Chapter 12 Flashcards
what is thinking?
- going beyond info given
- problem soling
- decision making
- inductive/deductive reasoning
what is deductive reasoning
thinking
general–> specific
- draw logical conclusions based on info supplied to you
what is inductive reasoning
specific –> general
- occurs when we observe specific instances and draw general conclusion
2 components of inductive reasonng
1) specific induction
2) general induction
what is specific induction
- known instances to other specific unknown instances
- used to generate testable predictions
- inferences may be correct or incorrect
when is specific induction useful?
- instances seem similar
- instances are typical
- category is homogeneous
specific induction and hockey example
on TV see very first hockey game, see a lot of violence
- know next time watch there will be violence
- drawing inference, conclusion and predicting game will have a lot of violence
what is general induction
- known instances to ALL members of the category
- induce general rule
inducing general rule in general induction problems
- when infer rules about how things work or may not work in the world
- fail to look for what violates what we assume, need to look for info that contradicts what you believe is true
2 problems of deductive reasoning
syllogisms
conditional reasoning
what is deductive reasoning?
- general to specific
what are syllogisms?
- accept premises as true
(2 statements we must assume to be true, plus conclusion) - refer to quantities (use: “all, none, some”)
what matters in a syllogisms?
- structure
veracity does not matter
example of a syllogism (carlos, bird, fly)
all birds can fly
carlos is a bird
therefore carlos can fly
- made judgements about conclusion
3 ways to judge conclusion using syllogism
valid
invalid
indeterminate
syllogism- when do you use type 1 processing
- when do you use type 2 processing
type 1: automatically say its valid
type 2: re-examine the syllogism, and realize that the strict rules of deductive reasoning require you to answer ‘conclusion is indeterminate’
2 types of syllogism
universal
specific
what is a universal syllogism
includes “all”
ex: all birds can fly
what is a specific syllogism
“some” birds can fly
syllogisms can be 2 things
affirmative and negative
ex: neg- no birds can fly, carlos is a bird, therefore carlos cannot fly (valid)
ex: neg- some birds cannot fly, carlos is a burd, therefore carlos cannot fly (indeterminate)
what is conditional reasoning?
- describes relationship between conditions
- if-then statements
- make an assertion
judge conditional reasoning to be either
valid or invalid
what do you use to represent conditional reasoning
propositional calculus
2 parts to if- then statement
antecedent (P)- “if”
consequent (Q) – “then”
how to use propositional calculus
P–> Q
P
Therefore, Q
4 ways to either affirm/deny the P and Q
- affirm the antecedent (valid)
- deny the antecedent (invalid)
- affirm the consequent (invalid)
- deny the consequent (valid)
this is an apple, therefore this is a fruit
valid
affirm the antecedent
this is not a fruit, therefore this is not an apple
valid
- deny the consequent
this is a fruit, therefore this is an apple
invalid
- affirm the consequent
its saying (if p then q, q therefore p)–> WRONG
this is not an apple, therefore this is not a fruit
invalid
deny the antecedent
saying: if p then q, not p therefore not q
ex: today is monday, therefore I have my cognitive class
valid
affirming the antecedent
I do not have my cognitive class, therefore today is not monday
valid
deny the consequent
I have my cognitive class, therefore today is monday
invalid
affirming the consequent
it could be wednesday
today is not monday, therefore I do not have my cognitive class
invalid
denying the antecedent
what is the saying to solve conditional reasoning questions
affirm the (P)rince
Deny the (Q)ueen
- everything else is wrong
4 factors that influence reasoning
1) negative information
2) belief bias effect
3) illicit conversions
4) concreteness
how does negative info influence reasoning?
- determining if valid or invalid
ex: if today is not friday (P), then staff cannot dress casually (Q)
– the staff cannot fress casually today, therefore today is not friday = affirming the Q (invalid)
– the staff can dress casually, then today is friday = affirming P
(valid)
how does the belief bias influence reasoning?
- tend to validate statements we believe (top down processing gets in way)
- regardless of logic
people with belief bias more likely to have…
low scores on test of flexible thinking
flexible thinkers
- more likely to solve reasoning problems correctly without being distracted by belief-bias effect. Block everyday knowledge
- Tend to carefully inspect reasoning problem, trying to determine whether the logic is faulty
how do illicit conversions influence reasoning?
