MIDTERM LEC 2: DECISION MAKING & PROBLEM SOLVING Flashcards
- CONSCIOUS CHOICE
- process of choosing one alternative from among a set of alternative
- made after evaluating different alternatives or solutions for the purpose of achieving a certain result
DECISION
Characteristics of a Good Decision
- BASED ON A COMPLETE INVESTIGATION
- IDENTIFY AND EVALUATE ALTERNATIVES
- SELECT THE BEST SOLUTION
- EFFECTIVE STRATEGY FOR IMPLEMENTATION
STRATEGIC OR TACTICAL
- decisions involving the EXTERNAL
ENVIRONMENT
STRATEGIC
STRATEGIC OR TACTICAL
- decision involving the INTERNAL
STRUCTURE
TACTICAL
ADMINISTRATIVE OR OPERATIONAL
- deals with authority,responsibility, and accountability relationships
ADMINISTRATIVE
ADMINISTRATIVE OR OPERATIONAL
- deals with day-to-day activities
OPERATIONAL
PROGRAMMED OR NON-PROGRAMMED
- STRUCTURED rules, policies,
procedures; recurring
PROGRAMMED
PROGRAMMED OR NON-PROGRAMMED
- UNSTRUCTURED; infrequent
NON - PROGRAMMED
INTUITIVE OR JUDGMENTAL
- hunches, SUBJECTIVE values, and
personal or emotional factors
INTUITIVE
INTUITIVE OR JUDGMENTAL
- OBJECTIVE analysis and rational
procedures
JUDGEMENTAL
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: VISION
- search for long - term cooperation
LEADER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: VISION
- maximize current opportunities
MANAGER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: COMMUNICATION
- tell people WHAT to do; listen to have an affect; listen for understanding
MANAGER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: COMMUNICATION
- telly people WHY we are doing something
LEADER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: QUESTION(S) ASKED
- Why?
LEADER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: QUESTION(S) ASKED
- How? What?
MANAGER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: PLANNING
- an opportunity to excite, educate, prepare for failure
LEADER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: PLANNING
- a path to follow
MANAGER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: POWER
- something to have and use
MANAGER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: POWER
- something to share and use for the goal of the group
LEADER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: PROBLEM-SOLVING STYLE
- something to solve; to fix
MANAGER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: PROBLEM-SOLVING STYLE
- something to learn from, opportunity to growth
LEADER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: PERCEIVED ROLE
- controller or decision maker
MANAGER
LEADER OR MANAGER
CHARACTERISTICS: PERCEIVED ROLE
- integrator; maker of decision makers
LEADER
- can CLOUD the decision making process
HUMAN ELEMENT
- make information KNOWN
DISCLOSURE
Vroom and Yetton’s CONTINUUM OF DECISION STYLES
- You solve the problem or make the decision yourself, using information available to you (AUTOCRATIC)
A. AI
B. AII
C. CI
D. CII
E. GI
F. GII
AI
Vroom and Yetton’s CONTINUUM OF DECISION STYLES
- You solve the problem or make the decision yourself, using information from subordinates. They may or may not be aware of the decision-making process and their role in it. (AUTOCRATIC)
A. AI
B. AII
C. CI
D. CII
E. GI
F. GII
AII
Vroom and Yetton’s CONTINUUM MODEL
- You share the problem with relevant subordinates individually, getting their ideas. Then you make the decision yourself, accepting or rejecting subordinate advice. (CONSULTATIVE)
A. AI
B. AII
C. CI
D. CII
E. GI
F. GII
CI
Vroom and Yetton’s CONTINUUM MODEL
- You share the problem with relevant subordinates at a group meeting, getting their ideas. Then you make the decision yourself, accepting or rejecting subordinate advice. (CONSULTATIVE)
A. AI
B. AII
C. CI
D. CII
E. GI
F. GII
CII
Vroom and Yetton’s CONTINUUM MODEL
- You share the problem with subordinates individually, and together analyze the problem and arrive at a mutual solution.
