2bis -International Law & Peace

Question 1

International law..

Answer 1

• doesn’t matter (Valentino)

- matters (Fortna)

Question 2

International law doesn’t matter

summed up

Answer 2

Hypotheses down:

• Laws of war (international treaties); no enforcement of contracts
• Domestic Politics (types of regime)
• Identity Conflict (ethnic differences)
• BUT yes to strategic approach: killing civilians is costly but used in longer wars, and increase also opponent’s cost of war

Question 3

International law doesn’t matter variables

Answer 3

• Dependent variable:
  • total number of noncombatants intentionally killed by each side during the war
• Independent variables:
  • Polity IV scores
  • percentage of conflict that the combatant devotes to attrition and/or counterinsurgency strategies
  • dummy for whether the state has signed The Hague or Geneva Convention
  • dummy for ethnic differentiation (i.e 1 if more than 50% of the populations of each states are of different major races or religions)
  • dummy equal 1 if the war aim is conquest or regime change

Question 4

International law matters

Summed up

Answer 4

• Peace lasts longer when the agreements are stronger (implementing more of three measures)
• A counterargument suggests that strong agreements are only associated with durable peace because they are implemented in the easy cases, with willingness to cooperate
• The effects of agreements do not wash out when the baseline prospects for peace are controlled for

Question 5

International law matters

mechanisms

Answer 5

• change incentives to break the ceasefire
• reduce uncertainty about actions and intentions
• prevent accidental violations from triggering another round of fighting

Question 6

International law matters

Types of strategies for longer lasting peace in ceasefire agreements

Answer 6

• Reducing uncertainty
• Altering costs of attack
• Controlling accidents

Question 7

International law matters

- Altering costs of attack

Answer 7

• physically constraining the ability to attack - withdrawal of troops, creation of buffer zones, arms control measures
• signing a formal agreement that invoke international law - losing credibility, aid, military support
• asking third parties to act as referees for duration of peace

Question 8

International law matters

- Reducing uncertainty

Answer 8

• Define clearly compliance and non-compliance
  • Specify the location of the ceasefire line
  • Define explicit rules to identify compliance and non-compliance
  • Verification mechanisms

Question 9

International law matters

- Controlling accidents

Answer 9

• Ongoing negotiations
• Buffer zones
• Army withdrawals
• Arms control
• International monitors (to act as referees)