P3 - US Elections (systems, finance, incumbency) Flashcards

1
Q

what is the electoral process

A

announcement (invisible primary) - primaries and caucuses - national party conventions - the campaign - election day - electoral college - inauguration

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2
Q

what happens at the invisible primary

A

usually 12-18 months before election day. This is an intraparty campaign - candidates from the same party campaign to establish themselves as viable candidates for their party’s presidential nominee

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3
Q

what happens in the primaries and caucuses

A

these take place at the state level between Feb and June. Candidates from the same party compete against each other in a public vote to decide who will be the party’s presidential candidate

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4
Q

When does the national party convention usually take place

A

July

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5
Q

what happens at the national party convention

A

they confirm each party’s nominee for the president and VP and agree on a party platform

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6
Q

whats the reality of the NPC

A

the presidential candidate is almost decided by the time of the convention due to front-loading primaries (primaries are occurring earlier and earlier in the calendar, so the winner of the primaries is apparent long before the conference)

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7
Q

what is the campaign

A

between July and November the announced candidate from each party campaigns for the presidency

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8
Q

what happens on election day

A

on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. Voters are not directly electing the president. They are nominating the electors from their state to the EC, to whom their state’s ECV will go

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9
Q

when is the electoral college

A

on the Monday following the second Wednesday in December

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10
Q

when is the inauguration

A

20th January of the following year, when the president is sworn in and officially takes on the role

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11
Q

what are the constitutional requirements to be president

A

they have to be at least 35 years old, a natural-born US citizen and a resident of the USA for 14 years

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12
Q

what does the 22nd amendment say

A

the president shall only serve two terms

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13
Q

how many ECVs are there in the EC

A

538

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14
Q

what does the number of ECVs depend on

A

their population and is the same as the number of Senators plus the number of Reps that the state has

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15
Q

which state has the most ECVs

A

California

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16
Q

how many ECVs does California have

A

55

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17
Q

how many states give all their ECVs to the party with the most votes

A

48

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18
Q

which states allocate ECVs by district

A

in Maine and Nebraska

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19
Q

how many ECVs does a candidate need to achieve to become President

A

270

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20
Q

what is a faithless elector

A

an elector who does not cast their ECV for the candidate that their state voted for. This action is illegal in 30 states.

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21
Q

how many faithless electors were there in 2016

A

seven

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22
Q

how many votes did Trump gain in November 2016

A

63 million votes (46%)

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23
Q

how many votes did Clinton gain in November 2016

A

66 million votes (48%)

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24
Q

how many states did Trump win

A

30, worth 306 ECVs

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25
Q

how many states did Clinton win

A

20, worth 232 ECVs

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26
Q

when has the president won with fewer votes than the loser of the election

A

2000 Al Gore lost to GWB

2016 Clinton lost to Trump

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27
Q

what are the advantages of the invisible primary

A
  • identifies candidates able to find enough support/money
  • allows for a range of candidates
  • candidates well scrutinised
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28
Q

what are the disadvantages of the invisible primary

A
  • those able to raise the most money are not necessarily the best candidate
  • the length of the process can cause apathy
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29
Q

what are the advantages of the primaries and caucuses

A
  • maintains federalism
  • allows intraparty choice
  • caucuses allow for genuine party involvement
  • more participation in ‘open’ primaries and caucuses
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30
Q

what are the disadvantages of the primaries and caucuses

A
  • open primaries and caucuses can be ‘sabotaged’
  • low turnout in both, but especially caucuses
  • calendar affects the importance of a primary, which had led to front-loading
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31
Q

what are the advantages of the national party convention

A
  • formally announce the party candidate
  • engage the party faithful
  • a poll ‘bounce’ (gain in the poll ratings)
  • TV coverage allows for national involvement
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32
Q

what are the disadvantages of the national party convention

A
  • increasingly presidential and VP candidates are already known, as is the party platform
  • TV coverage increasingly reduced to acceptance speeches and little more
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33
Q

what are the advantages of the electoral college

A
  • states with a small population are still important
  • decisive outcome
  • usually, this results in the winner gaining a majority of the popular vote
  • promotes a two-party system
  • it works, largely, as the founding father intended
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34
Q

what are the disadvantages of the electoral college

A
  • complex; and recent problems have caused more apathy
  • the winner may not have a majority of the vote
  • the WTA nature of the state elector means the population is not adequately represented
  • swing states
  • disadvantages third parties
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35
Q

how is name recognition an incumbent advantage

A

they are already well known to voters. While this can be a danger if they have not proved popular in their first term, usually this enables them to gain media attention with greater ease than their opponents

36
Q

how is the idea of a single candidate an incumbent advantage

A

they are usually unchallenged by their own party, or such challenges are minor. In comparison, the opposing party has to go through the gruelling, and public, the primary season in which they expose each other’s weaknesses in an attempt to win nomination. This can destroy unity within the opposing party.

37
Q

how is risk aversion an incumbent advantage

A

American voters can sometimes be seen as unwilling to change. Couple with increased polarisation means that the likelihood of an incumbent being defeated is minimal except in the case of something tangible that affects voters’ lives, such as a failing economy.

38
Q

how is presumed success an incumbent advantage

A

given the history of incumbent success, there is a good degree of belief that the incumbent will be successful regardless of other circumstances.

39
Q

how is campaign experience an incumbent advantage

A

the incumbent candidate has already been through and won, a campaign. They should be more polished and better rehearsed than a competitor.

40
Q

how is government control an incumbent advantage

A

as the head of the government and head of state, the incumbent president is able to undertake vote-winning behaviour in the run-up to the election. E.g. Obama introduced DACA in August 2012, just months before the election.

