P3 - US Elections (systems, finance, incumbency) Flashcards
what is the electoral process
announcement (invisible primary) - primaries and caucuses - national party conventions - the campaign - election day - electoral college - inauguration
what happens at the invisible primary
usually 12-18 months before election day. This is an intraparty campaign - candidates from the same party campaign to establish themselves as viable candidates for their party’s presidential nominee
what happens in the primaries and caucuses
these take place at the state level between Feb and June. Candidates from the same party compete against each other in a public vote to decide who will be the party’s presidential candidate
When does the national party convention usually take place
July
what happens at the national party convention
they confirm each party’s nominee for the president and VP and agree on a party platform
whats the reality of the NPC
the presidential candidate is almost decided by the time of the convention due to front-loading primaries (primaries are occurring earlier and earlier in the calendar, so the winner of the primaries is apparent long before the conference)
what is the campaign
between July and November the announced candidate from each party campaigns for the presidency
what happens on election day
on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November. Voters are not directly electing the president. They are nominating the electors from their state to the EC, to whom their state’s ECV will go
when is the electoral college
on the Monday following the second Wednesday in December
when is the inauguration
20th January of the following year, when the president is sworn in and officially takes on the role
what are the constitutional requirements to be president
they have to be at least 35 years old, a natural-born US citizen and a resident of the USA for 14 years
what does the 22nd amendment say
the president shall only serve two terms
how many ECVs are there in the EC
538
what does the number of ECVs depend on
their population and is the same as the number of Senators plus the number of Reps that the state has
which state has the most ECVs
California
how many ECVs does California have
55
how many states give all their ECVs to the party with the most votes
48
which states allocate ECVs by district
in Maine and Nebraska
how many ECVs does a candidate need to achieve to become President
270
what is a faithless elector
an elector who does not cast their ECV for the candidate that their state voted for. This action is illegal in 30 states.
how many faithless electors were there in 2016
seven
how many votes did Trump gain in November 2016
63 million votes (46%)
how many votes did Clinton gain in November 2016
66 million votes (48%)
how many states did Trump win
30, worth 306 ECVs
how many states did Clinton win
20, worth 232 ECVs
when has the president won with fewer votes than the loser of the election
2000 Al Gore lost to GWB
2016 Clinton lost to Trump
what are the advantages of the invisible primary
- identifies candidates able to find enough support/money
- allows for a range of candidates
- candidates well scrutinised
what are the disadvantages of the invisible primary
- those able to raise the most money are not necessarily the best candidate
- the length of the process can cause apathy
what are the advantages of the primaries and caucuses
- maintains federalism
- allows intraparty choice
- caucuses allow for genuine party involvement
- more participation in ‘open’ primaries and caucuses
what are the disadvantages of the primaries and caucuses
- open primaries and caucuses can be ‘sabotaged’
- low turnout in both, but especially caucuses
- calendar affects the importance of a primary, which had led to front-loading
what are the advantages of the national party convention
- formally announce the party candidate
- engage the party faithful
- a poll ‘bounce’ (gain in the poll ratings)
- TV coverage allows for national involvement
what are the disadvantages of the national party convention
- increasingly presidential and VP candidates are already known, as is the party platform
- TV coverage increasingly reduced to acceptance speeches and little more
what are the advantages of the electoral college
- states with a small population are still important
- decisive outcome
- usually, this results in the winner gaining a majority of the popular vote
- promotes a two-party system
- it works, largely, as the founding father intended
what are the disadvantages of the electoral college
- complex; and recent problems have caused more apathy
- the winner may not have a majority of the vote
- the WTA nature of the state elector means the population is not adequately represented
- swing states
- disadvantages third parties
how is name recognition an incumbent advantage
they are already well known to voters. While this can be a danger if they have not proved popular in their first term, usually this enables them to gain media attention with greater ease than their opponents
how is the idea of a single candidate an incumbent advantage
they are usually unchallenged by their own party, or such challenges are minor. In comparison, the opposing party has to go through the gruelling, and public, the primary season in which they expose each other’s weaknesses in an attempt to win nomination. This can destroy unity within the opposing party.
how is risk aversion an incumbent advantage
American voters can sometimes be seen as unwilling to change. Couple with increased polarisation means that the likelihood of an incumbent being defeated is minimal except in the case of something tangible that affects voters’ lives, such as a failing economy.
how is presumed success an incumbent advantage
given the history of incumbent success, there is a good degree of belief that the incumbent will be successful regardless of other circumstances.
how is campaign experience an incumbent advantage
the incumbent candidate has already been through and won, a campaign. They should be more polished and better rehearsed than a competitor.
how is government control an incumbent advantage
as the head of the government and head of state, the incumbent president is able to undertake vote-winning behaviour in the run-up to the election. E.g. Obama introduced DACA in August 2012, just months before the election.