- assume that P–>Q = Q–>P
(cant be reversed) - confirmation bias (look at things that are true)
what is the test used to test confirmation bias
standard wason selection test
- if card has vowel on one side (P), then it has even number on other side (Q)
- rule: decide which cards need to be flipped
cards E J 6 7
the standard wason selection test with cards - which ones to flip
E J 6 7
- flip E (P) and 7 (~Q)
- wanted to flop 6 to confirm what you believed= dont need to
- flip E to affirm the antecedent
- flip 7 to deny the consequent (check to see if it does not have even # on other side)
how does concreteness influence reasoning?
- better at solving concrete problems (rather than abstract)
example for concreteness
rule: if patron is to drink legally (P), then he or she must be 19 years or older (Q)
task: which cards need to be flipped
Beer, Pop, 28, 16
- flip beer (P) - to affirm the antecedent
- flip 16 (~Q) to deny the consequent
what is decision making
- assess info and choose among 2 types of cognitive processes
What is dual processing theory?
distinguish between 2 types of cognitive processes
type 1 and type 2 processing
1) fast,automatic, require little attention
- Use during: depth perception, recognition of facial expression, automatic stereotyping
2) slow, controlled, required focused attention, more accurate
what are heuristics?
general strategies for approaching a decision that usually helps us… but that can sometimes lead to errors
- reduce difficulty of making decision
- use because they are useful
6 components to decision making
1) representative heuristics
2) availability heuristic
3) simulation heuristic
4) anchoring and adjustment heuristic
5) framing effect
6) Overconfidence
what is the representative heuristic
- used to evaluate the similarity between sample and population
- believe that random looking outcomes are more likely than orderly outcomes
(often pay no attention to sample size)
what is the law of large numbers
representative heuristic
- large sample is more similar to the population than a small sample
representative heuristic represents what fallacy?
small sample fallacy
what is the small sample fallacy
representative heuristic
assumption that a small sample will be representative of the population from which it is selected
- assumption often leads to incorrect decisions
- small sample more likely to reveal in extreme proportion
what is bayes theorem
representative heuristic
- judgements should be based on base rates and likelihood rations
what other fallacy does representative heuristic represent?
base rate fallacy
what is base rate fallacy
representative heuristic
paying too little attention to important information about how often an item occurs in the population
what is base rate?
how often an item occurs in population
what is a conjunction
representative heuristic
a conjunction of events is less likely than either event alone
3rd fallacy that representativeness heuristic leads too
conjunction fallacy
what is the conjunction fallacy
representativeness heuristic
judge probability of the conjunction of 2 events to be greater than the probability of either constituent event
what is the conjunction rule?
probability of the conjunction of 2 events cannot be larger than the probability of either of its constituent events
what is the availability heuristic?
- used when we rely on memory to estimate frequency of how easy it is to think of relevant examples of something
- trouble when estimates of frequency become contaminated by things that influence memory (Availability)
schema of availability heuristic
true frequency–> availability–> estimated frequency
2 things that can contaminated the availability
recency and familiarity
reliance on availability can lead to …
illusory correlations
- “I shouldnt have changed my answer”
what is an illusory correlation
occur when people believe that 2 variables are statistically related, even though there is no actual evidence for their relationship
- seek confirmatory evidence which leads to stereotyping
what is the recognition heuristic?
availability
- Operates when you must compare the relative frequency of 2 categories
- If you recognize one category but not the other, you conclude that the recognized category has the high frequency
If problem is based on judgement about similarity, you are dealing with..
representativeness heuristic
If problem requires you to remember examples you are dealing with …
availability heuristic
what is the stimulation heuristic
- used when we estimate likelihood based on how easy it is to imagine
- regret outcomes that are easier to imagine
e. g near misses with grades (imagine all the things you could’ve done) - “I can totally see it”
what is anchoring and adjustment heuristic?
- base estimates and decisions on “anchors”, making too-small adjustments relative to this anchor
- begin with first approximation, which serves as anchor, then make adjustments to that number based on additional info
problem with anchoring/adjustment?
- people rely too heavily on anchor, and their adjustments are too small
- anchor restricts the search for relevant info in memory, people concentrate search on info relatively close to anchor (when anchor is unrealistic)
what is the confidence interval
anchoring/adjust
- range within which we expect a number to fall a certain percentage of the time
what is the framing effect?
- outcome of decision can be influenced by the way a problem is worded/framed
- influenced by background context
example of framing effect talked about
1) attend play, pay $20 for ticket, you lose the ticket would you pay for another?
- - less likely, now ticket is double and not worth the experience
2) lose 20 (still have 40) would you buy a ticket?
