Chapter 14 - Facing the Future: 6 Visions

Question 1

What are Rumsfeld’s 3 categories of knowns?

Answer 1

1) Known knowns
2) Known Uknowns
3) Unknown unknowns

Question 2

What are 6 potential Models for the Future?

Answer 2

1) Geo-economic Competition
2) Multipolarity
3) Bipoliarity
4) Democratic Peace
5) Clash of Civilizations
6) Global Fracture

Question 3

What are 5 characteristics of a Geo-economic competition?

Answer 3

1) ECON great power competition
2) Economic nationalism
3) Competing blocks
4) National Champions
5) Marxist connections between capitalists and states

Question 4

What 4 trends support the geo-economic competition model?

Answer 4

1) Formation of econ blocs (NAFTA, ASEAN plus Three, AIIB, weak WTO)
2) Competition for natural resources in non-blocs (US intervention in Iraq, CHI FDI and relations in AFR + C.Asia)
3) Business-Govt relations (JAP, EUR, CHI, US after 2008)
4) Regional economic competition (US-CHI)

Question 5

4 Trends undermining the Geo-economic competition Model

Answer 5

1) MNEs
2) Econ relations as positive sum game
3) Open regional blocs (APEC, EU, MNEs)
4) Eroding regionalism (Brexit, Trump reneg NAFTA)

Question 6

What are 4 characteristics of Multipolarity?

Answer 6

1) Military Great Power competition
2) Multiple Great Powers (US; CHI, RUS, INDI, JAP, GER)
3) Flexible Alliances
4) Limited Wars

Question 7

What are 2 trends supporting Multipolarity?

Answer 7

1) Soft balancing (states constraining US politically/diplomatically; SCO)
2) Growing Multipolarity (RUS –> GEO and UKR; CHI –> South China Sea)

Question 8

What are 3 trends undermining multipolarity?

Answer 8

1) Other great powers? (RUS undeveloped econ, CHI growing unequal and old)
2) Flexible alliances?
3) Limited wars in nuclear era?

Question 9

What are 4 characteristics of Bipolarity?

Answer 9

1) 2 dominating states (US-CHI?)
2) foreign policy focused on the other
3) Competing ideologies
4) Alliances to form blocs

Question 10

What are 4 trends supporting the Bipolarity model?

Answer 10

1) US anticipation (the Quad, submarine deal, relations to VIE, INDI)
2) CHI anticipation (TAI, South China sea, BRI, FDI in M.East and AFR)
3) Decoupling
4) Points of tension (soc/pol systems, TAI, E.CHISEA, S.CHISEA)

Question 11

What are 4 trends underminin the Bipolarity model?

Answer 11

1) CHI superpower? (plateauing growth and aging)
2) is hostility a necessity? (interdependence, blocs?)
3) not clear battle of ideology? (capitalism)
4) no nuclear arms race

Question 12

What are 4 characteristics of Democratic Peace?

Answer 12

1) Demo will continue to spread
2) Democracies do not fight (citizens not want, credibility, values)
3) Global Security Community
4) Supported by capitalism and interdependence

Question 13

What are 2 trends support the Democratic Peace?

Answer 13

1) Correlation between peace and democracy (Levy)

2) Democracy is spreading (40% 1987 - 63% 2008)

Question 14

What are 4 trends undermining the Democratic Peace?

Answer 14

1) Will demo spread? (RUS/CHI, illiberal demo, reversible)
2) Peace of demo? (demo led to Hamaz and Hezbollah)
3) Transitioning countries are most war-prone (Mansfield)
4) The theory has not been properly tested (demo is new)

Question 15

What are 4 characteristics of Clash of Civilizations?

Answer 15

1) Driver of conflict is cultural difference (Huntington)
2) Civilizations incl. religion, culture, ethnicity, language
3) Civilizations: Sino-centric, Western, Muslim, Hindu, Orthodox Christian, Sub-Saharan AFR (latin amer?)
4) Civilizations clash over different universal values

Question 16

4 Trends supporting clash of civilizations?

Answer 16

1) YUG: CRO (West); SER (Orth.), BOS (Mus)
2) INDI-PAK: Kashmir (Mus)
3) 9/11: attack on West (capitalism and secular modernity)
4) War on terrorism (islamic fundamentalists)

Question 17

3 Trends undermining Clash of Civilizations?

Answer 17

1) civilizations = coherent political units? (KOR, VIE, CHI? GRE, BUL ROM Orth?)
2) is conflict a necessity? (JAP-US, globalization)
3) Most conflicts between same civ. (Gurr)

Question 18

What are 4 characteristics of Global Fracture?

Answer 18

1) Premodern World (failed and weak states)
2) Modern world (national interests, military competition, power balancing)
3) Post-Modern World (cooperation for peace and prosperity, civilian great powers)
4) Cooper

Question 19

3 Trends supporting the Global Fracture?

Answer 19

1) Pre-Modern: SOM, AFG, SYR
2) Modern: Iran, ISR, RUS
3) Post-Modern: EU

Question 20

3 Trends undermining the Global Fracture

Answer 20

1) Connections across categories (migration, humanitarian intervention, terrorism)
2) Postmodernism as residue of protection from modern states
3) What is role of great powers in model? (sphere of influence?)