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Invest Bbas > Wave 618, FF, TradDev 2019 May 05 > Flashcards

Wave 618, FF, TradDev 2019 May 05 Flashcards

1
Q

Main X subcount on W618 Elliot count.

https://www.dropbox.com/s/yneh7h9ze3grgle/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2023.19.30.png?dl=0

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2
Q

Wave618: is the bottom in?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/krwntl016230b8y/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2023.26.01.png?dl=0

A

Possibly, one problem is the VOL not great enough
Priceaction alone: could be bottom, WXY great enough correction pattern
due to lack of VOL > another XZ could come
Z does not necessarily have to end up lower than Y
also on the fig: $3000 very good SUP/RES Flip level (see cursor) > magnet for the price: might be good target for a potential Z

https://www.dropbox.com/s/krwntl016230b8y/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2023.26.01.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=275

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3
Q

Pitchfork outer line seems RES for priceaction for BTC in 2019 Apr
which MA coincides with it?

A

50 SMA W major RES
in 2015 was also RES: was rejected first
once broken: signifies a trend: once above >> Bulltrend
untill bellow: Beartrend
in 2015: after capitulation tested > rejected; only 2nd attempt went through
in 2018 bearmarket: tested twice: Feb and Apr > still bounced back up, only at the 3rd attempt end of May broken bellow >> RES now andcurved down (also 50/89 EMA cross down, but golden cross on D, crazy)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/dwrrp7022n0ftck/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2023.35.54.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/25z1q95fruimi38/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2023.38.11.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=422

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4
Q

W618 szerint priceaction after 2018 Nov 16 break

A

Very corrective movement with declining VOL see fig
after the main Y in november: a possible X upwards: X (WXY)
X: abc up
X (abcde triangle sideways/down), very corrective
Y: agressive breakout to the Upside (corrective pattern is overI

https://www.dropbox.com/s/hzvq7qunibfmcnm/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2023.53.01.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ml3mqxtgz9bqovl/Screenshot%202019-04-29%2023.57.22.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=602

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5
Q

W618 szerint priceaction after 2018 Nov 16 break
FIB validation

https://www.dropbox.com/s/qgrw8xwtoqw9wir/Screenshot%202019-04-30%2000.05.41.png?dl=0

A

This X (WXY)
the FIB extension of the W with the X pullback >> gives Y at Fib 1.618 (fig)
after hitting Y at Fib 1.618 >> rejection (big red candle confirmatin) and hitting the 50 SMA W
it is like a big ABC: the C usually does not get to F1.618 >> if priceaction above > invalidated the bear scenario

https://www.dropbox.com/s/qgrw8xwtoqw9wir/Screenshot%202019-04-30%2000.05.41.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/c84yormyinis0ho/Screenshot%202019-05-03%2013.23.49.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=730

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6
Q

How to look for trends?
W618

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7
Q

How to put EW count into context?
Why is it important
W618

A

EW: needs to know if impulsive or corrective sequence >>
we need to know the trend
trends determined: SMA breakv, Pitchfork warning line break
fig example: looks raher like a corrective sequence due to lack of VOL, good response at the warning line (later change ?)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/n6p9pakfi68dy37/Screenshot%202019-05-04%2016.31.07.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI

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8
Q

Bullcount by W618 after 2018 Dec

A

W2 is usually not a triangle > alternative count
W3 expected to be 1.618 ext of W1 >> W3 going higher maybe to F2.618 ($6200) (legit Bull argument, but he does not prefer, somehow problems with the counting
not necessarily going long from there (overhead RES), even if we go above the PF warning line can be an overshoot like here bellow the medium line (weekly, M wick >>
we need to see M closes bellow/above
would wait for the pullback with W4 > only than take position

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4hhfc54o5lo836g/Screenshot%202019-05-03%2014.01.47.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/uf1lvl9pymcvic8/Screenshot%202019-05-03%2015.15.37.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=958

