trading workbook set of considerations rules Flashcards
EMA Ribbon across different timeframes
there is a (up) trend channel on 15m TF >
ribbon holds up (every time when hitting the bottom bounce back up) > until does NOT = breaks down, out of the ribbon > can be an indication of the break of the entire trend > switch to a higher TF:
1h > follow how it goes there, to see when it breaks downwards, when it breaks out of that ribbon channel > step up to a higher TF
Moon
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1d3auq6aeclqj36/Screenshot%202019-04-12%2023.33.46.png?dl=0
How to manage Swing trade based on MAs
Golden cross: 55/200 EMA (4H)?
8/13/21/55/100/200 EMAs FAN out on the right order; example:
2019 Feb: BTC 200 EMA had been RES for priceaction for long time > breakout UP > changed the order of MAs but not much FAN out > 2nd BO: FAN out: BUY SIGNAL > 3rd BO but imm break downwards: not much, so order not changed, but MAs sqeezed >> BO > FANout again;
Philakone https://youtu.be/6c03-l_9VAQ?t=196
How to manage Swing trade based on MACD and FIB
2018 Nov 14 (6300) - 2018 Dec 15 (3100) BTC selloff >> swing high/low;
2019 Apr breakout back to the 0.618F of swing high/low; (12H and 4H TFs)
candles: long wicks up some started, spinning top candle,
MACD histogram downtick (4H);
RSI divergence downwards (4H) >> warning signs;
spinning top candle
long wicks both UP/DOWN,
can be Bull/Bear both,
both the bulls and the bears tried to push, but neither managed to hold >> reversal candle (if at the bottom in a downtrend >> BULL; if at the top in an uptrend >> BEAR);
First real HH on BTC after 2018 BearMarket by Kirby
2019 Apr 2: definitive, big breakout
it was a further UP after weeks of up rally with great VOL;
ascending triangle like consolidatin from 2018 Dec 15;
still in overall bearish structure, but already broken two important RES lines with the same move up: 4200 and 4500-600 > will hold as SUP?;
3 keylines to end the baermarket: 4200, 4500 and 6000, but not enough confirmation for bearmarket end;
Kirby
Kirby MA W in 2018 Apr
200 MA on W: twice bounced up already (in 2015 the bounce up was the end of the bearmarket); but bearish cross of 50/100 SMA W (in 2019 Feb) and 50MA comes rapidly downwards to be tested.. https://youtu.be/-7rlmrrnczo?t=371; Kirby
Kirby MA D right after the 2019 Apr breakout UP
BULLish cross on 50/100 MA D >> better look than weekly; above the 200 MA on D << last time over a year ago!
Kirby
Kirby after breakout behaviour important how the breakout can create room for movements
breakout up > hit a top > correction down > move back up but but only test the old RES so this move can not go beyond the previous H to create a HH >> will test downwards to the down RES box (0.618 level -of 6300 to 3100 breakdown- now); untill we consolidate above it and use it as SUP > still BULLish since we broke the BEAR structure >> untill we stay above it is fine: measure the diff between the up RES box and down SUP: 20% in 2019 Apr > if bouncing up and down amazing trading opportunity https://youtu.be/-7rlmrrnczo?t=520; Kirby
Transaction related info
The average number of transactions per block << new ATH in 2019 Apr
<< on blockchain.com
Moon
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions-per-block?timespan=all
Block for BTC
Blocks are files where data pertaining to the Bitcoin network is permanently recorded. A block records some or all of the most recent Bitcoin transactions that have not yet entered any prior blocks. Thus a block is like a page of a ledger or record book.
Google trends
Google trends search for bitcoin: perfect sell/buy monthly signals.
