ETVTvalence factors is most important Flashcards
what is valence
Valence issues are when there isn’t significant disagreement between parties and voters
therefore choose based on which party they think is going to be most effective in government.
Leadership and competence are key to this.
1.yes- leadership
increase in public image
politics has become more personalized
presedentialism since 1979
growth of social media
personalities are important
media focus uk campaigns are increasingly shaped by perceptions of leading figures
leadership is important in 2010 15 and 24
2010 Cameron vs brown
leaders important in winning
swing votes united the party
bj 2019 red wall
poor and unpopular leaders and detrimental
JC 2019
2024 sunak -51% net favorability
touch, smug
starmer -17 you gov
1.No- rational choice and economic voting
more educated electorate
rational choice
voters care more about policy
rise of internet
economic voting
home owners more likely to vote c
renters are more likely to vote labour
2024 40% mortgages rent 40% l
25% owned voted l
issue based voting
2019 Ge
74% leave voted c
49% remain voted L
2.Yes- competence
key factor
1979 L incompetent TU strikes and winter of discontent
5% limit on pay rise
‘labour isn’t working ‘
1997 black Wednesday
recession
from 1992 on L was ahead in polls
2024 partygate vote share down
2019 44% and 2024 24%
truss mini budget increased borrowing
pound plummeted increase mortgage and increased interest rate
yougov 2024 was tactical voting
2.NO- short term issues
manifestos
events
spending on ads and tv interviews and debates
2017 c rise in opinion polls AND l gained as well despite bad press
electorate only pay attention during elections
2017 TM dementia tax reversed in 24 hours
2024 reform went from 10% in opinion polls to 14%
fARAGE became leader and clacton constituency
C bad campaign
worst TO since 19th cent
d day
C candidate placed bets on July election insider info exposed
furthered presumption of corruption and self interest
2024 sunak net favorability and starmer
-51% and -17 you gov
renters are more likely to vote who
2024 40% mortgages rent 40% l
25% owned voted l
labour
issue based voting
2019 Ge stats
74% leave voted c
49% remain voted L
1997 reasons L won
black Wednesday
recession
from 1992 on L was ahead in polls
1979 L incompetent why
TU strikes and winter of discontent
5% limit on pay rise
‘labour isn’t working ‘
2024 partygate vote share down
2019 vs 2024
2019 44% and 2024 24%
2017 TM dementia tax
reversed In 24 hours
2024 reform went from .. in opinion polls to ..
10 to 14 %
worst TO since when for c
19th cent
bets on election scandal
C candidate placed bets on July election insider info exposed
furthered presumption of corruption and self interest
3.against- valence factors vs social factors
Voter Behavior:
Voters often choose parties based on policies rather than factors like leadership or perceived competence (valence factors).
Significant policy differences appeal to different parts of the population, e.g., free tuition fees appeal to younger voters but may deter older voters.
Class and Social Status:
Historically, voting was influenced by class: working-class voters typically supported Labour, while middle/upper-class voters supported the Conservatives.
Labour was associated with trade unions and blue-collar industries, while Conservatives represented white-collar workers, businesspeople, and property owners.
Age as a Key Factor:
Age is now a major determinant of voting behavior, with older voters more likely to vote Conservative and younger voters favoring Labour or left-wing parties like the Greens and SNP.
In 2024, 18-24 year olds:
18% voted Green, 41% Labour, 9% Reform, 8% Conservative.
In comparison, over 60s:
3% voted Green, 24% Labour, 16% Reform, 40% Conservative.
Turnout:
Older voters have a much higher turnout, benefitting the Conservative Party.
In 2017, turnout among 65+ year olds was about 25 percentage points higher than among 18-24 year olds.
3.for- valence vs social factors
Partisan Dealignment:
Since the 1970s and 80s, voter allegiance to political parties has weakened, reducing the influence of social factors like class.
This shift has led to more swing voters who decide based on short-term factors like leadership and competence, rather than long-term party affiliations.
Decline in Party Attachments:
Post-WWII, strong party attachments were shaped by family, class, workplace, and community, but these have diminished over time.
In 2019, Conservatives had a strong showing due to Johnson and Brexit but lost many of those seats in 2024 due to a loss of trust in the party.
Class and Age:
Class has become less important in voting decisions, while age is now a weaker determinant.
Age no longer plays a central role in voters’ identities as class once did.
Valence Factors:
Leadership and perceived competence are now key in determining voting behavior, as voters are more flexible and willing to vote for any of the main parties based on these short-term factors.
