Dispensa- 3- Interdependence and war

Question 1

Different theories on Interdependence
Liberal theory
Realist Theory
Neo Marxist
Trade expectations
\+theory matrix

Answer 1

Liberal theory: States maximize welfare and trade dependance, which increases the opportunity costs of war.
Realist Theory: States maximise security through military power, as trade dependance leads to uncertainty
Neo Marxist: States maximize welfare, but satisfy the need for commercial ties through war
Trade expectations: States maximize security through commercial power, so decisions are based on expected utility from trade after conflict

Question 2

On Bilateral dependence and asymmetries

Answer 2

• Morelli and Sonno: literature overemphasises realism fears; economic data confirms the liberal argument
• Bilateral and multilateral openness lead to opposite opportunity costs for war
• Also, role of asymmetries using a ratio variable BD (Bilateral Dependence) = bilateral openness: i’s imports from j+ j’s imports from i/ multilateral openness: i’s imports+j’s imports

for pairs of countries with similar strategic resources and geography, BD reduces risks of war

    for pairs of countries with asymmetrical resources and geography, BD matters less.

Question 3

Mismatch Theory of War

definition

Answer 3

War between A and B is more likely to happen when there is a higher mismatch between relative military power and relative political-economic power (m-p).

Question 4

Intuition on mismatch

Answer 4

• If two countries sharing a border have no significant resources, or if they have some but at similar distance from border, then the probability of conflict is low, because of the low benefit/cost ratio;
• On the other hand, if only one country in the pair has significant resources, or they have some but at very different distances from the border, then the large benefit/cost ratio for determines likelihood of incentive to attack.

Question 5

Evidence on mismatch

Answer 5

The greater the asymmetry in resources or the asymmetry in distance from border, the greater the probability of war along that border.

Question 6

Adding Interdepedence in the regression eq

Answer 6

Bilateral dependence: BDij= i’s imports from j+ j’s imports from i/ multilateral openness: i’s imports+j’s imports

Question 7

regression eq: Hostility =

Answer 7

One+ Both

+OneDis +BothMinDis +Both*MaxDis