ALPHA- Exhaustion notes Nick Core Flashcards
Safety symbols
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Half moon and risk line , can be switched off
often after the 9 of the traditional TD sequential > trend would go on begins another count > taken away from this indicator to simplify
after finishing the traditonal 9 in TD >> this show half moons to pay attention: but it is not sign for trend reversal
https://www.dropbox.com/s/xkk9samz5ay9wam/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2020.16.18.png?dl=0
What the half moon mean?
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
It is a safety symbol, can be swiched off. Not trend reversal, just finishing the traditonal 9 in TD >> this show half moons to pay attention: but it is not sign for trend reversal
Measures the prior 6 candles’ size, position, relation among those candles etc >> shows that the trend is continuing until the critical parameters met
moon: in a downtrend: blue, in an uptrend yellow
Risk line
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
It is a safety symbol, can be swiched off.
Can be used as a stop loss for an entry
5 min chart
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Not for overall analysis >> to many faulty movements, signals, crap
Nick uses sometimes as entry for daytrade
Where is painting the candles
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Tipic. 4th candle starts get painted >> more and more white as the trend progresses (from red to white in a downtrend; from green to white in uptrend
maybe the 7th candle full white >> than moon after (maybe on the 7-9-10)
Moon: pay attention, but the trend is on
When the moon disappears > new trend started
Trend end
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Circle (pink in downtrend, blue in uptrend)
Stop sign in the identified trend > does not work out as expected
On the fig (left side) after the Moon two green candles > uptrend starts wth the 3rd (blue nem tom miert es nyillal jelolt)
weaknesss in the trend or CHOP >> failed trend > labeled with a circle
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2bkmbgn9ilgxab9/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2020.45.08.png?dl=0
What is the situation on this chart on the left side?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/g72jrym7kaumysy/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2020.51.56.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
The trend started after the white candles with the moon.
Starts with red candle (downtrend) the 3rd starts to fade out, the arrow confirms the trend > fading out, but the 7th candle show problems
>>weakness in the trend > stop circle with pink
the remaining candles still painted, because the downtrend was in effect, but the weakness was pointed out >> close position there, take profit and move on
this Stop signals often come on the 7th candle
https://www.dropbox.com/s/g72jrym7kaumysy/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2020.51.56.png?dl=0
What is the situation on this chart on the right side?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4v8k1xhnkmet3yz/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2020.58.53.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Upternd starts with the green candle >> the 3rd in the raw is confirmed with an arrow (blue and the candle is also stained with blue showing the begining of the trend) (2 after each other > trend)
>>starts to fade out as the trend moves up
weakness in the trend labelled with circle (blue) << this is again the 7th where weakness seen in the trend
the next two candles are red, because the price moved already down
so when circle >> wekness in the trend > close poition/profit taking
actually the red candle came down to the pink risk line
later in the example there was a further upside >> the indicator is not perfect, sensitive weakness label > you can switch the function out: option > Trend end off
You can utilizea tsrategy by just using the trend beginning function
https://www.dropbox.com/s/n7i0fubi70pxoq0/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.06.47.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/4v8k1xhnkmet3yz/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2020.58.53.png?dl=0
Agressive trend end
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Looks for more risky >> more agressive ending
For more experienced traders > can take a bit more risk
They found that most trends beginning to exhaust at the 7th candle (crypto, stocks, currency pairs too) >> the indicator watches around the 7th candle already
if you turn on “Unconfirmed trend end” or rather “Agressive trend end” >> looks rather around the end of 9th/10th candle
will pop up early if begins to sense trend end/weakening
sometimes Trend end & Agressive trend end > both sense at the same place
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7w4cxit3dtgvvds/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.13.37.png?dl=0
Trend end & Agressive trend end differenc
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Trend end & Agressive trend end > both sense at the same place
sometimes the Agressive trend will sense it later: see the figs as example
the agressive trend gives the circle signal two candlesaway to the right side > in this exaple even better exit option
this option looks for more risky >> more agressive ending
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d5eq0jnbcvl3tg2/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.30.51.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/kk07rudjxbmlazr/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.30.29.png?dl=0
Unconfirmed trend
https://www.dropbox.com/s/ar2zxb3e02do6vg/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.35.25.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
For very experienced traders > can take a bit more risk
You need to enable the otion bellow (“Agressive trend end” to make it work
Looks for two candles based on their positioning and szing at the end of a trend
gives those additional down arrows (see on the fig)
he pointed his mouse onto a false signal on the picture (the other on the righ is also fals signal)
ez zavaros mint szar
looks for 2 candles based on the positioning, sizing of (usually) 6 candles prior > depends on the exhaustion
he would not base his trades on the uncofirmed trends
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jt1qn6skpe69wlu/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.37.43.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/68t2pkim740xbs4/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.40.26.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/o0nptq29p3kg1qy/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.15.10.png?dl=0
Confirmed trend vs Unconfirmed trend
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Confirmed trend only paints, when the prior trend exhausted itself (starts with blue) see fig
Unconfirmed trend would paint however the prior candles ended see arrow on the 2nd fig
in the example the prior 2 candles before the arrow (Unconfirmed trend signal) are under the last trend >> got labelled with much less strict parameters (without the need of a prior trend exhaustion)
I guess it gives much more setups for very experienced traders
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6p557qfnsli9p7a/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.48.09.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/jfvt8am9hec6saq/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2021.45.35.png?dl=0
vHow to use with other indicators
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Never use alone
Volume more important espec. in trending markets (now sideways)
Group1: priceaction indicators (maybe BB, Ichimoku and MAs and MACD
2: oscillators (STOCHs, RSI, Momentum indic.)
