ECEC - 10 Flashcards
how much has temp on land in the UK and coastal see temp increased by since 1980?
land - 0.8 degrees
coastal sea temo - 0.7
why is it difficult to predict future climate change in the UK?
- due to natural climate variability/ incomplete understanding of Earth / uncertainty of man-made emissions overall effects GHGs
what are 2 natural external influences on the climate?
1) Volcanos changing number of particles in atmosphere
2) Sun’s energy
- were most important drivers before mans influence
what are 2 internal influences on climate?
1) Interactions between ocean and atmosphere e.g. el Niño – warming ocean temps – extreme weather
2) North Atlantic oscillation = wet winter In Europe and cold/dry winters in Canada
multiple climate models allow PDFs what are they?
probability density functions - they take account of both
known modelling uncertainty and
that due to natural variability
why is their greater uncertainty for climate models at smaller scales?
they require more data
what is the predicted future UK climate?
- Winter increase 2-3 degrees overmost of UK
- Summer increase 2.5 – 4 degrees (clearer north-south gradient inchange)
what is the predicted future UK precipitation?
Little change in annual precipitation but winters will be wetter and summer drier
what is the impact of increased temperature on sea levels?
Melting of ice sheets and heating/expansion of sea water causing sea level rise - range of rise between 12-76 cm
what is the effect of climate change on the gulf stream?
North Atlantic Ocean Circulation is predicted to weaken by up to 50% by 2100 - however no model produces an abrupt shutdown
where is it predicted the greatest surface temp warming will take place?
at high northern latitudes
what is the effect of CO2 on the oceans?
increased acidity
if we let GHG emissions continue to rise to RCP 6.5, how much do we expect sea levels to rise by 2100 and what would be the rise if RCP = 2.6?
RCP 6.5 = 0.7m
RCP 2.6 = 0.4m
what is an RCP?
Representative Concentration Pathways - greenhouse gas trajectories - different scenarios of what may happen e.g at different increases in surface temperatures
what are CET and how are they measured?
Central England Temperatures - monitored instrumentally since 1772
