WEEK 7- 13.2 inferential statistics Flashcards
inferential statistics
making inferences about a population using samples
key assumptions of inferential statistics
- sampling from complete target population
- simple random sampling with perfect response rate (or non response completely random)
- no nonsampling erorr
population distribution
age of citizens, attitudes
usually unknown bc we can’t measure everyone
sample distribution
we can see distribution in sample
sampling distribution
multiple samples
a probabilty distribution
normal distribution
tells you the probability of something being found by chance
estimation and inferences
we want to draw inferences to a populaiton, so we get a sample, and caldulate statistics, and we make an inference to the population
how do we know if our sample is good?
if we do multiple samples, and we calculate a sample statistic- these form a sampling distribution. we can calculate the standard error- allows us to say something about our confidence (CONFIDENCE THAT WE’RE CLOSE)
central limit theorem
**when drawing an infinite number of random samples, the distribution of sample means will be normal **(even if hte original variable isn’t normal)
confidence interval
we are 95% certain that our sample estimate comes close to the population parameter
h0: no difference statistical significance testing
0 means no difference
if 0 is in the confidence interval
NO DIFFERENCE
CHANCE/ RANDOM
observed difference testing
0 means no difference
if 0 is outside the confidence interval
UNLIKELY TO BE RANDOM
small sample => large random eror =>
not statistically significant
large sample => small random error =>
highly statistically significant