Kirby
https://youtu.be/3bib5wHwuHk?t=1083
STOCH RSI on W
STOCH RSI trendline governing force for priceaction for 900 ? days;
Crypto Crew Univ
https://youtu.be/xStxjNwFlUI?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1530
MA on W how to judge BULL vs BEAR market
20 SMA W
SUP in BullM
Res in BearM
20 SMA W if break out with decisive VOL!! 21 EMA W??;
moon
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=480
which MA was RES/SUP on the bearmarket at the beginning of 2019
200 EMA W strong Res in BearM 2018 Dec-2019 March ; in 2019 Apr about to break up above
200 SMA W SUP in BearM 2018 Dec-2019 March
moon
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=530
Volume decline difference (BitStamp, Coinbase, Bitfinex)
BitSTAMP, Coinbase, (Bitfinex) declining Vol with incr price in 2019 March,
Binancenot much,BITMEX not really;
moon
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=688
good marker for sell in 2018 bearM
RSI W: in consolidation period (2018 July-Nov: BTC above 6000)
RSI W: in consolidation period (2018 July-Nov: BTC above 6000) > weekly RSI on a SUP line > after turning into RES: 2019 coming back to retest > brutal break above in 2019 Apr
Krown not an RSI person, but still prefers to BolingerBands;
Krown
BTC CME Futures
More weight on CME than on Spot markets, the question where CME closes w/r/t spots > gap filling;
Krown
Weekend priceaction
not convincing, not by the profs, Futures are closed for the weekends; CME more important how it closes on Friday > weekend Bullish priceaction would be less important;
Krown
Rising wedge
Typically implies bearish nature (Vol signature declining) and bearish divergence or RSI formation (LHs vagy vmi wedgy like formation jobbra keskenyedo); 2 days after this there was a huge inpulse up on BTC 2019 Apr 02
Krown
Beartrap candle Krown
Candle bellow the SUP (Trendline) with very low VOL ( Immidiately bought up next day) Beartrap; usually countertrend coming soon;
Krown
Holding SUP but rejected on the 200 SMA on 4H: what to think?
look at STOCH:
if 4H STOCH up > more chance to break up through (around RES and just turn around the STOCHs > good sign);
Krown
around the RES what to think
priceaction around RES
if the STOCHs just turn around > good sign;
Krown
RSI (D) in consolditation period
if RSI in bearish neutral zone in consolditation period > rather bearish consolidation
Krown
nagy erofeszites and kis eredmeny > nem tul biztato; Krown
RSI (W) in consolidation period is increasing but price little increase
(still there was a huge breakout up in 2019 Apr 02)
GBTC priceaction effect on BTC
GBTC leads and precipitates Spot prices; Krown
MA
governing RES for BTC
from 2018 Feb
10 SMA on 2W
governing RES for BTC
2018 Feb - 2019 March (breakout above),
no open and close above it; 2019 March first time again to open/close above! > new behavior;
but 21/50 EMA 2W crossed down recently 2019 Apr;
Krown
21/50 EMA 2W cross down
bad sign; getting away > more divergence from each other > momentum even greater very bad sign;
Krown
2019 March-Apr price action on MAs
Krown
10 SMA on 2W open/close above + 21/50 EMA 2W crossed down: strongly bearish, but test above the upper RES (in this case 89 EMA on 2W);
Krown
BB W open/close medium line
usually implies the test of the upper line of the BB;
Krown
Safe trade with risk management; at least 2% move;
The Traveling Trader
OBV upmove / in concert with breakout of ascending triangle
https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531
STOCHs on 3D in Bear market
Krown and Bbas
3D STOCs:
in BearM calls the TOPs:
2018 Jan, March, May, Aug (July 27)
(2018 main bulltraps: March, May and Aug);
can call the BOTTOMs too, if high/violent swings:
2018 Feb, Apr, in whole June staying down, Aug 10
also called: 2018 Nov 24 bottom > price short swing up after but STOCs low > turned down again
also called: 2018 Dec 15 bottom > price 3000; turn up untill price 40002019 Jan (but not hit the very TOP)
also called: 2018 Feb bottom: since > curved up > hitting top in 2019 Apr again
important cross in 2019 Feb
50/89 EMA W >> 89 EMA W still rejected in 2019 Apr;
Krown
https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1160
important tests in 2019 Apr on M
10 SMA M and 21 EMA M > so far RES at 5200$;
Krown
equity generally BULL or BEAR
21 EMA on M (BTC under since 2018 NOV) in 2014 July under for long more than a year on BitStamp), tested 4 times > came up after the 4th 2015 Oct >> BULL; at that time did not play out as much, but beacuse BTC older now > has more weight than then; Krown