- - more likely to do so, because $20 is irrelevant to ticket)
what is the prospect theory
framing effect
- peoples tendencies to think that possible gains are different from possible losses
When dealing with possible gains (ex: lives saved), people tend to…
avoid risks
When dealing with possible losses (ex: lives lost), people tend to…
seek risks
what is overconfidence
- higher confidence than performance warrants
- confidence judgements are higher than they should be, based on actual performance on task
-
overconfidence leads to … (fallacy)
planning fallacy
what is the planning fallacy
- underestimate the amount of time (and money) needed to complete project
ways to overcome the planning fallacy
- divide project into parts, estimate how long each part will take
- envision each step in process, rehearse components
- think of someone else doing task, visualize how long took them to complete it
method to reduce overconfidence
crystal-ball technique
- asks decision makers to imagine that a completely accurate crystal balls has determined that their favored hypothesis is actually incorrect, the decision makers must therefore search for alternative explanations for the outcome
reasons for overconfidence
- unaware of their knowledge is based on uncertain assumptions (unreliable)
- resist looking for negative evidence (info that doesnt confirm hypothesis)
- difficulty recalling other possible hypothesis
my side bias
overconfidence that your own view is correct in a confrontational situation
- cant consider the possibility that their opponents position may be partially correct
what is hindsight bias?
occurs when an event has happened, and we say that the event has been inevitable, we have actually ‘known it all along’
what is a hindsight?
judgements about events that already happened in the past
what is ecological rationality?
describes how people create a wide variety of heuristics to help themselves make useful, adaptive decisions in the real world
what is default heuristic?
the tendency to chose a default option (the standard option), when one is presented
what are maximizers?
people who have a maximizing decision making style, tend to examine as many options as possible
- leads to choice overload
- tend to experience more depression
what are sacrificers?
people who have a sacrificing decision-making style, they tend to settle for something that is satisfactory
overview on decision making (use of heuristics)
peoples use of heuristics in decision making is usually adaptive, unless the heuristics are applied inappropriately
according to research on confirmation bias
people would rather confirm a hypothesis than disprove it
summary type 1 and type 2 processing, in connection with reasoning and decision making
1) doesnt require much conscious attention
2) slow, need to pay close attention
how could the illusory-correlation effect produce a stereotype?
people pay too much attention to a group of people who have a particular combination of characteristics and they ignore the other three possible combinations of characteristics
if today is tuesday, then my cognition class meets this morning
today is not tuesday, therefore my cognition class does not meet this morning
denying the antecedent
if your name appears on the list outside dr. forests office, you’ll be psychology honours class next semester
julias name does indeed appear on the list, Julia concludes he will be in the class.
Julia is using..
conditional reasoning
supposed that Joe is diplomat who works in country X, he is trying to assess whether Country X poses a threat to the USA
- the diplomat gathers evidence that country X poses a threat, but he does not try to gather evidence that country X not does pose a threat..
This error is called..
confirmation bias
in contrast to representative heuristic, the availability heuristic..
involves recalling some examples of a general category
prof says “a study conduced in 2012 estimated about 11% of the population has psychological disorder at any one time.”
If you were to estimate a confidence interval based on 11% you would most likely..
rely too heavily on an anchor, and not make large enough adjustments to that anchor
accuracy of availability heuristic
- what can distort decisions?
generally accurate
- familiarity and recency can distort
major way tasks requiring decision making differ from tasks requiring deductive reasoning is that the deductive reasoning …
is much more ambiguous
in dual process theory of problem solving (type 1)
type 1 processing requires little conscious attention
if franks car started, then he went to town
franks car did not start, therefore frank did not go to down
what kind of reasoning?
conditional reasoning
if franks car started, then he went to town
franks car did not start, therefore frank did not go to down
error called…
denying the antecedent
all animals that eat burritos have hair
some birds can eat burritos, therefore some birds have hair
is an example of
syllogism
our problem solving ability is biases, as described by (2 things)
belief bias
confirmation bias effects
according to some evolutionary psychologists, people often reason very well in situations that
are necessary for coopertive interactions in a society (e.g cheater)
when people use representativeness heuristic they…
make a judgement based on similarity
when people are presented with salient info (even if its almost entirely worthless), they usually tend to judge the likelihood of something related that that information by …
focusing mainly on presented info and neglecting base-rate info
the beliefs that gay people tend to have psychological problems, that blonds tend to not be intelligent etc. are mainly examples of
illusory correlation
people use anchoring and adjustment processes when they estimate CI, this may lead them to…
give CI that are overly too narrow
research on framing effect reveals that people
are influenced by background context, as well as the way in which a question is worded
people are overconfident in what they could have predicted had they made a judgement before know an actual outcome.
that is they overestimate the accuracy with which they would have predicted an event had they been asked to do so
this is called.
hindsight bias
