Chapter 11. Risk Management Flashcards

1
Q

What are the processes and outputs associated with Risk Management?

A

(In Order)
Plan Risk Management > Risk Management Plan
Identify Risks > Risk Register & Risk Report
Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis > none
Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis > none
Plan Risk Responses > none
Monitor Risks > none
Implement Risk Responses > Change Requests
Monitor Risks > none

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2
Q

What are the primary process groups touched by Risk Management and which processes fall in which group?

A

Planning - Plan Risk Management, Identify Risks, Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis, Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis, and Plan Risk Responses

Executing - Implement Risk Responses

Monitoring & Controlling - Monitor Risks

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3
Q

What are the three characteristics of risk?

A
  1. It is related to an uncertain event.
  2. It may affect the project for good or for bad. Although typically bad, it may well have an upside (a favorite exploit on the test).
  3. Can be an individual project risk or an overall project risk.
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4
Q

What is an individual project risk?

A

An individual project risk threatens an objective.

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5
Q

What is an overall project risk?

A

Over project risks threaten the success of the project.

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6
Q

What are the components to consider in a tailored risk approach?

A
Size of Project
Project Complexity
Inherent Project Risk
Project Methodology
Importance
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7
Q

What is the most important compoment of the Plan Risk Management process, aka its sole output?

A

The Risk Management Plan

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8
Q

Why is Plan Risk Management (and developing the Risk Management Plan) so important?

A

Risks can significantly influence decisions made about scope, time, cost, quality and procurement.

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9
Q

What are the inputs to Plan Risk Management?

A

Project Charter - may contain information about risk tolerance and constraints
Project Management Plan - The stakeholder register will list stakeholders who may be able to give input about risk approaches and who may be affected by risk management decisions
Project Documents
Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational Process Assets

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10
Q

What are the tools used in Plan Risk Management?

A

Expert Judgement
Data Analysis
Meetings

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11
Q

What are the outputs of Plan Risk Management

A

The Risk Management Plan - serves as roadmap to the other 6 risk management processes

Includes level of risk considered tolerable, how risks will be managed, who will be responsible for risk activity, the amounts of time and resource that will be allotted to risk activities, and how risk findings will be communicated.

May also contain info such as standard vocabulary about probability and impact, as they apply to the project.

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12
Q

What is a key part of the Risk Management Plan?

A

Risk Breakdown Structure (RBS), a graphical, hierarchical decomposition used to facilitate understanding and organization.

Example RBS, p 476 showing sample risk categories:
External Risks
Internal Risks > Technology > Intergration Problems with Backend Solutions

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13
Q

Identify Risks is often performed multiple times on a project why?

A

Because you understanding of risk and the nature of the risks will change and evolve as the project progresses.

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14
Q

Why is identifying risks important?

A

It establishes a risk register, which drives the other Risk Management processes.

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15
Q

What are the inputs to Identify Risks?

A

Project Management Plan
Project Documents

Agreements - rewards and penalties in agreements (contracts) represent types of risks

Procurement Documents - portions of the project procured from outside organizations carry their own inherent risks

Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational Process Assets

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16
Q

What are the tools used to Identify Risks?

A
Expert Judgement
Data Gathering - Brainstorming & checklists to make sure the right risks are identified.
Data Analysis:
  - Root Cause Analysis using Ishikawa (fishbone) diagram or the 5 why technique_ to trace risk events back to their underlying factors. See p. 480 for example. 
  - Assumptions & Constraint Analysis
  - SWOT Analysis 
  - Document Analysis
Interpersonal and Team Skills
Prompt Lists
Meetings
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17
Q

What is the 5 why technique?

A

The practice of asking why five times to uncover the root cause of an issue. Looks at the problem and asks, “why.” Takes that response and asks, “why” and continues to do that five times in all. The idea is that by the 5th iteration you should have reached the root cause.

Pioneered at Toyota.

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18
Q

What is SWOT Analysis?

A

A tool used to measure strength (S), weaknesses (W), opportunities (O), and threats (T). each one is plotted in a quadrant. The quandrant where the weaknesses and threats are most concentrated represent the highest negative risks, and where the strengths and opportunities are most concentrated usuall represent the highest positive risks on the project. See p. 481 for example.

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19
Q

What are prompt lists?

A

A list used by the project team to help facilitate a risk review.

The different frameworks per the PMBOK guide are:

  1. PESTLE (political, economic, social, technological, & legal, environmental)
  2. TECOP (technical, environmental, commercial, operational, political)
  3. VUCU (volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity)

These are usually evaluated at the end of each phase of a project.

