Decision making theories Flashcards
What are choices based on?
Beliefs - about how the world is and what the outcomes of actions might be
Desires - what the person making the choices likes or wants to happen
both subjective
What does utility theory believe?
That you should make choices that have the highest utility (subjective value) for you
when choosing what to do, outcome has multiple attributes, some are more important than others
What does multi-attribute utility theory believe?
You should weight the attributes according to their importance and combine the values of each object on each attribute to get an overall utility
Choices among actions
Eg. invest in government bonds vs stocks and shares vs savings account
go to a club, stay home
there are possible outcomes following the same action (a night out may be good or bad)
to calculate the average utility of an action, each outcome must be weighted by its probability
The origins of utility theory
Foundations lie in analysis about gambling - people are regarded as rational, interested decisions makers, making choices that maximise expected utility
What does risk aversion mean?
We avoid risks
Risk aversion and money
A sure offer of 50 pounds is preferred to an equal chance of having 0 or 100 pounds
Which is important? absolute value or change in value?
Jack and Jill both have 5 million
Yesterday jack had 1, Jill had 9
which is happier?
utility theory lacks the concept of a reference point, thinks people will be the same but Jill has lost lots
What is the prospect theory?
Outcomes should be defined in terms of gains and losses not in terms of absolute utility levels
What is utility theory an example of?
A normative theory, tries to prescribe what should happen
What does loss aversive mean?
The prospect of losing a certain amount is more aversive (negative) than gaining the same amount - people worry more about a loss of the same size than a gain of the same size
What are consequences of loss aversion?
It can make bargaining difficult - the losers fight harder because they don’t want to lose money
What is the explanation of being loss aversive?
Evolution - severe loss leads to inability to pass on genes
Golf putts
Golfers were 3.6% bette on putts t avoid missing a par vs putts to get a birdie (gain)
tiger woods would’ve earned 1 million more if he had putted 3.6% better when going for birdies
What happens if you continue making risky decisions?
Overtime, will lose out on opportunities because don’t want to lose anything
need to avoid excessive caution
