9.2 Techniques for identifying risk events

Question 1

Ashby lists 6 categories of risk identification techniques:

1 E\_\_\_\_\_\_ j\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
2 F\_\_\_\_\_ g\_\_\_\_\_ and s\_\_\_\_\_\_
3 C\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
4 P\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ i\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
5 A\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_ a\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_
6 L\_\_\_\_\_ e\_\_\_\_\_\_ and n\_\_\_ m\_\_\_\_\_ i\_\_\_\_\_\_\_\_

Answer 1

Expert judgement
Focus groups and surveys
Checklists
Physical investigations
Analytical approaches
Loss event and near miss investigations

Question 2

What is “expert judgement”?

Answer 2

A risk assessment technique relying on the skills and expertise of relevant specialists

Question 3

What is a “focus group”?

Answer 3

A risk assessment technique using a range od fiferent perspectives and experiences to achieve a concencus view.

Question 4

What is a common alternative to a focus group?

Answer 4

A survey

Question 5

What are the costs and benefits of using expert judgement versus a focus group?

Answer 5

An expert will provide specialist insight, but a focus group may provide a wider range of perspectives. However, focus groups are likely to be more expensive due to the number of people involved.

Question 6

What is the purpose of a checklist?

Answer 6

To ensure that particular types of risk event are not forgotten.

Question 7

How might a checklist be created?

Answer 7

An organisation could draw its own checklist based on experience or past events such as focus groups, or an external checklist could be provided by an expert, regulator, etc.

Question 8

Give an example of an external checklist.

Answer 8

The Basel loss event types (to help identify operational risks)

Question 9

What are the pros and cons of more detailed checklists?

Answer 9

A more detailed checklists reduces the change that important risk events are missed, but increases the time that must be devoted to risk identification.

Question 10

Give 3 benefits of checklists.

Answer 10

Cheap and efficiently collate large amounts of information
Simple and easy to use
Useful way of monitoring trends over time
Can be adapted to individual risk areas
Useful as a common format
Can be used as compliance evidence.

Question 11

Give 3 disadvantages of checklists

Answer 11

Can be used by someone not skilled in checklists
Can be completed by someone who may not understand the purpose
Can lead to “form filling”
May be ambiguous to the reader
May be completed too quickly and iwthout thought
May be completed by someone who wishes to suppress information

Question 12

In which risk area are physical inspections most common?

Answer 12

Health and safety

Question 13

What are the avantages of physical inspections?

Answer 13

Provides reccomendations for improvement

Question 14

What are 3 disadvantages of physical inspections?

Answer 14

Inspector can only inspect what is visible on the day
An inspection programme can be expensive
It can be difficult to arrange inspections of third parties
Risk management should be the responsibility of everyone - inspections can absolve responsibility.

Question 15

What are Ashby’s four examples of analytical approaches?

Answer 15

The structured what-if technique
The Delphi technique
Root cause analysis
System and process mapping

Question 16

What does SWIFT stand for?

Answer 16

Structured what-if technique

Question 17

What is the general approach to SWIFT?

Answer 17

A leader facilitates a discussion of potential risk events within a team, using a series of “what if” questions. Responses are recorded in a log sheet.

Question 18

In which sectors is SWIFT most common?

Answer 18

High risk sectors such as nuclear power or chemical processing.

Question 19

What is the Delphi technique?

Answer 19

An information gathering tool used to reach concensus on a subject. Experts participate anonymously and a facilitator uses a questionnaire to solicit ideas. Responses are summarised and recirculated for comments

Question 20

Wht are the benefits of the Delphi technique?

Answer 20

It avoids bias and keeps any one person from having undue inflience on risk identification. Anonymity encourages honesty and openess.

Question 21

What is the downside of th Delphi technique?

Answer 21

It can be very time consuming.

Question 22

What is root cause analysis?

Answer 22

A risk assessment technique that seeks to find the root cause of either real or predicted risk events.

Question 23

What is the benefit of root cause analysis?

Answer 23

It explores the reasons for risk events, allowing action to be taken to prevent them happening.

Question 24

Root cause analysis is based on 4 principles:
1 Identify c_____ of the event
2 Establish the t_______
3 Distiguis between root and more immediate c______
4 Use results to improve controls and manage future events

Answer 24

causes
timeline
causes

Question 25

What is the five whys technique?

Answer 25

A simple technique of asking “why” five times to get to the cause of any issues

Question 26

When is root cause analysis most useful?

Answer 26

When trying to understand a large and negative risk event (it is not cost effective to use it for every risk)

Question 27

What is fault tree analyis?

Answer 27

A process for looking at what might cause systems or a process flow to fail.

Question 28

What are an advantage and disadvantage of fault tree analysis?

Answer 28

Advantage - highlights connect risk events that could combine into larger events.

Disadvantage - time consuming and costly

Question 29

Loss events and near missed are l_______ opportunities.

Answer 29

learning

Question 30

What is a near miss and why should they be investigated?

Answer 30

Near misses are incidents that nearly lead to risk events. They should be investigated to understand what went wrong and preventing the same happening again.