Judgment + Decision-Making

Question 1

Decision-making is _____ amongst ______

Answer 1

choosing, alternatives

Question 2

Properties of a decision include ….

1) ______ alternatives
2) Future _______ / different _____
3) Different ______

Answer 2

Mutually exclusive, consequences, courses of action, values

Question 3

Expected Value is the …..

Answer 3

average cost of winning + average cost of losing

Question 4

St. Petersburg Paradox -> the assumption is the casino has _______

Answer 4

unlimited resources,

Question 5

St. Petersburg Paradox Example: Toss a _____ coin. If tail appears game _____. If heads appears 1st time you get _____, after that for every heads the pot is _____. How much ______ you pay the casino for ______ that game?

Answer 5

fair, ends, 2$, doubled, would/should, entering

Question 6

Expected Utility Theory states most people don’t behave according to a …..

Answer 6

normative model

Question 7

Expected Utility Theory : we need to modify the idea of ______ in order to account for real ______ = ______

Answer 7

expected value, human behavior, Subjective expected utility

Question 8

Subjective Expected Utility is the ______ that an outcome or activity _______ to an individual

Answer 8

value, actually has

Question 9

Subjective Expected Utility Example: a gain of 10$ for a kid is _____, but _____ for an adult

Answer 9

a lot, not

Question 10

Risk Aversion/ Seeking is a _______ approach

Answer 10

descriptive

Question 11

Loss Aversion is a ______ approach

Answer 11

descriptive

Question 12

People are risk _____ in the domain of ______

Answer 12

averse, gains

Question 13

People are risk seeking in the domain of _____

Answer 13

losses

Question 14

risk averse is to ….

Answer 14

go for the sure thing

Question 15

risk seeking is to ….

Answer 15

try not to lose

Question 16

People do not behave …..

Answer 16

normatively

Question 17

A _____ of a given size is more painful than a _____ of the ______ size is pleasurable

Answer 17

loss, gain, same

Question 18

Cumulitive Prospect Theory describes how people make _______ when presented with alternatives that involve ______, _______, and _______.

Answer 18

decisions, risk, probability, uncertainty

Question 19

Cumulative Prospect Theory is a _______ approach

Answer 19

descriptive

Question 20

Heuristic Biases are ______ approaches

Answer 20

prescriptive

Question 21

Heuristics is why some people make ….

Answer 21

judgement errors

Question 22

Representative Heuristic is the _____ probability of something is determined by the extent to which it seems _____ to its ______ and/or seems to ______ the ______ of how it was generated

Answer 22

subjective, similar, parent population, reflect, salient characteristics

Question 23

3 Heuristics include ……

Answer 23

1) Representativeness Heuristic

2) Availability Heuristic

3) Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

Question 24

______ in judgments reveal some heuristics of _______ under ______

Answer 24

Biases, thinking, uncertainty

Question 25

Representativeness Heuristic Biases include …

Answer 25

– The Gambler’s Fallacy

– The Conjunction Fallacy

– Base Rate Neglect

– Ignoring the sample size

Question 26

Gambler’s Fallacy is _____ a sequence as more ______ than another

Answer 26

misjudging, “random”

Question 27

With Gambler’s Fallacy there is a belief that an ______ that hasn’t happened yet is _____.

Answer 27

outcome, “due”

Question 28

Base Rate Neglect is when people are ______ base rates and relying on the ______ heuristic

Answer 28

ignoring, representativeness

Question 29

With Base Rate Neglect, people _____ to consider the overall ______ of something.

Answer 29

fail, likelihood

Question 30

Conjunction Fallacy is the belief that it is more ______ that two events occur ______ then for one event to occur ______.

Answer 30

probable, together, alone

Question 31

Base Rate Neglect is a major problem in …

Answer 31

medical diagnosis

Question 32

Availability Heuristic is classified as

Answer 32

judjment

Question 33

Availability Heuristic is estimating ______ from the ______ with which instances come to ______.

Answer 33

probability, ease, mind

Question 34

With Availability Heuristic the _____ of recall is sometimes a good _____ to ______, but _____ always

Answer 34

ease, clue, probability, not

Question 35

Availability Heuristic: we base ______ estimates on how ______ it is to ______ examples

Answer 35

frequency, easy, retrieve

Question 36

Availability Heuristic: ______ leads to overestimation

Answer 36

familiarity

Question 37

Anchoring & Adjustment Heuristic is driven by ______ that are generally ______, and the initial ______ bias the _______

Answer 37

adjustments, inadequate, anchors, estimate

Question 38

Common argument is that people are biased because they use ______ that often work _____, but sometimes ______.

Answer 38

heuristics, well, do
not

Question 39

Using heuristics is argued to be _____ and ______

Answer 39

fast, “easy”