Chapter 13-Judgment, Decisions, And Reasoning Pt.1 Flashcards

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1
Q

Decisions

A

The process of making choices between alternatives

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2
Q

Reasoning

A

The process of drawing conclusions

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3
Q

Inductive reasoning

A

Reasoning that is based on observation

Reaching conclusions from evidence

General conclusion based on quality of observation

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4
Q

Strength of argument in inductive reasoning

A

Representativeness of observations

Number of observations

Quality of observations

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5
Q

Inductive reasoning in scientific discoveries and everyday life

A

Hypotheses and general conclusions

In everyday life: make a predictions about what will happen based on observation about what has happened in the past

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6
Q

Heuristics

A

“Rules of thumb” that are likely to provide the correct answer to a problem, but are not foolproof

Availability heuristic

Representativeness heuristic

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7
Q

Availability heuristics

A

Events more easily remembered are judged as being more probable than those less easily remembered

E.g. Words that begin with r or words where r is third letter

E.g. more likely ways to die

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8
Q

Illusory correlations

A

Correlation appears to exist, but either does not exist or is much weaker than assumed

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9
Q

Stereotypes

A

Oversimplified generalizations about a group or class of people often focuses on the negative

Selective attention to the stereotypical behaviours make these behaviours more available

(Type of availability heuristics-they remember this info so they think it’s actually more likely)

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10
Q

Representativeness heuristic

A

The probability that A is a member of class B can be determined by how well the properties of A resembles properties normally associated with class B

  • people use base rate info if it is all that is available
  • people will use descriptive info if available and disregard base rate info

Robert example

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11
Q

Bayesian inference

A

Review this slide

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12
Q

Conjunction rule

A

Probability of two events cannot be higher than the probability of the single constituents (because event of one single event is more probable than combining events)

E.g. Linda bank teller

Bank tellers that are feminist are a subset of bank tellers

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13
Q

Law of large numbers

A

The larger the number of individuals randomly drawn from a population, the representative the resulting group will be of the entire population

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14
Q

The confirmation bias

A

Tendency to conform rather than falsify a hypothesis

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15
Q

The myside bias

A

Tendency for people to generate and evaluate evidence and test their hypotheses in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes

E.g. Lord and coworkers had participants in favour of capital punishment and those against it read the same article

Those in favour found the article convincing
Those against found the article unconvincing

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16
Q

Deductive reasoning

A

Determine whether a conclusion logically follows from premises

17
Q

Syllogism

A
  • Two statements called premises
  • Third statement called conclusion

Valid if conclusion follows logically from its two premises :

Premise 1: All A are B
Premise 2: All B are C
Conclusion: therefore all A are C

18
Q

Categorical syllogism

A

Describe relation between two categories using all, no, or some

19
Q

For viable logic

A

It two premises of a valid syllogism are true, the syllogisms conclusion must be true

(A inside B inside C)

Don’t confuse validity with truth

20
Q

For invalid syllogism

A

-when both premises are true but the conclusion is not

21
Q

How well can people judge validity

A

Evaluation: ask people if conclusion follows logically from premises

Production: ask people to indicate what logically follows from premises

22
Q

Errors in evaluation-belief bias

A

The tendency to think that a syllogism is valid if its conclusions are believable

23
Q

Mental model approach

A

A specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning

  • create a model of a situation based on the premises
  • generate tentative conclusions about model
  • look for exceptions to falsify model
  • determine validity of syllogism
24
Q

Conditional syllogism

A

1st premise: “if p, then q”

P is antecedent, q is consequent

2nd premise:

  • affirming the antecedent (now p)
  • disaffirming the consequent (now not q)
  • affirming the consequent (now q)
  • denying the antecedent (now not p)

Top two valid, bottom two invalid

25
Q

The Watson Four Card Problem

A

Effect of using real world items in a conditional reasoning problem

Determine minimum number of cards to turn over to test: if there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number on the other side

If the conclusion is not true then the first premise is not true

26
Q

Falsification principle

A

To test a rule, you must look for situations that falsify the rule

  • most participants fail to do this
  • when problem is stated in concrete everyday terms, correct responses greatly increase