4. Making decisions Flashcards
Decision
making a choice from two or more alternatives.
Decision making Process
Step 1: Identify a Problem Step 2: Identify Decision Criteria Step 3: Allocate Weights to the Criteria Step 4: Develop Alternatives Step 5: Analyze Alternatives Step 6: Select an Alternative Step 7: Implement the Alternative Step 8: Evaluate Decision Effectiveness
Rational Decision-Making
describes choices that are logical and consistent while maximizing value.
Assumptions of Rationality
- The decision maker would be fully objective and logical
- The problem faced would be clear and unambiguous
- The decision maker would have a clear and specific goal and know all possible alternatives and consequences and consistently select the alternative that maximizes achieving that goal
Bounded Rationality
decision-making that’s rational, but limited (bounded) by an individual’s ability to process information.
Satisfice
accepting solutions that are “good enough.”
Escalation of commitment
an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence it may have been wrong.
Intuitive decision- making
Making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment.
Evidence-based management (EBMgt)
the systematic use of the best available evidence to improve management practice.
Structured Problems
straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems.
Programmed decision
a repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.
Procedure
a series of sequential steps used to respond to a well-structured problem.
Rule
an explicit statement that tells managers what can or cannot be done.
Policy
a guideline for making decisions.
Unstructured Problems
problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.
Nonprogrammed decisions
unique and nonrecurring and involve custom made solutions.
Certainty
a situation in which a manager can make accurate decisions because all outcomes are known.
Risk
a situation in which the decision maker is able to estimate the likelihood of certain outcomes.
Uncertainty
a situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable probability estimates available.