CCC week 8 -thinking & reasoning

Question 1

Research in this area is grouped under what headings?

Answer 1

Judgement
Decision making
Problem solving
Reasoning

Question 2

What is a judgement?

Answer 2

The component of decision making that concerns calculating the likelihood of certain events (if I go to the pub I will not have time to write a good lab report…)

Question 3

What is decision making?

Answer 3

Selecting one out of a number of potential options (write lab report or go for a drink…)

Question 4

What is problem solving?

Answer 4

The cognitive processes that take us from recognising that there is a problem through to developing a solution (start and end state & operators - start state things to make a chair, end state the chair, operators are the tools.)

Question 5

What is reasoning?

Answer 5

The component of problem solving that concerns determining what conclusions can be drawn given various statements (premises) are assumed to be true

Question 6

What area of the brain/ cognitive system is used for all 4 things (reasoning, decision making, judgement, problem solving) ?

Answer 6

Frontal Cortex!!

Responsible for higher level thinking!

Question 7

Judgement- under uncertainty

Are we good at estimating the likelihood of things?

What did they say? (Giggerenzer & Hoffrage (1999)

Answer 7

We are not good!!

We are simply not “wired” to understand percentages, fractions, probabilities etc

Question 8

Judgement- under uncertainty

What is a better way for us to estimate things?

Answer 8

We are better if the question is rephrased so that it emphasizes frequencies rather than probabilities

Around 75% of people get this right!

But reframing problems in terms of frequencies may just make the underlying structure of the problem easier to understand
– we’re still pretty bad at judging frequencies

Question 9

Judgement- under uncertainty

What did Kahneman & Tversky come up with?

Answer 9

3 types of heuristics

Due to cognitive / time limitations we employ heuristics when making judgments

Availability
Representativeness
Anchoring and adjustment

Question 10

What are the 3 heuristics?

Answer 10

Availability
Representativeness
Anchoring & Adjustment

Question 11

What are heuristics?

Answer 11

Heuristics are mental shortcuts for solving problems in a quick way that delivers a result that is sufficient enough to be useful given time constraints.

Question 12

What is availability heuristic?

Answer 12

An availability heuristic is a mental shortcut that relies on immediate examples that come to a given person’s mind when evaluating a specific topic, concept, method, or decision.

As follows, people tend to use a readily available fact to base their beliefs on a comparably distant concept.

Question 13

What is representativness heuristic?

Answer 13

Mental shortcut that we use when estimating probabilities.

When we’re trying to assess how likely a certain event is, we often make our decision by assessing how similar it is to an existing MENTAL PROTOTYPE

e.g. if you have a man who looked like a computer geek- and you have to guess what he graduated in- you are likely to think it will be in computer science.

Question 14

What is a base rate?

Answer 14

The naturally occurring frequency of a phenomenon in a population.

Often when making judgements- we ignore this.

Question 15

What is anchoring and adjustement?

Answer 15

An anchoring bias is a faulty heuristic which occurs when you focus on one piece of information when making a decision or solving a problem.

People make inaccurate final estimates due to inaccurate adjustments from an initial value.

Question 16

Anchoring & adjustement

Tversky & Kahneman (1974)- What was their study?

Answer 16

2) Is percentage of African countries in UN smaller or greater than number produced by wheel of fortune? (filler question)

What is likelihood that a country selected at random from UN is from Africa? (real question) You are affected by the number from the first unrelated question

When stage 1 number was 65, average estimate was 45%
When stage 1 number was 10, average estimate was 25%

Question 17

What is utility theory?

Answer 17

Determining which of several options is “best” is very difficult.

Utility Theory: We should choose the option which has the greatest utility (value to us).

Question 18

What theory did Khaneman & Tversky (1984) develop?

Answer 18

Developed “prospect theory”

Behavioral model that shows how people decide between alternatives that involve risk and uncertainty (e.g. % likelihood of gains or losses).
It demonstrates that people think in terms of expected utility relative to a reference point (e.g. current wealth) rather than absolute outcomes.

At its heart is the assertion that we are “loss averse” – we pay more attention to potential losses than potential gains.

Question 19

Prospect theory can explain what effect?

Answer 19

The framing effect

Question 20

What is the framing effect?

Answer 20

A cognitive bias where people decide on options based on whether the options are presented with positive or negative connotations; e.g. as a loss or as a gain.

People tend to avoid risk when a positive frame is presented but seek risks when a negative frame is presented.

