56: Climate Models and Predictions Flashcards
Can we just extrapolate (extend) the Keeling Curve?
No! there are other greenhouse gases whose concentrations are changing, and the ocean will remain warm for a while
What is a positive feedback mechanism?
reinforces and amplifies the ongoing trend
What is an example of a positive feedback mechanism?
higher temperature –> more water evaporation –> more water vapor in the atmosphere –> water vapor is a greenhouse gas –> higher temperature
What is a negative feedback mechanism?
diminishes or reverses a particular trend and maintains the initial conditions, goes against the change
What is an example of a negative feedback mechanism?
higher temperature –> more water evaporation –> more water vapor in the atmosphere –> more clouds –> more reflection of sunlight –> less sunlight reaching the surface –> lower temperatures (cooling)
What are climate models?
are computational devices for solving large sets of equations
- not perfect, but they can be tested against reality over time
what can climate models create?
possible scenarios, some more optimistic than others
(doesn’t mean everything is possible, not all answers are good answers but there are several answers that are possible)
In context of climate, what are scenarios called?
representative concentration pathways (RPC)
What are climate scenarios now?
- high emission scenario: no climate policies (global temperature increases 4.1-4.8C)
- mid-range emission scenario: current policies (global temperatures increase 2.5-2.9C)
- low emission scenario: global temperature increases 1.5 C
What is a tipping point?
critical point in a situation beyond which a significant and often unstoppable effect or change takes place
What does spurious mean?
not being what it purports to be; false or fake