3.: Volume (CMF, OBV, ADX (not vol indic but confirms OBV and CMF)
4: others, no details provided
Nick not use much MAs why?
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Ichimoku instead: advanced series of MAs clear picture
his settings: 20, 60, 120, 30
What is the downcurve on the Ichimoku on the fig?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/p63nx4ih74b8jn1/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.06.08.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Now priceaction in equilibrium > later comes up and than down >> why this down pressure? >> Ichimoku responds to th prior candles down
His settings are 26/30 > measures 30 candles right to see which candles it responds to
https://www.dropbox.com/s/p63nx4ih74b8jn1/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.06.08.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/3bmbsclvd3kyjgb/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.10.33.png?dl=0
What to read out from this Imoku example?
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Equilibrium
Baseline is bellow the conversion line: Bullish but not bullish positioning to kumo
we would need to see it above the KUMO and priceaction above that >> Ichimoku neutral here
https://www.dropbox.com/s/wowrnpy9cm0oeku/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.10.55.png?dl=0
Bollinger bands notes about the priceaction
https://www.dropbox.com/s/wowrnpy9cm0oeku/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.10.55.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Candle rather on the top of BBs
not a lot of weight on the BB positioning (because it can go on for long), but indicates that might need to come down lower >> in line with the exhaustion indicator showing the trend started to get exhausted (moons)
BB: tipically used for visualizing the squeez of the bands >> mjor move is imminent (direction is uncertain)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/wowrnpy9cm0oeku/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.10.55.png?dl=0
What MACD shows in the context of exhaustion indicat?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zv6r2ai70i5lviz/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.28.04.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Histograms slows down >> in accord with exhaust ind (ExI)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/zv6r2ai70i5lviz/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.28.04.png?dl=0
What oscillators show in the context of ExI?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k9ei1botnzth6l4/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.29.57.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
STOCHs very tight on the top ranges
RSI not quite in the oversold territory
Momenum indic: still good strength
overall: on the ExI the ed is not confirmed either >> sill more upside
overall with other indicators: Chop with bullish bias, once exhausted >> correction
https://www.dropbox.com/s/k9ei1botnzth6l4/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.29.57.png?dl=0
What Vol shows in the context of ExI?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mzvh1ilxv4bnmyw/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.34.58.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Actually we need to go to different TFs and confirm
on this 4HR TF:
slight neg DIV on CMF, but CMF is not very good when price ranges >> rather rely on OBV.