Example:A bird flue epidemic is expected to kill 600 people.
(Tversky & Khaneman, 1987)

You can choose one of two treatment strategies:
Will save 200 people
Has a 33.3% chance of saving everyone, but a 66.6% chance of saving no-one.
Option B Emphasises losses, so people tend to choose A (despite the fact that the two options are “equivalent”).

Question 21

What is the Somatic Marker Hypothesis (Damasio) ?

Answer 21

In the real world conscious deliberation is supplemented by a more unconscious process based on “gut feelings”.

Associations between possible routes of action and the emotional state they (or similar courses of action) resulted in on previous occasions are stored.

These “somatic markers” are reinstated (physiologically) and used to bias attention towards the most appropriate decision

Question 22

What are somatic markers?

Answer 22

The somatic marker hypothesis, formulated by Antonio Damasio and associated researchers, proposes that emotional processes guide behavior, particularly decision-making.

“Somatic markers” are feelings in the body that are associated with emotions, such as the association of rapid heartbeat with anxiety or of nausea with disgust.

Question 23

What three aspects does problem solving have?

Answer 23

It is goal directed (how do I make the graphs for my lab report)

An immediate solution is not available (the graph doesn’t exist)

It involves conscious cognitive processes (it isn’t going to happen if you think about whether everyone else is having fun at the pub…)

Question 24

Problem solving

What are the three parts of the problem?

If you are clear about all parts- what is the problem referred to as?

Answer 24

The problem Itself (the start state)
The things you might do (the operators)
The solution (the goal state)

well-specified

Question 25

Problem solving

What are the early approaches?
What is insight?
What is Functional fixedness?

Answer 25

Early approaches:

Behaviourism- trial and error learning
Gestalt psychology

Insight:
The “aha” experience – resulting in
a transformation of the problem.

Functional fixidness:
Where you only think of using an item in a manner consistent with its “standard function” (you can use a certain object for something that its not initially made for)

Question 26

Problem solving

What do you do in the tower of hanoi?

Answer 26

Transfer all the discs to the third peg.

Move only one disc at a time.

Never place a larger disc on top of a smaller one.

The hardest problems are those requiring a move that takes you (temporarily) further away from the goal state

Question 27

A special case of problem solving

What is deductive reasoning?

Answer 27

When the conclusion is certain if premises are true.

Question 28

What is inductive reasoning?

Answer 28

When conclusions are likely to be valid, but require further evidence, and can be regarded as hypotheses.

Question 29

What type of reasoning do psychologists mostly study?

What is science based on?

Answer 29

Psychologists mostly study deductive reasoning
Most of science is based on inductive reasoning

Question 30

Reasoning

What are syllogisms?

Answer 30

A syllogism is a kind of logical argument that applies deductive reasoning to arrive at a conclusion based on two propositions that are asserted or assumed to be true.

In its earliest form, a syllogism arises when two true premises validly imply a conclusion, or the main point that the argument aims to get across.

Premise 1: All psychology students are poor
Premise 2: No psychology students are stupid
Conclusion: Some poor people are not stupid

Question 31

Reasoning

What is conditional reasoning?

Answer 31

Conditional reasoning refers to making inferences based on a conditional statement of the form “if p, then q,” which is called the major premise in a conditional reasoning task.

In this setting, p is called the antecedent, and q is called the consequent.

Premise 1: If p (it rains), then q (Bob is wet)
Premise 2: p (it rains)
Conclusion : q (Bob is wet)

There are two valid inferences:
Modus ponens: If p then q; p; Therefore q
Modus tollens: If p then q; not q; Therefore not p

Question 32

When doing hypothesis testing- what bias do we form?

Answer 32

We exhibit confirmation bias - a tendency to seek information that confirms a theory rather than that which might falsify it

Question 33

Reasoning

What are the two valid inferences?

Answer 33

Modus ponens: If p then q; p; Therefore q
Modus tollens: If p then q; not q; Therefore not p

Question 34

Reasoning

What are the two invalid inferences?

Answer 34

Affirming the consequent: If p then q; q; Therefore p
Denying the antecedent: If p then q; not p; Therefore not q

Question 35

What was Wasons selection task?

Answer 35

Rule: “If there is a vowel on one side there is an even number on the other”
Which cards need to be turned over to determine whether the rule is correct?

If any card doesn’t obey the rule, you know the rule is invalid - FALSIFICATION (Karl Popper)
If a card does obey the rule, you learn nothing as another card may not – CONFIRMATION is useless
We should turn only the cards that may provide falsification – E and 7.
If either E has an odd number on the back or 7 has a vowel on the back then the rule is falsified.