Analyzing Risk Data Flashcards
What are some of the tools and techniques you can use to perform qualitative risk analysis?
Interpersonal and team skills
Risk probability and impact assessment
Risk categorization
Expert judgment
Probability and impact matrix
Meetings
Interviews
Expert judgment
- This is a correct option. You may need specialized expertise and advice in order to perform qualitative risk analysis effectively.
Interpersonal and team skills
- This is a correct option. In order to effectively manage interviews and team meetings, you’ll need to have strong interpersonal skills, such as facilitation skills, to keep participants engaged in the tasks at hand and to resolve conflicts.
Assessment of risk parameters
- This is a correct option. Assessing risk parameters is a data analysis technique that enables you to gain different perspectives on identified risks.
Hierarchical charts
- This is a correct option. Hierarchical charts are one method of data representation that allow you to categorize more than two parameters at a time when performing a qualitative risk analysis.
Risk categorization
- This is a correct option. Risk categorization helps you analyze risks by grouping them together according to their sources.
Meetings
- This is a correct option. When carrying out a qualitative risk analysis, you may need to organize workshops with the project team to discuss, classify, and rate risks.
Data gathering
- This is a correct option. Data gathering – specifically interviewing – is an important way of discovering individual risks that could affect your project.
you calculate priority scores for your project’s risks:
funding shortages: 0.06
staffing shortages: 0.05
loss of key personnel: 0.2
resource problems: 0.28
Rank risk priorities from highest to lowest.
Resource problems
- A risk priority rating of 0.28 ranks the resource problems risk as the highest priority risk in this case.
Loss of key personnel
This should be number 2 in the sequence. - A risk priority rating of 0.2 ranks the loss of key personnel risk as the second highest priority risk.
Funding shortages
This should be number 3 in the sequence. - A risk priority rating of 0.06 ranks the funding shortages risk as the third highest priority risk.
Staffing shortages
- A risk priority rating of 0.05 ranks the staffing shortages risk as the fourth and lowest priority risk.
Project document updates are the typical outputs of a qualitative risk analysis.
Which documents are updated?
- Risk register
- The risk register is one of the documents that may be updated as a result of risk analysis. It’s an input to the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis and Plan Risk Responses processes and is updated and adjusted throughout the project life cycle. - Assumptions log
- This is a correct option. The assumptions log is one of the documents that may be updated as a result of risk analysis. In it, you record all the project assumptions made during various planning and estimating processes. - Risk report
- This is a correct option. The risk report is one of the documents that may need to be updated as a result of risk analysis. It provides a summary of individual project risks and is also used as an input to the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process. - Issue log
- This is a correct option. The issue log is a project document that might be updated as a result of risk analysis. It outlines problems that are currently affecting the project and measures to overcome them.
What are the common inputs to the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process?
Risk-related information from previous projects
Risk databases
Basis of estimates
Schedule baseline
Scope baseline
- This is a correct option. The scope baseline is a part of the project management plan that outlines activity durations, which may be affected by potential risks.
Risk register
- This is a correct option. An important project document, the risk register details project risks you need to analyze and assign numeric values to during quantitative risk analysis.
Historical information
- This is a correct option. Historical information is an organizational process asset that enables you to discover what unplanned events and strategies were used in previous projects that may apply to your current one.
Industry studies of similar projects
- This is a correct option. Enterprise environmental factors, like industry studies and risk databases, provide valuable insight when carrying out a quantitative risk analysis.
You’re assessing the possible costs of completing an upgrade to your organization’s network.
What are some of the examples of information you should obtain during a risk data gathering interview?
- The lowest likely total cost of the project will be $280,000
- This is a correct option. During a risk data gathering interview, you should obtain a best-case estimate of what the project will cost, as well as likely cost and a worse-case estimate. - The total cost of the project could go as high as $450,000
- This is a correct option. Part of the information you should gather is a worst-case estimate of how much the project could cost, given the risks it faces, as well as best-case and likely estimates. - probability estimates are based on the costs of a previous similar network upgrade project, which faced comparable risks
- This is a correct option. As well as determining the best-case, most likely, and worst-case cost estimates, it’s important to document the rationale on which these estimates are based. - most likely total cost of the project will be in the region of $320,000
- This is a correct option. You should obtain an estimate of what the project is most likely to cost, as well as best and worst-case estimates.
