3.6 - Chaotic Response

Question 1

What Factors Are Built Into Climate Response Models

Answer 1

Natural Factors
Sun Cycles
Long Term Ocean Oscillations
El Nino
Jet Streams

Question 2

Human Factors

Answer 2

Population Growth
Economic Growth
Land-Use Change
Energy Profiles

Question 3

Carbon Dioxide Movements

Answer 3

Ocean Acidification
Carbon uptake from vegetation
Fire
Albedo
Thermohaline movements
Biological pumps

Question 4

The Problem

Answer 4

20% of CO2 lingers for several hundred years
Ocean gets saturated and so is vegetation, so where else?

Question 5

Physical Mechanisms (Why’s It Hard To Predict Future Climate Change).

Answer 5

No one knows how much ice will melt or much about thermal expansion
Science behind SLR not fully understood
Natural causes eg. volcanoes decrease temperature with ash but increase CO2
Unexpected positive feedback cycles meaning albedo changes.

Question 6

Human Mechanisms Making It Difficult To Predict Future Climate Change

Answer 6

Future GHG trends difficult to forecast
Business as usual approach leads to further greenhouse effect
Emission reduction strategies preventing temperature rise
Lack of agreement on reduction policies in emissions

Question 7

Peatland Uncertainty

Answer 7

How much carbon is locked up in peatlands and permafrost
Is it better to drain and release CO2 or allow methane to release
Will burning peatlands cause positive feedback cycles
Is the rate of restoration fast enough

Question 8

Permafrost Uncertainty

Answer 8

How much has temp increased? How much methane releases?
How much industrialisation has happened?
Is CO2 and CH4 still locked up?