How might climate change impact life expectancy?

A

reduced due to impacts on health and agriculture

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12
Q

What does the UN predict that Africa’s population is in 2022 and 2100?

A

2022: 1.41 billion
2100: 3.92 billion

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13
Q

What does the UN predict that Asia’s population is in 2022 and in 2100?

A

2022: 4.71 billion
2100: 4.68 billion

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14
Q

Why might the UN’s predictions be bad?

A
  • at regional scale, predictions have been incorrect (eg underestimate in Europe) but have balanced out globally
  • inaccurate base data
  • long term projections are inaccurate
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15
Q

Why might the UN’s predictions be considered as good?

A
  • many are between 1-2% of values all are within 5%
  • valuable as they allow governments to prepare resources and funding
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