Chapter 13 Flashcards
Judgement
an assessment of quantity
Reasoning
the process of drawing conclusions
Decision
the process of choosing between alternatives
How are judgements, reasoning, and decisions related?
decisions are based on our judgements and applying our judgements involve different reasoning processes
Inductive reasoning
primary mechanism in making judgements; the process of drawing general conclusions based on specific observations and evidence
Characteristic of conclusions reached from inductive reasoning
conclusions that are probably but not definitely true
3 factors that contribute to the strength of an inductive argument
representativeness of observations to members of its category, number of observations, quality of evidence
What instances do we use inductive reasoning?
anytime we make a prediction about what will happen based on observations about what has happened
Just noticeable difference
the smallest change in quantity that can be noticeable
Weber-Fechner law
the size of the JND is a constant ratio of the reference stimulus (larger reference = larger JND); people are more sensitive to proportional differences than absolute differences
Heuristics
mental shortcuts that allow us to make judgements and decisions quickly or; rules of thumb that are likely to provide the correct answer but aren’t foolproof
What are the big 3 heuristics?
availability, representativeness, affect
Availability heuristic
events that more easily come to mind are judged as being more probable than events that are less easily recalled
Illusory correlations
when a relationship between two events appears to exist but, in reality, there is no relationship between them or it is weaker than assumed to be
Stereotypes
oversimplified generalizations about a group or class of people that often focuses on the negative
Disadvantage of availability heuristic
makes us fear rare events and fail to anticipate more frequent dangers
Representativeness heuristic
the likelihood that an instance is a member of a larger category depends on how well it resembles properties typically associated with the category
Base rate
the relative proportion of different classes in the population; prevalence of an event or characteristic within its population
Conjunction rule
the probability of a conjunction of two events cannot be higher than the probability of single constituents
Law of large numbers
the larger the number of individuals that are randomly drawn from a population, the more representative the resulting group will be of the entire population
Myside bias (Lord)
a type of confirmation bias wherein people evaluate evidence in a way that is biased toward their own opinions and attitudes
Confirmation bias
when people look for information that conforms to their hypothesis and ignore information that refutes it
Backfire effect
an individual’s support for a particular viewpoint could become stronger when faced with corrective facts opposing their viewpoint
Anchoring and adjustment heuristic
people make numerical estimates by using a reference as a starting point and adjusting from there
In what conditions does the anchoring and adjustment heuristic still occur?
occurs even when people know the reference number is false or believe that it was randomly selected, and when people are experts
Deductive reasoning (Aristotle)
determining whether a conclusion logically follows from statements; starts with broad principles to make logical predictions about specific cases
Syllogism
consists of two broad statements or premises followed by a conclusion
When is a syllogism valid?
when the form of the syllogism indicates that its conclusion follows logically from its two premises (not necessarily true)
Belief bias
tendency to think a syllogism is valid if its conclusion is believable and vice versa
When are conclusions in syllogisms definitely true?
only if both premises are definitely true and if the form of syllogism is valid
Mental model approach (Johnson-Laird)
people use mental models to solve deductive reasoning problems
Mental model
a specific situation represented in a person’s mind that can be used to help determine the validity of syllogisms in deductive reasoning
How do people determine validity of syllogisms using a mental model?
they generate a tentative conclusion from the model then modify it until there are no exceptions
Basic principle behind the mental model theory
a conclusion is valid only if it cannot be refuted by any model of the premises
Categorical vs conditional syllogisms
both have two premises and a conclusion but former begins with all, some, or no and latter has the form “if…then”
What is the first premise of all four types of conditional syllogisms?
if p, then q
Modus ponens syllogism
if p, then q - p - therefore, q; “the way that affirms by affirming;” 97% correctly classified this as valid
Modus tollens syllogism
if p, then q - not q - therefore, not p; “the way that denies by denying;” 60% correctly classified this as valid
Invalid types of conditional syllogisms
(a) q - therefore, p; (b) not p - therefore, not q; 40% correctly classified each as invalid
Wason four card problem
tasked to indicate which cards to turn over to test the rule: “if there is a vowel on one side, then there is an even number of the other side”
Falsification principle
to test a rule, it’s necessary to look for situations that would falsify the rule
Permission schema
if a person satisfies a specific condition, then they get to carry out an action
Affect heuristic
inferring quantity from “gut feeling” and emotion instead of logic
Disadvantages of using decision heuristics
they can be subjective and biased (take into account limited information)
Sunk cost fallacy
choosing to push through with or finish something you have already invested time, effort, and resources in
Expected utility theory
if people have all of the relevant information, the will make a rational decision that results in the maximum expected utility
Utility
outcomes that achieve a person’s goals or the overall value for the decision maker
Pros of expected utility theory
provides an objective benchmark to study decision making and is easy to model
Cons of expected utility theory
biased prediction of real world behavior and can’t determine how different individuals define utility
Expected emotions
emotions that people predict they will feel for a particular outcome
Risk aversion
tendency to avoid taking risks
What increases the chance of risk aversion?
the tendency to predict that a particular loss will have a greater impact than a gain of the same size
Why do people overestimate their negative response to loss?
they don’t take into account the coping mechanisms they may use to deal with it
Incidental emotions
emotions that are not caused by having to make a decision; can be related to someone’s general disposition, environment, previous experience
Opt-in procedure
requires a person to take an active step (e.g. signing an organ donor card)
Status quo bias
tendency to do nothing when faced with making a decision
Framing effect
decisions are influenced by how the choices are stated or framed
Effect of gain vs loss framework on decision making
when a decision is framed in terms of gains, people use a risk aversion strategy; when it is framed in terms of losses, people use a risk-taking strategy
Neuroeconomics
combination of research from psychology, neuroscience, economics to study how brain activation is related to decisions that involve potential gains or losses
Prospect theory (Kahneman and Tversky)
people tend to think in terms of gain and loss relative to a reference point, which are represented differently in the mind
How do gain frameworks affect one’s reference point?
they tend to shift the reference point downwards as people tend to choose the choice that is more certain yet smaller in amount rather than take a risk
Endowment effect
over-valuation of one’s current possessions due to ownership
Ultimatum game
a proposer makes an offer as to how a sum of money should be split between them and a responder; the game is over when the responder decides whether to accept the offer or reject it and they both receive nothing
Findings of ultimatum game
people are less likely to get angry and reject low offers with an unfair computer proposer than with an unfair person
What area of the brain is activated when responders make their decisions in the ultimatum game?
right anterior insula, between the parietal and temporal lobes, is more strongly activated when responders reject an offer than when they accept; PFC is activated for both
Role of PFC in decision making
implements decision to reject unfair offers
Hindsight bias
tendency to overestimate our ability to have foreseen an outcome
Dual systems approach (Kahneman)
there are two mental systems: a fast, automatic, intuitive system (system 1) and a slower, more deliberate, thoughtful system (system 2)
Hiatus heuristic
used when deciding on target consumers; “if a customer made a purchase within the last N months, they are active”
Recognition heuristic
recognition indicates a higher value on a particular criterion (e.g. NYC is said to have a larger population than Park city)
Fluency heuristic
an extension of recognition heuristic that helps us decide among self-generated options; choosing the choice that is recognized fastest if all choices are recognized
Take-the-first heuristic
do the first thing that comes to mind
Largest decision heuristic
take the two furthest apart crime scenes and draw a circle through them in order to track criminals; more accurate than other strategies until >9 crimes are involved
When is the heuristic approach better than rational models of decision making?
better under uncertainty and when the parameters are unknown
