Odds Flashcards
Bet Size 25% (1/4 pot)
Pot Odds: 5-1
EQ: 17%
BE%: 20%
Bet Size 33% (1/3 pot)
Pot Odds: 4-1
EQ: 20%
BE%: 25%
Bet Size 50% (1/2 pot)
Pot Odds: 3-1
EQ: 25%
BE%: 33%
Bet Size 66% (2/3 pot)
Pot Odds: 2.5-1
EQ: 28%
BE%: 40%
Bet Size 75% (3/4 pot)
Pot Odds: 2.3-1
EQ: 30%
BE%: 43%
Bet Size 100% (pot)
Pot Odds: 2-1
EQ: 33%
BE%: 50%
How do you calculate pot odds?
- Risk/(Risk + Reward)
- b/(2b + 1)
Reward = original pot + bet
How do you calculate BE%?
- Bet/(Bet + Reward)
- b/(b + 1)
Reward = the pot
How do you calculate MDF?
MDF = 1 - Alpha = 1/(b +1)
What is another term for BE%?
Alpha
Pot Sized Raise
(3 * Bet) + Original Pot
Odds: Flop -> Turn
(Outs * 2) + 1% if more than 5 Outs or + 2% if more than 13 Outs
Odds: Turn -> River
(Outs * 2) + 1% if more than 5 Outs or + 2% if more than 13 Outs
Odds: Flop -> River
(Outs * 4) - (Outs - 8) if more than 9 Outs
Flush Draw
9 Outs
4.2-1
19.15%
Straight Draw
8 Outs
4.9-1
17%
Profitable call, x:y ratio form (odds against making your hand)
Hand odds must be lower than pot odds.
Pot odds: 2-1 (pot size bet)
Hand odds: 1.86-1 (flush draw, flop to river)
Good call, 1.86 < 2
Profitable call, percentage form
Hand odds have to be greater than the pot odds.
Pot odds: 33%
Hand odds: 35%
Good call, 35 > 33
Combinatorics
n!/k!(n - k)!
52!/2!(52 - 2)! -> 525150!/(21)(50)! -> 5251/2=1326
Pocket pair
4!/2!(4-2)! -> 4*3/2!=6
Poker matrix
- 169 distinct hands
- 78 suited hands - 78*4=312 combos
- 78 offsuit hands - 78*12=936 combos
- 13 pocket pairs - 13*6=78 combos
Backdoor Flush Draw - BDFD
(Outs / unseen cards)*((Outs -1) / (unseen cards - 1))
(10/47) * (10 - 1)/(47 - 1) = 4.16%
Backdoor Straight Draw - BDSTD
BDSTD on JT9 board is equal to the probability of catching a Q or 8 on the turn for eight more Outs, plus the probability of catching a K or 7 for four more Outs.
Backdoor open ended straight Draw % = (8/47)(8/46)= 2.96%
Backdoor gunshot straight Draw % = (8/47)(4/46)=1.48%
BDSTD % = 2.96% + 1.48% = 4.44%
Ratio to percentage
Add the two numbers in the ratio together. Then divide 100 by that number
4 to 1 odds, so 4 + 1 = 5
100 / 5 = 20%
Percentage to Ratio
Divide 100 by the percentage. Then take 1 away from that number and you will have x to 1
Flush draw: 19.6% (let’s call it 20%)
100 / 20 = 5.
5 - 1 = 4.
So the ratio is 4 to 1.