now OBV seems to be printing HH > OBV good (middle green line), when moon disappears from ExI (end of uptrend) we would need to see that the trendline would be broken down
ADX at the bottom (red line): Flat >> still ranging
at the end the uptrend will finish >> the question if CHOP or downtrend >> Vol indicators show
https://www.dropbox.com/s/mzvh1ilxv4bnmyw/Screenshot%202019-05-10%2022.34.58.png?dl=0
Priceaction routine
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Start W, with all 4 groups of indicators
W, 3D, D, 12H, 6H, 4H, 2H, 1H (if Swing trader)
if daytrader: down to 15min
take notes about the DIVs, exhaustion etc >> compare different TFs >> find confluences in 15-30-60 min
if Bearish Div on smaller TFs and Pos Div on higher TFs >> smaller downswing than Upmove expected
seems like lot of work > but need to see the overall pic of the market
later as the skills develop can get through very quickly
multiple TFs > accuracy
Priceaction on BTC D 2019 March
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0t4laj3rnqgp7x7/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.32.26.png?dl=0
my hindsight understanding as well
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Break down> an impulse up (on the left side) > this attempt was rejected at 4.1k level > but bounced back from roughly the middle of the swing > new attempt rejected again, on the same Top level (not LH)
>> greater pull back, but created a HL at 3.5k) (the whole structure looks like a falling wedge) > actually broke up
> broke out with W5 impulses, targeting the top again at 4.1k > rejection on the to
consolidation above 21EMA D and critical Hor RES (very important
>> not HH so far on the big picture, but continous attempt
pull back, consolidation << again on previous R
VOL: started to curve up from left to right
Priceaction nicely and slowly curving upwards
HISTs mainly green ticks throughout the whole period
21/55 EMA cross on D
EMAs 4H > lined up, swan out (compressed now on the consolidation but not changed order
OBV amazing support for all of these
priceaction populated an ascendingtriangle area >> multiple attempts to break out with great VOL sup and HLs
in the meantimes Network momentum and other BTC indicators aso showing rise
https://www.dropbox.com/s/cpkaq2l078g6vfb/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.18.32.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0t4laj3rnqgp7x7/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.32.26.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6ue76wubv45a2gx/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.43.16.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/cpkaq2l078g6vfb/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.18.32.png?dl=0
We are in this context see pic; 2019 March >> what Ichimoku suggest?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/imd7c6ilhg1crnn/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.51.19.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Good context for the breakout up
IchiM conversion line is above the candle > candle close above would be ideal for the breakout (for an impulse up)
Oscillators give good chance for an impulse up cam on Apr 2
after the W5 > oscillators in extreme condition > we need a period of relaxation
https://www.dropbox.com/s/yohzulsydfi1jzr/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.54.17.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/852mzz19kezjcpp/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.00.13.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/z7bv1q8s4b1e4db/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.06.36.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/imd7c6ilhg1crnn/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2010.51.19.png?dl=0
CMF looking weak on the fig, while other indicators showing positive action. Why?
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
CMF default is 20 (examines 20 candles back in time) >> could show weakness in ranging markets
if Chopy priceaction, ranging markets
in this 20 candle range > only a few hundred $ move up > CMF showing pressure
when Chopy priceaction, ranging markets > prefer OBV over CMF
OBV does not have inputs on it, goes back to the begining of time >> more accurate reading in sideways CHOP markets
https://www.dropbox.com/s/564vczsjemsebvr/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.11.10.png?dl=0
What VOL indicator to use in sideways market?
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
prefer OBV over CMF
OBV does not have inputs on it, goes back to the begining of time >> more accurate reading in sideways CHOP markets
What could a problem with CMF indicator?
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Sideways priceaction
CMF default input is 20 (examines 20 candles back in time) >> could show weakness in ranging markets prefer OBV over CMF
OBV does not have inputs on it, goes back to the begining of time >> more accurate reading in sideways CHOP markets
Why to expect breakout here?
https://www.dropbox.com/s/g7n86woc3h5ipdd/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.21.36.png?dl=0
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
What does he expect on 2019 Macr 9
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Bottom is forming >> his confirmation is up in the 6.3 range
Expect Choping between the two areas for months
Many Bull/Beartraps
every time we come down to the bottom of the range >> shorts pile on >> squeezed out > rallies
he expects to be bouncing in the area on the figure for quite a while
https://www.dropbox.com/s/upg97ns7ojta8lw/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.23.25.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/99ta1v6kby62fof/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.27.27.png?dl=0
Why the bottom is in
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
Not much details, but the signs on the oscillators on M, 21D, W
STOCH, RSI, MOM
https://www.dropbox.com/s/u65tgk4h0mxhvke/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.40.49.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/5m53nngbixam2ws/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.46.29.png?dl=0
https://www.dropbox.com/s/g6kcroct0i455ff/Screenshot%202019-05-11%2011.51.20.png?dl=0
TD sequential theory
Nick Core Alpha Exhaustion
If a candle within a trend is higher (or lower in the case of a bear trend) than the fourth candle back then the trend continues. By Tom Demark’s theory the ninth candle is typically where the trend reverses and one must watch for a potential entry on a capital shift.
