Decision Making Flashcards
what are the underlying assumptions of the rational decision making model?
-we are robots –> don’t change preferences, don’t have social life, don’t get tired, etc.
- bounded by rationality
- we are continually satisficing
describe how we are bounded by rationality and how it affects the rational decision making model
- incomplete info
- time and cost constraints
- info retention
- human limitations in performing calculations
how does “satisfycing” relate to the rational decision making model?
- search for adequate or acceptable solutions
- don’t optimize in decision-making process
what are the two decision-making models?
- descriptive
2. perscriptive
___: how we actually act, based on observations of individuals and groups, Bounded Rational Model
descriptive decision making
___: how we “should” act, based on particular assumptions and values, Rational Model
prescriptive decision making
why don’t we seek out all info?
- time
- money
- value of info
what are heuristics?
simplifying strategies that help us make good decisions with limited resources and constrained cognitive skills
___ ____: people react to a particular choice differently depending on how it’s presented (ex. as loss or gain)
framing effect
what are the three heuristics?
- availability
- anchoring and adjustment
- representativeness
describe the availability heuristic
judgement of the probability, frequency, or likely causes of an event is influenced by the degree to which info is readily available
- don’t search out all relevant info,
- familiar, recent, vivid info used
- effectiveness of a search set
describe the anchoring and adjustment heuristic
making estimates from an initial value and make insufficient adjustments from that anchor
describe representativeness as a heuristic
tendency to assess the probability or likelihood of an event based on similarity of even to stereotype of a set of occurrences
- we respond to cues or irrelevant info
- ignore statistical info
what are potential strengths of teams?
- increased diversity of views
- more complete info and knowledge
- higher quality of decisions
- increased acceptance of solution
what are weaknesses of teams?
- more time-consuming
- conformity pressures
- discussion can be dominated by 1 or a few members
- decisions suffer from ambiguous responsibility
describe Groupthink
- mode of thinking that people engage in when they’re deeply involved in cohesive in-group
- members strivings for unanimity override their motivation to realistically appraise alternative courses of action
- strong “we-feeling” of solidarity
- independent, critical thinking doesn’t occur
what are remedies for Groupthink? (9)
- assign and encourage the role of critical evaluator in each group member
- leaders avoid stating preferences
- use multiple groups to work on same questions
- protect security but seek outside insight
- invite outside expert’s to challenge views
- assign “Devil’s advocate”
- take time to address how enemies might respond
- break up into small groups to evaluate policy alternatives
- hold second-guess meetings
why does the Groupthink process lead to defective decision-making?
- incomplete survey of alternatives
- incomplete survey of goals
- failure to examine risk of preferred choice
- failure to reappraise alternatives
- failure to work out contingency plans
- selective bias in processing info at hand
what is the Perception of Selves in Groupthink?
- inherent morality of team
- illusion of invulnerability
- illusion of unanimity
what is the Perception of Others in Groupthink?
-stereotypes of other groups
what is the Group Process in Groupthink?
- apply direct pressure on dissenters
- collective rationalization
- self-appointed “mind-guards”
- self-censorship
