Heuristics and Biases Flashcards
chance is often viewed as a
self correcting process
which has been proven more effective punishment or reward
punishment
define salience
being particularly noticeable
define arbitrary
based on a random choice or personal whim rather than reason
why are project pre mortems beneficial
many projects fail due to ignoring reservations during the planning phase
what are prospective hindsights
learning to solve the problems before they happen. Generate solutions and possible problems
why is it good to do prelaunch risk analysis in teams
many ideas
feel valued for their intelligence when a problem is suggested that hasn’t been suggested yet
how should teams be encouraged for pre mortems
make them interactive, competitive, most pessimistic outcome wins!
Why are pre mortems uncomfortable
normalising not thinking of success all the time
what are the bad outcomes of post mortems that pre mortems prevents
accountability and blaming
what is passive perception
what everyone sees and has no choice but t
what is active perception
what we choose to see and not see. different for everyone
depends on culture, background, age , gender etc
what stimuli do we choose to look at in active perception
subconsciously we choose info relevant to us
what theory explains active perception and subconsciously paying attention to what is relevant
cocktail party phenomenon
why is novelty used in marketing
slightly confuses consumer as they try to categorise
example of contextual framing
39.99 v 40
which is a shortcut, being rational or our heuristics
Heuristics
in an unstable environment is there more or less rash decision making
more
when a decision maker overestimates how much a sample represents the situation this is called
representativeness
how should managers avoid insensitivity to prior info
by providing lots of info to see the bigger picture, being aware that the info you are receiving may be distorted/biased
explain the idea behind insensitivity to sample size
People have too much confidence in their predictions from small sample sizes that do not represent the entire population
how does the insensitivity to small numbers heuristic relate to business schools
much of business is taught through case studies but this data does not represent the bigger picture as it get biased towards success and failure narratives in the minds of students
what is gamblers fallacy as a heuristic
misconception of chance
what is illusion of validity also known as
overconfidence
explain the availability heuristic
what is at the top of our mind is what we bring to the table
what is confirmation bias
when you have unconsciously made a decision in your head and when going through new info, you sift out the parts that confirm your decision
if something is easy to recall do people think it is more or less probable
more
when everyone in a group agrees with ideas and don’t critique
group think
what is anchoring and adjustment
having a starting point and having the ability to change the lens you look through
when do we adjust and move from our anchor
as raw data comes in
Stuart Mc Arthur’s upside down map of the world explains how …
frames are the way in which people understand realities
what is conjunction fallacy
when it is assumed that specific conditions are more probable than a single general one.