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9
Q

Signs of rolling over
W618

https://www.dropbox.com/s/91cfj44yhjvpelv/Screenshot%202019-05-04%2016.51.54.png?dl=0

A

He did not spec at this very moment (maybe what said prev), but showed to the rounded top (maybe)
Roll over like round top >> but actually shot up >>

https://www.dropbox.com/s/91cfj44yhjvpelv/Screenshot%202019-05-04%2016.51.54.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/s6fpmdqmm2n02u1/Screenshot%202019-05-04%2016.55.21.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=958

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10
Q

How do you trade this chart as daytrader?
Daniel4k

A

Break down >> sideways: paralell chanell
broke out upwards > came down to test the uptrendline of the paralell channel (confluence with swing FIB 382)> move up in a paalell channel consistantly
his chart is different, I guess he uses Bitmex on Finex??
now hit overhead RES, golden Pocket + HOR line
rejection candles
but no signals for weakness t short

https://www.dropbox.com/s/fe3ny3jgq5kjonz/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2020.58.10.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/u796eha5gjaj7p3/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2021.09.43.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/gDY2isn_MIE?t=312

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11
Q

How do you trade this BTC chart from EW perspective ?
FF

A

REF!

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12
Q

Priceaction appraching MA line, HOR line, FIB line
FF see fig

A

BTC on W got supported by 200 SMA W
bounced up > approaching 50 SMA > consolidation under, but not rejected and bounced down rather marlket participants accepting the price bellow a major MA
>>price acceptance, consolidation before the next move up !
price accepted bellow key level >> close short positions there, calm before the storm upwards
after the breakout can come back to retest > continue the breakout after

https://www.dropbox.com/s/r3b8byjpr150mca/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2021.45.50.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/tq9h1cidkxU?t=489

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13
Q

Bollinger Bands
FF see fig

A

Standard deviation of moves
medium line in the BB: 20 MA (great short term indcator)
he did not say why but BB on D indicates upside
if I remember well if we use the middle 20 MA line as a SUP >> upper line will be tested (or the other way downwards if RES)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/8epkibstixuqu17/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.04.32.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/tq9h1cidkxU?t=678

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14
Q

Hedge Funds what MAs they use?
FF

A

Often use 50 and 200 MAs >> but they are long term holders (not necessarily good strategy for a retail trader..)

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15
Q

What is the symbol of S&P 500 mini futures?
How to trade it from a daytrade perspective on 15M TF?
FF

A 
ES1! 
20 SMA on 15M very good trend indicator (certain indicators for certain TFs on an assetclass 
if you use as indicator when priceaction breaks it \>\> catch a good trend for a while

https://www.dropbox.com/s/m22se4b2dl9r1oo/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.07.54.png?dl=0

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16
Q

Oil Futures
FF

A

CL1! Crude Oil Futures NYMEX
20 SMA on 15M works fine too (for daytrading)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6zcl77wjse19o1v/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.13.02.png?dl=0

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17
Q

Most favourit MA of FF

A

50 EMA >> he likes it on 1H (not on 15M, not on 1D)
if you want to ride a stock for 3-10 days: 50 EMA on 1H
preferably on Stock, but might work on Futures too: see fig
see on gold (XAUUSD)
CL1!
NFLX (Netflix): moves violantly: much more tricky, but works

https://www.dropbox.com/s/y2jvqyas8zv2swo/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.17.53.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/6a5wgr5mlbl6vh8/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.18.41.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/crhjy3yoscqfnqr/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.22.14.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/tq9h1cidkxU?t=864

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18
Q

How to trade stocks for more than some weeks?
FF

A

Long term investor for Stocks: 6 weeks or longer trend confirmation: 8 EMA on W (maybe only D), but no other TFs !
NFLX fig
works well also with strong trends: CL1! fig
GE General Electric fig
the problem with MAs: quite lagging

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3fsum9iblcprvue/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.26.44.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/krl769s2bmw2cyd/Screenshot%202019-05-02%2022.31.01.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/tq9h1cidkxU?t=1219