M general governer for 2019 spring
50 EMA M; broke down at the beginning of 2019 > if March close below > BEAR; if above > BULL; Krown
Total Crypto market CAP bulltrap or real PRICEACTION and VOL
21 EMA W could not break 3-4 times in 2014; in 2018 Apr: broke above the 21EMA W , but bulltrap (no significant VOL); 2019 Apr >> broke above with very convincing VOL; the orange line shows the average VOL for 21 W >> way above the average); we might cross 200 Bill psycho barrier (now at 176 bil), I do not get how the VOL be higher than the peak of 2018 Dec…) 2018 Nov 13 breakdown from descending triang 6000 > to bottom Dec 15 >> now went UP back to the 0.618 > might test even above 0.786 FIB (5500 USD??) this 0.618 is the TOP of a huge M orderblock orig from 2017 Sep-Oct;
Traveling Trader
https://youtu.be/hIC9JAwOh00?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=381
Total Crypto market CAP bulltrap or real RSI, MACD
the RSI on turned up from a downward channel > same level as before the 2015 run (from 2015 in an uprising channel)
MACD cross above; curving UP from oversold levels;
Traveling Trader
STOCHs on 3D in Bull market
Krown and Bbas
in BullM calls rather the BOTTOMs,
- *can stay UP for long in BullM**
- *..**
STOCH important warning sign (Moon)
Rising wedge on the STOCH > eventually break to the downside
e.g.: 2016 Nov: 30% correction
https://youtu.be/hTLUOMliwzo?t=518
BTC new sign would indicate for breaking down in 2019 Apr (Krown)
200 SMA W < if priceaction below this > bear, but not untill above (200SMA W: 3500$)
in 2019 Apr, price 5000 so we are above);
Krown
“alternative” signal showing the tops
Bitcoin NVT Signal, only on daily; in average it does stay up for a month, but it could be up for months too..
Kirby looks when the upward trendline breaks
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-nvt-signal/;
Krown
good indicator for judging the bottom
Bitcoin Network Momentum when gains momentum > the bottom is over, and for the next rally it creates a SUP line >> the next major top happened (hindsight) when it breaks down bellow that sup line (good indicator if we reached the top or not); the bottom is in when two things happen: gains momentum upwards (happening in 2019 spring) + breaks above the SUP line of the previous marketcycle) << not there yet;
Bitcoin Network Momentum: value transmitted through the Bitcoin blockchain denominated in BTC value plotted against Bitcoins **price**. It serves as a **leading** **indicator** of Bitcoin **bull** **market**s. Sufficiently high levels of value throughput is needed drive bull markets. Network Momentum, if it was corrected for Bitcoins expanding token supply, would essentially be Bitcoin Velocity. In other words an inverse chart of NVT Ratio. Liquid, Bitcoin`s first sidechain, went live 10 Oct 2018, taking volume off the main chain. Thus we can expect on-chain value throughput after this date to differ from previous baselines. Network Momentum is a view created by PositiveCrypto.
http://charts.woobull.com/bitcoin-network-momentum/;
Krown
https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1680
and indicator showing the bottom is already in (2019 Apr 07)
BCHAIN/MIREV QUANDL: the value of the mind BTC; Bitcoin Miners Revenue; Historical data showing (number of bitcoins mined per day + transaction fees) * market price; when we chart it: the top of a cycle creates a trendline for the next cycle and it will be the bottom of the next cycle (we reached in 2018 Dec) https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/QUANDL-BCHAIN/MIREV/; https://www.quandl.com/data/BCHAIN/MIREV-Bitcoin-Miners-Revenue;
Krown
https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1900
Krown’s rule on short: never short anything…
had a Golden Cross + above 21 EMA D (Litecoin in 2019 Apr < very bullish does it imply that the bottom already in?);
Krown
https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2020
Major market cycle characteristics for LTC in 2019 Apr
V shaped bottom, rally after with increasing VOL (despite of the Bearish warnings on RSI, STOCs);
Krown
https://youtu.be/SWvLgeAbf1c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=2043
TF when in time plays out
on the D TF >> play out maybe in a week, 4H TF > plays out in a day; W TF > plays out in a month;
Krown
Agressive priceaction on Weekly TF
2019 Apr
(Krown)