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20
Q

What are the outputs for Identify Risks?

A

Risk Register
Risk Report
Project Documents Updates - such as an updated RBS

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21
Q

What does a risk register include?

A
list of all identified risks
possible reactions to each risk
what the root causes are
what categories the risks fall into
risk owners
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22
Q

What is the different between a risk report and risk register?

A

A risk report is more of a summary document, looks at factors contributing to risk and high-level information on the identified risks.

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23
Q

What is involved with Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?

A

It takes each risk from the risk register and works to analyze the probability it will occur and its impact if it does. By using a probability and impact matrix (PIM), a prioritization and ranking can be created, and updated on the risk register. This allows you to put the right emphasis on the right risks.

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24
Q

What are the input for Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?

A

Project Management Plan
Project Documents
Enterprise Environment Factors
Organizational Process Assets

25
Q

What are the tools used for Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis?

A

Expert Judgement
Data Gathering
Data Analysis:
> Risk Data Quality Assessment (Garbage in = Garbage out)
Risk Probability and Impact Assessment / Probability and Impact Matrix (PIM)
Aassessment of Other Risk Parameters:
> Urgency - how much time you have to respond to a risk event
> Proximity - how much time you have before the risk impacts the project goals
> Dormancy - how much time will likely pass before the risk impacts project goals
> Manageability - how easily a risk can be managed
> Controllability - how easily a risk even can be changed
> Detectability - how easily a risk even can be noticed
> Connectivity - understanding how risks are connected/interrelated
> Strategic Impact - how likely risk event is to impact a project or organization’s strategic goals
> Propinquity - the measure of how important the project’s stakeholders perceive the risk to be.
Interpersonal and Team Skills
Risk Categorization
Data Representation
Hierarchical Charts
Meetings

26
Q

What is the purpose of a Risk Probability and Impact Assessment / Probability and Impact Matrix (PIM)?

A

Evaluates each risk for likelihood of occurring and potential impact on the project. Each of the two values is given a ranking (such as low, medium or high OR 1 thorugh 10) and multiplied together to get a risk score. This resulting score is used to set the priorities.

27
Q

Is higher or lower dormancy more desirable?

A

A lower dormancy, that is a shorter period of time before an issue/risk/impact of a risk is detected.

28
Q

Is higher or lower propinquity desirable?

A

A lower propinquity, that is a the risk/risk event is perceived to be of lower important to the project stakeholders

29
Q

What is risk categorization?

A

Categoring the detailed risks to provide a big-picture of all risks involved. Helps reveal which parts of the project have the highest degree of uncertainty.

An RBS is a common way to organize identified risks into categories.

30
Q

What is a type of hierarchical chart used in Perform Qualitative Analysis?

A

A bubble chart, which shows rankings polotted on a X and Y axis, with a third dimension of data shown by the size of the data point. See p. 488 for example.

Bubble size may be used to represent impact value.

31
Q

What are the outputs of Perform Qualitative Analysis?

A

Project documents updates

32
Q

What does Perform Quantitatve Analysis seek to accomplish?

A

To assigna a projected value to quantify the risks that have been ranked by Perform Qualitative Analysis.

Often values in terms of cost or time.

33
Q

Is Perform Quantititative Analysis required on all projects? Why or Why not?

A

No, because on many project, qualitative analysis is enough.

34
Q

When is Perform Quantitative Analysis needed?

A

When a project is large, complex, strategic, requires it in the contract, or is required by a key stakeholder.

35
Q

What are the inputs to Perform Quantitative Analysis?

A

Project Management Plan
Project Documents
Enterpise Environmental Factors
Organizatonal Process Assets

36
Q

What tools are used to Perform Quantitative Analysis?

A
Expert Judgement
Data Gathering
Interpersonal and Team Skills
Representations of Uncertainty (visual)
Data Analysis
> Simulation
> Sensitivity Analysis
> Decision Tree Analysis
> Influence Diagrams
37
Q

What are the outputs of Perform Quantitative Analysis?

A

Project Document Updates

Risk Report

38
Q

**What are the common types of probability distributions? **

A

Triangular and Beta

Triangular Distribution: (P + O + ML ) / 3
Beta Distribution (PERT): (P + O + 4ML ) / 6

Beta Distribution is preferred in cases where we have a lot of historical data, and is more useful for similar type of projects, and experts are providing this based on historical evidence & experience .

If we are doing a project for the first time, and there is no previous history of similar projects to fall back on, it may make sense to use the Triangular distribution, as there is no basis to give more weight to a particular estimate. Thus, a Triangular Distribution is more suited for judgemental data estimates.

