trading workbook set of considerations rules Flashcards
EMA Ribbon across different timeframes
there is a (up) trend channel on 15m TF >
ribbon holds up (every time when hitting the bottom bounce back up) > until does NOT = breaks down, out of the ribbon > can be an indication of the break of the entire trend > switch to a higher TF:
1h > follow how it goes there, to see when it breaks downwards, when it breaks out of that ribbon channel > step up to a higher TF
Moon
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1d3auq6aeclqj36/Screenshot%202019-04-12%2023.33.46.png?dl=0
How to manage Swing trade based on MAs
Golden cross: 55/200 EMA (4H)?
8/13/21/55/100/200 EMAs FAN out on the right order; example:
2019 Feb: BTC 200 EMA had been RES for priceaction for long time > breakout UP > changed the order of MAs but not much FAN out > 2nd BO: FAN out: BUY SIGNAL > 3rd BO but imm break downwards: not much, so order not changed, but MAs sqeezed >> BO > FANout again;
Philakone https://youtu.be/6c03-l_9VAQ?t=196
How to manage Swing trade based on MACD and FIB
2018 Nov 14 (6300) - 2018 Dec 15 (3100) BTC selloff >> swing high/low;
2019 Apr breakout back to the 0.618F of swing high/low; (12H and 4H TFs)
candles: long wicks up some started, spinning top candle,
MACD histogram downtick (4H);
RSI divergence downwards (4H) >> warning signs;
spinning top candle
long wicks both UP/DOWN,
can be Bull/Bear both,
both the bulls and the bears tried to push, but neither managed to hold >> reversal candle (if at the bottom in a downtrend >> BULL; if at the top in an uptrend >> BEAR);
First real HH on BTC after 2018 BearMarket by Kirby
2019 Apr 2: definitive, big breakout
it was a further UP after weeks of up rally with great VOL;
ascending triangle like consolidatin from 2018 Dec 15;
still in overall bearish structure, but already broken two important RES lines with the same move up: 4200 and 4500-600 > will hold as SUP?;
3 keylines to end the baermarket: 4200, 4500 and 6000, but not enough confirmation for bearmarket end;
Kirby
Kirby MA W in 2018 Apr
200 MA on W: twice bounced up already (in 2015 the bounce up was the end of the bearmarket); but bearish cross of 50/100 SMA W (in 2019 Feb) and 50MA comes rapidly downwards to be tested.. https://youtu.be/-7rlmrrnczo?t=371; Kirby
Kirby MA D right after the 2019 Apr breakout UP
BULLish cross on 50/100 MA D >> better look than weekly; above the 200 MA on D << last time over a year ago!
Kirby
Kirby after breakout behaviour important how the breakout can create room for movements
breakout up > hit a top > correction down > move back up but but only test the old RES so this move can not go beyond the previous H to create a HH >> will test downwards to the down RES box (0.618 level -of 6300 to 3100 breakdown- now); untill we consolidate above it and use it as SUP > still BULLish since we broke the BEAR structure >> untill we stay above it is fine: measure the diff between the up RES box and down SUP: 20% in 2019 Apr > if bouncing up and down amazing trading opportunity https://youtu.be/-7rlmrrnczo?t=520; Kirby
Transaction related info
The average number of transactions per block << new ATH in 2019 Apr
<< on blockchain.com
Moon
https://www.blockchain.com/charts/n-transactions-per-block?timespan=all
Block for BTC
Blocks are files where data pertaining to the Bitcoin network is permanently recorded. A block records some or all of the most recent Bitcoin transactions that have not yet entered any prior blocks. Thus a block is like a page of a ledger or record book.
Google trends
Google trends search for bitcoin: perfect sell/buy monthly signals.
Kirby
https://youtu.be/3bib5wHwuHk?t=1083
STOCH RSI on W
STOCH RSI trendline governing force for priceaction for 900 ? days;
Crypto Crew Univ
https://youtu.be/xStxjNwFlUI?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=1530
MA on W how to judge BULL vs BEAR market
20 SMA W
SUP in BullM
Res in BearM
20 SMA W if break out with decisive VOL!! 21 EMA W??;
moon
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=480
which MA was RES/SUP on the bearmarket at the beginning of 2019
200 EMA W strong Res in BearM 2018 Dec-2019 March ; in 2019 Apr about to break up above
200 SMA W SUP in BearM 2018 Dec-2019 March
moon
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=530
Volume decline difference (BitStamp, Coinbase, Bitfinex)
BitSTAMP, Coinbase, (Bitfinex) declining Vol with incr price in 2019 March,
Binancenot much,BITMEX not really;
moon
https://youtu.be/8iOiEqM-5dE?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=688
good marker for sell in 2018 bearM
RSI W: in consolidation period (2018 July-Nov: BTC above 6000)
RSI W: in consolidation period (2018 July-Nov: BTC above 6000) > weekly RSI on a SUP line > after turning into RES: 2019 coming back to retest > brutal break above in 2019 Apr
Krown not an RSI person, but still prefers to BolingerBands;
Krown
BTC CME Futures
More weight on CME than on Spot markets, the question where CME closes w/r/t spots > gap filling;
Krown
Weekend priceaction
not convincing, not by the profs, Futures are closed for the weekends; CME more important how it closes on Friday > weekend Bullish priceaction would be less important;
Krown
Rising wedge
Typically implies bearish nature (Vol signature declining) and bearish divergence or RSI formation (LHs vagy vmi wedgy like formation jobbra keskenyedo); 2 days after this there was a huge inpulse up on BTC 2019 Apr 02
Krown
Beartrap candle Krown
Candle bellow the SUP (Trendline) with very low VOL ( Immidiately bought up next day) Beartrap; usually countertrend coming soon;
Krown
Holding SUP but rejected on the 200 SMA on 4H: what to think?
look at STOCH:
if 4H STOCH up > more chance to break up through (around RES and just turn around the STOCHs > good sign);
Krown
around the RES what to think
priceaction around RES
if the STOCHs just turn around > good sign;
Krown
RSI (D) in consolditation period
if RSI in bearish neutral zone in consolditation period > rather bearish consolidation
Krown
nagy erofeszites and kis eredmeny > nem tul biztato; Krown
RSI (W) in consolidation period is increasing but price little increase
(still there was a huge breakout up in 2019 Apr 02)
GBTC priceaction effect on BTC
GBTC leads and precipitates Spot prices; Krown
MA
governing RES for BTC
from 2018 Feb
10 SMA on 2W
governing RES for BTC
2018 Feb - 2019 March (breakout above),
no open and close above it; 2019 March first time again to open/close above! > new behavior;
but 21/50 EMA 2W crossed down recently 2019 Apr;
Krown
21/50 EMA 2W cross down
bad sign; getting away > more divergence from each other > momentum even greater very bad sign;
Krown
2019 March-Apr price action on MAs
Krown
10 SMA on 2W open/close above + 21/50 EMA 2W crossed down: strongly bearish, but test above the upper RES (in this case 89 EMA on 2W);
Krown
BB W open/close medium line
usually implies the test of the upper line of the BB;
Krown
Safe trade with risk management; at least 2% move;
The Traveling Trader
OBV upmove / in concert with breakout of ascending triangle
https://youtu.be/3YJ7lsp1Kis?list=PLya0RSwza9DQx3psP36G-7LxekpJvAjBl&t=531