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19
Q

When/how to use MAs?
FF

A

20 SMA on 15M for daytrading
8 EMA: on W when to enter into a trend for a long term position more than 6 weeks
50 EMA: 3-10-14 days Swings

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20
Q

MA trading: FF opinion

A

EW, FIB, VOL and HOR trendlines superior
MA secondary, because of too much lagging (he used BTC as example 5% down would have gotten out)
agree, lasd Krown he was proud to get out at 16k and lower levels
MA: big confirm, conservative style, but slow like fuck

https://youtu.be/tq9h1cidkxU?t=1360

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21
Q

Factor report

A

Pete Brandt’s $1M speculation trading account
“last time Factor’s benchmark weekly MA was in the current profile of turning from down to up was in Nov 2015 just as $BTC began its move from $340 to $19,800.”
account built on four pillers
CLASSICAL charting principles >> assymetrical trading opportunities on laveraged markets (Forex and Future markets particularly) (1)
Risk management: easy to make money, but hard to keep (2)
Process of market speculation itself; best practices, protocols, processes (3)
Human element (4).
Factor membership: $200/Q
he suggess relatively cost effective, try it for a year w/o trading >> just to learn
bonus gift: Trading Commodity Futures with Classical Chart Patterns $345 used and 885$ new on Amazon

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ov5e5s1kypoptb9/Factor%20MA%20W%20Bull%20turn.png?dl=0

https://www.peterlbrandt.com/

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23
Q

BTC big picture Alternative count

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4vx2zpe4njns247/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2010.35.00.png?dl=0

W618

A

Not his prefered count. Many people looks at it like this
if this is the case >> implication: it needs to correct all the price action so far >> takes a lot of time
fig shows the time of different retracement level based on FIB time (could be a relly long drawn out correction)
tipically W2 retracement would be 0.382 >> 2021

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4vx2zpe4njns247/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2010.35.00.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/xxeagzilsxb21uj/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2010.38.52.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=268

24
Q

Classical Fib extension ratios

W618

A

W3: 1.618F ext of W1
W5: 0.618F ext of W0 to W3
in case of BTC W5 often hyperextended

25
Q

BTC big picture count

W618

26
Q

BTC big picture count: if 20k was W3 wht is the Fib rel to W1

https://www.dropbox.com/s/l0ys4609sj9c61a/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.01.54.png?dl=0

W618

27
Q

BTC big picture count the reason why he calls it W3 on the fig

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0z9at1e2u790qx0/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.06.15.png?dl=0

W618

A

within this W3: the subW3 is the 1.618 ext of W1 and W5 is

and the top is again 17.9F ext of (from W0 to W3) here the W4 correction was a triangle >> the zero level is a bit above than I thought
17.9F << reoccuring target!

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0z9at1e2u790qx0/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.06.15.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/i1ahf1ild0eyoa3/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.08.31.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/24ekapims827elh/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.09.02.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=600

28
Q

BTC big picture count what could be a target for W5?

W618

29
Q

BTC big picture count: if W618 count is right when W4 bottom?

W618

A

based on Fib time extension from 2013 Nov Top (W1) to W2 (2015 bottom) to 2017 Dec Top >> W4 bottom is 2019 Feb!

30
Q

Interesting priceaction in 2011; BTC big picture count

https://www.dropbox.com/s/j069fpe231wytsb/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.33.36.png?dl=0

W618

A

similar setup as in 2017 May: broken down from a Descending triangle, started to move back up
a LOW VOLUME NODE was marked on the fig with the Ray tool (red dashed line)
tipically low vol nodes where the price goes back (to fill in the gap?) above the high Vol Node on VPVR is the RES
price came up here to low vol to test (actually more times)
this is what is going on now too in 2019 May: priceaction found RES around 5.8k
Initial targets are always Low Vol nodes, not the High Vol nodes (depends what range you iclude from the past I guess; Price gravitates into High Vol Nodes; Pricemagnet)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/j069fpe231wytsb/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.33.36.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/h2ilowuogowz2cm/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.39.06.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1158

