7.3 Emerging Power Flashcards
7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
Brazil
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7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
Russia
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7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
India
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7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
China
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7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
G20
G20 is the international forum for the world’s 20 largest economies
Europe and USA’s share of world GDP has been in decline since about 1945-1990 respectively (yet both are still around 20%)
China and India are now becoming increasingly significant to the global economy
7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
General
The BRIC nations account for 43% of global carbon dioxide emissions
Global environment governance agreement to tackle climate change has to involve these countries
At the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris in 2015 the BRIC countries were involved in the agreement in a way they had not been when the 1997 Kyoto Protocol was signed, which only involved developed countries
7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
the role of emerging powers
The global consensus is that some emerging powers will be increasingly important to global economic and political systems in the 21st century and the dominance of the USA will decline
7.3a BRIC Nations and G20
emerging powers in the future
demand more say in global organisations such as the United Nations: there is a case for India having a permanent seat on the UN Security Council
have more influence over global financial decision making at the World Bank, IMF and WTO
play a greater role in international peacekeeping missions and disaster response, as their military capacity grows
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
trends
countries with ageing, or even declining populations (Russia, Japan, some EU countries and even China) face major problems in the future in paying for increasingly costly healthcare at the sea time as their workforce shrinks
shortages of physical resources could derail the ambitions of some countries (India) whereas growing pollution could stall the growth of others (China)
countries with modern infrastructure, balanced economic sectors and good energy supplies (China, Brazil, Mexico) will do better than ones yet to develop these (India, Indonesia, Nigeria)
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Brazil- economic
9th largest GDP
huge natural resources and farming potential
modern economic structure
economy has ‘boom and bust’ phases
strong agricultural economy and exporter
energy independent in oil and biofuels
growing middle class and maturing consumer economy
Brazil is important regionally in South America because it produces half of South America’s GDP (in 2015), although it does rely on primary products for export, rather than manufacturing
It has huge natural resources and is self-sufficient in both food and energy. its an agricultural superpower, the third largest producers of iron ore, the second largest biofuel, the fifteenth largest oil and the third largest of HEP
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Brazil- political
Brazil has been politically less stable in recent years, with accusations of corruption, as well as protests every year since 2013, caused by government spending cuts and perceived government corruption
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Brazil- military
small military strength with only a regional intervention capacity
it spends over 60% of South America’s total military budget, but is the least significant of the BRICs
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Brazil- cultural
regional leader in Latin America
culturally influential with 2012 World Cup and 2016 Olympics
Brazil has a global reputation as a footballing nation.
it is also famous for the Rio Carnival
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Brazil- demographic
education levels lag behind competitors
Brazil contains half of South America’s population (210 million in 2016). Its population is young (median age 31.3 in 2015), but ageing. The fertility rate fell from 6 in 1960 to 1.8 in 2015
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Brazil- environmental
needs to control the destruction of its forests
Brazil’s biodiversity includes 13% of all known species, with a huge range of flor and fauna- especially in the Amazon. It supports global initiatives, e.g. UN Conference on Climate Change and is a leader in using ethanol
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Russia- economic
Russia is the 9th largest global economy, but its very dependent on oil and gas exports (producing half of its GDP), so its vulnerable to global price fluctuations
Its economy is unbalanced. Under the USSR, it was a big producer of electronics, vehicles, food and medicines. But its manufacturing halved after 1991.
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Russia- political
difficult relations with the rest of the world
permanent seat on the UN Security Council
difficult diplomatic and geopolitical relationships with EU and USA
Russian influence’ matters to Russians. There has been a reduction in Russia’s global influence since 1991, although Vladimir Putin has sought to rebuild it in recent years, including substantial role in Syria between 2012 and 2017.
Russia did not support Ukraine’s application for membership of the EU and NATO. It still maintains political influence over many of its neighbours, all former republics of the USSR.
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Russia- military
a nuclear power with very large military capacity
Although the military spending has increased, much of Russia’s naval and aircraft stock is ageing, e.g. its one aircraft carrier dates from the Soviet era
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Russia- cultural
Russian is spoken little beyond the borders fo the former USSR, but Russia’s history is of global significance. It has a large cultural tourist identity. Though 81% of ethnic Russian, its diverse population includes Tartars, Ukrainians and Chechens
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Russia- demographic
ageing and declining population, which is also unhealthy
extreme levels of inequality
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
Russia- environmental
Between 1991 and 2015 inclusive, Russia’s population declined in 21 of the 25 years, and has never recovered to its 1991 level. Its natural increase is now tiny (0.02 per 1000), and its fertility rate is low (1.78 in 2015).
Russia has a pollution legacy from industrialisation between 1930 and 1960, which occurred with little concern about the damage caused by deforestation, mining, spillages or toxic waste, and from the Chernobyl nuclear reactor explosion in 1986.
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
India- economic
7th largest GDP
global leader in IT technology
poor energy and transport infrastructure
large economic potential
poor transport and energy infrastructure
The Indian economy averaged 7% annual growth- and quadrupled between 1997 and 2015
Its economic advantages include an English- speaking education system and widespread use of English- leading to the growth of out-sourced industries in IT. its major universities also have global reputations.