I think opinion only: next dip will be bought up > tries higher in a Month TF > than turns down (opinion does not count in trading); probably the pullback will be bought back quick > that creates the TOP around 5500
after the 2019 Apr breakout up; when priceaction approaches major HOR RESs, major MAs, overhead liquidities > caution!, especially Daily RSI divergence is concerning;
(Krown)
Bollinger Bands on W 2019 Apr (Krown) top/bottom band
Weekly candle closed above the top Bollinger Band (1st time since late 2017); when it closes above (or bellow) >> comes back, retest and continue; the bounce is expected, the continuation is questionable (now the retest level 4800-4900);
(Krown)
https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810
Bollinger Bands on W 2019 Apr (Krown) middle band
Weekly candle closed above the medium Bollinger Band 2019 March end (1st time since late 2017) >> Krown holds his longs a bit longer, signs a bit of a change; but the higher TF picture governs the macro changes, governing the marketcycles; people can get exuberant and irrational already now > that is the market wants you to be, create FOMO;
(Krown)
https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=810
STOCHs Krown trendline on BNB
STOCHs on D: Higher Lows >> all lows on a Trendline for 3-4 months > governing factor (technically creates an Ascending triangle on BNB 2019 Apr, but he does not look that way > he looks, if the UP-Trendline breaks > comes back down to the neutral zone > priceaction down..; BNB is the great runner from 2018 Nov;
(Krown)
https://youtu.be/c2E8OqydXiM?t=1159
RSI or STOCH RSI high/low (Moon)
Does not mean much >> they can stay for long. Enter into a trade when the momentum indicator not at the bottom/top, but started to shift. Impossible to call the bottom/top, with need to see when the momentum starts to shift > ride the momentum (2013 begining of the year Dec-March Apr: STOCH RSI W up on max > price 30x in the meantime; wait for the downcross;
Moon
RSI pattern (Moon)
Rising channel on D > when break downwards > correction; 4h HOR RES around 70, acts as RES in 2019 Apr (except a bigger fakeout on 2019 Apr 02, when big breakout UP); actually ranging between RSI 57 and 70 in a channel; in the meantime ChartChampion strategy is to trade an UPward rising channel, the bounces between the low and the highs within the range; breakout in the RSI > can lead to breaout in the priceaction as well; triangles also work with RSI; on 1h RSI divergence > did not lead to breakdown..; when Krown saw the D RSI divergence on the 9 Apr 2019 > considered the local top; he does not like the DIV on Daily; Mon https://youtu.be/hTLUOMliwzo?t=602
RSI pattern (sajat megfigyel)
I have the feeling, that when RSI not simply bouncing up/down, but start to print HIGHER LOWs > priceaction follows;
Bbas
NVT Kirby
NVT signal is lagging indicator, can take some time to play out (ellentmondas), but he wants to say, not when it goes up and turns to RED, but he uses trendlines on the way it goes up > when that trendline is broken with a sideways movement << better signal for calling the top; top when UP trendline of NVT signal is broken (only on Daily usefull);
Kirby
https://youtu.be/xO7u0J4ApXI?t=781
Mini capitatulation target how to find (W618)
W wave down from ATH (2017 Dec 22) >> FIB extension downwards > 1.618 ($6100) >> Bull Trap Top in 2018 March (Zero level for FIB ext) from Bottom of 2018 Apr (1 level for FIB ext) >> 1.618 takes us down to the 3000 level (2018 Dec 15) >> he likes that 1.618 was hit twice, symmetry;
Wave 618;
2019 Apr 11
https://youtu.be/aiibLUACFCo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl.https://www.tradingview.com/chart/MPapcOvO/
How we reached the bottom in 2014 (Wave618; 2019 Apr)
After the 1st wave down main W came down to 1.236, than X >> another major W: this extension 1.236 (Capitulation here); Symmetry; Wave 618; 2019 Apr 12 https://youtu.be/VOUq8OBtcGM?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=235
BTC count (TradeDevil; 2019 Apr)
The count is similar to the one of 2014, with some timeshifts; TradeDevil
https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=282 https://www.dropbox.com/s/ggpqifhgxj83ge3/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.50.09.png?dl=0
BTC algo reactions 2014 (TradeDevil; 2019 Apr)
Algo reactions from all swing high to swing low extensions; TradeDevil https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=541
https://www.dropbox.com/s/lt667lzippj7t1u/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.55.33.png?dl=0