31
Q

Where does priceaction go after 2011 capitulation?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/h2ilowuogowz2cm/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.39.06.png?dl=0

W618

A

Goes up, but does not reach the High Vol Node above on VPVR, but flows into the Low Vol Node range
I noticed that there is not a lot of history on the left >> be carefull what range to chose and what to include from the left!
Initial targets are always Low Vol nodes, not the High Vol nodes. (depends what range you iclude from the past I guess; Price gravitates into High Vol Nodes; Pricemagnet)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/h2ilowuogowz2cm/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2011.39.06.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1228

32
Q

Where does priceaction go after 2018 “capitulation”?

W618

A

It went into the LOW Vol Node range just like in 2011 >> what next?
notice, that no priceaction was included from the previous cycle, only this market cycle
including the previous market cycle data may alter VPVR distribution
Initial targets are always Low Vol nodes, not the High Vol nodes (depends what range you iclude from the past I guess)
it is $5800 now: if enough power to go further up >> easy reach to High Vol Aerea (6.4k here) and move to the next Low Vol Node above (7.1k)
Very omportant priceaction >> if convincingly coses above PF W Line and 50 MA W >> trend change, the bearmarket is over
wick can occur on higher TF on W or even M) >> Monthly close critical

once broken out of warning lines >> unusual to see LLs; we still have a chance here in 2018 May

https://www.dropbox.com/s/gqei64r00l4qt2i/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2014.25.41.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1228

33
Q

What is Pitch Fork Warning line?

W618

A

Warning line: Trendline Two standard deviations away from the medium line
if convincingly coses above PF W Line and main MA W >> trend change, the bearmarket is over
wick can occur on higher TF on W or even M) >> Monthly close critical (Alessio also underlined the increased probality of a trend by closing twice above the 21 EMA on M)

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1354

34
Q

BTC older EW count (WXY) by W618 and relationship to What is Pitch Fork Warning line

W618

35
Q

Mt. Gox crash

W618

A

2014 Feb
Mt. Gox was a bitcoin exchange based in Shibuya, Tokyo, Japan.[1] Launched in July 2010, by 2013 and into 2014 it was handling over 70% of all bitcoin (BTC) transactions worldwide, as the largest bitcoin intermediary and the world’s leading bitcoin exchange

36
Q

How PF captures BTC priceaction in 2014-2015

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ud2o6q5h48ggl3q/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2015.31.36.png?dl=0

W618

37
Q

How PF captures BTC priceaction in 2011-12

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3e6y6vxw7p5oain/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2015.47.11.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1822

A

Once PF broken and used as SUP when tested (twice)
once broken out of warning lines >> unusual to see LLs

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3e6y6vxw7p5oain/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2015.47.11.png?dl=0

38
Q

Where 2011 priceaction went down to?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/f3z8t4z2z6hdc4n/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2015.55.01.png?dl=0

W618

A

Retracement did not stop at 0.786F (today BTC equivalent is 3.2k) >> went to 0.94F (today BTC equivalent is 1.1k HOR Sup from previous market cycle Top)
could be another year or two

https://www.dropbox.com/s/f3z8t4z2z6hdc4n/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2015.55.01.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/to94q9k2p942ual/Screenshot%202019-05-05%2016.00.35.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/NXjyFekpAUc?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1822

39
Q
A
40
Q

Trend judging factors

W618

A

Pitchfork
50 SMA W (he does not trade based on that, but important sentiment guide) supporting indicator

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ktf0ynhqix1fp8o/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2019.46.29.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=206

41
Q

important sentiment guide to know the trend

W618

A

50 SMA W
he does not trade based on SMAs though
supporting indicator
once 50 SMA W gets broken > price often starts to trend

