Week 4 Flashcards
What are the three responses to Stimuli?
1) Emotional reaction
2) Cognitive reaction
3) Behavioral conditioned reaction
What are the components of the Cognitive Reaction?
memory
attention
effort
List 3 non-scientific concepts
1) deep-magic: esoteric knowledge from only a guru
2) black-magic: knowledge disconnected from reality
3) Cargo-cult: ritualistic activities that accomplish nothing
Sensitivity
the ability to detect the issue of concern
Specificity
the ability to determine when the issue of concern is NOT present
- in polygraphy: the ability to determine when examinee is truthful - determines ability to prevent false-neg errors
is there a “Perfect” test?
NO
False Positive error
type 1 error–a truthful person indicates “deception”
False Negative error
type 2 error–when a deceptive person indicates a truthful response.
Reliability
Interrater reliability–the most important for polygraph testing
Validity
Construct Validity–does the test measure what we say it measures?
Criterion Validity–Does the test put the case in the correct catagory.
Incremental Validity–more information helps make better decisions.
Test Accuracy determined by?
3 factors-
1) sensitivity
2) specificity
3) base-rate/prior probability
3 advantages received by poly for field practice
1) greater certainty about who to interrogate
2) more productive interrogations
3) decreased ethical complaints
Prior Probability
our estimation of the probability of involvement in the issue.
incidence rate
estimated using risk factors
Mean
how the scores of people are similar
standard deviation
how the scores of people are different
normal range
+/-2 standard deviations
Gaussian Distribution
34.1%, 13.6%. 2.1%, and .1%
Diagnostic Exam
Any test conducted in response to a known problem -known incident -known allegation -ALWAYS a single issue -event specific -single issue -multi-facet Fail one=fail all
Screening Exam
any test conducted in the absence of a known issue, problem, allegation
- -multiple issues - -fail one----only fail one, not all - -not defined by the # of issues
Successive Hurdles
Medical model
- medicine - psychology - polygraph
What is a diagnostic test (single issue) optimized for?
specificity
What is a screening test optimized for?
sensitivity
What are Multi-facet exams?
- known incident
- multiple Qs for multi levels/roles of involvement
- MGQT/investigative techniques
- sensitivity to deception is equal to ZCT
- specificity is weaker than ZCT
Alpha is
- the set tolerance for error that is established prior to the test.
- matter of science and policy
- expressed in decimal value
What are the Confidence Levels of these alpha values?
a=.05
a=.01
a=.10
CL=95%
CL=99%
CL=90%
P-Value
Probability Value
- probability of error
- probability of FP or FN error
- expressed as a decimal
Significance
Statistically Significant
-expressed as a probability of error
-P-value
A result is significant when the p-value is <=a
Parsimony
a theory should account for the greatest range of phenomena with the simplest explanation.
-explanations and hypothesis require evidence
describe the scientific method
1) hypothesis testing
2) calculate the probability of error
3) publish
4) standards and controls for operation
5) general acceptance by scientific comm
Describe Hypothesis testing
Hypothesis–there is a difference in scores of truthful and deceptive people
Null-hypothesis–there is no difference
–design and experiment to demo that there is no difference
–discard hypothesis when no difference is found.
Proxy
phenomena of interest is amorphous or intangible
–cannot measure directly
–no unique lie response
proxy data are correlated with the phenomena
–correlation must be significant
What does the polygraph measure?
The polygraph records a combination of physiological proxies that have been shown to vary significantly with different types of test stimulus questions as a function of deception and truth-telling. Polygraph results are probabilistic measurements that describe the margin of error or level of confidence for a categorical conclusion.
What does the polygraph measure? 12 words
Polygraph measures the uncertainty surrounding a categorical conclusion of deception or truth-telling.
What is a goal of science and scientific testing?
To quantify the degree of uncertainty associated with a conclusion.
- statistic - statistical confidence interval