Chapter 12 Deductive Reasoning

Question 1

Deductive reasoning

Answer 1

Given some specific premises, judge whether those premises allow you to draw a particular conclusion based on the principles of logic

Question 2

Conditional/propositional reasoning task

Answer 2

Describes the relantionship between conditions;
If… then…; judged as valid or invalid

Question 3

Syllogism

Answer 3

Two statements that we must assume to be true, plus a conclusion

Question 4

Propositional calculus

Answer 4

A system from categorizing the four kinds of reasoning used in analyzing propositions/statements

Question 5

Antecedent

Answer 5

The first proposition or statement; the antecedent is contained in the “if…” part of the sentence

Question 6

Consequent

Answer 6

The proposition contained in the “then…” part of the sentence

Question 7

Affirming the antecedent

Answer 7

Means that you say the if part of the sentence is true the kind of reasoning leads to a valid or correct conclusion

Question 8

The fallacy of affirming the consequent

Answer 8

You say the then part of the sentence is true. This kind of reasoning leads to an invalid conclusion

Question 9

The fallacy of denying the antecedent

Answer 9

You say the if part of the sentence is false. Denying the antecedent also leads to an invalid conclusion

Question 10

Denying the consequent

Answer 10

You say the then part of the sentence is false. This kind of reasoning leads to a current conclusion

Question 11

Dual-process theory

Answer 11

Type 1 processing- fast and automatic
Type 2 processing- slow and controlled

Applies to both deductive reasoning and decision making

Question 12

Difficulties with Linguistically Negative Information

Answer 12

People take longer to evaluate problems that contain linguistically negative information.
People are more likely to make errors on these problems.
causes working memory strain, especially when denying the antecedent or denying the consequent
leads to frequent errors when translating the statement into more accessible, linguistically positive forms

Question 13

Difficulties with Abstract Reasoning Problems

Answer 13

People are more accurate when they solve reasoning problems that use concrete examples rather than abstract, theoretical examples.
diagrams can be helpful
Everyday knowledge may override the principles of logic.

Question 14

Belief-Bias Effect

Answer 14

When people make judgments based on prior beliefs and general knowledge, rather then on the rules of logic

Question 15

Confirmation bias

Answer 15

People tend to try to confirm or support a hypothesis rather than try to disprove it

people are eager to affirm the antecedent, but reluctant to deny the consequent by searching for counterexamples.

Question 16

The Confirmation Bias
Concrete Versions of the Wason Selection Task

Answer 16

replace numbers and letters with concrete situations from everyday life
People perform much better when the task is concrete, familiar, and realistic.
Griggs and Cox (1982)—drinking age example
Performance improved when task implies a social contract.

Question 17

The Confirmation Bias
Applications in Medicine

Answer 17

People seek confirming evidence when self- diagnosing disorders (e.g., insomnia).
Both medical students and psychiatrists tend to select information consistent with their original diagnosis rather than investigate information that might be consistent with another diagnosis.

Question 18

Decision making

Answer 18

assessing and choosing among
several alternatives
no clear-cut rules
no “correct” decision
we often rely on heuristics

Question 19

Kahneman and Tversky

Answer 19

proposed that a small number of heuristics guide human decision making
The same strategies that normally guide us toward the correct decision may sometimes lead us astray.

Question 20

small-sample fallacy

Answer 20

We assume a small small will be representative of the population from which it was selected

Question 21

Representative heuristic

Answer 21

We judge that a sample is likely if it is similar to the population form which this sample was selected for

Question 22

Base rate

Answer 22

How often an item occurs in the population

Question 23

Base for fallacy

Answer 23

Emphasizing the representativeness and understanding of-emphasizing important information about base rates

Question 24

Base Rate and Representativeness
Kahneman and Tversky (1973)

Answer 24

Demonstrated that people rely on representativeness when asked to judge category membership.
even when provided with base-rate information, people tend to ignore it
stereotypes

Question 25

Conjunction rule

Answer 25

The probability of the conjunction of two events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituents

Question 26

Conjunction fallacy

Answer 26

When people judge the probability of the conjunction of the two events to be greater than the probability of a constituent event

Question 27

The Conjunction Fallacy and Representativeness

Answer 27

People tend to judge using representativeness instead of statistical probability.
Students with high SAT scores are actually more likely than other students to demonstrate the conjunction fallacy

Question 28

Summary of Representativeness Heuristic

Answer 28

We use the representativeness heuristic when we make decisions based on whether a sample looks similar in important characteristics to the population from which it is selected.