Indian infrastructure is poor in both energy and water supply, as well as in transport . Power ups are frequent- one cut, in July 2012, affected 620 million people
The government is facing large debts, which ahas led to a reduction in the value of the rupee
20% of Indians live in abject poverty
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
India- political
poor political relations with its neighbours, especially Pakistan
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
India- military
nuclear armed, and has sophisticated space and missile technology
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
India- cultural
English is widely spoken and graduate education is widespread
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
India- demographic
youthful population; demographic dividend- will become a large working-age population in the future
widespread poverty
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
India- environmental
lack of water resources and energy
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
China- economic
2nd largest GDP (2016)
powerful manufacturing economy
a highly educated, technically innovative population
soon to be the world’s largest economy and leads in fields such s renewable energy
modern infrastructure in terms of transport, e.g. high-speed rail
rising wages make its economy increasingly high cost for TNCs
relies on imported materials
Due to its huge population (1.37 billion in 2016), China’s per capita GDP is only 10% of that of the USA, so wealth has yet to spread among its population.
In 209, only 2% of China’s adult population had graduated from university; 25-30% is usual in developed countries. This affects China’s potential in the knowledge economy, limiting its skills in design and research- its industries copy rather than innovate.
China is a major player in global investment. Its State-run companies and banks all invest heavily overseas. However, it also has massive levels of debt.
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
China- political
tense relationships with its neighbours in South East Asia
plays a limited geopolitical role; not yet a leader on the global stage
Unlike the USA, China rarely gets involved in global crises (e.g. natural disasters, military or political crises). China has an authoritarian, one-party government.
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
China- military
growing military technology and reach, challenging the USA
Although it has the world’s largest army, China has little global military reach. However, it does have military strengths.
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
China- cultural
Unlike the USA, which dominates, China has few global brands. It also has negligible impacts on global entertainment- ‘Western’ culture is largely American.
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
China- demographic
will soon have problems with an ageing population
China has a population dependency time bomb. Its former one-child policy has produced an ageing population; in 2015, its median age was 35.2 (compared with India’s 27.5). By 2020, 12% of Chinese will be over 65 (compared to India’s 6%). Traditionally, many Chinese retired age 51 (earlier than the legal age) leading to a high level of dependency.
China isolated in terms of international migration, unlike the USA which attracts global talent. It may need to supplement future recruitment among young people, as only 18% of Chinese were aged 0-14 in 2015 (compared to India’s 29%)
7.3b Emerging Nations Strengths and Weaknesses
China- environmental
major pollution issues in terms of air and water quality
China is the world’s largest Carbon-Dioxide emitter; emissions rose 286% from 1990-2013. it produces 33% of global emissions, but in 2016 began to commit to reduction targets.
China is now a leading investor in renewable technology.
7.3c Development Theory
World Systems theory (Wallerstein’s model)
LOOK AT MODEL
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7.3c Development Theory
Dependency theory (Freud’s model)
LOOK AT MODEL
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7.3c Development Theory
Modernisation theory/ ‘take-off model’ (Rostow’s model)
LOOK AT MODEL
the traditional society- based on subsistence; farming, fishing, forestry, and some mining
pre-conditions for take-off- building infrastructure that is needed before development can take places.g. transport network, money from farming, power supplies, communications
take-off- introduction and rapid growth (industrial revolution) of manufacturing industries, better infrastructure, financial investment, and cultural change
drive to maturity- new ideas and technology improve and replace older industries, economic growth spreads throughout the country
7.3c Development Theory
World system’s theory: transfers
three broad economic development strategies:
core regions- the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries and the USA and EU superpowers
semi-periphery regions- the NICs of Latin America and Asia, including emerging powers such as India and China
periphery regions- the rest of the developing world
7.3c Development Theory
Dependency theory: transfers
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7.3c Development Theory
Modernisation theory: stages of development
pre-industrial societies would develop very slowly until certain preconditions for economic take-off were met:
governance and legal systems, to encourage investment and protect trade
exports of raw materials to generate income
development of key infrastructure, e.g. roads, ports, electricity
technology, e.g. telephones, radio, television, becomes more widespread
education, leading to increased social mobility
banking and financial systems, to allow places to take part in global trade
7.3c Development Theory
World system’s theory: advantages
Recognises three broad economic development categories: core regions, semi-periphery regions, and periphery regions
shows the role of emerging economies driving the global economy
7.3c Development Theory
World system’s theory: disadvantages
This has the flexibility to recognise that countries may change group over time.
7.3c Development Theory
Dependency theory: advantages
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7.3c Development Theory
Dependency theory: disadvantages
The theory is static. This means that countries are stuck in a permanently underdeveloped state.
7.3c Development Theory
Modernisation theory: advantages
The economic wealth and an industrial economy are precursors to obtaining military power.
7.3c Development Theory
Modernisation theory: disadvantages
It only really describes the process of economic change and growth. It does not help us understand how some countries gain the political and cultural aspects of power needed to become a superpower.
Not all countries start at the same stage of development, despite independence.