What are the different types of continuous distribution?
- Triangular
Selected
Correct answer. - This is a correct option. A triangular distribution has a triangular shape because it connects three data points: best-case, most likely, and worst-case estimates. The peak of the triangle is near the top of the Y-axis scale. - Normal
- This is a correct option. A normal distribution is symmetrical. The average value is at the top of the curve, and all other values fall evenly on either side to form a bell shape. - Beta
- This is a correct option. A beta distribution includes a minimum and a maximum value, with a curve representing the probabilities of values in between.
he highest point of the curve represents the most likely value. - Uniform
- This is a correct option. In a uniform distribution, each possible value within a given range is just as likely as any other. So in a graph, a straight line represents the distribution of probabilities.
What is the purpose of sensitivity analysis?
To determine which risks have the greatest potential impact
- This is the correct option. Sensitivity analysis involves identifying the relative potential impacts of different risks on project objectives. Based on the results, you can rank risks from greatest to least likely impact.
You determine that if new machinery is ordered, there’s a 40% probability it will take 14 days to arrive and a 60% probability it will take 28 days.
What is the total EMV for ordering the machinery?
22.4 days
To calculate the EMV for a risk, you multiply its potential impact by its probability. In this case, you multiply 40% by 14 days and 60% by 28 days and add the totals together.
The results of a cost risk simulation display on a cumulative chart.
Which statement describes what the highlighted point is communicating about the cost-related risk?
There is a 25% chance that the project will meet a budget requirement of $43 million
- This is the correct option. The probability reading at the $43 million mark is 25%, indicating that the project has a 25% chance of costing $43 million.
What information is generally updated in the risk report once the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process is completed?
- An in-depth probabilistic analysis of the project - This is a correct option. An important output of quantitative risk analysis is a probabilistic analysis of the project, which shows how risks are most likely to impact a project’s total cost and completion time. This information is often represented in the form of a cumulative distribution.
- Recommended risk responses
- This is a correct option. One of the main purposes of carrying out quantitative risk analysis is to provide feasible recommendations for responding to the risks highlighted. - A list of prioritized individual risks
- This is a correct option. As a result of quantitative risk analysis, you can create a prioritized list of risks based on quantified data about their probable effects on a project. This provides an objective way for the risk management team to determine which risks to prioritize during risk response planning. - The overall project risk exposure assessment
- This is a correct option. The results of quantitative risk analysis include statistical probabilities of the outcomes of risks and of achieving cost and time objectives. Consequently, an evaluation of overall project risk exposure should be included. - Trends in quantitative risk analysis results
- This is a correct option. When you repeat quantitative risk analysis at different points in a project, trends – or patterns – may emerge in the analysis results. These can alert you to the likely effects of particular risks on the remainder of the project.
Which examples are inputs to the Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis process?
Risk management plan
Risk register
Enterprise environmental factors
Organizational process assets
You calculate priority scores for project risks:
calculation errors: 0.14
substandard materials: 0.24
toxic waste spill: 0.2
inadequate safety procedures: 0.08
Rank risk priorities from highest to lowest.
Substandard materials
Toxic waste spill
Calculation errors
Inadequate safety procedures
What are some of the examples of information you should obtain during a risk data gathering interview?
Risks that could impact project costs include staff shortages and the need to rework problems that arise during quality testing
Selected
Incorrect answer.
Given a worst-case scenario, the total cost of the project could go as high as $6.5 million
Not selected
Correct answer.
The most likely total cost of the project will be in the region of $4.8 million
Selected
Correct answer.
The probability estimates are based on costs of a previous similar project, which faced comparable risks
Selected
Correct answer.
Optimistically, the lowest total cost of the project will be $2.5 million
Selected
Correct answer.
What types of information should you update in a risk report as a result of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process?
- List of individual risks, ranked by priority
- Evaluation of the project’s overall risk exposure
- Probabilistic analysis of the project with statistics on its outcomes
- Patterns in quantitative risk analysis results
- Recommendations on how to respond to risks
What elements should you update in a risk report as a result of the Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis process?
Prioritized list of individual project risks
Recommended risk responses Not selected Correct answer. Assessment of overall project risk exposure Selected Correct answer. Detailed probabilistic analysis of the project Selected Correct answer. Trends in quantitative risk analysis results Selected Correct answer.
