Moon, Kirby, Tone Ways 2019 May 05 Flashcards
More complex picture about NVT by Kirby
NVT break down > through its MA line and TRENDline > can come back up again retest > consolidation and fail (at leat 2018 Sep-Oct-Nov
https://www.dropbox.com/s/tinouf1z476pm7e/Screenshot%202019-04-26%2008.50.01.png?dl=0
BTC in the light of NVT RSI priceaction by Kirby 2019 Apr end
NVT shows local TOP, priceaction: wedgy priceaction
> breakout down; double TOP on total market Cap , already a mini correction RSI broke the RES line for the HLs
>> correction: it could be a pullback, to the zones of previous RES tops
> can bounce back up and rally again, once the RSI cooled off, NVT resets itself and tunrns back up again
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5pi5fmqwm9p6swp/Screenshot%202019-04-26%2009.01.19.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oto9z7cfts6zkzt/Screenshot%202019-04-26%2009.06.51.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ndn392uhl1bvs72/Screenshot%202019-04-26%2009.08.47.png?dl=0
Moon analyses 2019 Apr 26
BTC in Up Channel/wedge: uptrendline and HOR matching > RES at 5500 rejection
Bearish DIV RSI (the correction not neces. immidiately though)
Some considered ascending triangle broke upwards, but big enough cause VOL not enough
later break Downwrads > 5350 RES did not hold
RSI LL lower trendline until holds > OK, if breaks dow momentum change
we just had a Gold Cross on D, but in 2015 it also consided with a local TOP and the test of W EMA Ribbon > rejection then and maybe now too
ALT coins suffering as BTC climbing up, he things they are still overvalued after the 90% correction, everyone should have 80% BTC
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5yqhco4og0we02i/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2017.37.00.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zaluqq7qyg9pkfy/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2017.45.28.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/j3huvpkdum8fd3y/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2018.06.16.png?dl=0
https://youtu.be/eJmdRRQLtTA?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl
n
Detect languageAfrikaansAlbanianAmharicArabicArmenianAzerbaijaniBasqueBelarusianBengaliBosnianBulgarianCatalanCebuanoChichewaChinese (Simplified)Chinese (Traditional)CorsicanCroatianCzechDanishDutchEnglishEsperantoEstonianFilipinoFinnishFrenchFrisianGalicianGeorgianGermanGreekGujaratiHaitian CreoleHausaHawaiianHebrewHindiHmongHungarianIcelandicIgboIndonesianIrishItalianJapaneseJavaneseKannadaKazakhKhmerKoreanKurdishKyrgyzLaoLatinLatvianLithuanianLuxembourgishMacedonianMalagasyMalayMalayalamMalteseMaoriMarathiMongolianMyanmar (Burmese)NepaliNorwegianPashtoPersianPolishPortuguesePunjabiRomanianRussianSamoanScots GaelicSerbianSesothoShonaSindhiSinhalaSlovakSlovenianSomaliSpanishSundaneseSwahiliSwedishTajikTamilTeluguThaiTurkishUkrainianUrduUzbekVietnameseWelshXhosaYiddishYorubaZulu
AfrikaansAlbanianAmharicArabicArmenianAzerbaijaniBasqueBelarusianBengaliBosnianBulgarianCatalanCebuanoChichewaChinese (Simplified)Chinese (Traditional)CorsicanCroatianCzechDanishDutchEnglishEsperantoEstonianFilipinoFinnishFrenchFrisianGalicianGeorgianGermanGreekGujaratiHaitian CreoleHausaHawaiianHebrewHindiHmongHungarianIcelandicIgboIndonesianIrishItalianJapaneseJavaneseKannadaKazakhKhmerKoreanKurdishKyrgyzLaoLatinLatvianLithuanianLuxembourgishMacedonianMalagasyMalayMalayalamMalteseMaoriMarathiMongolianMyanmar (Burmese)NepaliNorwegianPashtoPersianPolishPortuguesePunjabiRomanianRussianSamoanScots GaelicSerbianSesothoShonaSindhiSinhalaSlovakSlovenianSomaliSpanishSundaneseSwahiliSwedishTajikTamilTeluguThaiTurkishUkrainianUrduUzbekVietnameseWelshXhosaYiddishYorubaZulu
Text-to-speech function is limited to 200 characters
Options : History : Feedback : Donate Close
Tether market Cap vs.BTC
With Tether market Cap increase BTC price increases.
learnt from Dvir Oren and filBfilB
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kbcovfz058oz4t2/Screenshot%202019-04-26%2008.23.35.png?dl=0
Out of the bearmarket fractal similar to 2015
learnt from Dvir Oren and CL at @CL207
(fig and updated fig)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k4sltfo1374u5y0/Screenshot%202019-04-26%2008.31.30.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/vktk2dn974ceemm/D5Hb1QBUcAAI5N3.png_large.png?dl=0
Metrics about cryptos by Kirby
Price, Marketcap, Transaction value,
Hashrate, Difficulty, Block info;
even when Bitfinex withdrew from the coldwallet
https://bitinfocharts.com/bitcoin/wallet/Bitfinex-coldwallet
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
Crypto Fear & Greed Index
high values are Greedy, when massive price drop >> FEAR
is it greedy before? and than drops when sudden move down, or already before?
https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/#fng-history
Kirby BTC 2019 Apr 27
After 2018 Nov 16 breakdown RES points were hit several time at 4200 >
from Feb 08 impulse up >> more and higher Lows, but could not break $4200, ascending triangle >
Apr 2: huge up candle (maybe not organic szerinte, very convincing VOL though) > smashed through two RESs:
$4200 and $4600 > Wedgy priceaction,
reached the 5550 RES > broke out downwards, but have not reached the bottom of the wedge yet (4900 sonslidation range) it can hold as SUP for further UP (can retest the 5600 range and fail/UP.
