Chapter 2/3 (week 2) Flashcards
Why should we not rely on personal experience over research?
Experience has no comparison group and is confounded.
Why is a comparison group important when conducting research?
Because what if there is a better method/solution than the initial one used? Ex: radical mastectomies vs simple mastectomies. Radical were used for years but after a long time simple ones were found to do the exact same thing AND save the lymph nodes and chest wall.
Confound
a potential alternative explanation
What does it mean that experience is confounded?
We can be biased in what we think causes an outcome, but there’s usually confounds that we didn’t eliminate. Ex: a bath at bedtime is what helps my baby sleep better. Could it really be due to your interaction with the baby?
6 points that make research better than personal experience
-comparison groups
-rules out confounds
-dig deeper
-looks at weight of evidence
-theory-data cycle
-publication/peer-review
Although we know research is better than personal experience what is one thing to keep in mind about research?
Scientific findings are not expected to explain 100% of cases. There are always exceptions and research is probabilistic!!!
4 things to consider before trusting authority figures
-source of their ideas?
-did they provide subjective/personal opinion?
-they may be biased
-different authorities may disagree
Halo effect
people who think that since they excel in their field they excel in all fields
consensus/common sense
accepting a conclusion because it’s accepted by the majority of people
famous example of a consensus that’s actually incorrect
“opposites attract” is widely believed but there’s actually research that supports the opposite.
intuition (in research)
believing something based on a gut feeling
what’s the main limitation of relying on intuition?
it’s often biased and can lead to worse decisions
4 non-scientific sources of knowledge
personal experience
authority
intuition
consensus
5 forms of intuition bias
present/present bias
availability heuristic
being swayed by a good story
confirmation bias
bias blind spot
being swayed by a good story
accepting something because it feels natural/”makes sense”
availability heuristic
-incorrectly estimating the frequency of an event by relying on what comes to mind easiest
example of availability heuristic
“im scared of planes because they crash often”
-do they crash often or are plane crashes just reported more frequently than successful plane travel?
-example of overestimation