41
Q

how is fundraising an incumbent advantage

A

the fact that an incumbent president faces so few challengers means they do not have to worry as much about fundraising. That said, the ability of a president to fundraise, as the single candidate of a party, is far greater than his opponents’.

42
Q

what issue did Obama face about polling in 2012

A

it was particularly close, with rarely more than a five-point difference and often less. Romney took the lead after his conventional and arguably had a lead in some swing states

43
Q

what financial issues did Obama face in 2012

A

Romney spent more than he did, as he was raising more than he was

44
Q

what was Obama accused of

A

performing poorly in the first televised debate

45
Q

when did the first billion-dollar presidential election take place

A

2008

46
Q

what was the spending in the 2008 election

A

$8 per vote

47
Q

what happened financially in the 2012 election

A

both candidates raised more than a billion dollars

48
Q

what was the spending in the 2012 election

A

$20 per vote

49
Q

what are 527 groups

A

groups that raise unlimited money for political activities, but not specifically for or against a candidate

50
Q

why are they called 527 groups?

A

they are named after the tax code which exempts them from tax

51
Q

what are PACs

A

political action committees (PACs)

52
Q

what do PACs do

A

raise hard money to elect or defeat a specific candidate

53
Q

what is PAC spending limited to

A

$5,000 per candidate per election

54
Q

what do Super PACs do

A

they raise unlimited money for political activities; they can support or oppose a candidate but cannot organise this with that person’s campaign organisation

55
Q

what was passed in 1974 regarding campaign finance

A

the federal election campaign act

56
Q

what did the 1974 federal election campaign act do

A

placed legal limits on campaign contributions

57
Q

what was passed in 2002 regarding campaign finance

A

the bipartisan campaign reform act (McCain-Feingold reform)

58
Q

what did the 2002 bipartisan campaign reform act do

A

it banned soft money

59
Q

what SC decision passed in 2010

A

citizens united vs FEC

60
Q

what did the ruling in 2010 Citizens United vs FEC di

A

resulted in the creation of Super PACs

61
Q

how did the 2016 election buck the financial trend

A

Clinton raised $1.4 billion to Trump’s $957.6 billion and lost

62
Q

where did Trump benefit in the 2016 election

A

the New York Times calculated that Trump had gained nearly $2 billion of free media over his campaign to Clinton’s $746 million

63
Q

How has the Supreme court made campaign finance reform so hard

A

by interpreting the Constitution in Citizens United v FEC (2010), the court has made it very difficult to constitutionally limit campaign spending

64
Q

how have politicians made campaign finance reform so hard

A

those in a position to make the change are often the ones who have benefitted from the current system in winning their seat

65
Q

how have the loopholes around current legislation made campaign finance reform so hard

A

in addition to Supreme Court rulings, the varying groups and ‘tyres’ of spending are simply tactics to get around spending limits

66
Q

why has the federal election commission made campaign finance reform so hard

A

the commission is continually gridlock and fails to work in a bipartisan manner, meaning it struggles to enforce these spending rules

67
Q

what finance reform was trialled in Seattle

A

a ‘democracy voucher program’ with each voter having four $25 tax-payer funded vouchers to give to candidates

68
Q

what finance reform is intended to make smaller donations more lucrative

A

small donor matching funds

69
Q

what could happen to donor declarations

A

they could be made more timely, rather than every quarter, which means that some figures are not released until after the election

70
Q

what reform could be made to campaign finance limits

A

while this might allow the further influence of the wealthy, it also would allow a greater range of voices

71
Q

what are the reasons for reform

A
  • small states are over-represented
  • third parties are ignored
  • the person who wins might not have a majority of the vote
  • winner takes all states to distort the will of the voters
  • faithless electors
  • the electoral college is outdated
  • swing states are given too much importance
72
Q

what did New York do in 2014

A

they became the 10th state to sign the NPVIC (national popular vote interstate compact)

73
Q

what was the NPVIC (national popular vote interstate compact)

A

this compact is an agreement between these states and the district of Columbia, stating that they will give their 165 ECVs to whichever presidential candidate wins the popular vote nationally.

74
Q

what is the hope of the NPVIC

A

the hope is that this will ensure that the winner of the popular vote will triumph in the electoral college

75
Q

what is the issue with the NPVIC

A

there has been little advancement since 2014 and the states that have signed up are almost solidly democrat,

76
Q

what reform has been supposed for the Electoral College

A

it should be abolished and replaced with a direct, national vote. This would require a constitutional amendment, which can be difficult to achieve

77
Q

what reform has been suggested for the NPVIC

A

it should be expanded, but this would be non-enforceable due to the Constitutional outline of the EC still being a place

78
Q

what reform could be made for district voting

A

apportion electors by district (as Maine and Nebraska do) rather than by the state. This would mean ‘safe states’ would be removed and the focus will be on districts instead.

79
Q

why is reform not necessary for states

A
  • the electoral college retains state power
  • it protects the voice of the small states
  • it ensures that all areas of a state - rural and urban - have a role
80
Q

why is reform necessary for states

A
  • larger states are under-represented
81
Q

why is reform not necessary for states

A
  • the EC arguably is in line with the Constitutional principle of avoiding ‘tyranny of the majority’
  • the two-party system encouraged by the EC usually gives the people a real choice
82
Q

why is reform necessary for states

A

in two of the last five elections, the popular vote has not been respected

83
Q

why is reform not necessary for the president

A

a decisive and accepted outcome is usually the result. Even in 2000, the transition was relatively smooth in the circumstances

84
Q

why is reform necessary for the president

A

it encourages them to pay more attention to only swing states

85
Q

why is reform not necessary for the constitution

A

the EC does work as the Founding Fathers intended, keeping the presidency away from a popular vote

86
Q

why is reform necessary for the constitution

A

it makes the constitution look outdated in the21st century America