retracement can go down even to GoldP 4200-4100
> RSI cool off (fig)
NVT crossed its TL > if backtest up and fails > further down
https://www.dropbox.com/s/umehovd80les9iw/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2014.22.11.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/wg9l8x5les8tg6m/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2014.24.24.png?dl=0
Bbas understanding from 2018 Dec helyzet kep on 2D
- *4200** up RES for priceaction for long, but several tests
- *7 & 30 MAs RES,** but on Feb 08 impulse up >> changed, price above
>> became SUP, priceaction rounding UP, Apr 02 huge impulse UP, smashing through 4200, 4600 RESs, looked fabricated, but great VOL and others do not mind if orchestrated > formed the structure >. wedgy after and break out downwards but not much
NVT signal slowly curving up, above the MA used as SUP, but reached the TOP at the end of Apr
RSI very nice HLs from 2018 Nov, uses its MA as SUP > now broke under MA
STOCHs and STOCH RSI perfect signals for move up on 2D
the Green BEAR governing trendline of 2018 was used as very strong SUP
Green line broken 2018 July, SUP in 2018 Aug, 2018 Dec
from 5600 Top pulled back already to F0.236, can pull back further dow still bullish (to $4200 golden pocket GP)
sztem a masik FIB from the swing more bottom is even better: $4100 GP >> if falls bellow to the previous consolidation zone (zone before the Apr 02 impulse) >> BEARISH
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oyuf6heix6dx491/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2013.46.16.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/bugqekiaazslacr/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2014.08.55.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k2va5473awnxf1f/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2014.25.18.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/sd7e7b816zhiav3/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2013.21.53.png?dl=0
BTC Shorts on Finex meaning by Kirby and Bbas
When shorts go down to the red box area (fig), it is a sustained balance, footing area
When shorts move up > can bring down the price
(some people thing that it is rather the opposite because the majority will be wrong/sucked), but when they reach a critical top zone > can be sqeezed
2019 Apr end, shorts on basic level, respect, boomed up > 10% mov dow in priceaction according to Kirby
but when shorts high > Short sqeeze trick done as well to f.up people, at the time of max shorts often price breakout UP and max shorts just before the Rallys, I can also see that when shorts are low > price drop
but NOT always, no garantee, especially choppy markets are difficult
https://www.dropbox.com/s/08qpejuqv5gck8n/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2014.40.22.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/w5cedfzpb0gwacw/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2015.03.02.png?dl=0
Lindy effect
a theory that the future life expectancy of some non-perishable things like a technology or an idea is proportional to their current age, so that every additional period of survival implies a longer remaining life expectancy.
The origin of the term can be traced to Albert Goldman and a 1964 article he had written in The New Republic titled “Lindy’s Law’.[2] The term Lindy refers to Lindy’s delicatessen in New York, where comedians “foregather every night at Lindy’s, where … they conduct post-mortems on recent show business ‘action’”. In this article, Goldman describes a folkloric belief among New York City media observers that the amount of material comedians have is constant, and therefore, the frequency of output predicts how long their series will last:
Mandelbrot (1982)
Taleb (2007) and 2012
The Lindy Effect “… allows us to figure out how time and things work without quite getting inside the complexity of time’s mind.” Things are non-living objects like religion, technology, etc… Time behaves similar to disorder/entropy, and things that gain from disorder are what Taleb calls ‘antifragile.’” So things that have been in existence for a long period of time can be considered more robust/antifragile, i.e., more likely to continue to survive, than new things that haven’t passed the test of time[7]. Given this, the Lindy Effect can be used to distinguish random survivors from non-random survivors and gauge the fragility of artificial thing which provides information that can help with decision making. For example, companies that have been around the longest and are still relatively “healthy” will last the longest, and vice versa. Investors can use the Lindy effect to narrow down their choice of stocks to the most durable companies.
Crypto Crew on W 2019 Apr end
20 SMA: governing bear trendline in 2018 from Feb (just like in 2014)
broke above: 2019 March-Apr > hit 50 SMA W, rejected (like in previous market cycle 2015)
local top then (probably now too..);
RSI 55-60 RES on W in 2018 (SUP in 2016-17) >> now might reject again at 60
https://www.dropbox.com/s/wc74oqce1oatodd/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2018.40.58.png?dl=0
Crypto Crew on M 2019 Apr end
Governing trendlines in 2014 and 2018 26 degree both > now broken on M 2019 Apr
20 SMA on M: in 2014 took 330 days to get under, in 2018 the same; broke above it after same time; same price movement 89% from the top
higher greed than in 2018 again 68% > only buy when greed is low
https://www.dropbox.com/s/g7bxhn5n5dvkqvy/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2018.49.24.png?dl=0
Crypto Crew on W the bear trendline confluence with what after the Death cross in 2014 ad 2019
Priceaction dow: 2018 Nov 15 DC and price down > 20 SMA same with the bear trendline (yellow and blue on W fig)
when broke above it again > rejection from the 50 SMA W
we can still fall back to the blue Bear trendline
https://www.dropbox.com/s/qnwaw46tn9jlqmk/Screenshot%202019-04-27%2018.57.01.png?dl=0
Crypto Crew on Bull Market criterias
Gold Cross on daily 50/200 SMA, but this is only first stage >
we need to hold 200 SMA D as SUP
hold 20 SMA W as SUP (close above it)