BTC algo reactions 2018-19 (TradeDevil; 2019 Apr)
Algo reactions from all swing high to swing low extensions; TradeDevil
https://youtu.be/SbA5KjhRk8c?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=657https://www.dropbox.com/s/mx9nhvwtkaxdvat/Screenshot%202019-04-11%2022.56.51.png?dl=0
Charts which can exclude weekend data and what to see with it on BTC 2019 Apr
MT4, Esignal, Tradestation, NT8; For the MT4 chart he commonly uses:https://www.markets.com/ (Bot trading activity can corrupt the charts, we can see different levels, dimensions what can not be seen.2019 Apr after the breakout: BTC is above the 200 SMA on D on Tradingview, on MTF (he calls weekend eliminated chart) hugging (testing, but not above) the 200 SMA; important level: 2018 Feb bounced back from it; also testing key levels on W: 55 and 100 SMA (they almost crossed, but 55 MA just curved up (might have been only a kiss..) 21 SMA on M being tested; Alessio Rastani https://www.markets.com/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC04WfmZJh8&list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&index=5 MT4, Esignal, Tradestation, NT8; For the MT4 chart he commonly uses:https://www.markets.com/ (Bot trading activity can corrupt the charts, we can see different levels, dimensions what can not be seen.2019 Apr after the breakout: BTC is above the 200 SMA on D on Tradingview, on MTF (he calls weekend eliminated chart) hugging (testing, but not above) the 200 SMA; important level: 2018 Feb bounced back from it; also testing key levels on W: 55 and 100 SMA (they almost crossed, but 55 MA just curved up (might have been only a kiss..) 21 SMA on M being tested; Alessio Rastani https://www.markets.com/; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UC04WfmZJh8&list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&index=5
Breakout strategy RSC (Doc) indicators for breakouts; RSC One minute market
Great VOL!, Bollinger Bands: if the bands are squeezed > high probality of breakout (spot the price exceeding the upper band with good Vol, he also add Keltner Channels to the BB, when BBs get inside the Keltner channels > breakout, certain indicators built to show this squeeze effect; Chopiness index by far his favorit, high Chop indicates nonlinearity and imminent price movement; RSI in Laguerre time with Embedded Fractal ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/zcgfwLJGS1A?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl Great VOL!, Bollinger Bands: if the bands are squeezed > high probality of breakout (spot the price exceeding the upper band with good Vol, he also add Keltner Channels to the BB, when BBs get inside the Keltner channels > breakout, certain indicators built to show this squeeze effect; Chopiness index by far his favorit, high Chop indicates nonlinearity and imminent price movement; RSI in Laguerre time with Embedded Fractal ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/zcgfwLJGS1A?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl
Pullback strategy: RSC One minute market
PULLBack strategy when you buy the dip >> Oscillators: deeply oversold and crossed to the upside: STOCH, SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index), RSI in Laguerre Time (favourit): not based on linear time-series, most responses, signal when the RSI turns up from the oversold zone (CHOP_LRSI on TV); Doc likes to trade in the direction of the anchor chart swing (the larger TF) + Risk management; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM PULLBack strategy when you buy the dip >> Oscillators: deeply oversold and crossed to the upside: STOCH, SMI (Stochastic Momentum Index), RSI in Laguerre Time (favourit): not based on linear time-series, most responses, signal when the RSI turns up from the oversold zone (CHOP_LRSI on TV); Doc likes to trade in the direction of the anchor chart swing (the larger TF) + Risk management; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM
Trading View strategies: many different altenatives RSC One minute market
On TV many strategies: Greedy strategy, Inside bar strategy, Keltner Channel strategy, Momentum strategy, Parabolic SAR strategy (vagy Outside bar not sure which indicated); ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM On TV many strategies: Greedy strategy, Inside bar strategy, Keltner Channel strategy, Momentum strategy, Parabolic SAR strategy (vagy Outside bar not sure which indicated); ; RSC One minute market https://youtu.be/4HxmqQB-gxM