The representativeness heuristic is so appealing that we tend to ignore other important characteristics that we should consider, such as sample size and base rate.

We also fail to realize that the probability of two events occurring together (e.g., bank teller and feminist) needs to be smaller than the probability of just one of those events (e.g., bank teller).

Question 29

Availability Heuristic

Answer 29

We tend to estimate frequency or probably in terms of how easy it is to think of relevant examples

Question 30

Availability Heuristic only…
Availability Heuristic can…

Answer 30

Only accurate when availability is correlated with true, objective frequency
Can be distorted by recency and familiarity

Question 31

Recency and Availability
Macleod and Campbell

Answer 31

-When people were encouraged to recall pleasant events from their past, they later judge pleasant events to be more likely in their future.
-When people were encouraged to recall unpleasant events, they later judged unpleasant events to be more likely.
-implications for psychotherapy

Question 32

Familiarity and Availability
Brown et al

Answer 32

-Population estimates for various countries
-points of view shown by the media
-people need to use critical thinking and shift to type 2 processing

Question 33

The Recognition Heuristic

Answer 33

When comparing the relative frequency of two categories, if people recognize one category and not the other, they conclude that the recognized category has the higher frequency

This strategy generally leads to an accurate decision

Question 34

Illusory correlation

Answer 34

People believe that two variables are statistically related, even though there is no real evidence for this relationship

Question 35

Social cognition approach

Answer 35

Says that stereotypes can be traced to normal cognitive processes

Question 36

Illusory correlation and availability
Chapman and Chapman

Answer 36

used randomly assigned sexual orientation
to supposed inkblot responses
● showed that student participants formed an
illusory correlation between people’s
reported sexual orientation and their
responses on an inkblot test

Question 37

Summary of availability heuristic

Answer 37

Slides 873-875

Question 38

The Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic

Answer 38

When making an estimate, people begin with a
first approximation (anchor) and then make
adjustments to that number on the basis of
additional information.
People rely too heavily on the anchor, and their
adjustments are too small; over influence of
current hypotheses or beliefs, top-down processing

Question 39

Research on the anchoring and adjustment heuristic

Answer 39

Multiplication example
If the first munger was large, the estimates were higher than if the first number was small
Single-digit numbers anchored the estimates far too low

Question 40

Confidence interval

Answer 40

A range within which we expect a number to fall a certain percentage of the time

Question 41

Estimating Confidence Intervals
Studies find that, in general:

Answer 41

-estimated confidence intervals tend to be too narrow
-anchor may be erroneous and adjustments too small
-people don’t really understand confidence intervals

Question 42

Summary of Anchoring and Adjustment

Answer 42

-When we use the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, we begin by guessing a first approximation or anchor. Then we make adjustments to that anchor.
-This heuristic is generally useful, but we typically fail to make large enough adjustments
-The anchoring and adjustment heuristic also explains our errors when we estimate confidence intervals; we usually supply ranges that are too narrow, given our uncertainty about the anchor

Question 43

Ecological rationality

Answer 43

People create a wide clarity of heuristics to help them make useful adaptive decisions in the real world

Question 44

Default heuristic

Answer 44

If there is a default option, then people will generally be more likely to choose it

Question 45

Framing effect definition

Answer 45

The outcome of a decision can be influenced by:
-the background context of the choice
-the way in which a question is worded

Question 46

The wording of a question and the framing effect

Answer 46

People are distracted by surface structure of
the questions.
The exact wording of a question can have a
major effect on the answers
Tversky and Kahneman

Question 47

Prospect theory

Answer 47

When dealing with possible gains, people tend to avoid risks
When dealing with possible losses, people tend to seek risks

Question 48

Overconfidence

Answer 48

Confidence judgemnts are higher then they should be based on actual performance

Illusory correlation — anchoring and adjustment

Question 49

General studies on overconfidence

Answer 49

occurs in a variety of situations
• own decisions vs. statistically observable
measurements
• variety of personal skills
• individual differences
• cross-cultural differences

Question 50

Crystal-ball technique

Answer 50

Has a decision maker imagine a complete accurate crystal ball indicates that your hypothesis is incorrect

Question 51

My-side bias

Answer 51

Overconfidence that one’s own view is correct
in a confrontational situation; often results in
conflict; cannot even consider the possibility
that their opponent’s position may be at least
partially correct

Question 52

Planning fallacy

Answer 52

People tend to underestimate the amount of time (or money) required to complete a project
Estimate the task will be relatively easy to complete