Authoritarian Politics Lecture 5: Party Creation as Autocratic Survival Strategy

Question 1

The power sharing bargain must be credible to both sides (T/F)

Answer 1

true. allies must believe that the dictator will comply, and the dictator must believe the allies will support him if he keeps his promises.

Question 2

What is another problem with power sharing

Answer 2

the allies (military officers) cannot credibly promise to be loyal if they are internally factionalized

Question 3

Who has bigger credibility problems? (D or M)

Answer 3

Although the dictator has a credibility problem in keeping his promises, the bigger problem is that the military cannot credibly commit to stay loyal and not to oust the dictator

Question 4

Who has credibility problems?

Answer 4

both the dictator and the military

Question 4

What is a solution to this power sharing problem

Answer 4

instead of getting rid of members of the inner circle, bring in new civilian allies for support!

Question 5

Why does the Military have a bigger commitment problem?

Answer 5

because the military - if it is factionalized and/or undisciplined- has a control problem

Question 6

what is the militaries control problem

Answer 6

It cannot prevent ‘rogue’ coups, i.e. coups by factions that are often lead by lower-ranked officers. (Why?)
If the dictator cannot trust the military officers’ ability to prevent rogue coups, there is little reason to comply and share power and resources - it will not protect him

Question 7

what are several survival strategy eg when facing a factionalized support group

Answer 7

1. give more money to the military
2. promote loyal officers and retire or exile opponents
3. create and control security police and paramiltary forces
4. New Party Creation

Question 7

What is the issue with strategies 1-3

Answer 7

they are risky because they are visible to the military and who may resist them

Question 8

Why may New Party Creation be better?

Answer 8

• creating. civilian support group (new Party) to decrease the dependence on the military
• parties can mobilize mass civilian support in the form of demonstrations and elections

Question 9

How can civillian support deter coups?

Answer 9

because military officers have a strong preference for unopposed coups

Question 10

why do military officers have a strong preference for unopposed coups

Answer 10

• because party members may also serve as informants which may increase to risk to execute a coup
• Party official and party members have an interest in the dictator’s survival because they benefit in terms of positions, resources, and privileges.

Question 11

If dictators really create new parties to guard themselves against the military, we should be able to observe the following

Answer 11

H1: Most newly created dictatorial support parties should be led either by the dictator himself or one of his relatives or close allies.
H2: Dictators create authoritarian support parties as part of an effort to marginalize armed supporters from policy-making.
H3: Parties should be created before elections that confirm the dictator as national executive.
H4: Military dictatorships led by junior officers should create more support parties than those led by higherranked officers.
H5: Dictator control over internal security services should be more likely in dictatorships that create a new support party than in those that do not.
H6: The establishment of new paramilitary forces to protect the dictator should be more likely in dictatorships that create a new support party than in those that do not.

Question 12

Is the Creation of a New Party Initiated by the Dictator?

Answer 12

Yes, in three-quarters of all autocratic regimes in which a party was created after the seizure of power, either the dictator or a close relative led the party

Question 13

Does the Creation of a New Party Happen Before Elections?

Answer 13

yes

Question 14

Is Party Creation Part of a Strategy to Reduce the Dictator’s Vulnerability to Coups?

Answer 14

If yes, we should see them also engage in other coup-proofing strategies
72 % of dictators that create a new party, also take personal control of internal security Or an 25 % increase in probability when accounting for cross-country variation using fixed effects. 52 % of them also establish paramilitary forces Or an 33 % increase in probability when accounting for cross-country variation using fixed effects

Question 15

What are other coup-proofing strategies

Answer 15

• taking personal control of internal security
• establish paramilitary forces

Question 16

why do dictators create new parties

Answer 16

as a strategy to reduce their dependence on the military which cannot credibly commit to support when it is factionalized.

Question 17

Dictatorial ruling parties are

Answer 17

tools of autocratic survival

Question 18

What is the paradox?

Answer 18

Creating a new post-seizure party leads to greater personalization of power (the dictator himself decides over party offices and resources.)

Question 19

Pre-Seizure Parties

Answer 19

• parties extend the life of autocracies because they help overcome the dictator’s credible commitment problem.
• When the party controls access to office - including the leader position itself - the dictator has good reasons to fulfill his promises, because he can be removed from office.

Question 20

Why do pre seizure party allies have reason to remain loyal?

Answer 20

because they can expect benefits, including higher offices in the future.

Question 21

Post-Seizure Parties

Answer 21

• this obviously only works if the dictator delegates power to the party - which is unlikely if the dictator is strong and is the one who created the party in the first place
• Here, the dictator not only cannot credibly commit - he does not want or need to

Question 22

What is the paradox of post-seizure party creation?

Answer 22

What looks like a broadening of the support coalition by including civilians, is actually a move toward greater power concentration in the hands of the dictator: Threatening military supporters are replaced by less threatening civilian supporters - who depend entirely on the dictator.

Question 22

Post-seizure party creation is

Answer 22

s a survival strategy which allows the dictator to rid himself from his dependence on the military. Importantly, it reduces the probability of coups staged by regime insiders.

Question 22

what is the Main take away:

Answer 22

: even parties that do not solve the dictator’s credible commitment problem increase autocratic survival