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ktf0ynhqix1fp8o/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2019.46.29.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=206

42
Q

How this orderblock determined on the fig?

https://www.dropbox.com/s/cyf43hnzejlgjyt/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2019.50.00.png?dl=0

W618

A

The upper and bottom lines were SUPs RESs at multiple ocasions

Volume Profile: major spike is in the middle of the Order Block! >> look for massive Vol drop on the profile (see on fig2 where he shows)
Low volume node: price spends very little time at this levels: they are RES and SUP levels
>> price bounces off them, rather than consolidate
High Vol nodes: where price consolidate

https://www.dropbox.com/s/cyf43hnzejlgjyt/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2019.50.00.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/adhzy21794zi3bs/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2019.54.39.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=365

43
Q

What low/high Vol Nodes represent on the Volume Profile?

W618

A

Low volume node: price spends very little time at this levels: they are RES and SUP levels
>> price bounces off them, rather than consolidate
High Vol nodes: where price consolidate >> spend more time there
High Volume nodes are in the middle of the order blocks

https://www.dropbox.com/s/adhzy21794zi3bs/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2019.54.39.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=422

44
Q

Where High Volume nodes are represented?

W618

A

High Volume nodes are in the middle of the order blocks

45
Q

How to determine BTC price target in 2019 May?

W618

A

Might be impulsive waves up, we could be at W3 >> but it surpassed already 1.618F level
>> could reach to F2.618: would confluence with the middle of the orderblock (High Vol Node, consolidation zone in the past), see red price tag
his higher TF view swiched > looks now rather impulsiv, broke out of PF warning line and above 50 SMA W

https://www.dropbox.com/s/q98t9kx8najywmd/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.03.10.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=507

46
Q

Subwave count of BTC in 2019 May 09

W618

A

% waves up, W2 did not correct too much, might be truncated >> W1 extension F1.618 id W3 (a bit overshot >> due to truncated W2?
W4: Runing Flat >> important implication: Bulls are in control
Tipically W4 retraces rather
W4 structure: A down, B: three ways up, C: comes back down (to F1.618, but not really retracement)

https://www.dropbox.com/s/7db5j7wk48exxl8/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.08.40.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/e21y9yd18qcjdxn/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.11.33.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=645

47
Q

What is tipical W4 behavior?

W618

A

Retracement, but in 2019 May W4 is a running flat >> shows Bull control

https://www.dropbox.com/s/e21y9yd18qcjdxn/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.11.33.png?dl=0

48
Q

How target W5 target?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ae7v5f6zsd5tq2s/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.19.50.png?dl=0

W618

A

Often 1:1 ratio between W1:W5
measurement: from bottom of W1 >> extension from from bottom of W4
here already surpassed (at 1.236 level already
another way to target W5: extension from W3 (0.618F extension of W3 from bottom of W4) see fig2 >> confluence with 2.618 ext of W1 from W2 bottom (red price tag and middle of orderblock)
$6250-6300

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ae7v5f6zsd5tq2s/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.19.50.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/65hlq700j5l17lp/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.23.22.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=708

49
Q

Where W4 typically retraces?

W618

A

F0.382 of W3 (retracement tool: starts from bottom > pulls to top see fig
if we reach here: $6300; from technical point of view overextended, but as time passes more and more gets engaged
not to FOMO in now though wait for >> retracement to F0.382 level $5100
complex what happens: Consensus coming: top industry members discuss progression

https://www.dropbox.com/s/hd1w8m7mdkloh5n/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.32.16.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=912

50
Q

Does PF support that the W3 is mpulsive in 2019 May?