how is fundraising an incumbent advantage
the fact that an incumbent president faces so few challengers means they do not have to worry as much about fundraising. That said, the ability of a president to fundraise, as the single candidate of a party, is far greater than his opponents’.
what issue did Obama face about polling in 2012
it was particularly close, with rarely more than a five-point difference and often less. Romney took the lead after his conventional and arguably had a lead in some swing states
what financial issues did Obama face in 2012
Romney spent more than he did, as he was raising more than he was
what was Obama accused of
performing poorly in the first televised debate
when did the first billion-dollar presidential election take place
2008
what was the spending in the 2008 election
$8 per vote
what happened financially in the 2012 election
both candidates raised more than a billion dollars
what was the spending in the 2012 election
$20 per vote
what are 527 groups
groups that raise unlimited money for political activities, but not specifically for or against a candidate
why are they called 527 groups?
they are named after the tax code which exempts them from tax
what are PACs
political action committees (PACs)
what do PACs do
raise hard money to elect or defeat a specific candidate
what is PAC spending limited to
$5,000 per candidate per election
what do Super PACs do
they raise unlimited money for political activities; they can support or oppose a candidate but cannot organise this with that person’s campaign organisation
what was passed in 1974 regarding campaign finance
the federal election campaign act
what did the 1974 federal election campaign act do
placed legal limits on campaign contributions
what was passed in 2002 regarding campaign finance
the bipartisan campaign reform act (McCain-Feingold reform)
what did the 2002 bipartisan campaign reform act do
it banned soft money
what SC decision passed in 2010
citizens united vs FEC
what did the ruling in 2010 Citizens United vs FEC di
resulted in the creation of Super PACs
how did the 2016 election buck the financial trend
Clinton raised $1.4 billion to Trump’s $957.6 billion and lost
where did Trump benefit in the 2016 election
the New York Times calculated that Trump had gained nearly $2 billion of free media over his campaign to Clinton’s $746 million
How has the Supreme court made campaign finance reform so hard
by interpreting the Constitution in Citizens United v FEC (2010), the court has made it very difficult to constitutionally limit campaign spending
how have politicians made campaign finance reform so hard
those in a position to make the change are often the ones who have benefitted from the current system in winning their seat
how have the loopholes around current legislation made campaign finance reform so hard
in addition to Supreme Court rulings, the varying groups and ‘tyres’ of spending are simply tactics to get around spending limits
why has the federal election commission made campaign finance reform so hard
the commission is continually gridlock and fails to work in a bipartisan manner, meaning it struggles to enforce these spending rules
what finance reform was trialled in Seattle
a ‘democracy voucher program’ with each voter having four $25 tax-payer funded vouchers to give to candidates
what finance reform is intended to make smaller donations more lucrative
small donor matching funds
what could happen to donor declarations
they could be made more timely, rather than every quarter, which means that some figures are not released until after the election
what reform could be made to campaign finance limits
while this might allow the further influence of the wealthy, it also would allow a greater range of voices
what are the reasons for reform
- small states are over-represented
- third parties are ignored
- the person who wins might not have a majority of the vote
- winner takes all states to distort the will of the voters
- faithless electors
- the electoral college is outdated
- swing states are given too much importance
what did New York do in 2014
they became the 10th state to sign the NPVIC (national popular vote interstate compact)
what was the NPVIC (national popular vote interstate compact)
this compact is an agreement between these states and the district of Columbia, stating that they will give their 165 ECVs to whichever presidential candidate wins the popular vote nationally.
what is the hope of the NPVIC
the hope is that this will ensure that the winner of the popular vote will triumph in the electoral college
what is the issue with the NPVIC
there has been little advancement since 2014 and the states that have signed up are almost solidly democrat,
what reform has been supposed for the Electoral College
it should be abolished and replaced with a direct, national vote. This would require a constitutional amendment, which can be difficult to achieve
what reform has been suggested for the NPVIC
it should be expanded, but this would be non-enforceable due to the Constitutional outline of the EC still being a place
what reform could be made for district voting
apportion electors by district (as Maine and Nebraska do) rather than by the state. This would mean ‘safe states’ would be removed and the focus will be on districts instead.
why is reform not necessary for states
- the electoral college retains state power
- it protects the voice of the small states
- it ensures that all areas of a state - rural and urban - have a role
why is reform necessary for states
- larger states are under-represented
why is reform not necessary for states
- the EC arguably is in line with the Constitutional principle of avoiding ‘tyranny of the majority’
- the two-party system encouraged by the EC usually gives the people a real choice
why is reform necessary for states
in two of the last five elections, the popular vote has not been respected
why is reform not necessary for the president
a decisive and accepted outcome is usually the result. Even in 2000, the transition was relatively smooth in the circumstances
why is reform necessary for the president
it encourages them to pay more attention to only swing states
why is reform not necessary for the constitution
the EC does work as the Founding Fathers intended, keeping the presidency away from a popular vote
why is reform necessary for the constitution
it makes the constitution look outdated in the21st century America