39
Q

What is the most common type of risk simulation?

A

Monte Carlo Analysis (see chp. 6 for more info)

40
Q

What is a commonly used tool for sensitivity analysis?

A

A tornado diagram, to show which risks pose the greatest risk/reward financially, as risks may be positive or negative. See p 492 for example.

Often use to show impact to project costs.

41
Q

What are decision trees used for?

A

To show probability and arrive at a dollar amount associated with each risk. See p 493 for example.

For each branch of the decision tree, compute the expected monetary value (EMV) for the event.

42
Q

What is an influence diagram?

A

Visual to depicts the actors (or entities), influences and possible outcomes of risk events. See p. 494 for example.

43
Q

What does Plan Risk Responses accomplish?

A

It creates an actionable plan for how each risk will be handled.

44
Q

When does Plan Risk Reponses get done?

A

After Plan Risk Management, Identify Risks, Perform Qualitative Analysis and Perform Quantitative Analysis have been performed.

45
Q

What are the inputs to Plan Risk Responses?

A
Project Management Plan
Project Documents
Risk Register
Enterprise Environmental Factors
Organizational process Assets
46
Q

What are the tools used to Plan Risk Responses?

A
Expert Judgement
Data Gathering
Interpersonal and Team Skills
Strategies for Threats (see p. 497 for list)
Strategies for Opportunities (see p. 498 for list)
Contingent Response Strategies
Strategies for Overall Project Risk
Data Analysis
Decision-Making
47
Q

What are the outputs for Plan Risk Responses?

A

Change Requests
Project Management Plan Updates
Project Documents Updates
> Updated Risk Register with planned responses

48
Q

What are the five strategies for threats (threats are anything that could potentially jeopardize the goals of the project)?

A
Escalate *not favored*
Avoid *often appropriate*
Transfer
Mitigate
Accept *often perfectly reasonable* - Sometimes acceptance is the best policy, often missed on exam
49
Q

What are the 5 strategies for opportunities (positive risks)?

A

Escalate - Managed at level above PM.
Exploit - If benefit to ending early, may add more peope in order to increase probability of finishing early.
Share
Enhance - influencing underlying cause in order to increase likelihood of risk event occuring
Accept

50
Q

What is a continigent response strategy?

A

A contingency or fallback plan, makes a decision based on a risk contigent upon certain conditions.

51
Q

What are the two analytical techniques used in Plan Risk Response?

A

Alternatives Analysis - to identify alternative ways to deal with or avoid risk events.

Cost-benefit Analysis - Evaluating if a response costs more than the risk.

52
Q

When do you execute Implementing Risk Responses?

A

Depends on the risks identified.

53
Q

What are the inputs needed to execute Implementing Risk Responses?

A

Project Management Plan
Project Documents
Organizational Process Assets

54
Q

What are the tools needed to execute Implementing Risk Responses?

A

Expert Judgement
Interpersonal and Team Skills
Project Management Information System (PMIS)

55
Q

What are the outputs needed to execute Implementing Risk Responses?

A

Change Requests - the primary way responses are implemented

Project Documents Updates

56
Q

What are the inputs used to Monitor Risks?

A

Project Management Plan
Project Documents
Work Performance Data
Work Performance Reports

57
Q

What are the tools used to Monitor Risks?

A
Data Analysis
 > Technical Performance Analysis
 > Reserve Analysis
Audits
Meetings - establishing project culture where bringing up items related to risk is always acceptable and risk is discussed regularly.
58
Q

What are the outputs used to Monitor Risks?

A
Work Performance Information
Change Requests
Project Management Plan Updates
Project Document Updates
Organizational Process Assets Updates
59
Q

Agile Perspective on Risk Management:

A
  • Less risk planning & smaller steps to minimize risk
  • Seeks to identify risks early and respond rapidly
  • As uncertainty unfolds, prioritization of backlogged work is updated/changed
  • Taking small incremental steps means risk occurences detected relatively quickly without significant backtracking or loss.

Plan Risk Management - to manage risk through small, incremental development and delivery. No large risk management plan produced.

Identify Risks - difficult to translate to Agile, may be performed when planning for an iteration

Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis - Unlikely to be performed on an Agile project to same extent but uses same tools and techniques.

Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis - Unlikely to be performed on an Agile project to same extent but uses same tools and techniques.

Plan Risk Reponses - Does not translate well to Agile, could be performed on a smaller scale for upcoming iteration.

Implement Risk Responses - Agile projects implement “Spike Solutions,” which help evaluate a risk and determine which course of action to take.

Monitor Risks - Difficult to apply to Agile because no plan to evaluate against reality.