2019 Apr; 4200 and 4500 already taken out >> what is next RES?
Kirby sees an Ascending triangle (Flat top and HLs) on 4H < Bullish pattern, I rather feel, this is a Rising Wedge, but very close; concern: RSI is overbought and H&S pattern; bullish priceaction, bearish pattern on RSI on 4H and D (overbought) and on W (hitting the RES of the SUP zone of the parabolic previous cycle); if price moves up target: 5450 (the Res upwards for the potential break up in 2019 Apr (5450 is a consolidation range during the 2018 Nov breakdown); 5450: RES in priceaction, multiple RESs on RSI, NVT signal TOP red zone; 4200 and 4500 already taken out; 5450 zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks on 4H > BOTs and market makers taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); not Bull market yet: 1: two RES zones (5450 and 6000), under the 50 MA W and the 100 MA W; RSI W hitting the RES zone of 2016-2017 SUP; ; Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=904 Kirby sees an Ascending triangle (Flat top and HLs) on 4H < Bullish pattern, I rather feel, this is a Rising Wedge, but very close; concern: RSI is overbought and H&S pattern; bullish priceaction, bearish pattern on RSI on 4H and D (overbought) and on W (hitting the RES of the SUP zone of the parabolic previous cycle); if price moves up target: 5450 (the Res upwards for the potential break up in 2019 Apr (5450 is a consolidation range during the 2018 Nov breakdown); 5450: RES in priceaction, multiple RESs on RSI, NVT signal TOP red zone; 4200 and 4500 already taken out; 5450 zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks on 4H > BOTs and market makers taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); not Bull market yet: 1: two RES zones (5450 and 6000), under the 50 MA W and the 100 MA W; RSI W hitting the RES zone of 2016-2017 SUP; ; Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=904
BOTs and algos taking this range of the candles (Kirbys observation on 4H only??)
zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks > BOTs and algos taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=905 zone is rather the candle body and the lower wicks > BOTs and algos taking them rather than the tops (Kirbys observation on 4H only??); Kirby https://youtu.be/dc3vxrgrnYA?t=905
Easyest buy/sell indicator
50 SMA on W (on BitSTAMP and on Total Market CAP Excluding ! BTC (TV) on the latter: 2015 middle crossed up, came down, crossed back above less, came down, crossed up less later > korbetancolta majd >> crossed up and full BULL from 2016; Haejin Lee; Tons more analysis on my blog: https://steemit.com/@haejin For Real Time Alerts, follow me on Twitter: @haejin_crypto https://youtu.be/aiibLUACFCo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl. 50 SMA on W (on BitSTAMP and on Total Market CAP Excluding ! BTC (TV) on the latter: 2015 middle crossed up, came down, crossed back above less, came down, crossed up less later > korbetancolta majd >> crossed up and full BULL from 2016; Haejin Lee; Tons more analysis on my blog: https://steemit.com/@haejin For Real Time Alerts, follow me on Twitter: @haejin_crypto https://youtu.be/aiibLUACFCo?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl.
The best evidence that the bearmarket was over shown to Tone Ways 2019 Apr
Miners Revenue (MIREV), not enough, in 2015 it was hugging, holding the previous cycle high RES for long > we might get back to this RES line;
Consolidation pattern breakouts, how to manage (dobe4ever)
2018 Dec- 2019 March an ascending triangle formed > breakout up on Apr 02 >> another ascending triangle like pattern forming (it looked very wedgy though, depending on the market/looks asc triang on BitStamp): possible breakout from this > before trading WAIT for VOLUME CONFIRMATION! : sell off on Apr 10 > seemed that break out down from the wedge pattern, but she things, that no breakout happened, because the declining VOL simply remained under the (orange) average line; declining volume during the pattern > consolidation, it might seemed that we broke out of the triangle, but NO Breakout if NO VOL >> simply the consolidation continues in a different pattern; dobe4ever Apr 11, 2019
https://www.dropbox.com/s/u1jsj2lvcto8rg1/Screenshot%202019-04-13%2020.56.54.png?dl=0
What to do after a breakout hanging in the air like in 2019 Apr — RSC (Doc)
Measure the swing on two timeframes (W & D, from where the weekly swing strated and from where the daily swing started > to the top): find confluence: W F0.382 and D F0.5 confluence > VPVR shows empty space under the confluence). Range extension to the upside > followed by range expansion on he top, pull back, but what pull back is still ok? > remain long untill pullback to the confluence of FIBs (empty space under and lose the Fib SUP if price goes lower > great chance to drop a lot ;