W618

A

PF within W3: from the bottom of W1 to top of W1 >> down to W2 bottom
>> priceaction down to warning line > up to medium line > lower medium line as SUP > down to lower warning line > accumulation (completion of W4 as a runningg flat)
now ran up to lower medium line again consolidating, but HOR level not reject, rather broke above >> showing strength, very impulsive behaviour
W3 is rather impulsive wave up than a corrective C
there were many reasons for the bears to get agressive (Tether-Bitfinex lack of backup, Binance hack) > nothing stopped the bulls

https://www.dropbox.com/s/0lbepe84ew24q1j/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.54.20.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=1143

51
Q

Ripple count

W618

A

W2 very corrective (probably WXY; W: 3 waves down, X 3 waves up (looked runing flat to me?)3 waves down to the bottom of W2 < truncated, you see it with XRP, truncated > curved up bottom, not completely got what he said here )
major W3 contains a W4 with WXY: double bottom again (just like it was with major W2; double bottom truncation with XRP) see fig2
Now developing major W4 see fig3
major W4 contains a PF (a Discord member found), very helpful in the analysis
in W4: W (abc) down; X: running flat >> PF
governing priceaction very well
curved bottom developing, we could see a double bottom (Z) price might come down to the order block > retest > maybe upper warning line break (if break possible long positions)
BTC may not be ready to move up, could retrace more > XRP sideways > go up together
the black box can be drawn well from the M chart
blue channel from the two TOPs extended to the bottom: parallel channel >price might come down to test the blue line or might start to move up before reaching the blue line

https://www.dropbox.com/s/ijioeb4otgnwhz6/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2020.57.12.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/lmf38samwn10mo8/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2021.03.17.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/swht1qdm7mwhd7l/Screenshot%202019-05-09%2021.06.32.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/YCRIlfSGIRw?t=1300

52
Q

Notes/lessons (event summary) for myself about the trend at 2019 beginning

A

At the en of 2018 prepared the money buy selling appartment > wanted a prefect entry
BTC sterted to move down I realized, that I did not have exchange managment skills
I got it right only very late what to do > discovered the Youtube series by Deep lizard about Coinbase market operation; only created the learning file: Coinbase notes STOP LIMIT buy sell deeplizard Sunday, 16 December 2018
The day before was the bottom of the market after the break down occuring from Nov 14-15
Took a long time time to take notes/process/understand actually not ready untill Christmas (still not completely internalized!) options also confused me, I felt progress was hopelessly slow
Christmas time: relized the new C4D20 possibilities >> only studied C4D even after I came back, maybe at the begining of New Year too..
I thought the bounce was very mild on BTC, it will go down I will wait and buy at $2000 or $1000 (Hyperwave theory from Tyler)
I thought I would have a year or even more (“takes long time the markets to recover….” Everyone I really respected was bearish, made me lazy: Krown, JD Marshall, Tyler, Tone Vays reinforced everything, Kirby agressive idiot fights and lessons to the every Joe moonboys: it all made me sleep, I thought was impulsively fucked up in 2018 without understanding anything, now I just had to be patient
Apr 2 breakout was absolutely surprising (at least the scale), even though some analists anticipitated (maybe not the scale)
Jacob Canfield called for the Ascending triangle breakout, I thought it was and ascending triagle, I thought h got it wrong I even negatively commented on his video, but apologized later; Crypt Crew turned fomo-ish: do not miss out the opportunity of a lifetime, Credible Crypto called the botom, W618 also called the bottom > later corrective > changed to impulse bias again
After Apr 2 everyone and everyting got insane bullish, Tone Vay’s 5hrs podcast is the bottom in? after Apr 2 crashed through two important Res zones > later even Krown bullish, but so consciously, that I did not dare to do anything
Now bellow the $6300 crazy Res zone > I do not know what would be the consequences of were pushed through it by an again orchestrated short sqeeze, Daniel4K, Philakone, W618 and many wrning for the RES above
do I have a sort of insensitivity towards the changes around me and to adjust accordingly similarly, with people > so much unpopularity with almost everyone around me
I would listen to things which would make me calm by reinforcing my biases and taking away anxiety

53
Q

Notes/lessons for myself about the trend at 2019 beginning

A

When seeing the breakdown in Dec I realized that I could not buy the bottom even if I wanted (for abounce), due to no market money management skills
Very slow inefficient study, interrupted by Christmas gap with C4D20 fields innovations
Slleping through the grounding up phase, not realizing the signs
I did not even know what to look for properly, no efficient programmed structured learning
beacause of the distance from the market though > study biology/work related >> rediscovered the Brainscape tool, but actual study with it only after April breakout > understand Market money management and very simple option basic basicss a bit..

