Epidemiology Of Conflict

Question 1

Learning Objectives

Answer 1

• To understand the evolution of war & conflict over time
• To explore the elements of war and conflict
• To look at the epidemiology of modern war and conflict
• To outline wider consequences of modern war & conflict

Question 2

What is the nature of War & Conflict?

Answer 2

• The essence of war/conflict is the implied or actual use of force
• War/conflict is the process of organised and purposeful use of violence of one human group against another.
• War implies an act by a sovereign nation state.
• Conflict often undeclared and intra-state in nature.
• Involves Massacre, genocide & criminal behaviour.
• The question of legality!

Question 3

List some changing natures of conflicts

Answer 3

• Since the 1940, conflict has generally been on a rise
• Conflict peaked at the 1990’s but slowly declined before picking back up in 2016
• Civil conflicts with foreign state intervention is the most common followed by Normal civil conflicts

Question 4

What are the traditional concepts of war?

Answer 4

• Symmetric (conventional) Warfare (Clash of equals)
• Asymmetric Warfare (Clash of unequals) - Government against citizens
• Protracted struggle (Giap/Vietnam, IRA, Basques) – Terrorist war?
• Manoeuvrist Approach (exploiting uncertainty).
• Technocentric Warfare (Standoff, Remote, Drones) – Wars of the future?

Question 5

List one dangerous misconception about wars

Answer 5

• “…Symmetric warfare between massed armies remained the norm until the last quarter of the 20th Century……”
• This is not the case

Question 6

List other concepts of conflict - The spectrum of conflict

Answer 6

• Military Assistance (early Vietnam).
• Humanitarian Operations (Early Balkans).
• Peace Support Operations (Balkans later).
• Low intensity Operations (Britain’s Colonial Wars).
• Mid Intensity Operations (Falklands war – Limited use of available weapons).
• High Intensity Operations (Iraq 2003 - Full and Integrated use of full range of weapons).

Question 7

What other concepts must also be taken into consideration?

Answer 7

• Strategic bombing of cities: Bomber Harris, Curtis Le May
• The targeting of civilians as a matter of Policy: Kurdistan 1920s, Spanish Civil War, WW2, Korea, Vietnam, Gulf Wars.
• Breaking the enemy’s will to continue by destroying his industrial & living space
• UK policy later in WW2.

Question 8

Describe the modern era of war (PART 1)

Answer 8

• Characterised by world wide terrorism on an unprecedented scale.
• The West’s response – expeditionary warfare.
• The emergence of failed & rogue states.
• Emergence of non-state actors (militias, gangs, war lords).
• Intra state conflict rather than war between states.

Question 9

Describe the modern era of war (PART 2)

Answer 9

• Emergence of international terrorist groups – Al-Qaeda & its affiliates.
• Elusive enemy leading to asymmetric war.
• Stand off weapons - incidental or deliberate targeting of civilians.
• “Bombing the enemy back to the stone age”.
• Hatred and rage.
• The elephant in the room is Globalisation

Question 10

List some countries affected by the modern era of war

Answer 10

• Croatia: Ethinic cleansing
• Freetown: Sierra Leone - A failed state
• Afghanistan Kabul
• Iraq
• Sarajevo

Question 11

List the threats to the west about the modern eras of war

Answer 11

• Bombs in Europe & US (& elsewhere).
• Suicide bombings.
• CBRN threats: Dirty bombs, Chemical 7 Biological attacks, Chimeras.
• Cyber warfare.
• Hybrid warfare (Frank Hoffman).

Question 12

What is a possible way forward regarding the modern era of war?

Answer 12

• Use of force should be limited, focused & not be a recruiting sergeant for terrorist groups.
• Force alone will fail.

Question 13

Give an example of the possible way forward

Answer 13

• Northern Ireland as a case example.
• Deal with world poverty.
• Resolve civil conflicts before they inter-nationalise.
• Interdicting terrorist & rogue state funding.
• Focus on recruitment & radicalisation.
• Pressuring totalitarian and authoritarian states.