A. AI
B. AII
C. CI
D. CII
E. GI
F. GII
GI
Vroom and Yetton’s CONTINUUM MODEL
- You share the problem with relevant subordinates at a group meeting and together analyze the problem and arrive at a group decision. You do not try to influence the group, and you are willing to accept and implement what the group recommends
A. AI
B. AII
C. CI
D. CII
E. GI
F. GII
GII
Vroom and Yetton’s CONTINUUM MODEL
- You delegate the problem to a subordinate, providing him with relevant information and giving him sole responsibility for the problem
DI
DECISION MAKING PROCESS
- IDENTIFY THE PROBLEM AND EVALUATE OBJECTIVES
- GATHER FACTS AND EVALUATE INFORMATION
- DEVELOP AND EVALUATE ALTERNATE SOLUTIONS OR OPTIONS
- SELECT THE BEST ALTERNATIVE
- IMPLEMENT SOLUTIONS AND FOLLOW UP CONSEQUENCES
RISK & TRAPS
- Placing DISPROPORTIONATE WEIGHT on first or more superficial information found during information gathering
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
ANCHORING TRAP
RISK & TRAPS
- Tendency to PERPETUATE MISTAKES of the past
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
SUNK - COST TRAP
RISK & TRAPS
- A BIAS toward DOING WHAT YOU’VE ALWAYS DONE despite better alternatives
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
STATUS - QUO TRAP
RISK & TRAPS
- BIAS toward INFORMATION and JUDGEMENT that supports an existing predilection
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
RISK & TRAPS
- MISSTATING the problem, focusing on a symptom
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
FRAMING TRAP
RISK & TRAPS
- OVERESTIMATION of accuracy of
information
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
RISK & TRAPS
- Being OVERCAUTIOUS about the degree of risk
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
PRUDENCE TRAP
RISK & TRAPS
- Placing UNDUE WEIGHT on recent, dramatic experiences
A. ANCHORING TRAP
B. STATUS - QUO TRAP
C. SUNK - COST TRAP
D. CONFIRMING EVIDENCE TRAP
E. FRAMING TRAP
F. OVERCONFIDENCE TRAP
G. PRUDENCE TRAP
H. RECALLABILITY TRAP
RECALLABILITY TRAP
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
- Predictions obtained by deductions based on ASSUMED CONDUCTIONS
A. A PRIORI PROBABILITY
B. EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
C. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
A PRIORI PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
- determined from the RECORDING OF ACTUAL EVENTS over a specific period of time
A. A PRIORI PROBABILITY
B. EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
C. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY ANALYSIS
- based on the KNOWLEDGE and
EXPERIENCE of the decision maker
A. A PRIORI PROBABILITY
B. EMPIRICAL PROBABILITY
C. SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY
DECISION-MAKING TECHNIQUES
- Similar to brainstorming
however in group discussion
there is topic and there will be
someone that keep tracks of the
discussion.
A. GROUP DISCUSSION
B. BRAINSTORMING
C. SYNECTICS
D. NOMINAL METHOD
E. DELPHI METHOD
GROUP DISCUSSION
DECISION-MAKING TECHNIQUES
- Even if the idea is out of topic it
will still be noted. The idea will
be evaluated later.
- the process of suggesting many possible alternatives without evaluation.
A. GROUP DISCUSSION
B. BRAINSTORMING
C. SYNECTICS
D. NOMINAL METHOD
E. DELPHI METHOD
BRAINSTORMING
DECISION-MAKING TECHNIQUES
- Like a group discussion. The
difference is that the individuals in the discussion are with diverse
experience and skills.
- People are chosen to be the
problem solving team
A. GROUP DISCUSSION
B. BRAINSTORMING
C. SYNECTICS
D. NOMINAL METHOD
E. DELPHI METHOD
SYNECTICS
DECISION-MAKING TECHNIQUES
o Highly structured meeting.
o Every individual in the meeting are to write original ideas in private and submit it to the facilitator.
o The facilitator will present the ideas anonymously. The ideas will be voted out by the participants.
A. GROUP DISCUSSION
B. BRAINSTORMING
C. SYNECTICS
D. NOMINAL METHOD
E. DELPHI METHOD
NOMINAL METHOD
DECISION-MAKING TECHNIQUES
o Modified nominal method.
o The ideas are solicited through questionnaires.
o Present to the meeting and voted out by the participants
A. GROUP DISCUSSION
B. BRAINSTORMING
C. SYNECTICS
D. NOMINAL METHOD
E. DELPHI METHOD
DELPHI METHOD