54
Q

Signs of change I did not pay attention to when trend shifted at 2019 beginning

A

Ascending triagle (I even embarrased myself with a bad comment to Jacob Canfield
A smaller bull wedge was already broken up before in Feb
EMAs on 4H were lined up, even consensio started to line up a bit
Testing more and more the above Hor Res (part of the asc triangl pattern) with slowly increasing Vol > grounding up bottom
We were after a violant break down from 6k 50% > no big Vol nodes in between, but a great gap >>Very important implication > if such a triangle breaks after up >> huge potential to the upside (last year I naively thought if I could somehow double the money from 3k to 6k before the actual bull run, it looked inconceivable, but it could have happened, but I havent managed even a single %)
RSI: very steadily rising, STOCHs uptrends on D, on W very dramatic changes, RSI above it’s MA
STOCH RSI very well supporting it
OBV and VFI quite ground up from Feb on 3D
The Vol with the breakouts were great
Rounding base, Adam and Eve pattern, Cup&Handle pattern characteristics
Golden cross on D (but priceaction was away from the cross, not pulled in)
200SMA W SUP remained, broke above 50 SMA W > sup
D 21 EMA Sup
closed above 21 EMA M, actually closed above 50 EMA M in 2019 March
OBV on M rising, clear breakpoint in 2019 Jan (bounced back an held 2018 Sep Sup

https://www.dropbox.com/s/54sy1hyfymd5sxx/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2011.07.34.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/5nl7lu771g2dsws/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2011.09.13.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/o5ats7oozv5zqe3/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2011.13.57.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/okyuayyxva1wbhk/rBYg9Osk.png?dl=0

55
Q

W618: how he asseses BTC 2019 Apr 29 on the fig bear view

A

After 2018 Dec breakdown > good chance that this a correction pattern: main Y was completed in 2018 Dec >> either impulse up and bull market (maybe less likely) or after 2019 spring is a correction (more likely): main X >> might be another Y leg down (not necassarily creating a new bottom!)
Currentmain X: WXY, where X (abcde) triangle > Y Up << basicaly ABC and C usually not longer than 1.618 extension of A (we should be around at the end with Y up)
Y is also at the outer border of the Shiff-pitchfork down and at 50 SMA W >> correction downwards if this a man X corrective
change to bullish sentiment if break above PF and 1.618 ext of A (W on the fig)
now it looks we have rejection candles at $5500 but Japanese holiday week, Short sqweeze, bull sentiment >> can change, actually we broke above 5800 after a few days with good VOL)
the corrective argument was greatly supported by the lack of VOL

https://www.dropbox.com/s/jfjl62p13w5nypx/Screenshot%202019-05-03%2013.08.41.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/c84yormyinis0ho/Screenshot%202019-05-03%2013.23.49.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=876

56
Q

W618: how he asseses BTC 2019 Apr 29 on the fig BULL view

A

not prefered scenario; see fig
W3 expected to be 1.618 ext of W1 >> W3 going higher to F2.618 ($6200) ?
not necessarily going long from there (overhead RES),
even if we go above the PF warning line can be an overshoot like here bellow the medium line (weekly, M wick >> we need to see M closes bellow/above

https://www.dropbox.com/s/4hhfc54o5lo836g/Screenshot%202019-05-03%2014.01.47.png?dl=0

https://www.dropbox.com/s/uf1lvl9pymcvic8/Screenshot%202019-05-03%2015.15.37.png?dl=0

https://youtu.be/XFUtrQrR0TI?t=940

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