https://youtu.be/FJkKgvlsBiM?t=157
https://www.dropbox.com/s/typ0v3g0lm743ip/Screenshot%202019-04-14%2000.10.41.png?dl=0
FED meetings
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): two day policy meetings: 2019 Apr 30-May01, June 18-19, July 30-31, Sep 17-18, Oct 29-30, Dec 10-11, Jan 28-29 2019: interest rate decisions (most latom, hogy vannak mas meeting ip-ontok is… Arthur Hayes (Bitmex ceo hongkong) > policy makers will keep the IRs high, wont let the economy down > stock market further rally > strong speculative crupto market;
Crypto Crew University argument for bull market in 2019 middle of Apr on D and M
After the big drop to 3k > sharp bounce back, consolidation > retest that high with a move up, slight move down and a big impulse up: Higher high (in 2018 only LHs) << above 200 SMA (not been above since 2018 March, only before the the death-cross); 50/200 SMA Golden cross approaching on D; momentum changed on M: STOCH cross up and MACD histogram turned upwards; Crypto Crew University https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8
Crypto Crew University checkmarks to enter into a Bullmarket
Priceaction above 200 SMA on D, Golden cross 50/200 SMA on D; but it can be short lived (like in 2015 fell bellow again and stayed for months); 3rd criteria: 200 SMA D must hold as SUP (since the 2nd GC (1st GC was a fake out) priceaction was above it, maybe touched only once, next cross bellow 2018 Feb at 8k);
Crypto Crew University checkmarks to enter into a Bear-market
Priceaction bellow 200 SMA on D, Death cross 50/200 SMA on D; 200 SMA D must hold as RES ?;
Crypto Crew University argument for bull market in 2019 middle of Apr on W
After the big drop to 3k hit the 200 SMA W, held, price action went above 20 SMA, now hitting 50 SMA (maybe rejection); market structure similar to the one in 2015: bottom capitulation > testing 20 SMA fail , but 200 SMA held (two times) > price above 20 SMA, but 50 SMA W rejects (2015 July, RSI rejected at 58 level, like in 2019 Apr similar 50 SMA rejection+RSI rejection)> drop back to 200 SMA W, held but large wicks down (2015 Aug) > 3 months later: 2015 Oct cross above 50 SMA, way above since, 20 SMA held on the uptrend; https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8?t=997
https://www.dropbox.com/s/7vrw9h60hk65owd/Screenshot%202019-04-17%2023.19.37.png?dl=0
Crypto Crew University argument for bull market in 2019 middle of Apr on RSI
2015 July: 50 SMA W rejects after running up from 200 SMA W bounce, RSI rejected at 58 level as well, in 2019 Apr similar 50 SMA rejection + RSI rejection at 58); STOCH RSI was 100 and curved down (2019 Apr up max, staying sideways move both lines)
https://youtu.be/abzL9u03YF8?t=1113
https://www.dropbox.com/s/c7p8g1lsxcut3bz/Screenshot%202019-04-17%2023.35.25.png?dl=0
Three key steps to bitcoin as a store of value. DataDash
Historical Volatility (HV) (average deviation from the average price in general, more spec for this: how far prices move away from a central average (moving average) (much lower now on W around 100, used to be ~200); Rate of return: profit on an investment in a period of time (expressed as a proportion of the original investment) > decreasing max 20x expected from 3k level next cycle, but probably less drop too..; adaption;
https://youtu.be/S5_vg2E9kt0?t=33
Instead of Predictin Bitcoin’s Price –Chris Dunn
Plan if scenarios: go to the market, design buying/shorting plans when setups are ripe > let it ride or stop out; he did not miss the great breakout on Apr 2; either take proffesional approach/mindset or do not trade/invest; no opinion, no ego if you are wright/wrong, just examine the opportunities; Planing for all possible outcomes instead of guessing what will happen > needs different market orders when you are away (limit orders). I was led by bearish opinions with the warming feelings with a minimal price entry when we hit the bottom, I did not realize the MACD/RSI/STOCH momentum changes on the HTs > moved up in 2019 Jan-Apr (I thought it was just a huge correction and even bigger would come << for that we need a huge tension to be accumulated and preparation from the marketmakers to let it happen).; https://youtu.be/B35dO5zl-Dk
OBV upmove / in concert with breaout of ascending triangle
safe trade with risk management; at least 2% move;
The Traveling Trader
https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531
